Hard freeze hits Midwest and Northeast fruit trees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:36 PM GMT on March 27, 2012

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Large portions of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and cold temperatures will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry, but it will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known. It would take several nights of temperatures in the 20s to cause a more significant billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.

During the remainder of this week, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than they were this morning, so the freeze damage will be limited compared to 2007. However, we still have two more months to go this spring when temperatures commonly fall below freezing. Plants will steadily grow more susceptible to cold temperatures in the coming weeks as the growing season progresses, and the odds of more destructive frosts and freezes for the Midwest and Northeast fruit industry are high.


Figure 1. Low temperatures this morning dipped below 30 degrees over Eastern Michigan, Northeast Ohio, Northern West Virginia, and much of Pennsylvania, in regions where spring bloom was well-advanced due to last week's record "Summer in March" heat wave. Widespread agricultural damage likely occurred in these areas.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Scotland records its all-time warmest March temperature
The ridge of high pressure that brought "Summer in March" to the U.S. last week moved over Western Europe over the weekend, bringing sunny skies and record-breaking high temperatures to the U.K. Scotland broke its record for hottest March temperature on record on Sunday, when the mercury hit 22.8°C at Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire. The record lasted only one day, as a new high of 22.9°C was recorded in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, on Monday. That record also lasted just one day, as Aboyne, Aberdeenshire has hit 23.4°C today. The previous March record in Scotland was 22.2°C at Gordon Castle (Morayshire) in March 1957, and at Strachan (Kincardineshire) in March 1965.

Canada's 1926 all-time March temperature record questioned
I reported last week that the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012 was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March. Environment Canada lists the hottest March temperature as a 31.1°C at Beaver Creek on Vancouver Island, BC on March 29th, 1926. However, weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has looked into this record, and concluded that it is likely bogus. A station just a few miles away at Port Alberni measured a much cooler high temperature of 23.3°C that day, and the temperature range between the high and low temperature at Beaver Creek was almost 30°C, which is far too great for a station so close to the ocean. Such large differences between min and max temperature on sunny days usually commonly imply poor siting of the temperature instrument. He maintains that the highest March temperature in Canada should be the 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg, with the second highest being the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Pink Springtime! (gardner48197)
Pink Springtime!
Pretty little blossoms (colamom)
all in a row. I don't remember this old Redbud tree ever having all the little clusters of blooms on the branches. I thought it was pretty.
Pretty little blossoms
()

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Quoting Neapolitan:
The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.

So sad, sorry to hear that
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Where was (or is) that Outbreak supposed to take place, exactly?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing last night for next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.

Good afternoon. I think that's why we don't trust the models that far out. 18z GFs could easily show the same mega outbreak it showed last night. I don't trust the current solution any more than last night's.
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The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.

Good afternoon
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
On March 27, 1912, first lady Helen Herron Taft and the wife of Japan's ambassador to the United States, Viscountess Chinda, planted the first of 3,000 cherry trees given to us as a gift by the mayor of Tokyo on the north bank of Washington D.C.'s Tidal Basin.

A work of great beauty was begun. 100 years ago today.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.


I agree huge differences even at day 5 between the models. All I know is it's hot here in FL and it's going to get hotter as highs are expected to around 90 from Thursday on. It's 88 here right now.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing last night for next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Richat Structure

It's origin is still debatable......thanks VAbeachhurricanes
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
EWX radar is down due to the first dual polarization upgrade of the 88D (Nexrad).

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Euro is back on to a deep push of Arctic Air across the eastern US.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Fierce Old Warplane Has a New Mission: Flying Into the Hearts of Thunderstorms

Equipped with heavy armor and an impressively 
powerful cannon,
the A-10 Thunderbolt was built to survive.

by Adam Hadhazy
From Discovery March 2012 issue;
published online March 27, 2012


The National Science Foundation provided $10.9 million to convert an old military A-10 Thunderbolt into the world’s most formidable storm-chasing research vessel, outfitted to withstand the lightning, turbulence, and hail that big clouds unleash. “The A-10 was designed to be shot at,” says Paul Smith, an atmospheric scientist at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, who helped acquire the aircraft.

The A-10 will replace the T-28 Trojan, which retired from chasing storms in 2005. It can soar more than eight miles high compared with the T-28’s five, carrying meteorological equipment into the tops of thunderheads where lightning is generated. Optical imagers will use lasers to cast shadows, capturing the motion of rain, hail, and snow. And the A-10 can stay aloft for three hours, three times as long as the T-28, allowing researchers to observe a storm’s full life cycle. The data could improve precipitation forecasts and models of hail formation, ultimately providing more accurate and timely warnings for hurricanes and other severe weather.
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Quoting nigel20:

Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?


Richat Structure
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Quoting nigel20:

Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?


No one knows
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Quoting RitaEvac:



Mar. 7, 2012: The Sahara remains amazing. A mysterious crater in Mauritania -- but what is it?



Feb. 10, 2012: Denmark with Copenhagen, Norway with Oslo, Sweden with Stockholm in the distance, northern Germany and beyond. And the Aurora Borealis of course.





Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bahrain, seen from space

The wise man builds his house on the rock...
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Dubai
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035



Mar. 7, 2012: The Sahara remains amazing. A mysterious crater in Mauritania -- but what is it?



Feb. 10, 2012: Denmark with Copenhagen, Norway with Oslo, Sweden with Stockholm in the distance, northern Germany and beyond. And the Aurora Borealis of course.




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Quoting RitaEvac:
Bahrain, seen from space


Nice man made islands....similar to those in Dubai
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Bahrain, seen from space

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Is supposed to be the dry period in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands,but this 2012 March has been all the contrary from that as rainfall records continue to be broken or close to do so.

Nigel,I am fine.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST MARCH
ON RECORD THE SAN JUAN OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION WITH A TOTAL OF
6.31 INCHES. THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1927 WHEN 9.38 INCHES
WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WITH 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1961 WHEN 4.37 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. CROIX...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WITH 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1985 WHEN 4.15 INCHES WERE MEASURED.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14270
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another round of heavy rains caused by the diurnal heating in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC025-063-077-085-129-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0059.120327T1825Z-120327T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS..POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1825 6585 1828 6584 1826 6582
1818 6583 1817 6586 1812 6588 1812 6592
1809 6594 1810 6598 1808 6602 1821 6611
1825 6608 1830 6607 1831 6605 1831 6597

$$

ROSA

Just had quite a downpour here Kingston.....what's up Tropicsweatherpr?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
After nice cool day of 82 on Monday it's now back to 87 approaching 90.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Patrap:
Larger wunderphoto




photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ


WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA successfully launched five suborbital sounding rockets this morning from its Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia as part of a study of the upper level jet stream. The first rocket was launched at 4:58 a.m. EDT and each subsequent rocket was launched 80 seconds apart. Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space.

Awesome pic
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's an incredible shot. He's selling them as metal prints, which should be really amazing.


You see the hail in the background?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Another round of heavy rains caused by the diurnal heating in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC025-063-077-085-129-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0059.120327T1825Z-120327T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS..POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1825 6585 1828 6584 1826 6582
1818 6583 1817 6586 1812 6588 1812 6592
1809 6594 1810 6598 1808 6602 1821 6611
1825 6608 1830 6607 1831 6605 1831 6597

$$

ROSA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14270
Quoting mettler:
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow


That's a hail core in the background.
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Quoting mettler:
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow
That's an incredible shot. He's selling them as metal prints, which should be really amazing.
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Larger wunderphoto




photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ


WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA successfully launched five suborbital sounding rockets this morning from its Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia as part of a study of the upper level jet stream. The first rocket was launched at 4:58 a.m. EDT and each subsequent rocket was launched 80 seconds apart. Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space.
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Quoting aspectre:
2 LargoFl: Good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people.

Hardly, it ain't as if many folks live in the tundra and taiga regions right now, or in the deserts and mountains. And certainly not much agriculture going on there.
Meanwhile the continental shelves become exposed, creating new land. And just the type of mostly gently sloping land that people like to live on, and the type that lends itself well to current agricultural practices.

header
Florida doubles in size. The Bahamas becomes about as large as Haiti in land area.
Arable land in California easily doubles.
Non-mountainous land on the west coast of Baja doubles. The Sea of Cortez between Baja and the rest of Mexico becomes land. In both cases, probably arable land because the TemperateZone moves southward and the mountainous spine of Baja becomes high enough to encourage greater precipitation. Arable land in Mexico at least doubles.
The southern half of Vietnam ("Asia's Rice Basket") increases by 50% or so. Though not to such a great extent, similar increases occur in Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma.
Arable land increases in Bangladesh by a third or so.
SriLanka becomes attached to the southern tip of India, greatly increasing the amount of arable land of both.
The SaharaDesert becomes grassland once again.
Etc...

Nice piece of inf....thanks for sharing it
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow
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Quoting Xandra:
Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect



That guy looks like Larry King. LOL
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Quoting ILwthrfan:





Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
2 LargoFl: Good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people.

Hardly, it ain't as if many folks live in the tundra and taiga regions right now, or in the deserts and mountains. And certainly not much agriculture going on there.
Meanwhile the continental shelves become exposed, creating new land.

And just the type of mostly gently sloping land that people like to live on, and the type that lends itself well to current agricultural practices.
Florida doubles in size. The Bahamas becomes about as large as Haiti in land area.
Arable land in California easily doubles.
Non-mountainous land on the west coast of Baja doubles. The Sea of Cortez between Baja and the rest of Mexico becomes land. In both cases, probably arable land because the TemperateZone moves southward and the mountainous spine of Baja becomes high enough to encourage greater precipitation. Arable land in Mexico comes close to doubling.
The southern half of Vietnam ("Asia's Rice Basket") increases by 50% or so. Though not to such a great extent, similar increases occur in Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma.
Arable land increases in Bangladesh by a third or so.
SriLanka becomes attached to the southern tip of India, greatly increasing its amount of arable land.
The northern SaharaDesert becomes grassland once again.
Etc...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Neapolitan:
After several weeks of wonkiness and several days of downtime, the NCDC has finally upgraded their Weather Extremes page, and what an upgrade it is: pages that were taking 30 seconds to a minute to render now pop up in under three. Not sure whether they upgraded hardware, or simply cache the most common requests, but the page is very quick and responsive.

Anyway, here's a map showing the month-to-date daily high maximum temperature records in the contiguous United States, all 7,097 of them so far:

temps"


...and here's a map showing the 265 month-to-date low minimum temperature records in the contiguous United States:

temps"

That's quite unbelievable....good afternoon guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect

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Quoting hydrus:
That is an incredible story.
Quoting hydrus:
That is an incredible story.


Amazing the will to survive.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Teen survives 26 days adrift in Pacific Ocean


That is an incredible story.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reproducing the runaway greenhouse effect of Venus on Earth is an extremely low probability event. It takes more than just CO2 to instigate such an effect, and given historical concentrations were much higher and the planet was much warmer it seems very unlikely. As much is stated in the IPCC report, along with with several research papers on the topic.

The worst case scenario would be that temperatures "run away" to the point of the Eocene maximum or so. But beyond that point it gets incredibly difficult to further increase temperature given that it takes a doubling of CO2 for approximately every 3C temperature rise. Jumps in short lived GHGs may be able to push it a little higher on a temporary basis, but it isn't sustainable. In order to generate a Venus like effect, the planet would need to become much warmer than that.
I do not believe we will look like Venus any time soon either....Wiki....Venus is the second planet from the Sun, orbiting it every 224.7 Earth days.[10] The planet is named after Venus, the Roman goddess of love and beauty. After the Moon, it is the brightest natural object in the night sky, reaching an apparent magnitude of −4.6, bright enough to cast shadows. Because Venus is an inferior planet from Earth, it never appears to venture far from the Sun: its elongation reaches a maximum of 47.8°. Venus reaches its maximum brightness shortly before sunrise or shortly after sunset, for which reason it has been known as the Morning Star or Evening Star.

Venus is classified as a terrestrial planet and it is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" owing to their similar size, gravity, and bulk composition. Venus is covered with an opaque layer of highly reflective clouds of sulfuric acid, preventing its surface from being seen from space in visible light. Venus has the densest atmosphere of all the terrestrial planets in the Solar System, consisting mostly of carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is 92 times that of the Earth. Venus has no carbon cycle to lock carbon back into rocks and surface features, nor does it seem to have any organic life to absorb it in biomass. Venus is believed to have previously possessed oceans,[12] but these evaporated as the temperature rose owing to the runaway greenhouse effect.[13] The water has most probably dissociated, and, because of the lack of a planetary magnetic field, the hydrogen has been swept into interplanetary space by the solar wind.[14] Venus's surface is a dry desertscape with many slab-like rocks, periodically refreshed by volcanism.Venus has an extremely dense atmosphere, which consists mainly of carbon dioxide and a small amount of nitrogen. The atmospheric mass is 93 times that of Earth's atmosphere while the pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times that at Earth's surface—a pressure equivalent to that at a depth of nearly 1 kilometer under Earth's oceans. The density at the surface is 65 kg/m³ (6.5% that of water). The CO2-rich atmosphere, along with thick clouds of sulfur dioxide, generates the strongest greenhouse effect in the Solar System, creating surface temperatures of over 460 °C (860 °F).[38] This makes the Venusian surface hotter than Mercury's which has a minimum surface temperature of −220 °C and maximum surface temperature of 420 °C,[39] even though Venus is nearly twice Mercury's distance from the Sun and thus receives only 25% of Mercury's solar irradiance. The surface of Venus is often said to resemble traditional accounts of Hell.[40]

Studies have suggested that several billion years ago the Venusian atmosphere was much more like Earth's than it is now, and that there were probably substantial quantities of liquid water on the surface, but a runaway greenhouse effect was caused by the evaporation of that original water, which generated a critical level of greenhouse gases in its atmosphere.[41] Although the surface conditions on the planet are no longer hospitable to any Earthlike life that may have formed prior to this event, the possibility that a habitable niche still exists in the lower and middle cloud layers of Venus can not yet be excluded.[42]

Thermal inertia and the transfer of heat by winds in the lower atmosphere mean that the temperature of the Venusian surface does not vary significantly between the night and day sides, despite the planet's extremely slow rotation. Winds at the surface are slow, moving at a few kilometers per hour, but because of the high density of the atmosphere at the Venusian surface, they exert a significant amount of force against obstructions, and transport dust and small stones across the surface. This alone would make it difficult for a human to walk through, even if the heat and lack of oxygen were not a problem.[43]

Above the dense CO2 layer are thick clouds consisting mainly of sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid droplets.[44][45] These clouds reflect about 60% of the sunlight that falls on them back into space, and prevent the direct observation of the Venusian surface in visible light. The permanent cloud cover means that although Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun, the Venusian surface is not as well lit. Strong 300 km/h winds at the cloud tops circle the planet about every four to five earth days.[46] Venusian winds move at up to 60 times the speed of the planet's rotation, while Earth's fastest winds are only 10% to 20% rotation speed.[47]

The surface of Venus is effectively isothermal; it retains a constant temperature not only between day and night but between the equator and the poles.[2][48] The planet's minute axial tilt (less than three degrees, compared with 23 degrees for Earth), also minimizes seasonal temperature variation.[49] The only appreciable variation in temperature occurs with altitude. In 1995, the Magellan probe imaged a highly reflective substance at the tops of the highest mountain peaks which bore a strong resemblance to terrestrial snow. This substance arguably formed from a similar process to snow, albeit at a far higher temperature. Too volatile to condense on the surface, it rose in gas form to cooler higher elevations, where it then fell as precipitation. The identity of this substance is not known with certainty, but speculation has ranged from elemental tellurium to lead sulfide (galena).[50]

The clouds of Venus are capable of producing lightning much like the clouds on Earth.[51] The existence of lightning had been controversial since the first suspected bursts were detected by the Soviet Venera probes. In 2006–07 Venus Express clearly detected whistler mode waves, the signatures of lightning. Their intermittent appearance indicates a pattern associated with weather activity. The lightning rate is at least half of that on Earth.[51] In 2007 the Venus Express probe discovered that a huge double atmospheric vortex exists at the south pole of the planet.[52][53]

Another discovery made by the Venus Express probe in 2011 is that an ozone layer exists high in the atmosphere of Venus.[54]
Magnetic field and core
Size comparison of terrestrial planets (left to right): Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars

In 1967, Venera-4 found that the Venusian magnetic field is much weaker than that of Earth. This magnetic field is induced by an interaction between the ionosphere and the solar wind,[55][56] rather than by an internal dynamo in the core like the one inside the Earth. Venus' small induced magnetosphere provides negligible protection to the atmosphere against cosmic radiation. This radiation may result in cloud-to-cloud lightning discharges.[57]

The lack of an intrinsic magnetic field at Venus was surprising given that it is similar to Earth in size, and was expected also to contain a dynamo at its core. A dynamo requires three things: a conducting liquid, rotation, and convection. The core is thought to be electrically conductive and, while its rotation is often thought to be too slow, simulations show that it is adequate to produce a dynamo.[58][59] This implies that the dynamo is missing because of a lack of convection in the Venusian core. On Earth, convection occurs in the liquid outer layer of the core because the bottom of the liquid layer is much hotter than the topVenus orbits the Sun at an average distance of about 108 million kilometers (about 0.7 AU) and completes an orbit every 224.65 days. Venus is the second planet from the Sun and it revolves round the Sun approximately 1.6 times (yellow trail) in Earth's 365 days (blue trail)
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok so what will happens with this global warming...found this great article...When we think of global warming, we think of things really sucking: rising oceans, catostrophic new weather patterns, disrupted food supply chains, Alaskan beach resorts. It’s all awful and very likely to happen, for global warming to hit its current worst case scenario. Because people are still pretty much idiots. Civilizations will reach concensus about climate change and science maybe actually being right about this too late to fix anything and. . . it’ll suck. You, or at least your offspring, will wind up a coastal refugee suffering through alternating droughts and epic, hand-of-god hurricane seasons. Meanwhile, the changing climate will cause a massive redistribution of food and water resources, leading to sustained global war. It’ll be brutal, but it won’t be as bad as the true worst case sceneario: runaway global warming, e.g. Venus syndrome.

Venus syndrome refers to the speculated early history of Venus, where trapped greenhouse gases created a positive feedback loop eventually boiling away the planet’s oceans and leaving it a miasmic 460°C hell featuring an almost entirely carbon dioxide atmosphere with a sheet of sulfur dioxide clouds on top. In terms of future inhabtability and life in general, Venus syndrome would be a bit more like sustained global nuclear war than much of what we imagine happening in our current climate change scheme.


Reproducing the runaway greenhouse effect of Venus on Earth is an extremely low probability event. It takes more than just CO2 to instigate such an effect, and given historical concentrations were much higher and the planet was much warmer it seems very unlikely. As much is stated in the IPCC report, along with with several research papers on the topic.

The worst case scenario would be that temperatures "run away" to the point of the Eocene maximum or so. But beyond that point it gets incredibly difficult to further increase temperature given that it takes a doubling of CO2 for approximately every 3C temperature rise. Jumps in short lived GHGs may be able to push it a little higher on a temporary basis, but it isn't sustainable. In order to generate a Venus like effect, the planet would need to become much warmer than that.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm on a web ex meeting about Flood Hazards using GIS, blog on one screen, and the lady talking and watching her screen on the other, fun stuff
that's no lady.. that's PATRAP!
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Quoting MahFL:
But the sea will rise gradually, so eg when YOUR house or business is underwater, you move somewhere else.
Also there is plenty of empty office space due to the resession.
Sigh...
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After several weeks of wonkiness and several days of downtime, the NCDC has finally upgraded their Weather Extremes page, and what an upgrade it is: pages that were taking 30 seconds to a minute to render now pop up in under three. Not sure whether they upgraded hardware, or simply cache the most common requests, but the page is very quick and responsive.

Anyway, here's a map showing the month-to-date daily high maximum temperature records in the contiguous United States, all 7,097 of them so far:

temps"


...and here's a map showing the 265 month-to-date low minimum temperature records in the contiguous United States:

temps"
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Sea Surface Temperatures in GOM,Caribbean and Western Atlantic.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14270
I'm on a web ex meeting about Flood Hazards using GIS, blog on one screen, and the lady talking and watching her screen on the other, fun stuff
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Quoting hydrus:
?


??

The 6z GFS is what i thought you were talking about, maybe you meant the 0Z run.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting nigel20:

How are you doing Cyclone2012?


Hola a los dos.

Hi to both.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14270

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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