Wilma no stronger yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2005

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Wilma is ending its long pounding of Mexico's Yucatan, and is now steadily accelerating towards its next target--southern Florida. The eye has been offshore the Yucatan for about 12 hours now, but no intensification has occurred--yet. The latest hurricane hunter flight, at 11 am EDT, found a central pressure of 964 mb, up 3 mb from the previous flight at 7 am EDT. Wilma has a very large 70 mile diameter eye, thanks to the collapse of the inner eyewall during passage over the Yucatan.

Data from satellites, Cancun radar, and the hurricane hunters all show that the inner eyewall is now re-establishing itself over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This inner eyewall has a diameter of about 12 miles, and if it has time to fully form, could generate Category 3 hurricane winds at landfall in southwest Florida. Wind shear over Wilma is currently about 10 knots--the same level we've seen for the past few days. This shear is expected to remain at this level until about midnight tonight, and allow intensification until then. Thereafter, the wind shear will steadily increase, putting an end to Wilma's intensification phase and probably weakening her just before landfall on Monday. Wilma's size and fast forward motion may not give the shear much chance to weaken her significantly, and there is still about a 10% chance that Wilma could hit Floridsa as a Category 3 hurricane. However, given the limited time Wilma has to re-establish her inner eyewall, and the significant shear expected to assert itself, the most likely intensity at landfall is a Category 2. A Category 1 storm at landfall is a good possibility, as well. Ordinarily, the crossing of the Florida Peninsula should weaken a hurricane by about 10 mph, but in Wilma's case, her winds should be 15 - 20 mph weaker on the east coast of Florida, due to the extra time significant wind shear will have to weaken her.

Assuming my forecast of a landfall near Marco, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds is a good one, we can expect a storm surge of 8 to 14 feet near that city and to the south. The Keys would see storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet. Fortunately, the area south of Marco is primarily uninhabited--the Everglades swamp. However, if Wilma comes ashore north of Naples--or further south near the Keys--storm surge flood damage in those areas could easily reach billions of dollars. Storm surge flooding should be only 2 - 4 feet on the east coast of Florida, where wind damage is the primary threat.


Figure 1. Storm surge map for southwest Florida.

Wilma's winds and rain
Wilma will be moving too fast to dump more than 5 - 10 inches of rain. The rain will be concentrated on the north side of the hurricane, since there will be a cold front there that will trigger more condensation. Areas to the north of the eye's passage will see winds a full Category--25 to 30 mph--lower than those on the south. This is because the storm's high rate of forward motion, near 25 - 30 mph, will add to the windspeeds seen on the south side of the Wilma's counterclockwise rotation, and subtract on the north side. Since the storm will be moving so fast, the duration of hurricane force winds will be just a few hours.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma should bring 50 - 60 mph winds to the northern Bahama Islands, but not hurricane force winds. Wilma should pass close enough to North Carolina's Outer Banks to bring 40 mph winds there and up to an inch of rain. It now appears that Wilma will bring 40 mph winds and 1 - 3 inches of rain to southeast Massachusetts, along with 20 foot waves. Boston, which has already had its fourth wettest October ever with 7.52 inches of rain, may break its October record. Nova Scotia will probably bear the brunt of Wilma's fury, receiving a direct hit by the center, along with 45 - 55 mph winds and rains of 3 - 5 inches.

Alpha
Tropical Storm Alpha, the record-breaking 22nd tropical storm of this unbelievable hurricane season, has come ashore over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rains of up to 12 inches could cause heavy loss of life in Haiti, where 98% deforestation rates have left the island highly vulnerable to flooding from even ordinary fast-moving tropical storms like Alpha. In the event a major flood disaster does ensue, dictating the retirement of Alpha's name, there are no contingency plans on how to replace Alpha's name on the list. Alpha is moving fast enough that I am hopeful a major flooding disaster will be averted in Haiti, though.

The 10,000 foot high mountains of Hispanolia have seriously disrupted the circulation of Alpha, making it questionable how much will remain of the storm to threaten the Turks and Caicos Islands. In any event, Alpha does not have long to live, as the huge circulation of Hurricane Wilma will overtake it by Tuesday and destroy the storm with high wind shear.

I'll be watching Wilma this afternoon, and will have a new report by 5 pm.

Jeff Masters

Negril still being battered (jamaicawatch)
Days after Hurricane Wilma left South of Jamaica, huge waves are still battering the westerly tip of the Island.
Negril still being battered
Wilma waves in georgetown, Grand Cayman (Cregnebaa)
Breezers and Landmark taking a battering
Wilma waves in georgetown, Grand Cayman

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109. FLSpud
3:03 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
Hi. Just checking in for Citrus County....Steady rain for about an hour or so. Not much for winds. Stay safe everyone south!
108. taco2me61
2:53 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
I just wanted to say my heart goes out to everybody in south FL, and that you all please be careful this storm is not to play around with...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
107. ahatt1
2:53 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
Cat 3
106. scribblin
1:08 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
Local forecasters are showing the new GFDL on TV...showing a bullseye landfall around 8am EST on Everglades City, just south of Marco Island, with 108 knot winds, pressure 950 mb. Northern eye wall will go through Naples, Bonita Springs, etc. Current location is 198 miles from landfall. Still a big tornado threat in the area, too.
105. scribblin
12:28 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
Powerful thunderstorms are forming just off the Gulf in the area of Marco Island and Ten Thousand Islands; some rotation is visible. A tornado watch is in effect for all of soutwest Florida until 1am EST.
104. scribblin
12:03 AM GMT on October 24, 2005
Local forecast on Wilma from ABC/NBC simulcast...pressure is 28.29 (958 mb), moving 15 mph NE, max winds 110 mph. Possible 5-10 mph increase, but Wilma is entering a potentially more hostile environment. Eye is 220 miles from Marco Island.
103. scribblin
11:56 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Local forecasters are calling for a landfall in or just south of Naples. Surge predictions are 10' in Naples and as much as 17' just past Marco Island, in the Ten Thousand Islands area.
102. scribblin
11:52 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the barrier islands off Ft. Myers (Lee County) and for about half of Cape Coral.

A sheriff's deputy told me that Marco Island police officers are being required to stay on the island. Hopefully they will be stationed near flotation devices....
101. scribblin
11:46 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
NE Naples...winds are 11 mph ESE with gusts to 21 mph, and it's 81 degrees. Pressure is 29.5. Ominously quiet...the birds are gone.
100. tpabarb
10:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
That waterspout was HUGE, would have been a really nasty tornado over land, just saw it on the news.

First thunder coming now in St. Pete.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
99. globalize
10:16 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Yes, forecasters now agreeing on further intensification. Lightning, thunder and large water spout reported in Key West a few minutes ago.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
98. scribblin
10:13 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Winds in Naples are 14 mph SE with gusts to 29 mph. Pressure is still 29.6, temp is 86. Skies have gone gray with some cumulus clouds lightly visible.

Local news is showing video of a large water spout off Key West.

Collier County is under a curfew (10pm - 6am), and voluntary evacuation extends inland to I-75 in the north, SR 951 below the bend.
97. scribblin
10:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
sngalla

Sorry...I was outside playing one more game of basketball with my four boys. I'm in Orange Tree, near Oil Well Rd. For thouse outside Naples, I'm NE of the city, almost as north as Bonita Springs, about 17 miles inland.
96. olefosse
9:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Now, isn't that a small eye closing up now, in the satellite feeds. This after a lot of fiddling by Wilma to make it happen? Looks menacing, but hopefully she now runs aground in colder waters soon, so the intensity may not increase to much.
95. sngalla
9:20 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
where are u located, scribblin?
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
94. scribblin
9:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Forgot to mention: Max said Wilma is moving at 14 mph NE toward Florida and she will "take off like a rocket" just after landfall.
93. scribblin
9:11 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Max Mayfield just did a broadcast in which he said that Wilma is a strong Cat 2 hurricane that might well achieve Cat 3 by landfall, and storm surge estimates have now been "bumped up" to 9-17 feet on the west coast, 2-4 on the east coast. Hurricane winds extend 70-85 miles, tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles. Tornadic activity is expected in the right quadrant of Wilma in south Florida, possibly in central Florida as well.

Rain has begun falling on Marco Island as an outer band sweeps across.
92. sngalla
8:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2005

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 34

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on October 23, 2005


...Wilma a little stronger and accelerating northeastward toward
Florida...
...Tropical storm-force winds impacting western Cuba and approaching
the lower Florida Keys...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward...including Lake
Okeechobee.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to Flagler Beach.


A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.


At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has discontinued all
warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 23.5 north... longitude 84.9 west or about 210 miles...
340 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida and about 295 miles...
475 km...southwest of the southwestern coast of the Florida
Peninsula.


Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A
continued northeastward motion and a gradual increase in forward
speed are expected tonight and Monday. On this track...the center
of Wilma is forecast to be near the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula early Monday morning. However...Wilma is a large
system and tropical storm force winds will reach the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula tonight...well in advance of the center.


Data from Air Force and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and now are near 105
mph...165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category two
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is
possible tonight and early Monday...and Wilma could be near
category three strength as it nears the southwestern Florida coast.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km. NOAA buoy 42056 in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea...about 230 miles south-southwest of the center of
Wilma...recently reported sustained tropical storm force winds of
39 mph. Sustained tropical storm force winds have also recently
been reported in Havana Cuba.


An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft just reported a minimum
central pressure of 959 mb...28.32 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay...as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.


Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 10
to 15 inches through Monday across portions of western Cuba... and 1
to 2 inches across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula... with
isolated maximum storm total amounts approaching 50 inches.
Rainfall across southern Florida... including the Keys... through
Tuesday is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches possible.


Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward tonight
and early Monday.


Isolated tornadoes are possible over the central and southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday.


Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...23.5 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.


Forecaster Knabb

Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
91. scribblin
8:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
I've been watching cloud development over NE Naples this afternoon while putting up plywood. We've got quite a smorgasboard: cirrus, cumulus, cumulonimbus, and then altostratus clouds moved in sometime around 4pm EST. It's now almost 5pm EST and stratocumulus clouds are working their way in out of the SW. Winds are 6 mph ESE with gusts now to 17 mph, pressure 29.6, 87 degrees. Still a pretty day, overall. For now.
90. nightbloomingjasmine
8:47 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Back later son wants to use computer Lotta nerve.
89. SaCaCh
8:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Don't be so quick to retire Alpha. Haiti has to request its name be retired and frankly they have shown in the past, they just don't care.
88. nightbloomingjasmine
8:41 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
sounds good Big K I was going to bake a cake too but I don't want to make the icing
87. 2ifbyC
8:39 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
tpabarb,

Most local agencies shut down travel at 45 MPH. The Skyway may be 40.

Winds are locally forecasted to be tropical 'round 6 AM. But that can change so stay tuned!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
86. sngalla
8:36 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Be safe,nbj. sounds like some tasty hurricane treats being baked. Yum!
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
85. BigKahuna
8:34 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
sgnalla,nightb...just made a pineapple upside down cake here.
84. nightbloomingjasmine
8:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Naples
83. tpabarb
8:33 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
thanks, just put on 970 live feed. I can't remember at what wind speed they close the bridges. I'll just go in really late.
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
82. sngalla
8:32 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Dania Beach. Where are you?
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
81. nightbloomingjasmine
8:31 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
where are you sngalla?
80. nightbloomingjasmine
8:30 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
The dog didn't pay any attention to Charlie either but he's nervous this time. The cat's just being a pain, but I guess he feels something too. I did notice that I don't hear any birds outside.
79. sngalla
8:29 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
nightbloomingjasmine, made choc chip cookies earlier just to get away from all the hurricane talk.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
78. globalize
8:28 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Wow. Just saw some street footage of Cancun. Won't take 24 hours until there is lawlessness there. Anybody heard any plans for evacuatiing American nationals from Cozumel and Cancun? Nope.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
77. nightbloomingjasmine
8:25 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Hi GG I just got back on I decided to make brownies Hope we don't regret staying Good luk to you too Don't know how long we'll have power but I'll be around until it goes.
76. dcw
8:21 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
WFLA is 970AM in our area...Glenn Beck FTW!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
75. 2ifbyC
8:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
tpabarb,

Watch Ch. 9 or tune in to WFLA radio (98.7 AM, I think).
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
74. matilda101
8:12 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
961 mb latest from recon
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
73. sngalla
8:09 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
tpabarb, Norcross just said around 40-50mph in your area if the hurricane takes the path forecasted.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363
72. tpabarb
8:07 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Does anyone know how I can figure out what the tropical storm winds will be like early tomorrow morning in the Tampa area?

My office is open (so far)....I am not driving over tampa bay from st. Pete in tropical storm winds! :-/
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 54
71. spookygirl
7:55 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
...alpha2005.

for those of us in central florida:


Hurricane Local Statement from the National Weather Service:

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...

...NEW INFORMATION... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SEE WIND IMPACT DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN IN BREVARD...VOLUSIA...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN...INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY ON MONDAY AND ACCELERATE VERY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED TODAY.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS THE AREA OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF- GUARD OR DELAY YOUR ACTIONS...IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM PLANS. ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDIANS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS... THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AS THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS LESSENED BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN TO LET DOWN YOUR GUARD...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM WILMA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE AND THEREFORE WILL ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE CORE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OKEECHOBEE... OSCEOLA...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS BREVARD...ORANGE...LAKE... SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES STARTING BEFORE 8 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES.

BECAUSE THE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA...WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE RIGHT. IT IS LIKELY A BAND OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST WIND IMPACT WILL NOT BE KNOWN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME WILMA WILL BE MOVING VERY FAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BEHIND WILMA AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN OUTER RAINBANDS PRECEDING WILMA AND IN THE INNER RAINBANDS NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF WILMA AS IT RAPIDLY CROSSES THE PENINSULA. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR EARLY MONDAY. LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRODUCED KILLER TORNADOES IN THE PAST. IF TORNADO WARNINGS ARE ISSUED TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY. THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BLOCK HOME AWAY FROM WINDOWS. CHECK WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS FOR SHELTER LOCATIONS FOR THOSE IN MANUFACTURED HOMES.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. BECAUSE WILMA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE... WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OUTER RAINBANDS FROM WILMA LIFT NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTERSECT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM ORLANDO SOUTHWARD AS THE CORE OF HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

WHILE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR... IT APPEARS THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...OR IN AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...DO WHAT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAPID MOVEMENT OF WILMA AND THE MOVEMENT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC...HIGH IMPACT STORM SURGE AND COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A STORM TIDE OF PERHAPS 3 OR 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY MONDAY NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OFFSHORE. EXTREMELY ROUGH SURF...BEACH EROSION...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES AS WILMA MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.

...MARINE IMPACTS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM FOR MARINERS DUE TO ITS RAPID APPROACH AND ACCELERATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS AND THEN BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY NWS MELBOURNE BY 6PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

70. Business
7:49 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
what are the chances of Wilma and Alpha interacting?
69. 2ifbyC
7:45 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
For those that would like to follow Wilma on GoogleEarth go here for overlays:

http://www.googleearthhacks.com/dlcat77/Hurricane-Wilma.htm

You can measure distance from the eye to your location.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
68. weatherwannabe
7:44 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Wilma's intensity has flucuated a lot over the last 8 hours, but she has not shown any signs of intensification.
67. wildcatlh
7:29 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
96 kt FL = 100 MPH, not 105 (90% of 96 kts is 86.4 kts, 86.4 kts converted to MPH = 99.5 MPH)
66. globalize
7:10 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Anybody got the most recent barometer on Wilma?
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
65. dcw
7:08 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Alpha is cruising for immidiate retirement, death toll in Haiti has gotta be huge.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
64. scribblin
7:06 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Time to put the wood over a few exposed windows.
63. dcw
7:04 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Latest recon has 96kt FL, she's strengthening. Thats surface of 105mph.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
62. scribblin
7:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Someone asked for the barometric pressure in Naples, I think. It is currently 29.562 (88.6 degrees). Winds this morning at 4 a.m. were 0 (that's what the report said) and now they are SE at 6 mph with gusts to 12. It has been sunny, hot and muggy, though with a breeze, since about 8:30 a.m. The last two days have been gray and murky. So it's a beautiful day in paradise, perfect for the beach -- if you don't mind the heavy forboding caused by the impending landfall of a mean-spirited hurricane.

:)
61. FloridaFamily
6:53 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Thanks bullitts2000 and AySz88 for the helpful links!
60. turtlehurricane
6:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
59. globalize
6:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2005
Sorry, I meant TWD.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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