Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You're right. Consumers are driving it. That is how it's supposed to be. Not Washington picking the winners and losers! Turns out that they are not very good at it. Solindra for example. Solar and wind both may have a future, but they are not ready for prime time yet no matter what you think about the oil companies. Some of the posters here display a lack of real world savvy. Simple truth is that for now there is no cheaper to power this planet than fossil fuels, even at four bucks a gallon. The government can't force it o be, only the consumers can. Welcome to capitalism, the system that has lifted more people out of poverty than any other. No it's not perfect, but this isn't a perfect world. Utopia is a pipe dream.


Doug, what's the criteria for being "ready for prime time"?

And can you list a few technologies which have matured on their own with no help from the government?

Finally, can you explain to me how a 50 MPG gasmobile running on $2/gallon gas is cheaper to drive than an EV that uses 0.35kWh/mile of $0.10/kWh electricity?

I've clearly got my thinking all messed up and would love to understand where I've gone wrong....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys I don't know about you but I can see that alot moisture has developed in the Caribbean in the past 48 hours and is depicted on the MIMIC-TPW very well Link

Hey wunderkidcayman......how are the conditions there in Cayman?
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Quoting SPLbeater:
night all

Good night!
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375. wxmod
Oh, and I almost forgot. Here's a MODIS photo of the smog of Chongqing.

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well guys I don't know about you but I can see that alot moisture has developed in the Caribbean in the past 48 hours and is depicted on the MIMIC-TPW very well Link
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Quoting SPLbeater:


and i am not familiar with the word semester since i aint in publis schewl, so i assume that means end of session or somethin? lol


Yeah, 2 semester in a year. Dude, you are really missing out on the best part of your life being homeschooled...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
Quoting HouGalv08:
The consumer is driving the change, or at least part of it. GM reported small cars at 30mpg or better now making 45% of thier sales, Ford expected to post appx the same numbers tomorrow. This in response to $4 or better a gallon of gas. Chrysler to report 16% sales where they used to rely 100% on truck sales to make a profit.



You're right. Consumers are driving it. That is how it's supposed to be. Not Washington picking the winners and losers! Turns out that they are not very good at it. Solindra for example. Solar and wind both may have a future, but they are not ready for prime time yet no matter what you think about the oil companies. Some of the posters here display a lack of real world savvy. Simple truth is that for now there is no cheaper way to power this planet than fossil fuels, even at four bucks a gallon. The government can't force it to be, only the consumers can. Welcome to capitalism, the system that has lifted more people out of poverty than any other. No it's not perfect, but this isn't a perfect world. Utopia is a pipe dream.
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night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting SPLbeater:


and i am not familiar with the word semester since i aint in publis schewl, so i assume that means end of session or somethin? lol

Semester refers to two terms in a school's calendar year
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369. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo Dazhou, China. Today, and almost every day.

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Quoting nigel20:

That's good news...I'm fine...just a bit busy as it's nearing the end of the semester


and i am not familiar with the word semester since i aint in publis schewl, so i assume that means end of session or somethin? lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
367. wxmod
Smog, China. Today. MODIS satellite photo. 200 miles wide.

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Quoting IceCoast:


TAwx13 has got the gist of it but knowing how hail forms should help further. Hail begins as water droplets in the cloud, and as they rise become supercooled. In order for the frozen raindrops or to grow into hailstones, they must accumulate additional ice, a process called accretion. To do so, the hail embryo must spend time in cloud regions rich in supercooled water, a layer where temperatures are below the 32F. Typically the freezing layer is to high in the atmosphere in the tropics for hail formation. This is also why we must be careful when using radar to identify hail in different regions.

Thanks for the info surrounding the formation of hail
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365. wxmod
A quarter of the world's population lives constantly under thick coal smog. How could you be a rice farmer when you couldn't breathe well enough to shovel your dirt?


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Quoting SPLbeater:


nothin much at the moment, feel good after bringing my math grade up 6 points:)

how u doin?

That's good news...I'm fine...just a bit busy as it's nearing the end of the semester
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Quoting nigel20:

what's up TAwx13.....why is it less likely to produce hail in tropical regions....is it because the cloud layers are not as cold as those in the US and elsewhere?


TAwx13 has got the gist of it but knowing how hail forms should help further. Hail begins as water droplets in the cloud, and as they rise become supercooled. In order for the frozen raindrops or to grow into hailstones, they must accumulate additional ice, a process called accretion. To do so, the hail embryo must spend time in cloud regions rich in supercooled water, a layer where temperatures are below the 32F. Typically the freezing layer is to high in the atmosphere in the tropics for hail formation. This is also why we must be careful when using radar to identify hail in different regions.
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362. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Storm Force Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE (19F)
12:00 PM NZST April 3 2012
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Daphne (985 hPa) located at 27.8S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
within 90 NM from the center in the sector from north though east to southeast and 30 NM of the center in the sector from southeast through southwest to north


Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant and within 120 NM of center in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 300 NM of center in the sector from northwest through northeast to east

The next Storm Warning from TCWC Wellington will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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Quoting BobWallace:


Interesting things are happening. Coal has dropped from supplying over 55% of our electricity to now under 40%. Coal's a dead man walking. We're going to be closing coal plants and we aren't building any.

(There are a very small number being completed that were started a few years ago.)

Wind generated about 3% of our electricity this year and we're seeing Republican governors pushing on Washington to maintain support for building more wind farms.

In January 2010 there were 783,000 jobs in the oil, gas, and coal-mining industries. There were 3.1 million jobs in green technology. That's more than 3x the number of workers looking out for their future working in greentech.

The tide is turning. Renewable energy is starting to get political power. The power of fossil fuel industries will fade.

There was a very interesting interview on NPR this morning. Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx said that he thinks we are about three years away from electric vehicles with 200 mile range and costs 25% to 40% less than what they are today.

That would mean a Nissan Leaf which would cost $21,120 t0 $26,400 and go 200 miles before it need a charge. It would be hundreds of dollars per month cheaper to purchase and drive than a $20,000 30MPG gasmobile.

If/when we get an option like that in our dealerships oil companies suck air.

(With a 200 mile range you can drive all day with a couple of short, ~20 minute, stops. Drive 200 miles, charge 20 minutes, drive 180, charge 20, drive 180. 560 miles with two breaks.)

He also said that within a very few years local delivery will be EV and PHEVs trucks. It's 75% cheaper to operate them than the diesel units used today. Seventy-five percent cheaper.

Oil companies do not build cars. Oil companies do not own battery patents. Oil companies will not be able to stop this big change coming.



Great post. I believe once the changeover from fuel-powered cars to electric vehicles really gets going it will probably occur at an exponential rate. I wouldn't be surprised if in 15 years over 50% of the cars on the road are electric. I already know I'm buying one in about 6 or 7 years... :)

Also, I wonder if electric cars are going to need much less maintenance? There isn't any reason why they wouldn't last for at least 500,000km!
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, if you think about it, your question pretty much answers itself. Hail doesn't typically occur deep in the tropics because typically there is warm air aloft, whereas hail formation requires cold air aloft.


replies like this make me wonder, who the heck can send you a message saying your input sucks:D

we oughtta send them a psychiatrist lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting nigel20:

What's up SPL?


nothin much at the moment, feel good after bringing my math grade up 6 points:)

how u doin?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, if you think about it, your question pretty much answers itself. Hail doesn't typically occur deep in the tropics because typically there is warm air aloft, whereas hail formation requires cold air aloft.

Your input is still appreciated
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320 blsealevel: New Tornado Warning System [video] Link

Also of interest, a following video about GlobalWeirding.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting BobWallace:


Interesting things are happening. Coal has dropped from supplying over 55% of our electricity to now under 40%. Coal's a dead man walking. We're going to be closing coal plants and we aren't building any.

(There are a very small number being completed that were started a few years ago.)

Wind generated about 3% of our electricity this year and we're seeing Republican governors pushing on Washington to maintain support for building more wind farms.

In January 2010 there were 783,000 jobs in the oil, gas, and coal-mining industries. There were 3.1 million jobs in green technology. That's more than 3x the number of workers looking out for their future working in greentech.

The tide is turning. Renewable energy is starting to get political power. The power of fossil fuel industries will fade.

There was a very interesting interview on NPR this morning. Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx said that he thinks we are about three years away from electric vehicles with 200 mile range and costs 25% to 40% less than what they are today.

That would mean a Nissan Leaf which would cost $21,120 t0 $26,400 and go 200 miles before it need a charge. It would be hundreds of dollars per month cheaper to purchase and drive than a $20,000 30MPG gasmobile.

If/when we get an option like that in our dealerships oil companies suck air.

(With a 200 mile range you can drive all day with a couple of short, ~20 minute, stops. Drive 200 miles, charge 20 minutes, drive 180, charge 20, drive 180. 560 miles with two breaks.)

He also said that within a very few years local delivery will be EV and PHEVs trucks. It's 75% cheaper to operate them than the diesel units used today. Seventy-five percent cheaper.

Oil companies do not build cars. Oil companies do not own battery patents. Oil companies will not be able to stop this big change coming.

The consumer is driving the change, or at least part of it. GM reported small cars at 30mpg or better now making 45% of thier sales, Ford expected to post appx the same numbers tomorrow. This in response to $4 or better a gallon of gas. Chrysler to report 16% sales where they used to rely 100% on truck sales to make a profit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


Interesting things are happening. Coal has dropped from supplying over 55% of our electricity to now under 40%. Coal's a dead man walking. We're going to be closing coal plants and we aren't building any.

(There are a very small number being completed that were started a few years ago.)

Wind generated about 3% of our electricity this year and we're seeing Republican governors pushing on Washington to maintain support for building more wind farms.

In January 2010 there were 783,000 jobs in the oil, gas, and coal-mining industries. There were 3.1 million jobs in green technology. That's more than 3x the number of workers looking out for their future working in greentech.

The tide is turning. Renewable energy is starting to get political power. The power of fossil fuel industries will fade.

There was a very interesting interview on NPR this morning. Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx said that he thinks we are about three years away from electric vehicles with 200 mile range and costs 25% to 40% less than what they are today.

That would mean a Nissan Leaf which would cost $21,120 t0 $26,400 and go 200 miles before it need a charge. It would be hundreds of dollars per month cheaper to purchase and drive than a $20,000 30MPG gasmobile.

If/when we get an option like that in our dealerships oil companies suck air.

(With a 200 mile range you can drive all day with a couple of short, ~20 minute, stops. Drive 200 miles, charge 20 minutes, drive 180, charge 20, drive 180. 560 miles with two breaks.)

He also said that within a very few years local delivery will be EV and PHEVs trucks. It's 75% cheaper to operate them than the diesel units used today. Seventy-five percent cheaper.

Oil companies do not build cars. Oil companies do not own battery patents. Oil companies will not be able to stop this big change coming.


That's the way to go....no questions about that
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Quoting nigel20:

what's up TAwx13.....why is it less likely to produce hail in tropical regions....is it because the cloud layers are not as cold as those in the US and elsewhere?

Well, if you think about it, your question pretty much answers itself. Hail doesn't typically occur deep in the tropics because typically there is warm air aloft, whereas hail formation requires cold air aloft.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chucktown:


It would be great to "get our mouths off the fossil fuel spigot", but you know as well as I do, it ain't gonna happen anytime soon. Government means well when it talks about all these alternative fuel sources and "kind of" pushing us towards hybrid vehicles, but as long as the oil giants run this planet, not much is going to change.


Interesting things are happening. Coal has dropped from supplying over 55% of our electricity to now under 40%. Coal's a dead man walking. We're going to be closing coal plants and we aren't building any.

(There are a very small number being completed that were started a few years ago.)

Wind generated about 3% of our electricity this year and we're seeing Republican governors pushing on Washington to maintain support for building more wind farms.

In January 2010 there were 783,000 jobs in the oil, gas, and coal-mining industries. There were 3.1 million jobs in green technology. That's more than 3x the number of workers looking out for their future working in greentech.

The tide is turning. Renewable energy is starting to get political power. The power of fossil fuel industries will fade.

There was a very interesting interview on NPR this morning. Fred Smith, CEO of FedEx said that he thinks we are about three years away from electric vehicles with 200 mile range and costs 25% to 40% less than what they are today.

That would mean a Nissan Leaf which would cost $21,120 t0 $26,400 and go 200 miles before it need a charge. It would be hundreds of dollars per month cheaper to purchase and drive than a $20,000 30MPG gasmobile.

If/when we get an option like that in our dealerships oil companies suck air.

(With a 200 mile range you can drive all day with a couple of short, ~20 minute, stops. Drive 200 miles, charge 20 minutes, drive 180, charge 20, drive 180. 560 miles with two breaks.)

He also said that within a very few years local delivery will be EV and PHEVs trucks. It's 75% cheaper to operate them than the diesel units used today. Seventy-five percent cheaper.

Oil companies do not build cars. Oil companies do not own battery patents. Oil companies will not be able to stop this big change coming.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SteveDa1:


In my opinion, solar power is the only way to go. Nuclear is a gamble... it's clean until something catastrophic happens and I don't like the odds. Why take the chance? Solar power is 100% clean and virtually abundant.

Agreed
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With squall lines, you sometimes have to worry about quick spinup tornadoes. That seems to be the case here, or it could just simply be convergence.

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Quoting Ameister12:

Wow! Just did. These storms are very intense.

Well ya know, in Texas we just have ta grow em bigger than anyone else. Texans don't like to admit it, but we have size issues.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, these really are massive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This line is capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, and the stronger cells within the line are capable of producing hail larger than the size of golf balls. Expect to start seeing the reports roll in.




what's up TAwx13.....why is it less likely to produce hail in tropical regions....is it because the cloud layers are not as cold as those in the US and elsewhere?
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I found a special warning... descriptive...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
846 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

TXC207-447-030200-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120403T0200Z/
HASKELL TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
846 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN THROCKMORTON AND EAST CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTIES...

AT 844 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IRBY...OR 9
MILES EAST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
VEHICLE DINGS...
MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
MINOR FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
IRBY BY 855 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 9968 3333 9937 3308 9925 3302 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 14KT 3315 9958

$$
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Quoting weatherh98:


1) when it's hot I'm turning the ac on.
2) if what I believe I learned about nuclear power plants is correct they are clean if you keep the radioactivity inside. The water that is used I think is either recondensed or put into the atmosphere, etheir way it is clean and efficient because if you reuse it you don't need any more than when you start, or if it's pumped out, it rises and condenses and then rains.
3) the amount of groundwater, If we were to bring everything to the surface, would add to the oceans and COVER the peak of MT. EVEREST. And yes a lot of it is fresh.
4) technology will advance at a rate to where we WILL NOT be reliant on fossil fuels nearly as much by 2050, and if you are wondering a report has been published that if we has to, the united states could live at least 100 years on anything we have under our feet.


In my opinion, solar power is the only way to go. Nuclear is a gamble... it's clean until something catastrophic happens and I don't like the odds. Why take the chance? Solar power is 100% clean and virtually abundant.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody else noticed this linear explosion of thunderstorms?


Wow! Just did. These storms are very intense.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, these really are massive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This line is capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, and the stronger cells within the line are capable of producing hail larger than the size of golf balls. Expect to start seeing the reports roll in.





Woooowwww those are big hahaha
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Quoting nigel20:

What happens when a nuclear power plan is damaged such as the one in Japan and release radioactive matter......what then? I don't thin kwe can ever say that nuclear energy is safe


No but it's is clean if kept under wraps and quite efficient
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lol, these really are massive Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This line is capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 70 mph, and the stronger cells within the line are capable of producing hail larger than the size of golf balls. Expect to start seeing the reports roll in.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody else noticed this linear explosion of thunderstorms?

I saw it. Central TX is supposed to get into the game after midnight.

I'm trying to figure out how to protect the veggies from potential golfball sized hail.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
You guys think this Severe Thunderstorm Warning is big enough?
-----------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN DONLEY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
HEMPHILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERN LIPSCOMB COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
SOUTHERN OCHILTREE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
WHEELER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 828 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 31 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WOLF CREEK PARK TO LUTIE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14
MILES SOUTH OF SPEARMAN TO 8 MILES NORTH OF WELLINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAMNORWOOD...
DODSON...
WHEELER...
TWITTY...
SHAMROCK...
MOBEETIE...
NEW MOBEETIE...
MIAMI...
LUTIE...
LORA...
LELA...
KELLERVILLE...
CODMAN...
CANADIAN...
BRISCOE...
ALLISON...
DOZIER...
WOLF CREEK PARK...
LAKE MARVIN...
GLAZIER...
WELLINGTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

&&
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Quoting weatherh98:


1) when it's hot I'm turning the ac on.
2) if what I believe I learned about nuclear power plants is correct they are clean if you keep the radioactivity inside. The water that is used I think is either recondensed or put into the atmosphere, etheir way it is clean and efficient because if you reuse it you don't need any more than when you start, or if it's pumped out, it rises and condenses and then rains.
3) the amount of groundwater, If we were to bring everything to the surface, would add to the oceans and COVER the peak of MT. EVEREST. And yes a lot of it is fresh.
4) technology will advance at a rate to where we WILL NOT be reliant on fossil fuels nearly as much by 2050, and if you are wondering a report has been published that if we has to, the united states could live at least 100 years on anything we have under our feet.

What happens when a nuclear power plan is damaged such as the one in Japan and release radioactive matter......what then? I don't thin kwe can ever say that nuclear energy is safe
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Has anybody else noticed this linear explosion of thunderstorms?

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Quoting SPLbeater:

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT MON APR 02 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY THUR MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...SWLY FLOW WILL PUSH A DRYLINE EWD TO CNTRL MO/AR BY 00Z TRAILING SWWD INTO N CNTRL TX. LOWER TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW.

TO THE E...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NERN U.S. WITH WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER VA AND NC...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MT INTO CNTRL NV BY 00Z. WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME ALONG AND W OF THE FRONT.

...VA INTO NC...
A NW FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST WITH A COLD FRONT OVER SRN VA INTO WRN NC BY AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CREATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY ACROSS SRN OH...ERN KY AND WV WHICH COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. NEW ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT. MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD CREATE A SEWD MOVING MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS...PORTIONS OF ERN VA AND NC COULD REQUIRE A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY WED MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND/OR SOME HAIL AS IT CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WITH THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD EWD...WITH DECREASING STORM CHANCES OVER AR...LA...AND WRN MS.

..JEWELL.. 04/02/2012
-----------------------------------------------
sounds fun, lol

What's up SPL?
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Quoting wxmod:
China (top) and south Asia (bottom) Each of these satellite photos are about 800 miles by 500 miles. The smog is brownish gray and gray -- there is nothing else except google map lines. These areas are HUGE and the photos do not cover all of the smog there is in Asia and China. Folks, this is the worlds worst environmental disaster and it is going to kill all of us unless we all do everything we can to correct it.



Mind blowing amounts of pollution there.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting entrelac:
My very first question upon watching this is "where is his funding coming from?". A quick search using my Google-fu turns up ExxonMobil.

I am shocked, shocked to find out an oil company would fund anti-science propaganda...


...again.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares? Do you think people that are struggling to put food on their table and pay their mortgage while paying $4.50 for a gallon of gas care about this. Hey, I'm all for conservation and saving Mother Earth, but it just not at the top of most peoples agenda.

Food for thought - if the previous generations had taken Peak Oil/cutting our dependence on fossil fuels seriously instead of kicking the can down the road we wouldn't be paying $4.50/gallon and even if we were it wouldn't be such a hardship because we'd have cheaper cleaner alternatives.

Quoting Chucktown:


It may or may not, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. If there is a drastic consequence to this, it won't occur overnight. Future generations may have to deal with it, but I believe mankind is a durable species and will find a way to survive.
Thank you Scarlett O'Hara. Not all of us are comfortable thinking about it tomorrow.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
I retire on that note... These storms have a ton of lightning
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Quoting Bergeron:


Link
My very first question upon watching this is "where is his funding coming from?". A quick search using my Google-fu turns up ExxonMobil.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting BobWallace:


Right.

Now go read up on what life would have been like for humans had we been on the planet during the hottest and coldest periods.
Quoting BobWallace:


Right.

Now go read up on what life would have been like for humans had we been on the planet during the hottest and coldest periods.


Don't take what i said out of context did I say intelligent life? Multi cellular life, maybe you didn't understand me LIFE will indure, on some sea vent under the ocean or when it is hot, a paradise in Antarctica, who knows, but life will survive bob, life will survive.
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Quoting aspectre:
280 weatherh98 As we increase knowledge and technology is now increasing at an exponential rate, we will most likely be able to take out or put in gases in the atmosphere...Also, it's called an air conditioner, it works fantastic.

1) Air conditioners cool by dumping inside heat into the outside environment.

2) Running an air conditioner in-and-of-itself is inefficient: ie running one produces heat in excess of what is inside the building itself and also dumps that excess into the envirorment

3) Air conditioners draw power from the electricity grid and power plants.
a) The electricity(transmission)grid in-and-of-itself is inefficient: at least 5% of the power flow is turned directly into heating the environment; grid heating increases when the load increases or when the temperature is higher.
Resistance increases with load and with temperature. Air conditioners are run on high temperature days: the higher the temperature, the more power they draw (ie the greater the load) through the electricity grid from powerplants.
b) Powerplants are inefficient: the best fossil-fuel baseload powerplants (dual-cycle gas-turbines) convert nearly 40% of the energy available from burning directly into heating the environment.
The best nuclear powerplant converts 2/3rds or more of the energy from fission into directly heating the environment.
c) Peak-power plants are far less efficient. The best single-stage gas-turbine generator converts ~60% of the energy available from burning directly into heating the environment. The worst coal-burning generators, more than 75%.
And coal-burning creates ~35% more CO2 to produce the same amount of electricity than gas-burning at the same energy-conversion efficiency.

4) Because of those inefficiencies, all those fossil fuel plants are pouring vast amount of CO2 into the atmosphere just to heat the environment ON TOP OF the amount produced for sending electricity out onto the transmission grid.

5) Air conditioning is typically run during peak-load (or near) hours. Which means that utilities are buying peak-power at peak-prices.
Peak prices are so high that it'd probably be significantly cheaper for utilities to amortize the cost of installing enough roof-top solar-power and battery-backups to run those air-conditioners (in all areas except densely populated city cores) than to purchase that electricity from peak-power plants.

6) All fossil-fuel and nuclear powerplants use vast quantities of water. The amount of freshwater available per person is dropping faster than the population is increasing.
And the US is by far the leading user of air-conditioning (and refrigeration). Last time I was in Europe, having home air-conditioning was not even close to being the norm; and refrigerators strongly tended to be as small as those typically found in camper vans and US college dorm rooms.
Guess what happens if&when the rest of the World decides that it wants American-style comfort&convenience.


1) when it's hot I'm turning the ac on.
2) if what I believe I learned about nuclear power plants is correct they are clean if you keep the radioactivity inside. The water that is used I think is either recondensed or put into the atmosphere, etheir way it is clean and efficient because if you reuse it you don't need any more than when you start, or if it's pumped out, it rises and condenses and then rains.
3) the amount of groundwater, If we were to bring everything to the surface, would add to the oceans and COVER the peak of MT. EVEREST. And yes a lot of it is fresh.
4) technology will advance at a rate to where we WILL NOT be reliant on fossil fuels nearly as much by 2050, and if you are wondering a report has been published that if we has to, the united states could live at least 100 years on anything we have under our feet.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Life will indure a little heat up as it has indured snowball earthed and extreme heat periods and massive meteor strikes.


Right.

Now go read up on what life would have been like for humans had we been on the planet during the hottest and coldest periods.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


That is the only Arctic sea ice data I have bookmarked. Do you have a link to a sea ice volume graph?

I look at this about every other week, so would certainly like to expand my database.


Here are the three Arctic sea ice graphs I most frequently check...

Daily
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas/piomas-trnd4.png

Monthly
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png

Annual
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas/piomas-trnd6.png

These graphs get updated once a month, usually toward the end of the first week of the new month.

I find the monthly graph the most interesting because you can use it to see when we might first hit "zero" and then how the ice-free season would extend into future months.

What the monthly graph is telling us is that if melting continues as it has been happening we'll see melt-out in September of 2015 and a four month ice-free season before 2020.

Of course, that's not guaranteed. Weather variation can kick things sooner or later. But, think about it, not very long ago ice scientists were saying ice-free by the end of the century and lots of other scientists were finding that hard to believe.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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