Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

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The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.


Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.


Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)
Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?
2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms
Spring Landscape (thebige)
Spring Landscape
Jefferson Memorial (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.
Jefferson Memorial

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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Which forecasters? Do you have a link?
here its on today's CNN: Washington (CNN) -- Most Americans can put away winter coats and umbrellas and break out the short sleeves and sunglasses even though spring doesn't officially begin until next week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.

In fact, for the first time in four years, no area of the country will face a high risk of major flooding from April through June, due in large measure to a winter without much snow, forecasters said.

"We expect above-normal temperatures in the South and Eastern United States," said Ed O'Lenic, chief of operations at the Climate Prediction Center for NOAA's National Weather Service. He predicts temperatures could be half a degree to a degree and a half above normal in many parts of the country.

Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Southwest across Texas and the Gulf Coast, as well as the Atlantic Coast, the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes region, according to NOAA. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and southern Alaska will be below normal.

Tornado destroys Michigan homes

The heat has been on early this spring and the mercury has already broken records across the country. Nationwide, 577 record temperatures were broken Wednesday, including 400 high temperatures, according to Laura Furgione, deputy director at the National Weather Service. The weather service forecasts warm weather to continue well into next week.

This is unwelcome news to parts of the South and West, where NOAA predicts the ongoing drought will persist and intensify through June.

"Drought is now encompassing parts of the West and Southwest, making conditions more favorable for wildfires," said David Brown, director of NOAA Southern Region Climate Services.

"If the drought persists as predicted, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels and an expansion of water conservation measures," according to a NOAA statement.

That's a stark contrast to last year's flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.

"What a difference a year makes," said Furgione. "We're not forecasting a repeat of recent historic and prolonged flooding in the central and northern U.S., and that is a relief. The severity of any flooding this year will be driven by rainfall more so than the melting of the current snowpack."

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Quoting Patrap:
A year over a Century ago, well..the trend has been more than a Temperature trend and the Changes we see today, pale those of the past by a large percentage.

I stick with the PHD's and the science of what occurring.

To do less, is like picking low hanging Cherry blossoms in late March.

: )



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.
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Interesting Stats
•Urbana's record high of 81 on March 14th was the earliest 80+ degree high temperature in a calendar year.
•Normal's record high of 81 on March 15th was the earliest 80+ degree high temperature in a calendar year.
•Galesburg's record high of 80 on March 16th was the earliest 80+ degree high temperature in a calendar year.
•Springfield's record warm low of 66 on March 19th broke the all time March record warm low of 65 on March 30th, 1998.
•Peoria's record warm low of 66 on March 21st broke the all time March record warm low of 64 on March 30th, 1998.
•Through March 21st Peoria had six days with 80+ degree high temperatures for the month. This breaks the old record of five days in 1907 and 1910.
•Through March 21st Lincoln had six days with 80+ degree high temperatures for the month. This breaks the old record of four days in 1910.
•Through March 21st Springfield had 6 days with 80+ degree high temperatures for the month. This ranks second behind the record of seven days in 1907.
•Through March 21st Urbana had seven days with 80+ degree high temperatures for the month. This breaks the old record of four days in 1907.
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Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy, this year is really going to be a burner, temp wise huh: In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.


Which forecasters? Do you have a link?
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Quoting SPLbeater:


wasnt that area called the dustbowl? fequent dust storms and no rain i think in Kansas, Oklahoma, and other areas like dat
yes i seem to remember something about that, lots of misery in those states
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Quoting dabirds:
You in Tuscola ILwthr? Raining here, no wind to speak of yet, the one heading towards Effingham appears to be weakening. Possible fatality just mentioned on radio in Jefferson County touchdown.


Yes, I am from Tuscola.

Storm that just went over me had a wall cloud, went just east of me on other side of I-57 moving north. It seemed to be struggling with organization when it passed by, however now radar is showing this to the southeast of CHAMPAIGN. Stronger rotation!












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Cororner has confirmed that Jeff county fatality, according to radio news. Now some popping to west and south of StL too. Stay alert!
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Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy, this year is really going to be a burner, temp wise huh: In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.



Heck, even the capitol at one time suffered a dust storm during that period.


I wonder how long ago humans lived on Venus?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
93. LRC
Quoting ScottLincoln:


People still listen to Steve Goddard? I figured his lies and mathturbation (as statistician Grant Foster calls it) had pushed him off into obscurity by now.

Have some friends right of Rick Perry. Marvel at their putting up with me as I would be clasified and a radical leftist in my beliefs if I were American.
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Quoting Levi32:
It is worth pointing out that this kind of stuff also happened long before the period during which AGW has been blamed for extreme weather events. Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910:

Source









Look closely at this last one. These are some of the highest temperatures recorded in the Great Lakes region during March 1910. Compare with Dr. Masters' record map:




A lot of these look like they beat out this year's event. 89 degrees F in lower Michigan in March?

Individual events offer no evidence for consideration in the climate tendencies of the planet. The next step in the argument is always the frequency at which record warmth occurs compared to 100 years ago, which undoubtedly is a bit higher now because the globe was cooler 100 years ago. However, caution must be taken when instantly blaming an event like this on a theory of global, climate change. Let's take it in context. 1910 was as bad, if not worse in some areas, and the fact that the globe was a bit cooler as a whole then makes that event statistically more impressive than March 2012. Let's not pretend this is something we have never seen before. You just have to look for it.



But some people don't want to look for it.

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Largo, not that old, but hearing a lot of '54 comparisions around here, but don't think they had as warm a winter. Hope not though, pretty bad drought year supposedly.
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Quoting LargoFl:
looking at the strange weather this month reminds me of something my dad used to say, something about very strange weather in the midwest back in the 20's or 30's, weather destroyed the crops,no rain and blistering temps...anyone old enough here to remember that?


wasnt that area called the dustbowl? fequent dust storms and no rain i think in Kansas, Oklahoma, and other areas like dat
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another warning, folks be careful up there ok:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

INZ079-KYZ032-232000-
JEFFERSON-TRIMBLE-
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
BEDFORD...
PROVIDENCE...
MONITOR...
BROOKSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 8520 3869 8519 3869 8521 3874 8526
3873 8527 3870 8529 3863 8522 3858 8520
3853 8528 3859 8536 3886 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 212DEG 19KT 3857 8527

$$

AMS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
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You in Tuscola ILwthr? Raining here, no wind to speak of yet, the one heading towards Effingham appears to be weakening. Possible fatality just mentioned on radio in Jefferson County touchdown.
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looking at the strange weather this month reminds me of something my dad used to say, something about very strange weather in the midwest back in the 20's or 30's, weather destroyed the crops,no rain and blistering temps...anyone old enough here to remember that?
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Tomorrow is my day!(for fishing, too lol)


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA...NC...SC AND SE GA...

...SRN VA/NC/SC/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. TO THE EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUT THEIR IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION. CONCERNING THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THE NAM IS FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE GFS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS. HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BOTH SOLUTIONS WHICH INITIATE LATE MORNING STORMS ON THE COASTAL PLAINS AND DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE SREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 18Z TO 21Z SHOW MLCAPE OF NEAR 1200 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 KT AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DEVELOP WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEW CELLS INITIATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS.

...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IN KY AND MIDDLE TN. DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD CONTAIN HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS WV INTO SW PA WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 03/23/2012
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oh boy, this year is really going to be a burner, temp wise huh: In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Well, this is turning into a great day! haha

in just under 20 minutes I have picked 0.75 of inch of rain and dime sized hail. Winds gusted up to about 40 mph. Still raining wind has calmed quit a bit though...



wow, be careful up there, tornado's are around
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An extract from:-57. BobWallace.(copied from another blog.)

I realize that you sometimes get once in a five hundred year events. But when they occur in March in 1998, 2010, and three days in a row in 2012 in Nova Scotia, I get a little nervous.

If you split the living world into 3 sub sections of static environment vegetation, static environment creatures, and mobile vegetation and creatures you get a very interesting scenario with these unusual extreme weather events.
The static families are "geared," to their basic climate patterns and if these are disturbed then they may be fooled into going through their annual cycles at the wrong or inapropriate times, hence they may suffer heavy losses from adverse conditions which follow the 'out of season conditions.'
For example early laying of birds eggs, or germination of plants may lead to them being virtually wiped out by cold, or even possibly too much heat.
Meanwhile invasive or mobile plants, (via seeds,) and creatures may then be able to move into the environment where they have few or weakened predators, where they may be able to establish themselves.
These weather/climate anomalies may be the tip of the iceberg, that just melted.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
Well, this is turning into a great day! haha

in just under 20 minutes I have picked 0.75 of inch of rain and dime sized hail. Winds gusted up to about 40 mph. Still raining wind has calmed quit a bit though...



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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


Kind of a surprise severe weather event today.

Good afternoon all.

surprise?

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Quoting BobWallace:
Levi - you can look back through the history books and find incidences when unusual things happened, but you also need to look at the frequency of the unusual.

Climate Extremes NOAA

Then, you might want to do some math and determine if a 10 degree increase over a somewhat smaller average temperature is equal to a 30 degree increase over a slightly larger average.


This last part doesn't make sense to me. I don't know what you're trying to say.
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TORNADO WARNING
ILC121-231945-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0014.120323T1915Z-120323T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
215 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OMEGA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF SALEM...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...INCLUDING MOST
RECENTLY JUST SOUTH OF IUKA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEPHEN FORBES STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 8869 3872 8870 3872 8880 3883 8873
3883 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 203DEG 26KT 3870 8874

$$

TES
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Quoting LargoFl:
ty for the warning, on the news they are showing tornado damage already,
Yep, said they had touchdown in Tamaroa area earlier, @ work so only getting radio reports (besides wu of course). Effingham get ready.

Saw that cell pop up ahead you're under ILwthr, wondered about it, thanks.

Looks to stay east of me, but who knows what will pop later. Stay safe.
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Quoting Levi32:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 04:54 PM GMT on Mars 23, 2012

"The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin."
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Quoting BobWallace:
Levi - you can look back through the history books and find incidences when unusual things happened, but you also need to look at the frequency of the unusual.

Climate Extremes NOAA

Then, you might want to do some math and determine if a 10 degree increase over a somewhat smaller average temperature is equal to a 30 degree increase over a slightly larger average.

That's the big thing. You can't blame these events solely on global warming- weather patterns have a lot to do with it. However, the fact that these warm temperatures and extreme weather events are happenning more often indicates that the climate is changing. The numbers don't lie no matter how much you want them to.
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TORNADO WARNING
ALC067-GAC037-061-099-231945-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0031.120323T1912Z-120323T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
NORTHERN EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/

* AT 308 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLAKELY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ARLINGTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8482 3143 8465 3136 8501 3145 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 243DEG 23KT 3143 8500

$$

15-HARRIGAN
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
Quoting dabirds:
Marion County, IL (Centralia/Salem)now in tornado warning, getting closer to us, but probably worst stays east. Stay alert between US 51 & I-57 south of I-70.
ty for the warning, on the news they are showing tornado damage already,
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 208 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 158 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 152 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TORNADO WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 147 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
Quoting dabirds:
Marion County, IL (Centralia/Salem)now in tornado warning, getting closer to us, but probably worst stays east. Stay alert between US 51 & I-57 south of I-70.


Kind of a surprise severe weather event today.

Good afternoon all.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Today is not so quiet.


Well, I hope this is not a sign that an eruption is imminent
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7979
Levi - you can look back through the history books and find incidences when unusual things happened, but you also need to look at the frequency of the unusual.

Climate Extremes NOAA

Then, you might want to do some math and determine if a 10 degree increase over a somewhat smaller average temperature is equal to a 30 degree increase over a slightly larger average.
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Quoting dabirds:
Marion County, IL (Centralia/Salem)now in tornado warning, getting closer to us, but probably worst stays east. Stay alert between US 51 & I-57 south of I-70.


I am getting hammered right now. *dime size hail, very windy...



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Marion County, IL (Centralia/Salem)now in tornado warning, getting closer to us, but probably worst stays east. Stay alert between US 51 & I-57 south of I-70.
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Also of note,

Also had two very large PC1 Pulses within the last 24 hrs.

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Induction Magnetometer



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
Quoting ScottLincoln:


People still listen to Steve Goddard? I figured his lies and mathturbation (as statistician Grant Foster calls it) had pushed him off into obscurity by now.


Worshiped as a god.

If you're looking for someone to tell you the lies you want to hear....
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Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully it remains relatively quiet


Today is not so quiet.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Something big may be about to happen in Soufriere? See post 16 and discuss what do you think. I am very worried here in terms of the ash being transported to PR with a change of wind direction.




Following two VT swarms on the 22 and 23 March 2012 involving 49 and 54 events respectively, mild ash venting began at Soufriere Hills Volcano at around 8:00 am local time on 23 March. The venting was sourced from the floor of the 11 February 2010 collapse scar, immediately south of the old English’s crater wall and to the west of the long-lived hottest fumarole previously identified (see photo, taken from Jack Boy Hill). Fumarolic activity on the volcano on the morning of 23 March increased markedly and a new steam fumarole was identified on the NW side of the dome immediately behind Gages Mountain.

The ash venting was clearly pulsatory and sent ash to approximately 6000 feet above sea level (3000 feet above the volcano). At its peak, black jets of ash were seen rising a few hundred metres above the floor of the collapse scar. This type of activity is probably ‘phreatic’ in origin and is formed where superheated rock meets groundwater causing the rocks to fragment, generating ash.

VT earthquakes are related to fracturing rocks probably as a result of increases in pressure. It is likely that these pressure increases and the resulting earthquakes are related to uprising magma below the volcano. Similar types of activity have occurred at Soufriere Hills Volcano up to several months prior to restarts in magma extrusion, for example in 2005 and 2008.

http://www.mvo.ms/whats-new
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Electron Flux Suddenly Drops by 3 Orders of Magnitude

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Something big may be about to happen in Soufriere? See post 16 and discuss what do you think. I am very worried here in terms of the ash being transported to PR with a change of wind direction.

Hopefully it remains relatively quiet
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7979
Quoting Patrap:
Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.
It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.


Nice post Patrap
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7979
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Soufriere Hills Volcano has become very active today with ash emmisions. The last big eruption was on Febuary 11,2010. Read the bulletin below.

Something big may be about to happen in Soufriere? See post 16 and discuss what do you think. I am very worried here in terms of the ash being transported to PR with a change of wind direction.

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Let me copy over part of a comment posted on another forum...


Setting here in Halifax Nova Scotia, it hit 27.2 celsius, and this is a province that surrounded on three sides by sea water at 0 celsius in March, and never far from the ocean. Not bad when our average high is 4 celsius for this date.

I realize that you sometimes get once in a five hundred year events. But when they occur in March in 1998, 2010, and three days in a row in 2012 in Nova Scotia, I get a little nervous.

In fact we broke the all time April high here in halifax; just three days into spring.

And it's not just us, it's the whole north eastern North America.

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A year over a Century ago, well..the trend has been more than a Temperature trend and the Changes we see today, pale those of the past by a large percentage.

I stick with the PHD's and the science of what occurring.

To do less, is like picking low hanging Cherry blossoms in late March.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.
It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.




Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127820
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51. Levi32 2:41 PM EDT on March 23, 2012

Nice catch to compare with Levi........ :)
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Thanks Dr. for the very thoughtful post. What Nature Giveth, Nature Taketh and not much that Man can do about it; going to be a very interesting 12 months coming up considering the potential impacts downstream.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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