Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973
Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.
<
Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.
The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.
The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index
That was an amusing April Fool's post. :)
Sadly, it seems some people are actually taking it seriously. I'm just waiting to see if WUWT or CA have a serious "response" on the matter. Wouldn't surprise me if those clowns do take it seriously.
It's already over 88 degrees!
Sorry, I had too..
If the real costs of nuclear power were taken into account, there would be no nuclear power. This is another story about the welfare sucking mining community leaching off the taxpayers after they rape the land for profit.
Oh and this is my last post, i am quitting this blog
I Respect your opinion. You are focused on your goal and nothing will stop you from achieving your goal...such dedication can only bring you success. +10
You forgot April Fool's there.
I'm very much aware of the magnitude of "billion". The discussion was about how much time realistically does the Earth have left for sustaining life, and depending on the scenario it's about 1-2 billion years. Human survival really wasn't part of the context.
It's very unlikely that we will still be here by then(on the planet), and if we are we won't be anything like we are now. Of course that's assuming we don't become an evolutionary dead end as a result of ourselves or some cataclysm.
Info about the Wave that came ashore 1992 daytona beach! Good read
hope everyone is well and looking forward to the season.
13,CFS will be discontinued in June and CFSv2 will take over.
Dang it didnt work :)
The CFS is predicting neutral conditions through out the hurricane season
The true secret to multitasking is to do one thing at a time. ;-)
%uFFFD 1995 Coastal Education & Research Foundation, Inc.
Abstract:
On a clear calm evening during July 1992, an anomalously large wave, reportedly 6 m high, struck the Daytona Beach, Florida area. We hypothesize that a squall line and associated pressure jump, traveling at the speed of a free gravity wave, coupled resonantly with the sea surface forming the large wave or "squall-line surge." The wave was forced along the length of the squall line, with the greatest amplitude occurring at the water depth satisfying the resonant condition. Radar observations showed a strong squall line moving at a steady speed for several hundred kilometers parallel, to the coast from Georgia towards central Florida. The squall line dissipated 10 km north of Daytona Beach; any forced wave would then propagate freely and refract. Wave refraction analyses predict a longshore distribution of wave heights consistent with field measurements of maximum wave runup.
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/4298439?uid =3739104&uid=2460338255&uid=2460338175&uid=2460337 935&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&uid=83&uid=63&sid= 21100696398711
Also from AMS
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520- 0477%281995%290760021%3ATDBWOJ2.0.CO%3B2
It gave me 20 mice.
nice try google
I hope it happens!
boy people are busy this april fools.
Same thing is true about red sprites. So rarely seen that even experienced pilots were surprised at how true their tradecraft "folk tales" were. And even rarer were reports from the ground.
Due to timing nearly coincident to LARGE lightning bolts, the comparatively dim red light of the overwhelmingly vast majority of sprites were missed entirely, washed out of vision and photos by the temporary flash-blindness caused by the bright white lightning.
It was only after '87 that scientists began photographing and studying the phenomenum, and that techniques leading to deliberate capture of sprite images on film were developed.
Good morning
Well, that's you, lol. As for me, I'm way too much of an introvert, I don't even really bother "hooking up" with girls in general because its a waste of time and leads to emotional problems and or other foolish things and its disrespectful to that person. By my age people should have grown out of that stage which shouldn't occur past adolescence. When I meet the woman who I intended to be married to the rest of my life, well that's a different story, and when I say that I mean it.
I don't desire flirting with girls, neither do I like drinking parties, or parties in general. Don't get me wrong, I'm far from anti-social, I just would much rather have deep conversation with a few close friends instead of a wild college party, yuck! Crowds drive me nuts because people get stupid in crowds and don't use their brain, everything they do is to whatever extreme of the emotion involved.
===
I guess I'm mostly the same way. Entirely too introverted, or maybe its not even introverted, but just have trouble connecting with people on their level and interests.
I don't drink or do parties, and around here, bars, clubs, and so-called church are about the only ways to meet anyone, and I swear church is nothing more than a con game and a fake mask everyone wears anyway, so that's not really a good place to meet someone to love either.
Email and text on internet dating sites is useless, because people read too much into what someone is saying and get offended over absolutely nothing.
As for the 'right woman", I don't know if such a thing exists, or if that's just some childish fantasy thing our culture invented.
My experience is most of the time the one you're interested in doesn't know you exist, and is in love with or has a crush on someone else. Then you end up "friend zoned" in a way that is entirely uncomfortable and unhealthy, and end up just have to get the heck out of the situation all together before somebody gets hurt. Been there a few times, and it sucks. usually go away with nothing, even after months or years of invested time.
Viewing: 1101 - 1131
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index