February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012

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February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

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Monster solar tornadoes discovered



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Clear night, but too much light contamination....

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The models have no clue on its intensity. 18z GFS initializes it an an almost laughable 1008 mb and deepens it to just 1000 mb, which it is probably already past, and the Euro solution is similar, so intensity forecasting will be tricky.

Agreed...good evening guys!
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Quoting Skyepony:


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..


Well, there are always exceptions :)
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Quoting hydrus:
I think Agriculture is a cool field. I new a man who graduated from the University of Mexico. He was one of the greatest people I have ever known. He grew plants that not only exceptional, but the food that came from them was nothing short of amazing. Delicious and bursting with flavor.Much better than supermarket veggies.


Mexicans make great food in general. I grew up in southern AZ and have a big love for mexican food :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:





That last image is pretty impressive
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643




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Quoting sunlinepr:


CUANTO HA LLOVIDO?

Segn los estimados registrados por el Servicio Geolgico de Estados Unidos (USGS) municipios del centro norte de la Isla han experimentado las lluvias ms significativas en las pasadas 24 horas: Utuado 12.62", Jayuya 8.13", Lares 6.56", Naguabo 6.22", Aasco 5.38" y Ro Grande 5.23".

USGS Estimates for PR for the past 24 hrs.:

Utuado 12.62",
Jayuya 8.13",
Lares 6.56",
Naguabo 6.22",
Aasco 5.38"
Ro Grande 5.23



Incredible amounts and despite landslides,many areas that flooded,homes that were filled with mud,the good news is no casualties have occured and I hope it stays that way until the trough goes away and allows dry air to come. And all of this is happening in the driest month of the year in Puerto Rico.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting Skyepony:


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..
I think Agriculture is a cool field. I new a man who graduated from the University of Mexico. He was one of the greatest people I have ever known. He grew plants that not only exceptional, but the food that came from them was nothing short of amazing. Delicious and bursting with flavor.Much better than supermarket veggies.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20563
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.


Yeah I'm definitely going to stick it out, meteorology is my passion and always has been, my earliest memories as a kid were thunderstorms including a lightning strike that hit a tree in my yard at just 3. I'll stay up till 4 am just to track a line of strong thunderstorms for fun!


I remember literally staying up 36 hours during a tropical cyclone, and being outside in it for the majority of the time, only coming inside to check the computer for radar updates and other info and to eat a meal or 2.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
WTH is going on



Little weak low passing through

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657. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.2N 110.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44905
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



1st two have already been answered, but the extra credit isn't. I think it would put the ITCZ further north than usual, but combined with the increase in shear due to El Niño should cause a less active Cape Verde season...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There has been a slow improvemt in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR


¿CUANTO HA LLOVIDO?

Según los estimados registrados por el Servicio Geológico de Estados Unidos (USGS) municipios del centro norte de la Isla han experimentado las lluvias más significativas en las pasadas 24 horas: Utuado 12.62", Jayuya 8.13", Lares 6.56", Naguabo 6.22", Añasco 5.38" y Río Grande 5.23".

USGS Estimates for PR for the past 24 hrs.:

Utuado 12.62",
Jayuya 8.13",
Lares 6.56",
Naguabo 6.22",
Añasco 5.38"
Río Grande 5.23

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, I am pursuing the bachelor meteorology degree, however I'm still at community college level for now to save my money and complete as much material as possible here first. I want to finish my degree by transferring to FSU.

Anyways I guess it all depends on the professor when it comes to Calculus. Because I felt Calc 1 and 2 for me weren't too bad, however, Calc 3 for me has been MUCH more challenging. I guess its because I'm struggling to picture graphs properly which are required for multiple integration, that is my one weakness in mathematics, I have a real hard time interpreting complex graphs properly, likewise the same with drawing a graph properly from a given integral and its equations/boundaries. Doing this is crucial for setting up integrals and that's my struggle right now. Integration, and memorizing mathematical formulas and patterns I'm fine with though.


Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.
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WTH is going on

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



1. The areas south of the Azores islands and the gulf stream off the northeast CONUS are both above average

2. Warming waters in EPac are sign of a forming El Nino

Extra credit: I havnt a clue what that effects lol
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There has been a slow improvement in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR.


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC095-151-300230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0089.120330T0032Z-120330T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MAUNABO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 830 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1799 6593 1807 6600 1809 6597 1810 6595
1809 6594 1811 6593 1806 6581 1798 6591

$$

OMS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting Chucktown:


When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.


Yeah, I am pursuing the bachelor meteorology degree, however I'm still at community college level for now to save my money and complete as much material as possible here first. I want to finish my degree by transferring to FSU.

Anyways I guess it all depends on the professor when it comes to Calculus. Because I felt Calc 1 and 2 for me weren't too bad, however, Calc 3 for me has been MUCH more challenging. I guess its because I'm struggling to picture graphs properly which are required for multiple integration, that is my one weakness in mathematics, I have a real hard time interpreting complex graphs properly, likewise the same with drawing a graph properly from a given integral and its equations/boundaries. Doing this is crucial for setting up integrals and that's my struggle right now. Integration, and memorizing mathematical formulas and patterns I'm fine with though.
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There has been a slow improvement in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
817 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-103-119-300215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0088.120330T0017Z-120330T0215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
817 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...FAJARDO...CAROLINA.. .LUQUILLO...
RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 815 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6587 1838 6574 1837 6568 1837 6562
1834 6563 1830 6562 1819 6568 1840 6599
1845 6597

$$

OMS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
Quoting cyclonekid:


How shall we respond to this? :P

Complete sentences.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31589
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



How shall we respond to this? :P

1. Differences: The Caribbean and GOM is much warmer than last year; the breeding grounds are much cooler this year than they were last year.

Similarities: You use the same warm tongue off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic.

2. The warming in the Nio region signifies the end of our La Nia period. This means that we are in for a weak El Nio to neutral event for the 2012 Hurricane Season (ATL).

Extra Credit: The Gulf of Guinea being cool conveys that the tropical wave train will be farther north, similar to last year. However, these waves won't be able to develop in the normal area of breeding grounds due to the increase of wind shear this upcoming hurricane season.

Good enough? ;)
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P





Pretty easy? That's all relative my friend, most think Algebra is too hard. In fact, most people I've met think I'm a genius for even being in Calc 3 and taking all the physics intense science courses I must take, then I tell them that mathematics actually get much worse than that, and well, I'm quite far from being genius, lol.


Its weird how everyone's brain is "wired" differently, I've met some people who are great at math whom I wouldn't consider particularly intelligent, while I've met people who struggle with algebra whom I would definitely consider above average intelligence.


Academia ability doesn't necessarily define intelligence contrary to some might think. Also, although it definitely helps "weed" out those who won't perform properly in their profession, I've actually met people who get good grades yet seem to not have much real life ability to apply the material.


For example, being very interested in science, I like to talk very much about the details with fellow students as long as the student also wants to, lol. Well, I remember talking to one student in General Chemistry last year who had straight A's in the class yet when I talked to him he seems to not only have no interest in the material but didn't seem to know much about it either surprisingly.


That's not the first time I've experienced that. Also, in my Calc 3 class there is a student who isn't getting great grades in it(good enough to pass) but seems to be very intelligent and very well knowledgeable about physics.
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Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31589
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P




When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.
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Tropical Storm Pakhar



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Quoting hydrus:
One would think Calculus 3 is not considered a commonly required course. I would bet there are some serious Science and Physics geeks in your class.:)


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P


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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/30/world/asia/inquir y-suggests-worse-damage-at-japan-nuclear-plant.htm l?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss




Inquiry Suggests Worse Damage at Japan Nuclear Plant

The damage to the core of at least one of the meltdown-stricken reactors at Fukushima could be worse than previously thought, raising new concerns over the plant’s stability and complicating the post-disaster cleanup, a recent internal investigation has shown.
[...] Officials at Tepco had previously said that operation was succeeding, and that the damaged fuel rods were safely submerged in water.
But earlier this week, an examination at one of the reactors showed the water level at its core to be lower than levels previously estimated, raising fears that the broken-down remnants of the uranium fuel rods there may not be completely submerged and in danger of heating up again.
Cooling water at the plant’s No. 2 reactor came up to just two feet from the bottom of the reactor’s containment vessel, a beaker-shaped structure that encases the fuel rods. That was below the 33-foot level estimated by officials when the government declared the plant stable in December. [...]
Where’s the Water Going?
The low water levels also raise concerns that radioactive water may be leaking out of the reactor at a higher rate than previously thought, possibly into a part of the reactor known as the suppression chamber, and into a network of pipes and chambers under the plant — or into the ocean.
At the No. 2 reactor, workers still pump about nine tons of water an hour into the core to keep it cool.

No. 4 Threat

The spent fuel rods stored at the No. 4 reactor pose a particular threat, experts say, because they lie unprotected outside the unit’s containment vessel. Tokyo Electric has been racing to fortify the crumpled outer shell of the reactor, and to keep the tank fed with water. But should a problem also arise with cooling the spent fuel, the plant could run the risk of another colossal radiation leak, experts say.

Kazuhiko Kudo, a professor of nuclear engineering at Kyushu University in southwestern Japan
[Kudo] said it was now suspect whether the nuclear fuel was being adequately cooled. And if some parts of the fuel remained above water, there was a risk that the fuel could again heat up and melt. That could set off a dangerous spike in the pressure inside the containment vessel, and lead to more radiation escaping the reactor, he said.
“The plant is still in a precarious state”
“Unfortunately, all we can do is to keep pumping water inside the reactors and hope we don’t have another big earthquake”

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Quoting nigel20:

TS Pakhar is looking good

The models have no clue on its intensity. 18z GFS initializes it an an almost laughable 1008 mb and deepens it to just 1000 mb, which it is probably already past, and the Euro solution is similar, so intensity forecasting will be tricky.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
636. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
What.? No one majoring in Agriculture or Anthropology.? :o


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..
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635. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F
9:00 AM FST March 30 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 17F (1000 hPa) located at 19.5S 176.2E is reported as slowly moving southward. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 12 hours. Deep convection lies to the east of low level circulation center. Tropical depression 17 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44905
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest JTWC warning puts Pakhar at 55 knots, forecast to peak at 70 knots before landfall.


TS Pakhar is looking good
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Latest JTWC warning puts Pakhar at 55 knots, forecast to peak at 70 knots before landfall.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 646 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 645 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 644 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 641 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 631 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 629 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 626 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 623 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 623 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 610 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 609 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
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I am pretty sure the upper storm is getting choked off by the lower one, which is still mostly in the air.

The lower one now has higher cloud tops, and more open space.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting Jedkins01:



Look at radar velocity though, the rotation is too broad and not organized enough for there to be a tornado yet. However, the thunderstorm does posses a meso and as a result it is certainly capable of producing a tornado very quickly with rotation already present.

There was a wall cloud and scud then. With a very favorable environment farther east, I'd be very surprised if this didn't go on to eventually produce a tornado.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31589
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's in southeast Nebraska.


yah i found it now, i was looking in Kansas before :/

Looks like a short burst of rotation, it may be getting cut off by the storm below it, rotation on that storm increasing.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm in Nebraska needs a tornado warning.




Look at radar velocity though, the rotation is too broad and not organized enough for there to be a tornado yet. However, the thunderstorm does posses a meso and as a result it is certainly capable of producing a tornado very quickly with rotation already present.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i dont see a storm like that on wundergrounds radar, which one is it?

It's in southeast Nebraska.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31589
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ben McMillian is tracking that Nebraska supercell, and there is a lowering wall cloud associated with it. There is large hail hitting the vehicle as well.


i dont see a storm like that on wundergrounds radar, which one is it?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
NW MO in a few hours.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Storm in Nebraska needs a tornado warning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31589
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the most intense storm I've ever seen.

77.5 dBz



Be careful though, reflectivity can be deceiving, while 77 is disturbingly high, a reflectivity of 77 DBZ likely means unusually large hail, and not necessarily an unusually severe thunderstorm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.