Hard freeze likely to significantly damage Midwest fruit trees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:13 PM GMT on March 26, 2012

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After a week of temperatures in the 70s and 80s last week, it was a rude awakening for Michigan this morning, as temperatures across all but the extreme southern portions of the state dropped below freezing. Tonight, far colder temperatures in the low to mid-20s are expected across the entire state, and frosts and freezes are also expected in all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Maryland, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. A hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Temperatures as hot as 90° hit Michigan last week, and the National Weather Service in Detroit called the "Summer in March" heat wave "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago."


Figure 1. Frost and freeze advisories (white colors) are posted today for all of Lower Michigan and all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. Although freezing temperatures in the extreme Northeast are also expected, the growing season there has not yet begun, since last week's heat was not long-enough lived in that part of the country. Image taken from wunderground's severe weather map.

Fruit trees at risk
Tonight's hard freeze poses a significant danger to the region's fruit industry, and growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries are gearing up to battle the freezing temperatures by operating large fans and propane heaters in orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. The situation this week is similar to what occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops. In an interview with citizensvoice.com, Ian Merwin, Ph.D., a horticulturist who specializes in tree fruit at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., said, "I'm pretty sure this will be the earliest bloom, going back at least to the early 1900s. We are definitely in a very risky situation right now for the fruit crop in the whole Northeast."

Jeff Masters

Cherry Blossoms (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington, DC.
Cherry Blossoms
Pretty In Pink (THudgins)
A little hazy today, but still a good day to take in some views of the Apple Blossoms along route 45.
Pretty In Pink

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556. goodsign
12:45 AM GMT on March 31, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Gads. Where does that collective research called science come from - anthills? LOL Ain't gonna argue this no more.

ADD:


LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.


You sure like to laugh at people without even a discussion.
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
555. hydrus
3:10 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
This look familiar.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19540
554. Barefootontherocks
3:09 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
if you are going to be 'literal', then you miss your own point. he cited 'scientists' not 'science'. science is the collective of research about our physical environment, and the act of verifying thoughts about it's nature. scientists are people with those thoughts, perceptions, and opinions. the 'scientists' are not 'science'.
Gads. Where does that collective research called science come from - anthills? LOL Ain't gonna argue this no more.

ADD:
Quoting Minnemike:
if you are going to be 'literal', then you miss your own point. he cited 'scientists' not 'science'. science is the collective of research about our physical environment, and the act of verifying thoughts about it's nature. scientists are people with those thoughts, perceptions, and opinions. the 'scientists' are not 'science'.

so semantically speaking, Nea is a guy with an opinion that our natural environment is warming due to man, and that a scientific consensus is growing among scientists about 'that'.


LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17503
553. Xandra
3:07 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
New Blog
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
552. Minnemike
3:03 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

You missed my point. Of course man contributes. "The" and "is" makes Neo's statement absolute. The way that reads, man is causing all warming. By his second statement, the science, apparently, does not support this.

No thanks. Had enough of that stuff and enough English Usage for Today.

This re: previous comments.
Neo: Some people are consumed concerned with the idea that man is causing the warming only because he is. There's an increasingly smaller amount of doubt on that among scientists.
Here's a well-made video you might find interesting: Welcome to the Anthropocene.


Barefootontherocks' reply: Your comment contradicts itself. The way the first sentence reads, there is no other cause but man. Then you go on to mention the "increasingly smaller amount of doubt" among scientists "on that."

I'm confused, but maybe I need more coffee.
if you are going to be 'literal', then you miss your own point. he cited 'scientists' not 'science'. science is the collective of research about our physical environment, and the act of verifying thoughts about it's nature. scientists are people with those thoughts, perceptions, and opinions. the 'scientists' are not 'science'.

so semantically speaking, Nea is a guy with an opinion that our natural environment is warming due to man, and that a scientific consensus is growing among scientists about 'that'.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
551. hydrus
3:00 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
mitigation, quality of life, stewardship.. just a few ideas i'll float your way. why so scared? perhaps it's not fear, but a sense of responsibility to understand and discuss human impacts and the relationship we have with our surroundings. otherwise complete ignorance of the facts and lack of action could lead to unnecessary suffering, such that we ought use good stewardship to mitigate the potentiality of undue suffering.
yeah, we'll likely survive as a species, but what inheritance shall we provide? choices...
Good post Mike.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19540
550. Barefootontherocks
2:59 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Definitely more coffee. ;-)

I didn't say "only" mankind was responsible. I merely said that man is causing the warming. FWIW, my thoughts on the subject are aligned with John Holdren's:

"Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been... is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I'd say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming."


Nah. Had enough. I drink hi-test.

LOL "is" and "the." There ya go.
:)

Nice to see you say "fwiw" when stating your thoughts. John Holdren sounds interesting. Can you point me to the study/studies from which he reached drew those conclusions? I'd like to read it/them. Sincerely, bf
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17503
548. percylives
2:58 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:


"Automatically" is, in my opinion, a poor word choice.....

In 2007 the world burned 85.6 million barrels of oil every single day. That's 359,200,000 gallons a day.

1,312,248,000,000 gallons of oil a year.

And that's just the oil.

We are a major climate change force.



There are 42 gallons in each barrel so every day we burn 3,592,000,000 gallons.

And each gallon burned produces about 20 pounds of fossilized carbon dioxide which at standard temperature and pressure is about 160 cubic feet of greenhouse gas that wasn't in the atmosphere before. I once calculated the daily addition from all the oil burning to the atmosphere and it was something like 3.8 cubic miles of fossilized CO2. Daily.

And as Bob says, that's just the oil.

The Anthropocene, our epoch, is right on.

Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
546. hydrus
2:57 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting BenBIogger:


With a warm ENSO, we usually have an average rainy season during the summer.


And a nice wet winter.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19540
545. Barefootontherocks
2:50 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Minnemike:
try that coffee ;)
man>causality>>doubt about that relationship decreasing. seems pretty straightforward to me, in a non-contradictory way.
i will admit though, 'increasingly smaller' is not always the best way to state 'decreasing'
:P

You missed my point. Of course man contributes. "The" and "is" makes Neo's statement absolute. The way that reads, man is causing all warming. By his second statement, the science, apparently, does not support this.

No thanks. Had enough of that stuff and enough English Usage for Today.

This re: previous comments.
Neo: Some people are consumed concerned with the idea that man is causing the warming only because he is. There's an increasingly smaller amount of doubt on that among scientists.
Here's a well-made video you might find interesting: Welcome to the Anthropocene.


Barefootontherocks' reply: Your comment contradicts itself. The way the first sentence reads, there is no other cause but man. Then you go on to mention the "increasingly smaller amount of doubt" among scientists "on that."

I'm confused, but maybe I need more coffee.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17503
544. Xandra
2:49 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Climate change lags CO2 introduction by several decades. This is due to the fact that it takes time for the changes to fully impact the planet, including the triggered feedbacks. For example, it takes a while before the oceans (the largest heat sinks on the planet) to warm up and influence average global temperatures.

An estimated lag time in 40 years.

From the SkS post ”Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect” by Alan Marshall

”With 40 years between cause and effect, it means that average temperatures of the last decade are a result of what we were thoughtlessly putting into the air in the 1960’s. It also means that the true impact of our emissions over the last decade will not be felt until the 2040’s. This thought should send a chill down your spine!”
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
543. Minnemike
2:39 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
ok lets play this out, suppose some here are correct, Man himself is causing global warming..so the earth is warming, the northern ice sheets melt. the oceans rise 5-10 feet..ok its happened....now what?...so people have to move inland..so what?...with moving away from the coasts, less will worry about hurricanes, i never heard a person complain about hurricanes in lets say montana..I fully think, global warming is sooo much better...than global cooling...a global ice age would destroy man.. his cities gone, his cropland burried under 100 feet or more of ice..poof..goes man..so bring on global warming, so it gets hot, maybe rainfall will change...maybe even thousands will die, but..man will still survive..just my take on this..lets talk it out fully..what are you..so scared about global warming?
mitigation, quality of life, stewardship.. just a few ideas i'll float your way. why so scared? perhaps it's not fear, but a sense of responsibility to understand and discuss human impacts and the relationship we have with our surroundings. otherwise complete ignorance of the facts and lack of action could lead to unnecessary suffering, such that we ought use good stewardship to mitigate the potentiality of undue suffering.
yeah, we'll likely survive as a species, but what inheritance shall we provide? choices...
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
542. Neapolitan
2:32 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Your comment contradicts itself. The way the first sentence reads, there is no other cause but man. Then you go on to mention the "increasingly smaller amount of doubt" among scientists "on that."

I'm confused, but maybe I need more coffee.
Definitely more coffee. ;-)

I didn't say "only" mankind was responsible. I merely said that man is causing the warming. FWIW, my thoughts on the subject are aligned with John Holdren's:

"Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been... is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I'd say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming."
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
541. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
ok lets play this out, suppose some here are correct, Man himself is causing global warming..so the earth is warming, the northern ice sheets melt. the oceans rise 5-10 feet..ok its happened....now what?...so people have to move inland..so what?...with moving away from the coasts, less will worry about hurricanes, i never heard a person complain about hurricanes in lets say montana..I fully think, global warming is sooo much better...than global cooling...a global ice age would destroy man.. his cities gone, his cropland burried under 100 feet or more of ice..poof..goes man..so bring on global warming, so it gets hot, maybe rainfall will change...maybe even thousands will die, but..man will still survive..just my take on this..lets talk it out fully..what are you..so scared about global warming?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
540. Minnemike
2:31 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Your comment contradicts itself. The way the first sentence reads, there is no other cause but man. Then you go on to mention the "increasingly smaller amount of doubt" among scientists "on that."

I'm confused, but maybe I need more coffee.
try that coffee ;)
man>causality>>doubt about that relationship decreasing. seems pretty straightforward to me, in a non-contradictory way.
i will admit though, 'increasingly smaller' is not always the best way to state 'decreasing'
:P
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
539. SteveDa1
2:29 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
For concerted human action there needs to be a certain level of shared pain. However the action is always to relieve the pain not to reverse the cause, in this case part of the cause is our over-reliance on technology.


What is wrong about being over-reliant on technology? Almost everything around you is due to increases in technology. Also, it has given us much better health, ways to produce much more food, increased lifespans, and so on...

More respect should be given to it. After all, advances in technology will allow us to rid ourselves of dirty and primitive ways (coal, oil and natural gas) to extract energy. Isn't that what we all want? To have less of an impact on the planet.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
538. weatherbro
2:28 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
WOW! January in April.



What does this translate for Central Florida?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
537. Thrawst
2:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Anybody have any thoughts on the Large Trough exiting into in the Southern Plains Sunday into Monday?
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1731
536. BobWallace
2:20 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Good point there, people are consumed with the idea that man, is causing this warming when nature over the centuries, vast centuries, does it automatically, we now seem to be headed towards another change, a warming...thankgoodness its NOT the other way around, glaciers in florida is NOT good


"Automatically" is, in my opinion, a poor word choice.

All changes that happen have a physical cause. There's no one randomly cranking the thermostat up and down. There's no climate god throwing dice to determine whether he will make us hotter or colder.

Ice ages and periods of high planetary heat were triggered by natural events. Changes in Earth orbit, changes in solar strength, changes in air or ocean currents caused by movements of continents or growth of mountain ranges.

A bit over 100 years ago something unique in the history of the planet happened.

One group of animals advanced to the point that they learned how to extract very large amounts of fossil fuels from underneath the Earth's surface and burn it for energy.

Burning fossil fuel creates CO2.

This was a unique, first time event. The amount of CO2 produced has been massive.

Just stand outside a coal mining region and watch the train loads of coal rumble past. Visit one of our large oil refineries and watch the tankers unload their cargo. Then realize that you're seeing only one coal area, only one oil refinery.

This activity is going on 24/365 in many different places around the world. The amount of fossil fuel that the world consumes each year is almost impossible to comprehend.

In 2007 the world burned 85.6 million barrels of oil every single day. That's 359,200,000 gallons a day.

1,312,248,000,000 gallons of oil a year.

And that's just the oil.

We've been burning coal and oil for over 100 years and CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. It does not disappear like a puff of steam.

Just spend a bit of time an contemplate what we humans have done over many years and what we are still doing.

We are a major climate change force.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
535. BenBIogger
2:18 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting afj3:
Morning all!
Can anyone help me out? What does an El Nino event mean for the South Florida (East Coast Miami) rainy season? Will we get more summer t-storms this summer and fall?


With a warm ENSO, we usually have an average rainy season during the summer.


Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
534. Barefootontherocks
2:10 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some people are consumed concerned with the idea that man is causing the warming only because he is. There's an increasingly smaller amount of doubt on that among scientists.

Here's a well-made video you might find interesting: Welcome to the Anthropocene

Your comment contradicts itself. The way the first sentence reads, there is no other cause but man. Then you go on to mention the "increasingly smaller amount of doubt" among scientists "on that."

I'm confused, but maybe I need more coffee.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17503
533. GeorgiaStormz
1:41 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
That's gonna screw up some Easter egg hunts!


Easter Schmeaster..
I'd rather hunt egg sized balls made of ice... :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
532. JNCali
1:38 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I like this:
That's gonna screw up some Easter egg hunts!
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
531. percylives
1:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
On this date in history....

The 1964 Alaskan earthquake, also known as the Great Alaskan Earthquake, the Portage Earthquake and the Good Friday Earthquake, was a megathrust earthquake that began at 5:36 P.M. AST on Good Friday, March 27, 1964. Across south-central Alaska, ground fissures, collapsing buildings, and tsunamis resulting from the earthquake caused about 143 deaths.

Lasting nearly four minutes, it was the most powerful recorded earthquake in U.S. and North American history, and the second most powerful ever measured by seismograph. It had a magnitude of 9.2, at the time making it the second largest earthquake in recorded history


The tsunami produced by this quake was witnessed by yours truly in a harbor at Pointe-ala-Hache, LA, though I didn't know what I had seen until a couple of days later when I read about damage to many shrimp boats on Bayou Lafourche.

So that answers any questions about whether tsunamis can travel from the Pacific to the Atlantic and it shows the massive power of said quake.

Let's hope we don't see another anytime soon.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
530. barbamz
1:19 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Good morning to you oversea - but not so good in the Northern Sea ...

Two more platforms evacuated as exclusion zone is placed around 'ghost' gas platform off Scottish coast
Mar 27 2012

A TWO-mile exclusion zone has been set up around an offshore platform which has been evacuated after a gas leak.

The leak on Total's Elgin PUQ platform, about 150 miles off the coast of Aberdeen, led to the evacuation of all 238 workers on Sunday.

Yesterday, Shell reduced their workforce on two offshore installations close to the Elgin platform.

About 85 staff have been taken off the company's Shearwater platform and the nearby Noble Hans Deul drilling rig, leaving a workforce of 117 people.

Aberdeen Coastguard said an exclusion zone of two nautical miles (2.3 miles) around Elgin has been set up, with ships and aircraft ordered to stay away from the area.

Total E&P UK (TEP UK), which operates the platform, said it was taking "all possible measures" to try to identify the source and cause of the leak and to bring it under control.

It has been confirmed that there is a sheen on the water near the platform.

David Hainsworth, health, safety and environment manager for Total, said that there are risks around the situation.

He said: "The gas is flammable but the platform power was turned off to minimise risk of ignition, but clearly there is a risk.

"We have taken away a series of risks but there is always a possibility, it's low but you never say never.

"The best-case scenario is that the gas in this area is not very productive and it dies off in the coming days and weeks.

"At the moment there is no real evolution of the sheen on the sea but if that was to change - and it's monitored on a daily basis - then the exclusion zone may be increased, but at the moment it will probably stay the same."

Oil Spill Response (OSRL) carried out two aerial surveillance flights yesterday to assess the situation and two further flights are planned today.

The Shell platform is around four nautical miles (4.6 miles) from the Elgin platform.

Drilling operations on the Noble Hans Deul rig have been suspended and the wells have been left in a safe state, Shell said.

A Shell spokesman said: "While the move is purely precautionary and primarily driven by the prevailing weather conditions, and both facilities remain operational, it has been decided to reduce numbers to a more manageable level until the full situation surrounding the Elgin leak has been established."

Following the discovery of the leak on Sunday, 219 staff were evacuated from the Elgin platform and the nearby Rowan Viking drilling rig.

Nineteen core crew were initially left on board but were taken off overnight between Sunday and Monday and flown to Aberdeen. There have been no reports of any injuries.

Aberdeen Coastguard co-ordinated the evacuation of the Elgin platform.

Coastguard watch manager Kevin Brown said three rescue helicopters and four civilian helicopters helped with the process.

TEP UK said it met the Secretary of State's representative, the Health and Safety Executive, the Department of Energy and Climate change, Marine Scotland and the Coastguard yesterday.

The company said it has also mobilised experts from elsewhere in the Total Group to offer additional assistance and help deal with the incident.

In a statement, the company said: "Total E&P UK confirms that the gas leak at the Elgin Well Head Platform remains ongoing, although the situation is currently stable.

"We continue to take all possible measures to try to identify the source and cause of the leak and to bring it under control."


http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/2012/03/27/exclusion -zone-placed-around-oil-rig-off-coast-of-aberdeen- following-gas-leak-86908-23803556/


source: http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/0,1518 ,823981,00.html
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 5020
529. afj3
1:14 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Morning all!
Can anyone help me out? What does an El Nino event mean for the South Florida (East Coast Miami) rainy season? Will we get more summer t-storms this summer and fall?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 346
528. Patrap
1:09 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 26, 2012

Old Faithful Sunspot 1429 produces another strong solar flare while transiting the farside of the Sun. This region is now 2 days away from rotating back into view off the eastern limb. A bright CME was produced with this latest event.
Movies by STEREO Behind and Lasco C2.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
527. GeorgiaStormz
1:08 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
I like this:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
526. percylives
1:05 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some people are consumed concerned with the idea that man is causing the warming only because he is. There's an increasingly smaller amount of doubt on that among scientists.

Here's a well-made video you might find interesting: Welcome to the Anthropocene


Thanks, Nea,

Welcome to the Anthropocene. We hope you enjoy your stay.

Oh, and yes, it was a one-way trip so forget about that return flight.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
525. Xyrus2000
1:04 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Do you have any proof at all of that? If we completely stop emissions (which likely will never happen) the planet would not warm. And as I've said, it will take time to do enough. But it can happen.


Yes I do. Climate change lags CO2 introduction by several decades. This is due to the fact that it takes time for the changes to fully impact the planet, including the triggered feedbacks. For example, it takes a while before the oceans (the largest heat sinks on the planet) to warm up and influence average global temperatures.

The IPCC report contains information on this topic, as well as several research papers. Several climate science based sites (such as RealClimate and SkepticalScience) also have made posts about this topic, both from a historical ice core and modern day perspective.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
523. Tropicsweatherpr
12:50 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
La Nina gone from Pacific, says weather bureau

THE La Nina conditions that have contributed to flooding and heavy rainfall in Australia during the past two years have all but disappeared from the Pacific region, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

In its latest update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the bureau says La Nina conditions are no longer present in either the Pacific Ocean or the atmosphere.

It said the 2011-2012 La Nina began last spring, and played a key role in prolonged wet conditions for eastern Australian throughout summer and into early autumn.

"South-east Australia recorded its wettest seven-day period in history, and the combined effect of two back-to-back La Nina events contributed to Australia's wettest two-year period on record," the bureau said.

The weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said that while this La Nina may be over, we still need to be cautious.

"The oceans around Australia remain warmer than normal, and the tropical wet season is expected to remain active until the end of April, bringing with it the possibility of tropical cyclones and further heavy rain," Dr Watkins said.

He said the likelihood of a third successive La Nina remained low, with none of the models used by the bureau indicating a return.


Climate Prediction Center will follow with it's obituary by mid to late April. The question is if El Nino comes,how strong it may be and the strengh of it may have big implications down the road.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13306
522. GeorgiaStormz
12:49 PM GMT on March 27, 2012


who here sees Popeye's arm about to punch the NW US?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
521. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:44 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52263
520. Neapolitan
12:30 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
Good point there, people are consumed with the idea that man, is causing this warming when nature over the centuries, vast centuries, does it automatically, we now seem to be headed towards another change, a warming...thankgoodness its NOT the other way around, glaciers in florida is NOT good
Some people are consumed concerned with the idea that man is causing the warming only because he is. There's an increasingly smaller amount of doubt on that among scientists.

Here's a well-made video you might find interesting: Welcome to the Anthropocene
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
519. LargoFl
12:29 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Very shallow quake.

6.0



Date-Time

Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 11:00:43 UTC
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 08:00:43 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones



Location

39.866°N, 142.116°E



Depth

10 km (6.2 miles)



Region

NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN



Distances

85 km (52 miles) ENE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
90 km (55 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
157 km (97 miles) SE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
509 km (316 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan




Location Uncertainty

horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 2.6 km (1.6 miles)



Parameters

NST=592, Nph=597, Dmin=254.9 km, Rmss=0.73 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B



Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)



Event ID

usc0008qvj
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
518. pottery
12:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:
Link

Here is a link to the shake map for that earthquake in Japan.

Very shallow quake.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
517. LargoFl
12:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Simply Beautiful outside here in Florida..HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
501 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
501 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
INCREASING EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL CREATE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
516. StormTracker2K
12:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2012


Warmth spreads tomorrow.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
515. AussieStorm
12:22 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
La Nina gone from Pacific, says weather bureau

THE La Nina conditions that have contributed to flooding and heavy rainfall in Australia during the past two years have all but disappeared from the Pacific region, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

In its latest update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the bureau says La Nina conditions are no longer present in either the Pacific Ocean or the atmosphere.

It said the 2011-2012 La Nina began last spring, and played a key role in prolonged wet conditions for eastern Australian throughout summer and into early autumn.

"South-east Australia recorded its wettest seven-day period in history, and the combined effect of two back-to-back La Nina events contributed to Australia's wettest two-year period on record," the bureau said.

The weather bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said that while this La Nina may be over, we still need to be cautious.

"The oceans around Australia remain warmer than normal, and the tropical wet season is expected to remain active until the end of April, bringing with it the possibility of tropical cyclones and further heavy rain," Dr Watkins said.

He said the likelihood of a third successive La Nina remained low, with none of the models used by the bureau indicating a return.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
514. LargoFl
12:21 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting MahFL:
Don't forget that at least one point in Earth's past we had tropical forests in the Arctic Circle, so global warming is not an unnatural event. What might be odd, and we don't really know, is the rate of warming could be pretty fast compared to other times it has happened.
Also a 3 mile high glacier, from global cooling, would not be too good for your timber framed eco friendly house......:).
Good point there, people are consumed with the idea that man, is causing this warming when nature over the centuries, vast centuries, does it automatically, we now seem to be headed towards another change, a warming...thankgoodness its NOT the other way around, glaciers in florida is NOT good
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
513. Neapolitan
12:18 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Chilly indeed. A little below normal in spots, but nowhere near record lows, thankfully.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
512. LargoFl
12:17 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Magnitude 6.0 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 27 11:00:43 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.0

Date-Time
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 11:00:43 UTC
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 08:00:43 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
39.866°N, 142.116°E
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
85 km (52 miles) ENE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
90 km (55 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
157 km (97 miles) SE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
509 km (316 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 2.6 km (1.6 miles)
Parameters
NST=592, Nph=597, Dmin=254.9 km, Rmss=0.73 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008qvj
gee mother earth is sure active this spring, rumbling all over the earth
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
511. Patrap
12:08 PM GMT on March 27, 2012


Magnitude 6.0 - NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 27 11:00:43 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.0

Date-Time
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 11:00:43 UTC
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 08:00:43 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
39.866°N, 142.116°E
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
85 km (52 miles) ENE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
90 km (55 miles) SE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
157 km (97 miles) SE of Aomori, Honshu, Japan
509 km (316 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles); depth +/- 2.6 km (1.6 miles)
Parameters
NST=592, Nph=597, Dmin=254.9 km, Rmss=0.73 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=B
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008qvj
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
510. StormTracker2K
12:08 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
509. StormTracker2K
12:06 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Models have really back off with the cold this morning. The only exception will the the NE US.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
508. PedleyCA
12:06 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Link

Here is a link to the shake map for that earthquake in Japan.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4922
507. LargoFl
12:06 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

NCZ042-078-089-280000-
/O.CON.KRAH.FR.Y.0002.120328T0600Z-120328T1200Z/
JOHNSTON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...GOLDSBORO...CLINTON
754 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT...
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT SCATTERED FROST IS POSSIBLE. PLANTS
THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD MAY BE EVEN MORE SENSITIVE THIS
GROWING SEASON DUE TO THE RECENT STRING OF UNUSUALLY WARM
WEATHER. THESE SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE KILLED OR DAMAGED IF LEFT
UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33366
506. HurrikanEB
12:06 PM GMT on March 27, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Bad fire situation setting up for New England today. We haven't had more than a shower or two in weeks, the air is super dry, and the winds are howling. I thought my house would blow down last night they were gusting so strong.
$$


The abnormally dry area has really been expanding lately. And extreme southeastern New England is officially in the "moderate drought" category now. A lot of places are currently four to 6 inches (almost 50%) below normal for the year.


Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1289

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.