February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012

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February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
hey guys what in the world is that near Tx is it a sub-trop or hybrid TS Marco lol

anyway I was just thinking what if this weak & slowly dieing La Nina justs goes to nutral to cool all the way through summer and fall then goes into El Nino by winter instead of what is currently forecasted...this is just a thought anyway
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Quoting hydrus:
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..

Wats up hydrus?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
I started a new FB page i think you all will like...it will make it very easy to share with others like family and friends when the Tropical Season rolls around.
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Quoting hydrus:
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..


Is that a snowstorm in the Ohio Valley?
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513. Skyepony (Mod)
This Buoy is right off Galveston & about to hit by the MCS.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Be nice if that Meso center stalled onshore, it's near being on top of me now


That would be nice, but won't happen!
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
LOCATED IN THE WARNED AREA FROM NEAR INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO AROUND PASADENA. THESE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS LEADING TO INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF NEARLY 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. AMOUNTS OF 2.68 INCHES HAD FALLEN NEAR BELTWAY 8 AND THE HARDY
TOLL ROAD.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALDINE...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...DEER PARK...GALENA
PARK...HIGHLANDS...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...JACINTO CITY...KINGWOOD...
PASADENA...SOUTH HOUSTON...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
CROSBY...ELLINGTON FIELD...MINUTE MAID PARK AND SHELDON.
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Link
To my new blog post on Tropical Storm Pakhar.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Really beginning to get organized..



Seeing low level inflow and upper level outflow with this too!

First advisory should be out any minute, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


There is good news today as the frequency of flood advisories being issued has dropped a lot compared with Wednesday. The cloudy sky this afternoon has not allowed diurnal heating to do it's thing except for the west Interior PR,where the sun was out in the morning allowing the diurnal heating with the still available moisture to cause heavy rains there. The caveat is that the grounds are saturated and any additional rain will cause the rise of rivers once again.Hopefully,a more normal pattern establishes in the comming days.

That's good and I hope the news get even better
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
The afternoon discussion came out and it has good news for Puerto Rico as a drying trend may start this upcomming weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL FLATTEN/WEAKEN OVR THE
WEEKEND. FLAT RIDGE WILL TRY TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGH PATTERN XPCD TO ESTABLISH AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST ACARS PLOT SHOW THAT AREA IS UNDER UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT EXIT REGION OF 105-KT JET
STREAK RIDING OVER NORTHEAST PR AND INTO THE ATLC. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
JET STREAK IS STILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AREA BECOMING UNDER FVRBL
UPPER DIVERGENCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING AS SEEN
ON 12Z GFS 250 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS. FOR TONIGHT...THINGS ARE
ALREADY QUITE DOWN QUICKLY AND I EXPECT THIS TO BE RULE TONIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI. STEERING WINDS (0-6KM MEAN
FLOW) IS PRETTY WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR NON-EXISTENT SO ANY
TSTMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST WILL HAVE TO FIGHT MID-LVL DRY AIR.

CONDITIONS IMROVE RAPIDLY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING. FURTHER IMROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AND
SUN AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND MID-LVL TEMPS WARM/SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERT QUICKLY
WITH THE GFS SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING STEADILY AND THE
ECWMF INDICATING COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS. PREFER T

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALL ARPTS EXCEPT JPS.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALG THE ATLC COAST DUE TO NORTH
SWELLS. SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 30 70 40 40
STT 74 77 74 77 / 40 40 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting dabirds:
ILwthr - looks like some rain coming across I-72, hope we get some southern edge doesn't look too strong. Found some morels in my woods yesterday, but it could use some more moisture to make them really pop. Can't believe I'm saying that in March! Asparagus popping too!


Nothing like the last two weeks of high temperatures of 30 degree F compared to average, plants definitely got a boost from that. .

Rain running into a lot of dry air up here. Dewpoints in the mid 30's. I don't see anyone getting much more than a quarter inch where it is raining efficiently right now...
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Where you see the city Angleton, that is in Brazoria county. Lot of open fields and farms in that county, good rains for those places.

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Really beginning to get organized..



Seeing low level inflow and upper level outflow with this too!
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Be nice if that Meso center stalled onshore, it's near being on top of me now
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting nigel20:

What's the lastest on Puerto Rico?


There is good news today as the frequency of flood advisories being issued has dropped a lot compared with Wednesday. The cloudy sky this afternoon has not allowed diurnal heating to do it's thing except for the west Interior PR,where the sun was out in the morning allowing the diurnal heating with the still available moisture to cause heavy rains there. The caveat is that the grounds are saturated and any additional rain will cause the rise of rivers once again.Hopefully,a more normal pattern establishes in the comming days.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
GOM Sea Height Anomaly

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
499. Skyepony (Mod)
Wow that MSC in TX feeding on the gulf... Looks like it'd blow up if it got all the way in water. We've had a few of these so far this year. This is the most impressive & closest to water. They keep getting a little more south. This is one of the two circumstances I guessed we'd see form our first depression, because of this pattern.

Right now it looks really torn with the strong bow looking like it wants to pull it due west over sweet Gulf waters, where in reality it's just expanding bigger. The center is near teetering on shore's edge. That bay by Galveston should trick it to stay on land. Models keep it on land..though they don't depict it for what it is now. Getting to be a nail bitter.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Globall SST Anomaly
March 29, 2012

Looking at the eastern atlantic, you can see that the SST's warmed a bit over the past week
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I don't think it will after this system. Probably took most of the energy with it. It is a pretty impressive little storm. Wish it would have been farther north...


Too small, if this would of been large, this would of been a significant event
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Incredible what is going on here. Look at the photos of those houses with the mud.

Link

What's the latest on Puerto Rico?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
Quoting RitaEvac:
Friday was supposed to be our rainiest day, now I wonder if it will happen


I don't think it will after this system. Probably took most of the energy with it. It is a pretty impressive little storm. Wish it would have been farther north...
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Good afternoon all!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
Friday was supposed to be our rainiest day, now I wonder if it will happen
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

.A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES...DIMINISHING WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.

PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-300230-
/O.UPG.KCTP.FZ.A.0002.120330T0700Z-120330T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0002.120330T0700Z-120330T1300Z/
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LE BANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...L EBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
217 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES MAY
DIP TO THE UPPER 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS...BUT HOLD IN THE MID
30S IN THE CITIES.

* TIMING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ANY TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED IF NOT
PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL OR
GARDENING INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.

&&

$$

DANGELO
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:
boy we sure coud use that rain in florida
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Bulk of the weather is offshore, dang it, wanted all the heavy rain we could get

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487. txjac
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That is one mean thunderstorm complex!


Wish that I was home and able to enjoy it ...on the sofa with a good book and a glass of wine.

Unfortunately I'm in Oklahoma for work this week
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 290904
SPC AC 290904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5
/MON 4-2/ WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE EJECTING WRN SYSTEM...BUT
DEVIATIONS FROM DAY 6 /TUE 4-3/ ONWARD -- AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES
AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- RESULT IN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER 2/3 OF THE PERIOD.

WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DAY 4 /SUN 4-1/...PRIMARILY
NEAR A WARM FRONT INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM STILL OVER THE ROCKIES SUGGESTS
THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST DAY 5...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
ROUGHLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO E TX. WHILE
SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAR N AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE
OZARKS SWD/SEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
HERE...STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION LIKELY AND ASSOCIATED
THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THREAT WILL
SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND AL DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO/OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AGAIN HOWEVER...WITH
MINOR DEVIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTION EXPANDING DAY 6...WILL NOT
AREALLY HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS WHICH MAY BE EVENTUALLY ADDED
NEAR/E OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LARGE-SCALE/PERSISTENT RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LULL
IN CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS
LIKELY -- AND THUS PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR CONFINED
TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 03/29/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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485. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
3:00 AM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.2N 110.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 109.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.6N 108.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
DANG It
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Alright..despite my absence in previous days, I managed to put a tropical blog together to get back in my Wunderground rythm. Link
to it:)
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I just posted the below

Some Tropical Activity might be coming....a piece of energy is moving off the Texas Coastline....this piece of energy will likely move inland into the Mississippi area and combine with a COLD FRONT and JET STREAM.... a SEVERE WEATHER EVENT for the SOUTH could be coming!....Tim
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Quoting Ameister12:

Here's the link.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Thank you!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837


It's not even that organized...
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A FEW WRF MODELS HIT THE
REDEVELOPMENT HARD OVER THE IAH/HOU/CXO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL PAN
OUT GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.


Storms are starting to fire up over downtown Houston fairly quickly now..
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like banding is developing on the NW side of that meso-low... Reminds me of two systems from last year, one in June and the other in October.



From Galveston disco:

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND BOW OUT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARING LBX SHORTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE IAH TERMINALS NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER S/W TRACKS EAST. A FEW WRF MODELS HIT THE
REDEVELOPMENT HARD OVER THE IAH/HOU/CXO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL PAN
OUT GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.

Just a strong MCS accompanied by a shortwave trough.


Isn't a Meso-low a strong Mesoscale low pressure?
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Quoting Patrap:

Looks like Humberto's little brother
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like banding is developing on the NW side of that meso-low... Reminds me of two systems from last year, one in June and the other in October.



From Galveston disco:

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND BOW OUT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARING LBX SHORTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE IAH TERMINALS NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER S/W TRACKS EAST. A FEW WRF MODELS HIT THE
REDEVELOPMENT HARD OVER THE IAH/HOU/CXO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL PAN
OUT GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.

Just a strong MCS accompanied by a shortwave trough.
A-HA..!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like banding is developing on the NW side of that meso-low... Reminds me of two systems from last year, one in June and the other in October.

Quoting Patrap:


Dunno, Im not a met,....I think from the Galveston disco it may be a "weak vorticity max".




From Galveston disco:

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND BOW OUT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARING LBX SHORTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE IAH TERMINALS NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER S/W TRACKS EAST. A FEW WRF MODELS HIT THE
REDEVELOPMENT HARD OVER THE IAH/HOU/CXO TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN EAST WEST BOUNDARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL PAN
OUT GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE MESOSCALE FEATURE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES.

Just a strong MCS accompanied by a shortwave trough.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's starting to turn into a nice little system... Do you have a link on where I can get some of those images? The site I usually use hasn't been working for a few days.

Here's the link.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Quoting hydrus:
Would that system be considered a meso-low.?


I think you could consider this a meso-low. That squall line has been going for quite sometime. It is also small enough. I don't see how it couldn't be..
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Quoting Ameister12:

That's starting to turn into a nice little system... Do you have a link on where I can get some of those images? The site I usually use hasn't been working for a few days.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting Patrap:


Dunno, Im not a met,....I think from the Galveston disco it may be a "weak vorticity max".


Looks impressive anyway, and lotsa moisture in front to fuel more storms...Maybe.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
NWS still has next weeks low quite strong.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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