February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012

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February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

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One can see the beginning of the intense low on the CRAS W.V.forecast loop..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
better detail images coming up for PR
Any news?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.//MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

AMZ732-735-282345-
549 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WATERS...

AT 542 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...OVER THE
SOUTHERN NEARSHORE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...JUST SOUTH OF THE
MUNICIPALITY OF SALINAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
WITHIN THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. .AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW. COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS BETWEEN 0-3 KM AGL ARE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE FOCUS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW...THEREFORE...HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
WILL BE EXPECTED.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW...INDUCING A NORTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTHERN OF THE AREA AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST
AND GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER EVERY AFTERNOON PREVAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 28/22Z IN
SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT RIGHT NOW IN PREDOMINANT WIND WAVES BUT A
SMALL NE SWELL IS NOW BEING OBSERVED AT BUOYS 41043 AND 41053.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY TOMORROW IN NORTH SWELLS WITH
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
better detail images coming up for PR
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
733 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC021-047-061-105-135-290230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0076.120328T2333Z-120329T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-GUAYNABO PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
733 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...GUAYNABO...NARANJITO AND TOA ALTA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 732 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6632 1838 6615 1836 6614 1831 6612
1827 6631

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It throws a curve ball for sure. While the Sahel is in a drought, surely the northward progression of the ITCZ would eliminate that drough, allowing for more healthy tropical waves to emerge.


It depends on how strong the drought is.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What about the East Coast? from Miami to the Carolina/Virgina Border.

I think it will depend on where they form. Many of the analogue this year featured storm formations along or north of 25 °N. This typically would lead storms to recurve before making it to the USA coastline. However, it also depends on the steering patterns at that time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic as a whole has warmed.
yes response has been good with spring sun the quickening when it comes to sst's


also storm totals over pr reaching extreme near or exceeding 11 inches
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting KoritheMan:


The Gulf of Guinea remains remarkably cold:



That might enhance Sahel precipitation by promoting a northward progression of the ITCZ, which would make meteorological sense. But the ongoing drought and the cool eastern Atlantic will likely keep Cape Verde numbers to a minimum.

It throws a curve ball for sure. While the Sahel is in a drought, surely the northward progression of the ITCZ would eliminate that drough, allowing for more healthy tropical waves to emerge.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They should continue, especially as we head into April.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season, Kori? The theme, at least to me, this year appears to be "less storms but a greater probability of landfalls". I do not think we will see El Niño until August/September or so, and my main landfall areas this year look to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.


What about the East Coast? from Miami to the Carolina/Virgina Border.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Yes Keeper,a very dangerous situation is unfolding here. If there is news about flooding,I will post it.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
I know we have a colder MDR this year, but could someone comment on conditions in Africa this year vs. last year? SAL, Sahal, Gulf of Guinea temps etc. I remember Levi last year had a comment or two on the Gulf of Guinea going into the season. Perhaps I am too early.

Thanks.


OT - for anyone interested in a Fukushima update, here's a Link. It appears that cleanup will be somewhat more problematic due to extremely high radiation levels.


The Gulf of Guinea remains remarkably cold:



That might enhance Sahel precipitation by promoting a northward progression of the ITCZ, which would make meteorological sense. But the ongoing drought and the cool eastern Atlantic will likely keep Cape Verde numbers to a minimum.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
In the 18z GFS run i see the highest severe weather threat across OK, MO, AR, TN, and MS.

Capes decrease as the system moves east and so does shear, and the backs edge of the storms barely ride along the shear, so i am thinking squall line, with, given the fairly good hodographs, some embedded spinups, and maybe a supercell.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
I know we have a colder MDR this year, but could someone comment on conditions in Africa this year vs. last year? SAL, Sahal, Gulf of Guinea temps etc. I remember Levi last year had a comment or two on the Gulf of Guinea going into the season. Perhaps I am too early.

Thanks.


OT - for anyone interested in a Fukushima update, here's a Link. It appears that cleanup will be somewhat more problematic due to extremely high radiation levels.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
YEP

10 DAYS AGO

TODAY

The Atlantic as a whole has warmed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
NINO REGIONS

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
707 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC011-027-081-083-099-131-290200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0075.120328T2307Z-120329T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-CAMUY PR-
707 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 706 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 1000 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6711 1837 6698 1836 6683 1826 6684
1826 6710

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We already have.
YEP

10 DAYS AGO

TODAY
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #160, thanks for publishing the link to the Crown Weather tropical discussion.

Mr. Lightbown's article hit home for me on at least a couple points: Number of storms, by itself, is far from the whole story. (An astonishingly low percentage of the overall number of storms of the last two years hit the U.S.) Contrast that with some of Lightbown's analog years, where only a handful of storms formed but the season featured multiple hits on the coast -- sometimes multiple hits in a single state (hello, Florida!).

BTW, I was noticing some parallels in our local weather to what was experienced here in 1945 and 1946 -- one of Crown's analog years -- even before seeing the article today.

I for one am unnerved by how warm the Gulf of Mexico is this year. True, I wistfully stare at the dry skies over Cape Coral every afternoon and long for an early start to rainy season here. But I also worry that we may see a hurricane season with perhaps half the number of last couple years' storms but three-quarters of those impacting the U.S.

Before anyone howls, I'm NOT saying U.S. landfalls are more important than landfalls anywhere else! I'm really just saying, "why does everyone act like this season is already a bust just because everyone thinks 'THE NUMBERS' will be less this year than last year?" And, isn't anyone else unnerved by the fact that the current water temps map for the Gulf looks more like a typical May?

I've not seen anybody say that.

Nice post, btw.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Re: #160, thanks for publishing the link to the Crown Weather tropical discussion.

Mr. Lightbown's article hit home for me on at least a couple points: Number of storms, by itself, is far from the whole story. (An astonishingly low percentage of the overall number of storms of the last two years hit the U.S.) Contrast that with some of Lightbown's analog years, where only a handful of storms formed but the season featured multiple hits on the coast -- sometimes multiple hits in a single state (hello, Florida!).

BTW, I was noticing some parallels in our local weather to what was experienced here in 1945 and 1946 -- one of Crown's analog years -- even before seeing the article today.

I for one am unnerved by how warm the Gulf of Mexico is this year. True, I wistfully stare at the dry skies over Cape Coral every afternoon and long for an early start to rainy season here. But I also worry that we may see a hurricane season with perhaps half the number of last couple years' storms but three-quarters of those impacting the U.S.

Before anyone howls, I'm NOT saying U.S. landfalls are more important than landfalls anywhere else! I'm really just saying, "why does everyone act like this season is already a bust just because everyone thinks 'THE NUMBERS' will be less this year than last year?" And, isn't anyone else unnerved by the fact that the current water temps map for the Gulf looks more like a typical May?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They should continue, especially as we head into April.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season, Kori? The theme, at least to me, this year appears to be "less storms but a greater probability of landfalls". I do not think we will see El Niño until August/September or so, and my main landfall areas this year look to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.


Sounds about right.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


We already have.

They should continue, especially as we head into April.

What are your thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season, Kori? The theme, at least to me, this year appears to be "less storms but a greater probability of landfalls". I do not think we will see El Niño until August/September or so, and my main landfall areas this year look to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Something for everyone today..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is getting bad and as mentioned earlier,is the supposed dry month here. Thank you K for that explanation.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
640 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC039-054-091-101-145-290045-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0070.000000T0000Z-120329T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
640 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 845 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1833 6659 1837 6649 1835 6639 1827 6641
1825 6652

$$

OMS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will see these Sea Surface Temperatures significantly rise over the next few weeks.



We already have.
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We will see these Sea Surface Temperatures significantly rise over the next few weeks.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Just turn "Severe On" at the top of the NEXRAD box after you click on the radar site you want.


No i mean reading the warning,
like the NWS in Peachtree City has issued a Tornado Warning for....
I know you can see where the warnings are, but i wish they could be easily related to what they are for.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This storm in Eastern Kansas may need a tornado warning soon.


It does. The rotation is getting stronger.
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45000 ft tops on the Kansas storm. I feel incomplete without GRLevel2 anymore.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wunderground should make their radar so that you can read watches and warnings, like in GRLevel2, without having to go to the warnings page and scroll through the states. That would be awesome.


Just turn "Severe On" at the top of the NEXRAD box after you click on the radar site you want.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Can anyone tell me why so much rain in a time where is suppose to be dry?


If I had to guess, I would say that because of the big ridge over the eastern United States, mid-level troughing rules downstream, in the Caribbean. These aren't synoptic scale, but enough to enhance the rainfall over Puerto Rico. Without bothering to look too deeply into it, that's probably why. That, and sea surface temperatures are on a quick upward swing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 550 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OLATHE KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 112...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT IN NE KS...WHERE THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY.
MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-45 KT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT MAY
TEND TO LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY. LIKEWISE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THUS LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS EVENING...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH WAA OVER THE BOUNDARY COULD PROMOTE
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF A SMALL MCS
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28015.


...THOMPSON
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
They keep popping up.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
633 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC029-031-061-087-119-127-139-290030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0074.120328T2233Z-120329T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
633 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO
GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 631 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 830 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6588 1844 6584 1841 6583 1829 6610
1837 6614 1846 6594 1845 6592 1846 6590

$$

EM
Can anyone tell me why so much rain in a time where is suppose to be dry?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This storm in Eastern Kansas may need a tornado warning soon.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
They keep popping up.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
633 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC029-031-061-087-119-127-139-290030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0074.120328T2233Z-120329T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
633 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO
GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 631 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 830 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6588 1844 6584 1841 6583 1829 6610
1837 6614 1846 6594 1845 6592 1846 6590

$$

EM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
I would say that the Great Lakes are going to have storm warnings.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB...MUCH OF NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282230Z - 290030Z

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
BECOME POSSIBLE AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS E CNTRL
KS WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE. CONVERGENCE ALONG A BROAD WARM
FRONT AND STEADY ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 20 KT SWLY 850 MB
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MORE STORMS TO FORM THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION MAY INCREASE OVER
NERN KS AND NWRN MO.

SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT STRONG BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN
LOW LEVEL VEERING AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE. RATHER SLOW
MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ARISE IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A SMALL
MCS.

..JEWELL.. 03/28/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
And again, it does not look so bad on water vapor pic....Certainly looks nasty on radar.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
It has moved back north to around MO, but storm initiation looks to be further east.

For what day? The outbreak would begin across the Central Plains first..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting Ameister12:
Major flash flooding happening in Puerto Rico.



And here is a flash flood warning for that area.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC013-065-141-290115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0007.120328T2210Z-120329T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO
UTUADO
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 605 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS
RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...
WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS
ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6681 1836 6661 1826 6662 1826 6681

$$

OM

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
It has moved back north to around MO, but storm initiation looks to be further east.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Major flash flooding happening in Puerto Rico.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So far the only thing i can see is that it is negatively tilted and the Low lifts to the Great lakes and fizzels out before a new one starts to form.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

PRC073-290000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0073.120328T2204Z-120329T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JAYUYA PR-
604 PM AST WED MAR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
JAYUYA

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 603 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 800 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6655 1824 6656 1820 6653 1820 6664
1824 6661 1824 6660 1828 6659 1830 6657

$$

OMS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13302
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Oh I haven't seen this run, I'm just saying it usually does that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He was not saying this current run, but the 18Z model runs in general. Just like 00Z and 12Z runs are usually more reliable because they get actual upper air observations.


Ohhhhhhh, I get it. I see what you mean. :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
Wunderground should make their radar so that you can read watches and warnings, like in GRLevel2, without having to go to the warnings page and scroll through the states. That would be awesome.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.