Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 30, 2012

Share this Blog
33
+

Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.

<
Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.

The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.

The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.

Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)

Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 831 - 781

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Pakhar is barely moving... We will end up seeing 1-3 FEET of rain in Vietnam... Very bad.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Just showing how boring it would be without weather.

It is much less boring with clouds and whatnot.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
Ok people you are talking about turning the lights off for an hour but I doubt that in the city I live is going to happen in here everyone make such a noise when lights go off that I doubt they could be without lights for an hour in my case I will not do it,and I will not do it because I don`t want to, so people should respect the opinion of others if he doesn`t leave him do it you if you want to but not try to change other opinions.btw is if you want if I am correct no one is forcing you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPC has added a 2% tornado risk, but not where you might think...


Actually, that's been there since the 12Z outlook. What they have added however is a Day 2 Slight risk across northeast Kentucky, northeast West Virginia, much of southern Ohio, and east/southeast Indiana.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
SPC has added a 2% tornado risk, but not where you might think...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FZUS72 KTBW 311827
MWSTBW

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GMZ830-853-311900-
/O.CON.KTBW.MA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120331T1900Z/
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
TAMPA BAY WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING ANNA MARIA ISLAND...EGMONT KEY...JOHNS PASS...PASS-A-GRILLE
CHANNEL...SAINT PETE BEACH...SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE...TAMPA BAY AND
TERRA CEIA BAY...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
OVER SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE...OR ABOUT 2 NM WEST OF SUNSHINE SKYWAY
BRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.

* THE WILL BE NEAR...
TAMPA BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 2783 8239 2776 8239 2775 8245 2769 8252
2769 8250 2762 8256 2758 8254 2748 8264
2751 8289 2781 8285 2782 8275 2776 8274
2770 8265 2784 8262 2786 8254 2782 8248
2786 8249 2787 8240 2785 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 271DEG 17KT 2760 8267

$$






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Just got back from a morning boating. We got a little rain out there. Weather is perfect now. Still geting any rain out your way?

no...it has been dry over the past two days. Haiti had 6 deaths associated with early season rainfall...it's so that they continue to suffer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon Nigel. I can tell you that so far no flood advisories have been issued at this time,and that is real change from the past few days,when those started to come out around 11 AM EDT.

Good afternoon Tropicsweatherpr...thanks for the update. I hope Puerto Rico get enough time to dry out before any further rains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

What's up Grothar?


Just got back from a morning boating. We got a little rain out there. Weather is perfect now. Still geting any rain out your way?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
What's up with all the blank maps?


Just showing how boring it would be without weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLC037-311845-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120331T1845Z/
FRANKLIN FL-
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TURKEY POINT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2988 8460 2997 8458 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 289DEG 20KT 2992 8449

$$

42-DVD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Such a shock, the squall line is breaking up a little, and that gap will go conveniently right over my house.



You're not alone, down here in Central Florida it did that to me as well, for a long while the strongest part of the line was headed right at me, then it broke up into to separate areas just as it moved in, and then of course it filled back in after it passed me...


We are really, really dry. My whole front yard is completely brown, my yearly rain total is only 4.03 inches so far, our yearly total should be a bit over 10 in reality by now for the average.

We could have really used that strong cell, we are just getting light rain instead, it did rain really heavy for about 30 seconds just to tease us as a strong cell scraped just to our north, but that didn't add up to much, especially when is dry like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Nigel

What's up Grothar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Good day all!


Good afternoon Nigel. I can tell you that so far no flood advisories have been issued at this time,and that is real change from the past few days,when those started to come out around 11 AM EDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Is that a (pinhole) eye forming on Pakhar?


Flooding and landslides will likely be an issue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ045-053-144-311915-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANIMAL KINGDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE CELEBRATION...LAKE BUENA VISTA AND DOCTOR
PHILLIPS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

LAT...LON 2837 8181 2857 8126 2826 8118 2822 8154
2826 8156 2826 8166 2834 8167 2834 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 246DEG 23KT 2833 8167

$$


BOWEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's up with all the blank maps?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Good day all!


Hi, Nigel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finall got a good shower which stopped now, hope we get some more here..looks like its bad up in north florida.............TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-311845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0034.120331T1819Z-120331T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 216 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 3 MILES NORTH LANARK VILLAGE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURKEY POINT...SAINT TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 8467 2998 8462 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 291DEG 17KT 2992 8461

$$

38-GODSEY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
Good day all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


New Hartford CT this morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Getting serious up north of us, be Careful up there folks..heed your local warnings...................TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-311845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0034.120331T1819Z-120331T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 216 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 3 MILES NORTH LANARK VILLAGE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURKEY POINT...SAINT TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 8467 2998 8462 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 291DEG 17KT 2992 8461

$$

38-GODSEY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


You do not understand the First Amendment.


Yes, I do. But let's not start a flame war over free speech. I might not agree with someone, but I agree that they have the right to say it...
Quoting nymore:


He has every right to his opinion, if you don't like it to bad

Here is something you may want to learn.

"I MAY DISAGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAY BUT I WILL DEFEND TO THE DEATH YOUR RIGHT TO SAY IT" Evelyn Beatrice Hall


I was just about to pull that quote out, lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ045-144-311900-
ORANGE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
211 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE LOUISA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE BAY HILL...BELLE ISLE...DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND
ORLOVISTA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

LAT...LON 2866 8146 2864 8146 2864 8137 2835 8126
2834 8179 2836 8180 2836 8185 2834 8186
2834 8188 2848 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 25KT 2842 8179

$$


BOWEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting severstorm:
Finally, Some much needed rain in wcfl...Zephyrhills
I've already had .42 inches in 20 mins.
great, just a very very light sprinkle here so far, not even enough to fully wet the street, but i'm hoping more will come now, the sky is overcast, suns gone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Such a shock, the squall line is breaking up a little, and that gap will go conveniently right over my house.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Less Great Lakes ice cover also means a longer lake-effect snowfall season, which tends to leave 3-4 foot snowfall totals in 24-48 hours, thus increasing the rate of climate skepticism, and thus reducing prospect of action on the issue, thus furthering more future climatic uncertainty. And biggering, and Biggering, and BIGGERING!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:


He has every right to his opinion, if you don't like it to bad

Here is something you may want to learn.

"I MAY DISAGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAY BUT I WILL DEFEND TO THE DEATH YOUR RIGHT TO SAY IT" Evelyn Beatrice Hall

NOTE: These rights may or may not exist on a privately run blog, solely at the discretion of the blog owner.

There. That clears up the FA and its relation to blogs. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
You know, CFLs, like all fluorescent lights, contain mercury, and should thus never be intentionally broken--and handled with extreme caution when inadvertently shattered--as mercury is known to cause brain damage. Which--just a thought--might explain some things.


That's COLD, but you do have a Point, LOL.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally, Some much needed rain in wcfl...Zephyrhills
I've already had .42 inches in 20 mins.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


Folks might want to contemplate whether our home schooled friend has morphed into a troll.

Urban Dictionary
Troll:
One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument.


He has every right to his opinion, if you don't like it to bad

Here is something you may want to learn.

"I MAY DISAGREE WITH WHAT YOU SAY BUT I WILL DEFEND TO THE DEATH YOUR RIGHT TO SAY IT" Evelyn Beatrice Hall
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD
THROUGH TN. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE YIELDED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE HAS
INCREASED TO 2500 J/KG. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE. LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP COLD POOLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.


...MEAD
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
Quoting SPLbeater:I like standard lightbulbs best because you dont have to wait 5 minutes for them to get bright like you do CFLs. I mean CFLs are great...i like shattering them on the floor amd picking up the pieces immediately. leave windows n such closed, and then vacuum it up. lol. :D
You know, CFLs, like all fluorescent lights, contain mercury, and should thus never be intentionally broken--and handled with extreme caution when inadvertently shattered--as mercury is known to cause brain damage. Which--just a thought--might explain some things. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Freedom of speech in the United States

Congress shall make no law.......... abridging the freedom of speech

He has the same right to say what he wants to say (with a few limitations, but I don't see him violating any of those) as anyone else does. If you don't like it, the ignore button is down here:
||
||
||
\ /
V


You do not understand the First Amendment.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion at 2:05 today they said:
AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION
OF THE EAST COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SUN...
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE TROPICS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC033-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0121.120331T1750Z-120401T0200Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLBERT DEKALB FRANKLIN
JACKSON LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARSHALL
MORGAN


GAC047-083-111-123-213-295-313-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0121.120331T1750Z-120401T0200Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CATOOSA DADE FANNIN
GILMER MURRAY WALKER
WHITFIELD


MSC003-009-093-117-139-141-145-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0121.120331T1750Z-120401T0200Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCORN BENTON MARSHALL
PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO
UNION


TNC003-005-007-011-015-017-021-023-031-033-035-037 -039-041-043-
047-051-053-055-061-065-069-071-075-077-081-083-08 5-099-101-103-
107-109-113-115-117-119-121-127-135-139-141-143-14 9-153-175-177-
181-185-187-189-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0121.120331T1750Z-120401T0200Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD BENTON BLEDSOE
BRADLEY CANNON CARROLL
CHEATHAM CHESTER COFFEE
CROCKETT CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON
DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GIBSON
GILES GRUNDY HAMILTON
HARDEMAN HARDIN HAYWOOD
HENDERSON HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS LAWRENCE LEWIS
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
MARSHALL MAURY MCMINN
MCNAIRY MEIGS MOORE
PERRY POLK PUTNAM
RHEA RUTHERFORD SEQUATCHIE
VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...HUN...OHX...MRX...MEG...FFC...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
90.9f at 12:45p.m. March 31, 2012...

That's a home digital thermometer heavily shaded.

Near Springfield in Louisiana. i.e. Springfield phone number, Ponchatoula address area.

89.4f officially in Hammond, so my thermometer is not off by much, if anything. It may just be 1.5f hotter here.

That's a doozy for March, might be a new record, not sure.

Ok, 1 stations' record is 91f, while the other is 86f, so it seems likely we broke the record already for one station by about 3 degrees.

91f or more is probably still easily in range before the peak heat of the day, if wind and clouds don't offset it.

Still got an hour and a half or so to average daytime high...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's in that general direction. If you look down then you will have "Quote" and "Ignore User" right next to each other in the bottom bar thing... I personally have never ignored someone, because I have a high tolerance for people and by the time someone does something to get on my "iggy" list, they get banned anyway.

I do not believe there is really any point of the ignore button. Other users are going to quote the said ignored user anyways, so why even try to ignore him/her?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
But before I go....

Very "dry season" day here, with the trees showing some stress after an unusually long wet period.
Hot and hazy. 92.5F currently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol. florida better be careful this evening...yal see that cat 2 system comin from the west? its MASSIVE!!! come on NHC, we see it why dont you?!!?!?

that tropical wave near the Cape Verdes also needs a red circle, the NHC forgot their crayons...

This is no fun.
We agree with each other! LOL

Laters>>>>>>>>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57020
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not where the ignore button is.


It's in that general direction. If you look down then you will have "Quote" and "Ignore User" right next to each other in the bottom bar thing... I personally have never ignored someone, because I have a high tolerance for people and by the time someone does something to get on my "iggy" list, they get banned anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL/MS...ERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311729Z - 311900Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN BY
18-19Z...WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NRN AL/MS AND
PERHAPS ERN AR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

MIDDAY WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING SEWD TOWARD THE
LWR/MID OH VALLEY...WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN TX. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING THE
MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WWD INTO TN...WHICH
TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD INTO THE LWR MO VALLEY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE TN
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPR 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM WILL FAVOR STRONG
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS PROBABLE OVER WRN/MIDDLE TN
DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO. STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD S INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN AL/MS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MIDLEVEL NWLY WINDS FROM
30-40 KT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. LARGE BUOYANCY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR SVR HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..GARNER.. 03/31/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Freedom of speech in the United States

Congress shall make no law.......... abridging the freedom of speech

He has the same right to say what he wants to say (with a few limitations, but I don't see him violating any of those) as anyone else does. If you don't like it, the ignore button is down here:
||
||
||
\ /
V

That's not where the ignore button is.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33310
Quoting pottery:

No it's NOT a comma ...
It's an apostrophe. And everyone knows that apostrophes are very likely to become catastrophes.
That pinhole eye you are seeing is going to be Bad News.
Better get the shower-curtain out and check it....


lol. florida better be careful this evening...yal see that cat 2 system comin from the west? its MASSIVE!!! come on NHC, we see it why dont you?!!?!?

that tropical wave near the Cape Verdes also needs a red circle, the NHC forgot their crayons...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 831 - 781

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
32 °F
Partly Cloudy

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley