Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 30, 2012

Share this Blog
33
+

Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

<
Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.

The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 731 - 681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

That mezovort thingy from yesterday is weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Cool stuff Nea..Gulf looks a bit agitated this morning.



Lots of jet stream action, and some shortwave energy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
YES WHERE IS THAT 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA THEY WERE SAYING YESTERDAY FOR TODAY, HERE ON THE GULF ITS SUNNY AND WARM AND no rain IN SIGHT



Settle down buddy, upper level energy will be traversing the area today, and is already sparking some activity in the gulf right now.


We have a decent shot at some stronger thunderstorms today. Its not guaranteed but it looks pretty good to where at least some of us will get a good storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


Nope.


I guess that answers that... It sure looked like one though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Is that a (pinhole) eye forming on Pakhar?



Nope.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Earth Day is not until April 22 of this year...not too sure why YouTube says it is either..


ok thanks thats why i was wondering because if that switch on youtube.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is that a (pinhole) eye forming on Pakhar?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
oh dont tell me this is earth day...anyone tell me, is it?

Earth Day is not until April 22 of this year...not too sure why YouTube says it is either..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33442
Quoting islander101010:
never bought a lotto ticket might get some showers today c fl?
YES WHERE IS THAT 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA THEY WERE SAYING YESTERDAY FOR TODAY, HERE ON THE GULF ITS SUNNY AND WARM AND no rain IN SIGHT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 44438
oh dont tell me this is earth day...anyone tell me, is it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS wants omega block pattern..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the dumb dry line kept us from getting so much as a drop of rain.

It registers as "trace" on the radar estimate, which in the real world means some scattered clouds went over head.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Storm Prediction Center day 4-8 outlook
------------------------------------------------- --
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW THAT IS BEING HANDLED POORLY BY THE MODELS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON TUE/D4...AND SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE MS VALLEY BY WED/D5. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE PROBABLE...ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK. STILL...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY...MAINLY FROM ERN TX INTO ERN OK...AR...AND LA ON D4...SPREADING EWD PERHAPS INTO THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES ON D5. WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

THIS LOW WILL OTHERWISE BE NESTLED WITH A LARGER SCALE UPPER RIDGE...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NERN AND NWRN CONUS. THE NEXT WRN TROUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS A COLD FRONT WITH CP AIR MASS STALLS NEAR THE GULF COAST D5/D6. HOWEVER...MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
From Spaceweather.com, this beautiful image of some 55-mile-high Oklahoma-based sprites taken yesterday from New Mexico:

sprites

"'At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites,' says Ashcraft. 'I could see them from two states away'" He also recorded VLF and shortwave radio emissions from the cluster, which you can hear as the soundtrack to this video.

Sprites are electrical discharges that come out of the top of thunderclouds, opposite ordinary lightning bolts which plunge toward Earth. Sprites can tower as high as 90 km above ground. That makes them a form of space weather as they overlap the zone of auroras, meteors, and noctilucent clouds.

Because they are associated with lightning, sprites are most often seen in summer months, 'but in the past few days sprites have been reported in Texas (particularly near the Mexican border) as well as here in New Mexico,' notes Ashcraft."


Nice video here
Cool stuff Nea..Gulf looks a bit agitated this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormGoddess:
Well, I'm ahead of the game ~ I've already been struck by lightning (while talking on the telephone). Since I'm already going against the odds perhaps this means I should invest in the lotto more often. :)


No, that just means you are certified as an electron:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
From Spaceweather.com, this beautiful image of some 55-mile-high Oklahoma-based sprites taken yesterday from New Mexico:

sprites

"'At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites,' says Ashcraft. 'I could see them from two states away'" He also recorded VLF and shortwave radio emissions from the cluster, which you can hear as the soundtrack to this video.

Sprites are electrical discharges that come out of the top of thunderclouds, opposite ordinary lightning bolts which plunge toward Earth. Sprites can tower as high as 90 km above ground. That makes them a form of space weather as they overlap the zone of auroras, meteors, and noctilucent clouds.

Because they are associated with lightning, sprites are most often seen in summer months, 'but in the past few days sprites have been reported in Texas (particularly near the Mexican border) as well as here in New Mexico,' notes Ashcraft."


Nice video here


Saw a couple beautiful supercells in SW KS one night. Viewed from southcentral Oklahoma, maybe about the same distance as across TX panhandle from NM to far Western OK. Didn't notice any sprites that night, but I was driving and couldn't keep my eyes on the clouds.

Thunderstorm(s) likely responsible for sprites night of March 29-30, 2012 dumped large hail near Woodward, OK and 4.5" hail near Roll, OK. SPC storm reports March 29, 2012. Watched it on radar for hours. Slow-moving and intense.

What I'm not understanding about Thomas Ashcraft's statement is, if sprites are related to lightning, how it could be unusual that they occurred when now is prime time for thunder, lightning and supercells here in Oklahoma. I see he has an observatory in New Mexico. Maybe he's a space person and does not realize lightning and powerful thunderstorms occur frequently in Oklahoma this time of year. Neat he was able to capture such an interesting image of sprites.

Hope you and all have a nice weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pakhar looks better this morning... bad news for Vietnam
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning everyone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I'm ahead of the game ~ I've already been struck by lightning (while talking on the telephone). Since I'm already going against the odds perhaps this means I should invest in the lotto more often. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Decided to include me in 5% range after all, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry". (Steinbeck)

It would appear that the massive garden project my wife SugarBear wanted me to do today,
will have to be delayed until Monday.

I was so looking forward to working on Saturday too. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah...there is a a higher chance that one will be hit by lightning when compared to winning the lotto


Actually, if you buy $50 dollars worth of tickets you end up with about equal chances as a lightning bolt.
I don't recommend doing that though. :P

If you have a a couple of dollars extra that you can afford to spend frivolously, I really don't see a problem with buying a lotto ticket every now and then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
...and, FWIW, three winning tickets were sold in last night's MegaMillions drawing: Kansas, Illinois and Maryland. Each winner will receive about $213 million; any electing to take the lump sump payment will get about $154 million before taxes, and about $116 million after taxes.

$116 million. Not a bad haul for a few minutes work...
never bought a lotto ticket might get some showers today c fl?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...and, FWIW, three winning tickets were sold in last night's MegaMillions drawing: Kansas, Illinois and Maryland. Each winner will receive about $213 million; any electing to take the lump sump payment will get about $154 million before taxes, and about $116 million after taxes.

$116 million. Not a bad haul for a few minutes work...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the MCV heading to the Florida Panhandle.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning to all. The daily SOI index continues to plunge towards negative status and that means Neutral conditions are dominating the Pacific right now.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a little one. But, still: Oklahoma. Again. Shallow, too, at 1.9 miles. Fracking depth, anyone?

Magnitude 3.3 - OKLAHOMA
2012 March 31 11:54:11 UTC

Date-Time
Saturday, March 31, 2012 at 11:54:11 UTC
Saturday, March 31, 2012 at 06:54:11 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
35.451N, 96.590W
Depth
5 km (3.1 miles)
Region
OKLAHOMA
Distances
33 km (20 miles) ENE of Shawnee, Oklahoma
60 km (37 miles) WSW of Okmulgee, Oklahoma
75 km (46 miles) N of Ada, Oklahoma
84 km (52 miles) E of OKLAHOMA CITY, Oklahoma
Location Uncertainty
horizontal /- 13.8 km (8.6 miles); depth /- 3.1 km (1.9 miles)
Parameters
NST= 19, Nph= 23, Dmin=8.9 km, Rmss=0.37 sec, Gp= 83,
M-type="Nuttli" surface wave magnitude (mbLg), Version=8
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008tj1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPRITE SEASON BEGINS

The first sprites of summer are starting to appear in the skies of North America. The strange thing is, summer is almost three months away. "Sprite season is beginning early this year," says Thomas Ashcraft, who photographed these specimens last night from his observatory in New Mexico:

Added: Doh~ I see it's a repost. Sorry.

http://spaceweather.com/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So glad many countries are not in denial about AGW! Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hot, crowded, and running out of fuel: Earth of 2050 a scary place

"A new report published by the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development paints a grim picture of the world in 2050 based on current global trends."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all.

Interesting to note this TS is still south of 10N....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:
Mumbai, Miami on list for big weather disasters

http://news.yahoo.com/mumbai-miami-list-big-weath er-disasters-150359548.html

But the good news is:

Maple Sugaring Safe from Climate Change, For Now

http://news.yahoo.com/video/burlingtonwptz-181908 96/maple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-change-for-now -28587016.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fburlingtonwptz- 18190896%252Fmaple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-chan ge-for-now-28587016.html
Not sure how safe the syrup is; according to the Washington Post, production has plummeted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 31 2012 - 12Z MON APR 02 2012

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SIERRAS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

A STORM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE COASTAL AREAS
... THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER ... AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ... ONSHORE FLOW WILL
AID IN PRODUCING COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE ... A WEAK STORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND EASTERN GULF COAST. RAIN
WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION ... MORNING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ... ON SUNDAY MORNING ... WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY MORNING MOVING EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY ALSO BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY EVENING TOO.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 44438
Mumbai, Miami on list for big weather disasters

http://news.yahoo.com/mumbai-miami-list-big-weath er-disasters-150359548.html

But the good news is:

Maple Sugaring Safe from Climate Change, For Now

http://news.yahoo.com/video/burlingtonwptz-181908 96/maple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-change-for-now -28587016.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fburlingtonwptz- 18190896%252Fmaple-sugaring-safe-from-climate-chan ge-for-now-28587016.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Spaceweather.com, this beautiful image of some 55-mile-high Oklahoma-based sprites taken yesterday from New Mexico:

sprites

"'At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites,' says Ashcraft. 'I could see them from two states away'" He also recorded VLF and shortwave radio emissions from the cluster, which you can hear as the soundtrack to this video.

Sprites are electrical discharges that come out of the top of thunderclouds, opposite ordinary lightning bolts which plunge toward Earth. Sprites can tower as high as 90 km above ground. That makes them a form of space weather as they overlap the zone of auroras, meteors, and noctilucent clouds.

Because they are associated with lightning, sprites are most often seen in summer months, 'but in the past few days sprites have been reported in Texas (particularly near the Mexican border) as well as here in New Mexico,' notes Ashcraft."


Nice video here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
695. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19F
18:00 PM FST March 31 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 19F (1001 hPa) located at 14.6S 162.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent to the equatorward of the system center but has not developed over the low level circulation center. Low level circulation center is difficult to locate. Tropical depression 19 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. The system is steered southeastwards by the lower tropospheric westerlies south of the subtropical ridge into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with further intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
faster and faster we go

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This wind map has probably been posted here already, but I haven't seen it when dropping by - so check it out!

http://hint.fm/wind/index.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
692. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 31 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.7N 109.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.4N 107.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- South China Sea --
48 HRS: 11.2N 105.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) -- Overland Cambodia --
72 HRS: 12.6N 103.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression) -- Overland Cambodia --

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
747 PM CDT Friday Mar 30 2012




Sounding discussion...
no problems with this evenings flight. Multi-layered cloudiness
continues. The precipitable water value was at 1.44 inches. The low cumulus
clouds have bases just above 2k feet with the altocumulus and
altostratus at over 10k. The cirrostratus was located around 19k
feet. The lifted index of -5.3 continues to indicate large
instability. Mean low level winds from the surface through 5k
feet are from the south-southwest at 15kts. From 5k to 10k feet
the wind veer and are southwesterly at 17kts. The freezing level
is just under 13k feet.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM CDT Friday Mar 30 2012/


Short term...
the mesoscale convective vortex that affected the area overnight and early this morning
was was centered over eastern Mississippi this afternoon and was
continuing to move east northeast toward western Alabama. Another
well defined mesoscale convective vortex feature was over the northwest Gulf and moving
toward Louisiana. Although only isolated convection has been
occurring across the forecast area so far this afternoon...this
feature will have the potential to enhance convection activity
later this afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours as
it passes through. The atmosphere across the area is quite
unstable....so any thunderstorms that do develop will have the
potential to be strong.



Long term...
in the wake of this second mesoscale convective vortex feature...the models forecast a
shortwave trough to move across the central Gulf Coast region
Saturday into Saturday evening. Although the atmosphere will be
somewhat drier on Saturday...it will still be quite unstable so any
thunderstorms that do develop could again be on the strong side.
For the last half of the weekend...dry weather should prevail as
ridging at the middle and upper levels prevails.


For the beginning of the work week...rain chances will be on the
increase again. A strong upper trough that will be moving into the
western U.S. Over the weekend will close off into an upper low
over the southern rockies early in the work week. A lead shortwave
is forecast to traverse the western Gulf Coast region and lower
Mississippi vally Monday and Monday night. This should result in
the development of scattered convection Monday afternoon and
Monday night. A better chance of convection will occur Tuesday
into Tuesday night as the closed low moves east across the
Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This will
push a cold front across the forecast area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) is an outlier in being considerable slower in
moving the closed low eastward than the GFS and Gem. Plan to go
with the faster solution. At this time it appears that there could be
some severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday evening with strong
lift...a very unstable atmosphere and good direction and speed
shear forecast during the period.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130843
Nice steady rain with a lil wind..nice actually, turned the Window unit off and opened the Doors.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130843
Quoting Patrap:


Ya got yer umbreller handy, Pat?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130843
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Anybody remember "tunnels"?



hahahaha unfortunately I do


I actually have been on these blogs since 2004. I just made a new name in 2008(same name accept "01" added on the end). The reason why I did that is because I got spammed horribly day after day by some crazy user in WU private mail so I got tired of it and started over with a new name.


I joined during the 2004 hurricane season right after Charley. After Charley they had a local news story about this site or something like that. But then I was 13 and I was desperately hoping for weather forums, I went nuts when I found this site. Plus all the great weather products as well. This place has changed quite a bit in 8 years, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Da swirlie thingee is here and raining on us still.





I SEE A PINHOLE EYE!!!!

And with that; I bid you all, buenos noches.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3480


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130843
Quoting PedleyCA:


Actually I heard there is a better chance of being struck twice by lightning than winning it.


Its hard to call the odds because most people don't try to be targets of lightning the way people go crazy for lottery tickets lol.


However if you go outside repeatedly in Florida during intense lightning storms, I would probably bet that hospitalization or death will eventually find you, lol.

Seriously, the chances of getting hit by lightning aren't quite as low as some make it sound, most people take shelter during lighting, if everyone went in gathered in under strong thunderstorm with numerous cloud to ground hits, a lot more people would be hit.

Imagine how many more people would be hit by lightning if people tried to get hit as much as people attempt to win the lottery?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 731 - 681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
33 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley