February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012

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February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

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768. JNCali
1:19 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
New blog...
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
767. Bergeron
1:18 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:


I've switched around from Campus to Campus, but right now I'm partly enrolled online and at Tarpon Springs Campus this semester.


Cool...I'm over at Clearwater Campus
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
766. PolishHurrMaster
1:16 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
near 28N94W - whats happening there?
Member Since: May 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 351
765. Bergeron
1:15 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



A cooling Gulf of Guinea sends the ITCZ or Monsoon Trof further north into the Sahel.
Member Since: October 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 101
764. JNCali
1:01 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I don't sleep well seeing this area continue to light up.

this area could easily produce a tidal wave similar to the indian ocean but in the Pacific instead.. there's a game changer event...
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
763. Xyrus2000
12:56 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.


Levi responded to the tropical cyclone aspect of your post. I'll address the Gulf Stream part. :)

I'm not really sure I've ever heard of the THC keeping western Europe warm, however it is well known the the THC is what keeps norther Europe from turning into Alaska Link. The warmer waters moderate the effect of being at such a high latitude. More recently, the warmer waters (and altered weather patterns) have been acting like a blow torch to ice formation in the Karents causing a large reduction in arctic ice formation in the region.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
762. Guysgal
12:48 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
This is particularly egregious! Link
Member Since: May 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
761. Xyrus2000
12:34 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.


Really? I'm a little surprised that it isn't a requirement for a met. Both numerical analysis and numerical methods were met requirements when I went to Plymouth State if I recall correctly.

My advice would be to take it. If you plan on doing any sort of computational work (modeling, etc.) or intensive data analysis, it will give you a solid grounding in the essentials, including some error analysis.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
760. OracleDeAtlantis
12:14 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
I don't sleep well seeing this area continue to light up.

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
759. LargoFl
12:13 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

NJZ009-010-020>022-027-PAZ060>062-067>069-301300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120330T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE PINE BARRENS IN NEW
JERSEY.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN AROUND THE REGION. ANY VEGETATION
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A PERIOD OF THREE OR
MORE HOURS WOULD BE AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IF POSSIBLE BRING TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION INDOORS AND PROVIDE PROTECTIVE COVERING FOR OTHERS.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
758. StormTracker2K
12:04 PM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I told you this would happen:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.


We may have already seen our peek in severe wx this season. It seems to me that we are seeing a similar set up to what we've seen in 2009 for the April thru June time frame (severe wx wise). It just seems that the theme lately has been Rex Blocks and numerous cut off of lows.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
757. GeorgiaStormz
11:59 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
I told you this would happen:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
756. StormTracker2K
11:50 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
We haven't this much water vapor across the Gulf in months! Bring on the rain as we need in it in FL especially now as temps are expected to be 88 tom 93 over the next 7 days.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
755. StormTracker2K
11:45 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Boy if thes models pan out then FL will see a lot of rain next week. All the models are wanting to bring this UPPER LEVEL LOW across the state. If this is the case then this is a sure sign that this La-Nina wx pattern has fizzled.


GFS


CMC


EURO
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
754. GeoffreyWPB
11:43 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. FROM MIDWEEK
ON...LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE QUITE CONSIDERABLY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A CUTOFF H5 LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SLIDES
IT TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE AND KEEPS IT WELL TO THE
NORTH. THIS MORE DYNAMIC SOLUTION SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
753. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
0520 450 4 N ROLL ROGER MILLS OK 3584 9972 TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR (OUN)

That's softball sized hail, guys.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
752. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:24 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(

I wouldn't count on it, the GFS shows a very lackluster severe potential for next Monday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30259
751. nrtiwlnvragn
11:12 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.



Assessing the Climate Footprint of Tropical Cyclones: Pertinent Players or Irrelevant Pawns?


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
750. ktymisty
10:48 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
A weak but photogenic tornado moving through the Mexican desert:



That is a very nice tornado video, but it doesn't look 'weak' to me :/
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
749. ktymisty
10:40 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Fijians scramble to higher ground amid floods.

Flash flooding has cut highways and forced evacuations in Fiji, with residents sheltering from rising waters on rooftops as authorities scrambled to find rescue boats....

Disaster management office Dismac said a "massive" number of people were stranded on rooftops awaiting rescue and appealed for anyone with a boat to help relief efforts.

"We've got a lot of reports of people on rooftops, it's quite a massive number," Dismac director Pajiliai Dobui said.

"If people in these areas have boats, we're asking them to make them available, as the little we have is not enough."

The National Weather Forecasting Centre predicted the rain would continue until at least Sunday, accompanied by strong winds on Saturday.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
748. MAweatherboy1
10:37 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Happy Friday!

Maybe some decent storms today...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7297
747. bappit
10:34 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
746. LargoFl
10:08 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Good morning folks, yet another Hot and Dry day in store for us here in dry sunny Florida, like they used to say "Come On Down"..have a great day everyone!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33375
745. Neapolitan
9:42 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
A (relatively) weak but nonetheless photogenic tornado moving through the Mexican desert:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
744. AussieStorm
8:51 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.9N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Tropical storm will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest

Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.0 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
743. Levi32
8:00 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.


From NWS SRH:

"Therein shows the purpose of tropical cyclones. Their role is to take heat, stored in the ocean, and transfer it to the upper atmosphere where the upper level winds carry that heat to the poles. This keeps the polar regions from being as cold as they could be and helps keep the tropics from overheating."

It is a fundamental tendency in the Earth's circulation to perform this heat transfer in an attempt to balance the heat budget between the equator and the poles. Tropical cyclones can probably be thought of as more of a result of the magnitude of this imbalance. The stronger the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, the more frequent strong surges of upward motion in the tropics caused by tropical cyclones would become. Even AGW theory addresses this somewhat by stating that total tropical cyclone numbers would decrease as the polar regions warm faster than the equator.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
742. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:04 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.9N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Tropical storm will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest

Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.0 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
740. KoritheMan
6:18 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm.


No, it's simple meteorology. Just like a cooler Gulf of Guinea promotes stronger tropical waves.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
739. bappit
6:16 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
They do distribute it a little though dont they.?

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
738. KoritheMan
6:13 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Cyclone2012:


How's it going, man?


Just got done doing the dishes. I plan to enjoy my next two days off.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
737. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST March 30 2012
===================================

At 1:00pm EST, A low pressure system was located to the south of the Solomon Islands near 11.5S 157.5E. The low is forecast to move to the east of 160E, out of the Coral Sea outlook area, during Saturday. The low is expected to gradually intensify, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. This system is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
735. KoritheMan
4:53 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Cyclone2012:
Kori!!!!!!!!!!!!


sup
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
733. jamesrainier
4:49 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAWFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE...STRONG CITY...CRAWFORD...DURHAM AND ROLL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE
TO PROPERTY. TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY FLOOD LOW CREEKS...DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
732. KoritheMan
4:47 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting MTWX:


Other bad new... If that senerio unfolds, the same areas that got hammered in April last year are going to get another lick!


Nah, I think it'll be farther south. And I'm not just saying that because that puts me directly in the path.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
731. MTWX
4:43 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(


Other bad new... If that senerio unfolds, the same areas that got hammered in April last year are going to get another lick!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
730. Jedkins01
4:35 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Link

Check this out from Mc Allen Texas^ crazy rain amounts from that powerful cell.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
729. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:24 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting blsealevel:
Monster solar tornadoes discovered



Link
thats not a discovery i've been watchin those sunados for almost 2 years now see them all the time if ya know what to look for thats a small one compared to a few others i've seen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52265
728. KoritheMan
3:57 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.7N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.0N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..

---
thinks JMA needs to reconsider intensity at 6:00 am.


Agreed.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
727. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:47 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.7N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.0N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..

---
thinks JMA needs to reconsider intensity at 6:00 am.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43682
726. KoritheMan
3:45 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19127
725. Jedkins01
3:34 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting Levi32:


FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.



I knew that was true for the bachelors degree because I've read the requirements for it like a 1000 times over the last couple years to make sure I'm taking the right math and other general courses so I am prepared to transfer there haha.

I just hadn't looked at the grad school stuff before, so I wasn't sure if that required more math or not. I'm definitely thinking about going to grad school after as well and focusing on tropical meteorology for many reasons.


Its nice to know I only have 1 more math class then. I just don't really like mathematics just for the sake of mathematics. I'm fine using it in science, I just have never found an ounce of passion for math by itself.


I appreciate it for what it is though, without mathematical advancement, essentially we would still be a bunch of men and women in animal skin clothing running around the forests of the world.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
724. Ameister12
3:28 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Typhoon Pakhar.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
723. j2008
3:20 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
722. Ameister12
3:18 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Hail covering the ground also in McAllen, TX.


Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
721. j2008
3:15 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Pakhar is now the first typhoon of the year just btw. Stay on top of the weather guys, Ur doing a good job.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
720. Ameister12
3:12 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Hail destroyed windows in McAllen, TX.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
719. TampaSpin
3:07 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A few minutes ago, the storm literally had VIL off that charts. IT WAS OVER 125!!!!!!!




Ya i captured this...WOW...check this out..OMG

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
718. Tropicsweatherpr
3:05 AM GMT on March 30, 2012
Even a Special Marine warning has been issued.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ725-300400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0004.120330T0234Z-120330T0400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 1024 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER WATERS BETWEEN NAGUABO COAST AND THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6578 1826 6563 1828 6533 1796 6547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 088DEG 6KT 1818 6561

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13310

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.