Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

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The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.


Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.


Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)
Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?
2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms
Spring Landscape (thebige)
Spring Landscape
Jefferson Memorial (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.
Jefferson Memorial

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Quoting Neapolitan:
That's definitely cooler than it's been the past few weeks there, so relative to that, yes, it can be called a cool-down. But average temps for Detroit the last week of March are highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s, so Monday night looks like the only below-normal night to worry about for the time being.


It's all relative I agree but it will be a shock to the system, to go from 88 to 48 in a matter of a few days with lows in the mid 20's. The bad thing is lots of plants have sprouted up there already and then a freeze to kill it all off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.


When it comes to someone that has a PHD I would have no need to trust their opinion of what the best tasting ice cream is in the world as compared to the opinion of anyone else. When it comes to the questions concerning the Sciences, their opinions carry more weight. I will give more weight to the person's opinion, with a PHD, in that field of study, than I would over anyone else with lesser studies in that field. Unless, that person has proven to be a super star, in that field of study, and lacks their PHD.

I met someone that has a PHD.
That person told lies.
Conclusion: Any person with a PHD tells lies.

I met a bank robber.
The bank robber never told lies.
Conclusion: Bank robbers never lie.

My cat likes dogs.
My dog likes cats.
Conclusion: All cats like dogs and all dogs like cats.

Do you see were I am going with this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The situation was exacerbated by poor agricultural techniques. Lose soil with nothing to hold it down is very vulnerable to even slight changes in temperature and moisture.

On the 30s dust bowl scenario.
For me there is I think nothing better for those who want to understand what was happening than to listen to Woody Guthrie's " Dust Bowl Ballads!"
After you have heard a few of them, you wonder how anybody, or thing ever survived.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Lows in the 20's with highs in 40's a cool down? Maybe you should read this below Young Buck.

000
FXUS63 KDTX 231954 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012


UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL DROP A STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE-STARVED AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT..WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL...BUT THINK ENOUGH WIND AND CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MITIGATE FROST THREAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CAREFULLY THOUGH. LOWS PROBABLY WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
NORTH OF M-59 HOWEVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HOLD
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER...WITH COLD AIRMASS LOCKED INTO THE AREA ONLY ALLOWING
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO TH 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE THESE TEMPS WILL
FEEL RELATIVELY COLD...THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. OF
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MEX GUIDANCE AND RAW 12Z EURO
DATA BOTH DROP FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30...WHICH LOOK EXTREMELY REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WOULD ALSO EXPECT FROST TO DEVELOP WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN GIVEN THE EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS EXPERIENCED.
That's definitely cooler than it's been the past few weeks there, so relative to that, yes, it can be called a cool-down. But average temps for Detroit the last week of March are highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s, so Monday night looks like the only below-normal night to worry about for the time being.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13568
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow, I did not know lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s was bitter cold for people living in Michigan, "smart one".


Killing frost becuase it's been so warm is a big deal as many areas in MI have started their growning season. When your talking highs into the 80's then going into the 40's for highs is a huge temperature change. Wait you know this right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
147. LRC
Quoting BobWallace:


Well, that's a crock.

It would be very hard to earn a Ph.D. were you not intellectually honest. It's pretty common to see graduate students shown to the door when they get caught bending or distorting facts.

I've personally seen that happen twice. And there are good examples of well-known Ph.D.s discovered faking stuff and, well, they are no longer in the science business.

Now, I don't know what kind of crowd that you hang with, but my experience is that well-educated people - especially those in the sciences - are quite careful with the truth.

The biggest liars I've encountered are largely uneducated types who are trying to bum a buck off me...


A quote that I think applies very well and yet very few seem to understand the reality.
"When you think you know everything, you are eligible for a Bachelor's degree;
When you think there is a lot more to learn, you are eligible for a Masters degree;
When you think you know nothing, you are eligible for a PhD"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
for my region

Sun

63°F
46°F
60%

Mon
39°F
39°F
0%

Tue
43°F
19°F
0%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i seem to remember something about that, lots of misery in those states


The situation was exacerbated by poor agricultural techniques. Lose soil with nothing to hold it down is very vulnerable to even slight changes in temperature and moisture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


If you have a weird hot spell that wakes up the blossoms and then you return to "normal cold" conditions you can kiss off your crop.

In my experience peach blossoms are more sensitive to cold than apple and cherry blossoms. Others mileage may vary....

The main problem that might come to light in the near future with this "warm spell," is that it has been long enough to tempt, (for want of a better word, as fool doesn't seem appropriate for a tree,)the fruit trees into going into early blossom, when/if a cold snap comes along the trees will probably shed their set fruit and either abandon the season or go into a second flowering much later in the season, as sometimes happens in Europe with apples which can also rarely blossom in the autumn.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Lows in the 20's with highs in 40's a cool down? Maybe you should read this below Young Buck.

000
FXUS63 KDTX 231954 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012


UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL DROP A STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE-STARVED AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT..WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL...BUT THINK ENOUGH WIND AND CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MITIGATE FROST THREAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CAREFULLY THOUGH. LOWS PROBABLY WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
NORTH OF M-59 HOWEVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HOLD
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER...WITH COLD AIRMASS LOCKED INTO THE AREA ONLY ALLOWING
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO TH 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE THESE TEMPS WILL
FEEL RELATIVELY COLD...THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. OF
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MEX GUIDANCE AND RAW 12Z EURO
DATA BOTH DROP FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30...WHICH LOOK EXTREMELY REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WOULD ALSO EXPECT FROST TO DEVELOP WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN GIVEN THE EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS EXPERIENCED.

Wow, I did not know lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s was bitter cold for people living in Michigan, "smart one".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you get bitter cold, there is only going to be a brief cool down...
well on mon temps will likly not make it past 5c for a high monday night -2 for a low then tuseday 4 for a high with - 7 for a low thats in the city outside of the city its always 3 or 4 degrees colder then back near 10 or 50 on wed afternoon with rain
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.


There is not anything in the world that would make me happier than you having the right to say, "I told you so!", in another 30 years. You ave already decided what you will say then, should you prove to be correct. Just out of curiosity, what are you going to say if you are wrong and many that listened to your words today became complacent about this and really begin to suffer for it 30 years from now? Have you decided on such carefully chosen words to present before them, in this event?

You and Levi32 have a great deal of respect of nearly every person on this blog for your ability to explain tropical systems. I share their respect for both of you, on tropical systems. There are some questions that you and/or Levi32 need to answer for me:

1. What theory are either of you able to provide that explains how mankind can introduce tons/day of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere and not have these greenhouse gases begin a warming of our climate?

2. What theory will you be able to present that defies the Laws of Physics concerning the introduction of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere?

3. What chemical process or processes are happening in our atmosphere that would negate the effects of our adding greenhouse gases into our atmosphere?

Until either of you are able to provide valid theories to these questions then the opinions that either of you have on climate change will not garner the respect that your knowledge of the tropical systems have. At least, not from me. Now, should either of you be able to provide these theories then you will have fame and fortune sitting at your disposal and the praise of the world populace. ... "Drill, Baby, Drill!", will become my new slogan!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mother nature can be cruel and it looks like more cold next weekend after a rebound on wed thur following the cool down from mon and tue


Long range models have even been showing some snow storms for the Great Lakes & New England with one model last night showing the 540 line dipping all the way down to NC.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you get bitter cold, there is only going to be a brief cool down...


Lows in the 20's with highs in 40's a cool down? Maybe you should read this below Young Buck.

000
FXUS63 KDTX 231954 CCA
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
350 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012


UPPER WAVE LIFTING UP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EAST
THROUGH CANADA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL DROP A STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE-STARVED AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT..WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. WILL BE
A CLOSE CALL...BUT THINK ENOUGH WIND AND CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MITIGATE FROST THREAT. WILL NEED TO WATCH
CAREFULLY THOUGH. LOWS PROBABLY WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
NORTH OF M-59 HOWEVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND HOLD
OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER...WITH COLD AIRMASS LOCKED INTO THE AREA ONLY ALLOWING
DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM INTO TH 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE THESE TEMPS WILL
FEEL RELATIVELY COLD...THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. OF
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MEX GUIDANCE AND RAW 12Z EURO
DATA BOTH DROP FORECAST LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR
30...WHICH LOOK EXTREMELY REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WOULD ALSO EXPECT FROST TO DEVELOP WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN GIVEN THE EARLY START TO THE GROWING SEASON
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS EXPERIENCED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BobWallace:


The Dust Bowl.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl


I think I did a blog on this, but I know I have posted many images of this event. It went on for years. Thousands of people died and tens of thousands became ill.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
mother nature can be cruel and it looks like more cold next weekend after a rebound on wed thur following the cool down from mon and tue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch out:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
440 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 102 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC053-075-091-240200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0102.120323T2040Z-120324T0200Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE


INC007-011-013-015-017-023-045-057-063-067-073-081 -097-107-109-
111-121-131-133-157-159-165-171-181-240200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0102.120323T2040Z-120324T0200Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON BOONE BROWN
CARROLL CASS CLINTON
FOUNTAIN HAMILTON HENDRICKS
HOWARD JASPER JOHNSON
MARION MONTGOMERY MORGAN
NEWTON PARKE PULASKI
PUTNAM TIPPECANOE TIPTON
VERMILLION WARREN WHITE


ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX...IND...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
gonna be sad come mon tue when everything that has come forth in the warmth is destroyed or killed in a couple of days of bitter cold

Not sure where you get bitter cold, there is only going to be a brief cool down...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
gonna be sad come mon tue when everything that has come forth in the warmth is destroyed or killed in a couple of days of bitter cold
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
way back in school I seem to remember something about that, I guess your right along with a weather pattern change


Yes, it was a drought. The effects of that drought were greatly exacerbated by poor land management practices.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tor reports for today as of 2:55 pm cdt
1429 2 SSW TROY MUNICIPAL AI PIKE AL 3183 8602 TORNADO REPORTED BY TROY AIRPORT WEST OF THE AIRPORT MOVING TOWARD THE AIRPORT. (BMX)

1434 1 S TROY MUNICIPAL AIRP PIKE AL 3185 8601
HOUSE AND BARN SUSTAINED DAMAGE ALONG OAK GROVE ROAD JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. (BMX)

1633 1 W NEELYS LANDING CAPE GIRARDEAU MO 3750 8952
FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN (PAH)

1730 ELKVILLE JACKSON IL 3791 8924
PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OF A TORNADO NEAR TRUAX AND TRAYER ROAD. (PAH)

1730 DOWELL JACKSON IL 3794 8924
BRIEF TOUCHDOWN JUST OUTSIDE THE CITY LIMITS OF DOWELL. IT TOUCHED DOWN AND THEN WENT BACK UP INTO THE CLOUDS. (PAH)

1732 3 NW CARBONDALE JACKSON IL 3776 8926
JUST NORTH OF SIU CARBONDALE AIRPORT. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN AND IT WENT BACK UP. (PAH)

1742 2 E DU QUOIN PERRY IL 3800 8920
BRIEF ROPE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL (PAH)

1749 14 SW DOTHAN GENEVA AL 3108 8556
911 CALL CENTER HAD REPORTS OF HOUSES WITH MINOR DAMAGE AND ROOFS DAMAGED AT/NEAR 1984 N COUNTY RD 49. TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF COUNTY RD 73 AND SCOTT RD. (TAE)

1814 FERN CREEK JEFFERSON KY 3816 8560 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN THE HERITAGE CREEK AREA (LMK)

1826 OPDYKE JEFFERSON IL 3826 8879 (PAH)

1857 2 SE CARTTER MARION IL 3852 8889 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARTER. (LSX)

1857 3 S IUKA MARION IL 3857 8879 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN 3 MILES SOUTH OF IUKA. (LSX)

1925 KOLOMOKI MOUNDS SP EARLY GA3147 8493 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SEEING TORNADO ON THE GROUND. (TAE)

Also, if anyone's interested, NWS Shreveport yesterday published a report on flooding and tornadoes in their forecast area March 19-21. Five tors, preliminarily rated as four EF0 and one EF1. Didn't see a report at Lake Charles and haven't checked all the weather forecast offices with areas affected by this system (lol) but will probably move in that direction. Eventually.
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
One thing I'd say about the cold weather on fruit blossoms is what one guy I work with told me about apple blossoms (his family owned an orchard in Beloit, WI): If the temps get below 26 degrees F for as little as one hour an orchard can be expected a loss of 90% of it's crop for that year. Above 26 degrees F seems to be a lot less threatening to flowering apple trees. I don't know how it is with cherries or peaches though.


If you have a weird hot spell that wakes up the blossoms and then you return to "normal cold" conditions you can kiss off your crop.

In my experience peach blossoms are more sensitive to cold than apple and cherry blossoms. Others mileage may vary....
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This thunderstorm complex appears to have eyes on C FL. Something to watch as this could come thru later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

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Climate change skeptics downplaying an exceptional heatwave are as amusing as global warming advocates making a big deal about 10days very unusual weather.

Americans really love to polarize debates, don't they ;).
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nearly all of that has been attributed to poor land management of the times.


The Dust Bowl.


The phenomenon was caused by severe drought coupled with decades of extensive farming without crop rotation, fallow fields, cover crops or other techniques to prevent wind erosion.[1] Deep plowing of the virgin topsoil of the Great Plains had displaced the natural deep-rooted grasses that normally kept the soil in place and trapped moisture even during periods of drought and high winds.

During the drought of the 1930s, without natural anchors to keep the soil in place, it dried, turned to dust, and blew away eastward and southward in large dark clouds. At times the clouds blackened the sky reaching all the way to East Coast cities such as New York and Washington, D.C.

Much of the soil ended up deposited in the Atlantic Ocean, carried by prevailing winds, which were in part created by the dry and bare soil conditions. These immense dust storms—given names such as "Black Blizzards" and "Black Rollers"—often reduced visibility to a few feet (around a meter).

The Dust Bowl affected 100,000,000 acres (400,000 km2), centered on the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, and adjacent parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas.[2]

Millions of acres of farmland became useless, and hundreds of thousands of people were forced to leave their homes; many of these families (often known as "Okies", since so many came from Oklahoma) migrated to California and other states, where they found economic conditions little better during the Great Depression than those they had left.

Owning no land, many became migrant workers who traveled from farm to farm to pick fruit and other crops at starvation wages. Author John Steinbeck later wrote The Grapes of Wrath, which won the Pulitzer Prize, and Of Mice and Men, about such people.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dust_Bowl
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Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy, this year is really going to be a burner, temp wise huh: In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.
I don't understand the reasoning behind a 90 day forecast, when a 72 hour forecast is tough to get accurate.
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91 here in Maitland! With thunderstorms building to my west. Looks like a mean Seabreeze collision is on tap here in a couple of hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see these storms become severe this evening.


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One thing I'd say about the cold weather on fruit blossoms is what one guy I work with told me about apple blossoms (his family owned an orchard in Beloit, WI): If the temps get below 26 degrees F for as little as one hour an orchard can be expected a loss of 90% of it's crop for that year. Above 26 degrees F seems to be a lot less threatening to flowering apple trees. I don't know how it is with cherries or peaches though.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.


That's the beauty of science. There is a peer review process to weed out the biased and dishonest information. Climate change has gone through the rigors of this process and has been substantiated for quite a long time by many people from all over the world. AGW is the the best explanation we have for the current warming because there is the most amount of evidence for it. If that doesn't impress you, you should approach the problem from a different angle. The oil industry has tons of money to throw around in lobbying. Wouldn't the bias and dishonesty tend to be on the side where there is the greater amount of cash to be made?

Even if I am completely wrong that humans are the cause of global warming I would still justify my position. If we don't base our opinions on evidence what do we base them on?
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Blue skies just showed to south and west, but more clouds coming, very dark to NE (not suprisingly). Glad it has stayed away so far. Heard one fatalty and two injured when house collapsed in Opdyke, (Jefferson County) IL.
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122. txjac
Quoting Ameister12:
Beautiful rope tornado in Illinois.


Wow, that was beautiful
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Beautiful rope tornado in Illinois.

It was filmed near Elkville, IL.
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"Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910:"

Been perusing some dusty journals lately?
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Well i guess we here in Florida will be getting some of this Bad weather sat and sunday, wishing all of you in the path of these storms, best of luck and stay safe out there..its been an interesting weather day for sure
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.


Well, that's a crock.

It would be very hard to earn a Ph.D. were you not intellectually honest. It's pretty common to see graduate students shown to the door when they get caught bending or distorting facts.

I've personally seen that happen twice. And there are good examples of well-known Ph.D.s discovered faking stuff and, well, they are no longer in the science business.

Now, I don't know what kind of crowd that you hang with, but my experience is that well-educated people - especially those in the sciences - are quite careful with the truth.

The biggest liars I've encountered are largely uneducated types who are trying to bum a buck off me...

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117. JeffMasters (Admin)
Yesterday and today, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Jeff Masters
Orlando,Florida alert: FLZ040-232045- MARION- 401 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT... AT 400 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF OCALA AIRPORT...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA...MOVING ERRATICALLY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SANTOS...BELLEVIEW...SOUTH OF OCALA AIRPORT THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. LAT...LON 2900 8235 2921 8237 2920 8204 2896 8204 2895 8221 TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 166DEG 2KT 2909 8224 $$
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Did those same forecasters predict 90-days ago that March was going to be a month for record-setting heat and that Texas and Louisiana would see the flooding they have had?
I doubt it, this surprised them all i think, no one knew i assume that a High would stall and remain there off the east coast for so long..I surely could be wrong but who knows
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Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy, this year is really going to be a burner, temp wise huh: In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.


Did those same forecasters predict 90-days ago that March was going to be a month for record-setting heat and that Texas and Louisiana would see the flooding they have had?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Quoting Jedkins01:



But some people don't want to look for it.



Don't fool yourself Jedkins.

Climate scientists, like scientists of all flavors, are very careful to look for any sort of evidence.

Whether it supports of disproves their suspicions.

Don't do that and you destroy your credibility. Science has a very low tolerance for cherry-pickers.
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ZONE FORECASTS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

GAZ021-022-032>034-044>046-055-057-241215-
CHEROKEE-CLAYTON-COBB-DEKALB-FORSYTH-GWINNETT-HEN RY-NORTH FULTON-
ROCKDALE-SOUTH FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...CONYERS...DECATUR...
EAST POINT...LAWRENCEVILLE...MARIETTA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The problem is, the PHD has nothing to do with intellectual honesty. It is nothing more than a title of high education.

The PHD for some has become a modern god-status, if someone is highly educated, we have to trust them. Sadly its not that it has to be, or always is, but the most trustworthy wise people I've met have not been the most educated. And well, some of the most educated I've met, well, you get the point.



Personally, I would rather not be a pawn. But then I guess I'm just an ignorant, stupid "denier". However, one day I will get to say, I told you so.


I wonder at the fixed positions people are taking on this. I try to have an open mind and consider the factual and scientific background of what I'm reading and hearing. I'm not sure how possible climate change (or its cause) became a political issue. Possibly because Al Gore became concerned with it? But there are many things none of us knows for sure. All we can do is try to evaluate intelligently what we are finding and wait and see what happens.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Nearly all of that has been attributed to poor land management of the times.
way back in school I seem to remember something about that, I guess your right along with a weather pattern change
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Quoting Levi32:


This last part doesn't make sense to me. I don't know what you're trying to say.


Do an analysis of the degree of unusual heat from the records you cite and compare to what we've just seen.

A quick read by me sees highs pitched in terms of degrees over average. What we're seeing is highs significantly over record highs.

From Jeff's article above...

"It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°.

Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. "

Your copied text talks of 30°F over average.
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Quoting LargoFl:
looking at the strange weather this month reminds me of something my dad used to say, something about very strange weather in the midwest back in the 20's or 30's, weather destroyed the crops,no rain and blistering temps...anyone old enough here to remember that?


Nearly all of that has been attributed to poor land management of the times.
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Quoting Levi32:
It is worth pointing out that this kind of stuff also happened long before the period during which AGW has been blamed for extreme weather events. Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910:

Source









Look closely at this last one. These are some of the highest temperatures recorded in the Great Lakes region during March 1910. Compare with Dr. Masters' record map:




A lot of these look like they beat out this year's event. 89 degrees F in lower Michigan in March?

Individual events offer no evidence for consideration in the climate tendencies of the planet. The next step in the argument is always the frequency at which record warmth occurs compared to 100 years ago, which undoubtedly is a bit higher now because the globe was cooler 100 years ago. However, caution must be taken when instantly blaming an event like this on a theory of global, climate change. Let's take it in context. 1910 was as bad, if not worse in some areas, and the fact that the globe was a bit cooler as a whole then makes that event statistically more impressive than March 2012. Let's not pretend this is something we have never seen before. You just have to look for it.


Bravo!
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I count at least nine tornadoes that have touched down across the United States. It is like a mini surprise tornado outbreak.

I suspect the deadly Illinois tornado was a high-end EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32285
Quoting Levi32:
It is worth pointing out that this kind of stuff also happened long before the period during which AGW has been blamed for extreme weather events. Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910:

Source









Look closely at this last one. These are some of the highest temperatures recorded in the Great Lakes region during March 1910. Compare with Dr. Masters' record map:




A lot of these look like they beat out this year's event. 89 degrees F in lower Michigan in March?

Individual events offer no evidence for consideration in the climate tendencies of the planet. The next step in the argument is always the frequency at which record warmth occurs compared to 100 years ago, which undoubtedly is a bit higher now because the globe was cooler 100 years ago. However, caution must be taken when instantly blaming an event like this on a theory of global, climate change. Let's take it in context. 1910 was as bad, if not worse in some areas, and the fact that the globe was a bit cooler as a whole then makes that event statistically more impressive than March 2012. Let's not pretend this is something we have never seen before. You just have to look for it.
Yep, extremely amplified patterns in the jet stream have always occurred. Though it is believed if we continue our current warming trends the jet stream would weaken, move poleward, and become more amplified, possibly favoring an increase in the number of severe weather events as well as the duration and intensity of those events.

We'll have to wait and see what happens.
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Quoting LargoFl:
wow, be careful up there, tornado's are around


Always! Unless there is a tornado, then I'm chasing it ;)
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Quoting Levi32:
It is worth pointing out that this kind of stuff also happened long before the period during which AGW has been blamed for extreme weather events. Check out the Weather Bureau Monthly Weather Review for March 1910: A lot of these look like they beat out this year's event. 89 degrees F in lower Michigan in March?

Individual events offer no evidence for consideration in the climate tendencies of the planet. The next step in the argument is always the frequency at which record warmth occurs compared to 100 years ago, which undoubtedly is a bit higher now because the globe was cooler 100 years ago. However, caution must be taken when instantly blaming an event like this on a theory of global, climate change. Let's take it in context. 1910 was as bad, if not worse in some areas, and the fact that the globe was a bit cooler as a whole then makes that event statistically more impressive than March 2012. Let's not pretend this is something we have never seen before. You just have to look for it.
No one has said that heat waves haven't happened before. And the March 1910 event was a historical one, to be sure. But hundreds--thousands--of records set during this recent heat wave have surpassed--and in many cases obliterated--many set during the 1910 event. Too, the 1910 heat wave wasn't as long-lived as this month's. For instance, here's an image of some numbers from Aurora, IL (which, incidentally, Bastardi laughably misinterprets in an attempt to make a false point: "‎1910 March heat wave was far worse than this. Check out temps at Aurora Ill 10 strt 80 plus one 90"):

warm

Of course many all-time March monthy high temps were set in 1910, but that's a comparison based on the fact that in 1910 most stations were just a few, to a few dozen, years old, whereas now many have over a century of history behind them. As Dr. Masters and others have been careful to note, one of the things that make the current heat wave so amazing is the large and widespread number of records that have stood for 100 years or more that have just been reset.

As has also been noted, the current heat wave wasn't "caused" by warming, man-made or otherwise. But it was almost certainly made far worse by it, so it would be entirely fair and accurate to state that the current heat wave as we know it was, indeed, "caused" by warming--as was last summer's monster heat wave in the Midwest, and the 2010 one in Russia, and so on.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13568
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Which forecasters? Do you have a link?
here its on today's CNN: Washington (CNN) -- Most Americans can put away winter coats and umbrellas and break out the short sleeves and sunglasses even though spring doesn't officially begin until next week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In a 90-day weather outlook released Thursday, forecasters predict the unseasonably warm temperatures that have blanketed parts of the United States will continue into the summer, and much of the country will remain dry.

In fact, for the first time in four years, no area of the country will face a high risk of major flooding from April through June, due in large measure to a winter without much snow, forecasters said.

"We expect above-normal temperatures in the South and Eastern United States," said Ed O'Lenic, chief of operations at the Climate Prediction Center for NOAA's National Weather Service. He predicts temperatures could be half a degree to a degree and a half above normal in many parts of the country.

Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Southwest across Texas and the Gulf Coast, as well as the Atlantic Coast, the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes region, according to NOAA. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and southern Alaska will be below normal.

Tornado destroys Michigan homes

The heat has been on early this spring and the mercury has already broken records across the country. Nationwide, 577 record temperatures were broken Wednesday, including 400 high temperatures, according to Laura Furgione, deputy director at the National Weather Service. The weather service forecasts warm weather to continue well into next week.

This is unwelcome news to parts of the South and West, where NOAA predicts the ongoing drought will persist and intensify through June.

"Drought is now encompassing parts of the West and Southwest, making conditions more favorable for wildfires," said David Brown, director of NOAA Southern Region Climate Services.

"If the drought persists as predicted, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels and an expansion of water conservation measures," according to a NOAA statement.

That's a stark contrast to last year's flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.

"What a difference a year makes," said Furgione. "We're not forecasting a repeat of recent historic and prolonged flooding in the central and northern U.S., and that is a relief. The severity of any flooding this year will be driven by rainfall more so than the melting of the current snowpack."

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.