Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

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The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.


Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.


Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)
Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?
2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms
Spring Landscape (thebige)
Spring Landscape
Jefferson Memorial (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.
Jefferson Memorial

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Quoting hydrus:
I have learned a lot too..From a bunch here I tell ya...........Q. How do you amuse a blonde for hours?
A. Write 'Please turn over' on both sides of a piece of paper. :). .DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GA...

...VA/NC/SC/GA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEAST. MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIP IN A SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF NC/SC TO SEE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC/SC. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 40+ KNOT 700MB WIND MAX ROTATING
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...KY/TN...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF KY/TN TODAY. THIS REGION IS POST-FRONTAL WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE PRIMARY VORT MAX CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. AMBIENT VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT MIGHT ALSO FAVOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 03/24/2012


i find that i cant laugh at those jokes due to the fact i am a blonde. :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




There are none so blind as those who will not see...
Words of truth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i know. i have learned from alot on here, Aussie, you, hydrus, ScottLincoln, and more.
I have learned a lot too..From a bunch here I tell ya...........Q. How do you amuse a blonde for hours?
A. Write 'Please turn over' on both sides of a piece of paper. :). .DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST GA...

...VA/NC/SC/GA...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN IL WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHEAST. MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIP IN A SHIELD ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NC.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLOUD
COVER...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF NC/SC TO SEE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC/SC. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS ALSO SHOW A 40+ KNOT 700MB WIND MAX ROTATING
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...KY/TN...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF KY/TN TODAY. THIS REGION IS POST-FRONTAL WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE PRIMARY VORT MAX CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. AMBIENT VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT MIGHT ALSO FAVOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 03/24/2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VIDALIA GEORGIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z TLH RAOB...SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SEVERAL TSTM
CLUSTERS LIKELY DEVELOPING EWD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VWP DATA FROM
KVAX DEPICTS VEERING OF THE LOWER-LEVEL WIND PROFILE THAT IS
SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
PROBABLE...POTENTIALLY YIELDING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...CARBIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting SPLbeater:


i never saw those 2 any better then the rest of the bloggers. nothing official, nothing special IMO.




There are none so blind as those who will not see...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

So you lurked before you signed up. SPLbeater Member Since: August 4, 2011


yeah i did lurk. my aunt gave me advisories on hurricane Fred and then on a sticky note:

www.wunderground.com - jeff masters blog for info

so here i is :D

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting AussieStorm:

Be careful of what you wish for, you may get even worse if your unlucky enough.

That's why I gave definite sizes. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I just want to have a Severe Thunderstorm with Quarter to ping-pong sized hail.

I've not seen hail in five years.


2 year ago i was at my grandparents house, and a small cell came over and dropped pea sized hail. you could smell the pine trees from where the hail was knocking the needles out. Those things where like ice bullets lol

Then in April 16th...at the very moment an EF3 tornado was tearing through Sanford under 5 miles to my east we had spiky golf-ball sized hail. we went directly through the heart of the hail core from that supercell. Me and my buddies saved some and put them in a cup in the church freezer. then some meat head came through and dumped them out!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I just want to have a Severe Thunderstorm with Quarter to ping-pong sized hail.

I've not seen hail in five years.

Be careful of what you wish for, you may get even worse if your unlucky enough.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting SPLbeater:


i would say October 2009

So you lurked before you signed up. SPLbeater Member Since: August 4, 2011
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting SPLbeater:
And I just might get my bow echo today...and I will be happy if it waits till after 4 PM so i can fish!

And a small possibility tomorrow..

I just want to have a Severe Thunderstorm with Quarter to ping-pong sized hail.

I've not seen hail in five years.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting AussieStorm:

How long you been here, since August 2011?


i would say October 2009
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
And I just might get my bow echo today...and I will be happy if it waits till after 4 PM so i can fish!

And a small possibility tomorrow..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
With the onset of severe weather now is a good time your weather radio is tuned to the correct frequency. Go here to check.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can admit that Levi and Drak are the two best tropical weather forecasters on this blog.

You can learn a lot from them.


i know. i have learned from alot on here, Aussie, you, hydrus, ScottLincoln, and more.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Although not reported by the media, especially by Dr. Masters, this month has been one of the coldest relative to the last 30 year average GLOBALLY. The anomolous bubble of warm air over the Eastern U.S. was produced by an extreme buckling of the jet stream. Now, anyone who has had Meteorology 101 will know that it is COLD AIR that causes the buckling of the jet stream, not warm air. Also, it is COLD AIR that causes most extreme weather events, not warm air. Finally, I am tired of people who claim to be scientists say that it is their gut feeling that recent extreme waether events have been enhanced by AGW. Water content in the atmosphere is ~18000 pmm average versus 400 ppm for CO2, and water is a "stronger" greenhouse gas than CO2. Was the earth's temperature last year greater in 1998? That was 14 years ago. Answer that simple question truthfully and you will have the answer to the truth of AGW.
Yes, the earth's temperature last year in 2010 was greater than it was in the anomalously warm El Nino year of 1998. (2011 was not, though it was the warmest La Nina year on record.)

Now, we won't know until the March figures are compiled and released in April exactly where March 2012 ranks, but rest assured it's nowhere near "one of the coldest". However, given that there's been a deep La Nina, it will very likely have been one of the least warm in the last decade. But that's a relative term; it'll still continue the line of months since early 1985 with a global temperature at or above the 20th century global average...and it'll still be warmer than entire years were in the 1980s and 1990s. "One of the coldest" of the last 30 years? Not even close.

As for the rest of your paragraph, there's no need to rehash things that have been explained and debunked time and again; using Google, you should be able to quickly and easily find answers to your questions.

So far as attributing extreme weather events to planetary warming, a peer-reviewed article published just this week goes into great detail about such attribution, and concludes with the following passage:

"Scientists are frequently asked about an event %u201CIs it caused by climate change?%u201D The answer is that no events are %u201Ccaused by climate change%u201D or global warming, but all events have a contribution. Moreover, a small shift in the mean can still lead to very large percentage changes in extremes. In reality the wrong question is being asked: the question is poorly posed and has no satisfactory answer. The answer is that all weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be."
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting presslord:
This would be an appropriate time for someone to remind me to exercise restraint of tongue and pen...and keyboard...
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from tonguing or penning the keyboard , or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be "restrained " with the restrain button and ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i never saw those 2 any better then the rest of the bloggers. nothing official, nothing special IMO.

I can admit protest that Levi and Drak are the two best tropical weather forecasters on this blog.

You can learn a lot from them.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting SPLbeater:


i never saw those 2 any better then the rest of the bloggers. nothing official, nothing special IMO.


Then pay attention to them - you actually might learn something. They're actually educated in what they talk about.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting presslord:
Many of us have watched Levi, as well as Drak, over the years...and feel a certain 'pride of ownership' in them...either of them would be fine role models for any prepubescent adolescent interested in weather...
havnt seen Drak in a while.....Q. What do you get when you offer a blonde a penny for her thoughts?
A. Change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i never saw those 2 any better then the rest of the bloggers. nothing official, nothing special IMO.

How long you been here, since August 2011?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
This would be an appropriate time for someone to remind me to exercise restraint of tongue and pen...and keyboard...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Many of us have watched Levi, as well as Drak, over the years...and feel a certain 'pride of ownership' in them...either of them would be fine role models for any prepubescent adolescent interested in weather...


i never saw those 2 any better then the rest of the bloggers. nothing official, nothing special IMO.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Many of us have watched Levi, as well as Drak, over the years...and feel a certain 'pride of ownership' in them...either of them would be fine role models for any prepubescent adolescent interested in weather...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Articuno:

According to the USGS...it was a 5.6...
Link

Earthquakes @ Geoscience Australia says 6.1
Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
People really here saying Levi is not smart enough weather wise to debate with someone? LOL my god don't make me laugh at your stupidity.


i have no doubt in my mind Levi a smart with weather.

But what makes him 'special' and everybody goes to him like he is the director of NHC i will never know
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Although not reported by the media, especially by Dr. Masters, this month has been one of the coldest relative to the last 30 year average GLOBALLY. The anomolous bubble of warm air over the Eastern U.S. was produced by an extreme buckling of the jet stream. Now, anyone who has had Meteorology 101 will know that it is COLD AIR that causes the buckling of the jet stream, not warm air. Also, it is COLD AIR that causes most extreme weather events, not warm air. Finally, I am tired of people who claim to be scientists say that it is their gut feeling that recent extreme waether events have been enhanced by AGW. Water content in the atmosphere is ~18000 pmm average versus 400 ppm for CO2, and water is a "stronger" greenhouse gas than CO2. Was the earth's temperature last year greater in 1998? That was 14 years ago. Answer that simple question truthfully and you will have the answer to the truth of AGW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd like some quotes for a story that I am writing for a mutlimedia class at the University of Florida. (Instead of retiring, I decided to go to graduate school.) I read this blog often, especially during hurricane season. I find it informative, amusing, and diverse--although sometimes I don't get the inside jokes!

I am especially interested in the comments that have been made regarding climate change effects on weather in the tropics-subtropics. The class is building a Web site about water in general and in Florida specifically. One of my articles is climate change and water (precipitation, ground water, salt water intrusion, etc.).

If you are interested in participating, please send me a short quote (200 words or less) and tell me your real name, location, and area of expertise or experience (at least something I can verify). I was particularly interested in using a recent comment from Levi re climate change. Please note that this project will go live on the UF Web site at the end of April, so your comments will be available to the general public--but then they are on this site too!

You can send this information to eksommer (at)ufl.edu. If you need to verify my information, you can check here: http://www.jou.ufl.edu/grad/studentdetail.asp?id=e ksommer or go my languishing blog (too much studying no time for writing: myeconotebook.com. Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Soufriere Volcano continues to emit ash today after starting bigtime that proccess on Friday.

FVXX23 KNES 241223
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20120324/1222Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
PSN: N1642 W06210

AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEV: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2012/002

INFO SOURCE: GOES-15. GFS WINDS. METAR.

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING EMISSIONS

OBS VA DTG: 24/1145Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL040 N1647 W06210 - N1640 W06210
- N1617 W06300 - N1640 W06312 - N1647 W06210 MOV
WSW 5-10KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 24/1800Z SFC/FL040 N1647 W06209
- N1639 W06207 - N1621 W06304 - N1646 W06316 -
N1647 W06209

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 25/0000Z SFC/FL040 N1648
W06209 - N1639 W06205 - N1620 W06304 - N1647
W06314 - N1648 W06209

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 25/0600Z SFC/FL040 N1647
W06209 - N1638 W06204 - N1621 W06302 - N1645
W06316 - N1647 W06209

RMK: PLUME OF GASES AND LGT VA EXTENDS 35NM WSW
OF SUMMIT. JOHN OBSOURNE AIRPORT REPORTED VA AT
24/1100Z ...SALEMI

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20120324/1815Z



gee earthquakes and volcano's, mother nature says HI..its springtime, wake up humans
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
The Soufriere Volcano continues to emit ash today after starting bigtime that proccess on Friday.

FVXX23 KNES 241223
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20120324/1222Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
PSN: N1642 W06210

AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEV: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2012/002

INFO SOURCE: GOES-15. GFS WINDS. METAR.

ERUPTION DETAILS: ONGOING EMISSIONS

OBS VA DTG: 24/1145Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL040 N1647 W06210 - N1640 W06210
- N1617 W06300 - N1640 W06312 - N1647 W06210 MOV
WSW 5-10KT

FCST VA CLD 6HR: 24/1800Z SFC/FL040 N1647 W06209
- N1639 W06207 - N1621 W06304 - N1646 W06316 -
N1647 W06209

FCST VA CLD 12HR: 25/0000Z SFC/FL040 N1648
W06209 - N1639 W06205 - N1620 W06304 - N1647
W06314 - N1648 W06209

FCST VA CLD 18HR: 25/0600Z SFC/FL040 N1647
W06209 - N1638 W06204 - N1621 W06302 - N1645
W06316 - N1647 W06209

RMK: PLUME OF GASES AND LGT VA EXTENDS 35NM WSW
OF SUMMIT. JOHN OBSOURNE AIRPORT REPORTED VA AT
24/1100Z ...SALEMI

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20120324/1815Z





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Quoting Levi32:
151. Some1Has2BtheRookie

My views are not that the basic physics are wrong. It is a fact that CO2 has a large E-M absorption band at wavelengths of about 11-15 micrometers, which intersects the E-M spectrum of the Earth. It is a fact that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is increasing. It has to have some effect. What I still think is unclear is exactly how much impact the CO2 increase has within the very complex Earth-atmosphere system.

You will ask why I don't believe the current "consensus" on the subject. I dislike the unbelievable politicization of the issue. It doesn't matter what "side" you're on. Politics has ruined this aspect of modern science. From where I'm sitting the IPCC could be correct, and we will see as time goes on if they are, or they could be overestimating the effects.

We're watching people run around all the time blaming AGW for any weather event under the sun, which is getting ridiculous. My position is that we should be aware that the Earth has been on an overall warming trend over the past century, and that there is a possibility that humans have influenced it, and that for many reasons besides just the weather, we should pursue clean and renewable energy around the globe. However, at the current politicized state that the science is in, I'm obliged to be skeptical.

And that is my two cents.


Well said, but from my view Hansen is very close to the actual truth when he says what we are probably seeing is a movement of the bell curve of the climate system slightly to the warmer regime. The same bell curve of temperature probability exists, it has just shifted because of the additional CO2 and other industrial gases forcings in the atmosphere. To me this just makes common sense.

So both sides have their points. No specific weather event can be said to be caused by climate change but all weather events have the probability of their occurrence modified by climate change.

As to politics, I like the English system where there is distinct penalties for lying. Recently an MP was banned from re-election because he lied about an opponent. A simple rule like that would help clean up DC.

And that's my two cents

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
MAR 24th will be my 27th Birthday

Happy Birthday! You are at a wonderful age. I hope you are taking the time to savor it and look forward to you having a bright future.
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Hunger Games — A World Suffering From the Devastating Aftermath of Climate Change and Resource Depletion-maybe the young adults are instinctively onto their possible future!

Link
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Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Methane Release Shows Amplifying Feedbacks from Human Caused Climate Change

Link
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368. skook
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nobody said that. Levi made a few comments skeptical of AGW, and some here responded to him in a polite fashion. But then a visitor from the bunker stopped by to cause trouble by dropping a couple of troll bombs, and a few people responded. That's all.



What bunker? Must be pretty important if you mentioned it, because I see people dropping "troll bombs" on here daily, heck most of them seem to be considered regulars here, so I'm not really sure what that comment means about this bunker.
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Good Morning Everyone, yesterday the SPC didnt even have a tornado threat for NC for Saturday and today they do. Saturdays for some reason are never good for NC when it comes to severe weather..

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Quoting Levi32:
151. Some1Has2BtheRookie

My views are not that the basic physics are wrong. It is a fact that CO2 has a large E-M absorption band at wavelengths of about 11-15 micrometers, which intersects the E-M spectrum of the Earth. It is a fact that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is increasing. It has to have some effect. What I still think is unclear is exactly how much impact the CO2 increase has within the very complex Earth-atmosphere system.

You will ask why I don't believe the current "consensus" on the subject. I dislike the unbelievable politicization of the issue. It doesn't matter what "side" you're on. Politics has ruined this aspect of modern science. From where I'm sitting the IPCC could be correct, and we will see as time goes on if they are, or they could be overestimating the effects.

We're watching people run around all the time blaming AGW for any weather event under the sun, which is getting ridiculous. My position is that we should be aware that the Earth has been on an overall warming trend over the past century, and that there is a possibility that humans have influenced it, and that for many reasons besides just the weather, we should pursue clean and renewable energy around the globe. However, at the current politicized state that the science is in, I'm obliged to be skeptical.

And that is my two cents.




Way to tell it Levi!
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Learn about clouds and teach a child
each segment last around 60 min.

Tom Schlatter from the NOAA-Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado presents: Understanding and Appreciating Clouds

Link

CoCoRaHS WxTalk Webinars Link

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Biggest quake in 15 years rattles Red Centre

ONE of the biggest earthquakes recorded in Australia has struck near a remote outback town - but no damage or injuries have been reported.

The 6.1 magnitude earthquake was recorded near Ernabella, in South Australia's far north, just before 8.30pm (CDT) yesterday.

Ernabella is home to a few hundred indigenous Australians, with more living in the surrounding area.

The area is just south of the border with the Northern Territory, about 317 kilometres southwest of Alice Springs, 230km southeast of Uluru and 415km northwest of Coober Pedy.

South Australia Police said no injuries or damage had been reported.

The earthquake was recorded as being 6.1 magnitude at a depth of 3km by Geoscience Australia.

The Government's geoscience body said the earthquake could have caused damage up to 40km away and been felt by people up to 507km away.

It is the biggest earthquake recorded in Australia since a 6.3 magnitude earthquake off Collier Bay on West Australia's north coast in 1997.


According to the USGS...it was a 5.6...
Link
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Biggest quake in 15 years rattles Red Centre

ONE of the biggest earthquakes recorded in Australia has struck near a remote outback town - but no damage or injuries have been reported.

The 6.1 magnitude earthquake was recorded near Ernabella, in South Australia's far north, just before 8.30pm (CDT) yesterday.

Ernabella is home to a few hundred indigenous Australians, with more living in the surrounding area.

The area is just south of the border with the Northern Territory, about 317 kilometres southwest of Alice Springs, 230km southeast of Uluru and 415km northwest of Coober Pedy.

South Australia Police said no injuries or damage had been reported.

The earthquake was recorded as being 6.1 magnitude at a depth of 3km by Geoscience Australia.

The Government's geoscience body said the earthquake could have caused damage up to 40km away and been felt by people up to 507km away.

It is the biggest earthquake recorded in Australia since a 6.3 magnitude earthquake off Collier Bay on West Australia's north coast in 1997.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting NavarreMark:
>Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nobody is trying to run Levi off from what I have read. However, I think he is a little out of his league trying to talk about climate change. Neap and others are tough in that subject lol.


They're just very zealous for their religion and politics. They are actually quite ignorant and evil if ya ask me.

We got 2 1/4 inches of rain in Navarre today.


Climate science has nothing to do with religion or politics.

If you're looking to make ludicrous arguments like this, you need to head on over to WUWT. They love their conspiracy theories and absolutely abhor science.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That's good try to stay in shape as a kid. Don't worry your body is still developing so you shouldn't be worrying to much about that.Just do push ups everyday if you can.


You can't beat physics. To burn off the calories from an average soft drink (including Sunny D), you need to do A LOT more than 50 pull ups.

You find this out rather quickly when you lose your "kid" metabolism.
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From RSOE EDIS.

Coastal and sea level residents, take note.

Surging Indian Ocean tides have forced hundreds of people in northeast Tanzania's Pangani District to abandon their homes, as higher seas increasingly threaten settlements along East Africa's coastline. Several towns and villages are suffering flooding and intrusions of salt water, which are damaging property and tainting clean water supplies. Scientists and government officials attribute the problem partly to climate change, but crumbling sea defences are also to blame.
The increasing disaster threat has led government officials to urge residents to move to higher ground, and to promise to repair seawalls. But the country’s key tourism industry remains at risk as rising seas and worsening storm surges erode beaches and coastal infrastructure, experts say. In Pangani Diustrict’s Buyuni village, which lies just a stone’s throw from the shore, over a dozen families have abandoned their homes after they were flooded by the sea and sought refuge with friends and relatives in safer areas, according to village chairman Saleh Ali. Fisherman Vicent Magomba, 51, is increasingly worried about the security of his family home as sea water is eroding its foundations. “I don’t have peace of mind because I do not know when the water will destroy my house completely, and I do not have money to build another one,” he said.

Waves have left watermarks on the walls of most of the village’s brick houses, a clear indication of the threat their occupants face. The government has blamed the effects of climate change for the rising level of the Indian Ocean, which is disrupting life in many coastal settlements - from Pemba Tanga Bagamoyo to the country’s largest city, Dar es Salaam. “There is no doubt that sea-level rise has been inundating infrastructure, including roads and shallow water wells, in coastal towns,” Teresa Huvisa, minister of state responsible for the environment, told AlertNet in a telephone interview. “This is a deepening development challenge the country is facing.” Henry Laswai, a professor of climate science at Sokoine University of Agriculture in Morogoro, said human-induced climate change can directly affect sea level through a process known as thermal expansion, when warmer temperatures cause water to expand. Other factors contributing to sea level rise include the melting of glaciers – some of the world’s largest reservoirs of fresh water. “When the temperature exceeds a particular level, glaciers and ice sheets will lose mass, as is the case with glaciers on (Tanzania’s) Mount Kilimanjaro,” Laswai explained.

CRUMBLING SEA DEFENCES

Pangani residents say their problems began a few years ago when a 2km concrete buffer wall built in the German colonial era was badly damaged by waves. Sea water poured through into the streets. A large part of the sea wall has now been completely eroded, and when high tide comes, nearby residents brace for repeated flooding. But the flooding has also been worsened by clearing of mangroves which once formed a natural buffer against the ocean waves. Rubera Mato, an environmental engineer at Ardhi University, said mangrove trees - which thrive on salty water – have for years proven effective in protecting against sea erosion. District authorities have now warned Pangani residents living in flood-prone areas to take precautions, such as moving to higher land. Rafael Samson, a district natural resources officer, told AlertNet villagers could no longer sleep at night because they are afraid of high waves. “We have asked them to move their belongings to safer ground, and if they ignore this warning they will be endangering their own lives,” he said. Vice President Mohammed Gharib Bilal visited Pangani in January, telling residents the government was “fully aware” of what was happening and understood their predicament. “Do not be afraid - we will help you to solve this problem as soon as we possibly can, but you must protect the environment to the best of your abilities,” Bilal told a rally. He assured local people the government was taking steps to address soil erosion on the coastal strip, and would reconstruct the damaged wall to hold back ocean tides. According to the vice president, the sum of 2.3 billion Tanzanian shillings (around $1.5 million) has been earmarked for the work. But Costa Magali, a Pangani district welfare officer, blamed the government for delays in releasing the money to rebuild the wall despite knowing about the problem for some time.

FRESH WATER CONTAMINATED

In Pangani, loss of drinking water – as well as seawater intrusion into homes – may be one of the biggest threats. Residents in Pangani town are already experiencing severe shortages of drinking water as a result of the seawater intrusions - a problem Mohammed Hamis, a district environmental engineer, links to climate change. "The quality and quantity of surface water has particularly been affected,” he said. Salt water intrusion in the Pangani River has penetrated as far as 8 km inland due to the rising level of the Indian Ocean, Hamis said. That means fresh water must be pumped to Pangani town residents when the tide is low, or their supply will be tainted with salt water, he said. “We are now thinking of moving the pump house further upstream to avoid supplying residents with salt water,” he explained. In addition, many small rivers that feed into the Pangani River have become seasonal, flowing only in the rainy season when there is plenty of fresh water, Hamis said. Others have dried up completely. In some parts of the district, people who get their water from wells are finding that deep wells in particular are becoming increasingly salty, he said. “Rising sea levels have not spared deep wells. Many of them now produce salt water that is not fit for human consumption,” he warned.

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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
People really here saying Levi is not smart enough weather wise to debate with someone? LOL my god don't make me laugh at your stupidity.
Nobody said that. Levi made a few comments skeptical of AGW, and some here responded to him in a polite fashion. But then a visitor from the bunker stopped by to cause trouble by dropping a couple of troll bombs, and a few people responded. That's all.

I see on the short-term forecast that there's a huge blob of warm at the beginning of the week, with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s common throughout the Great Plains. These maps from HAMweather show pretty bizarre high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next three days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
People really here saying Levi is not smart enough weather wise to debate with someone? LOL my god don't make me laugh at your stupidity.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Anyone slightly curious about that cutoff blob expelled from the Early-Summer Spoiler low trekking northeast? It's kind of meandering in the northern gulf and looking like it wants to be something of its own.


It does look a bit suspicious, if nothing else.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21328
Anyone slightly curious about that cutoff blob expelled from the Early-Summer Spoiler low trekking northeast? It's kind of meandering in the northern gulf and looking like it wants to be something of its own.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nobody is trying to run Levi off from what I have read. However, I think he is a little out of his league trying to talk about climate change. Neap and others are tough in that subject lol.
From what I can tell, Levi seems to agree with a lot of the stuff Nea and the rest have to say. He acknowledges we have been warming, he understands and accepts the ghg theory, he knows humans must have some effect, and he agrees we should strive for cleaner energy sources.

He's just more cautious when it comes to model predictions, and less likely to label extreme weather events with global warming. He also said he was uncertain to what extent humans have influenced this warming.


All reasonable doubts, in my opinion. As far as the science behind it all, Levi agrees with Nea and the gang; its the predictions and the event blaming that Levi is taking a more cautious approach on.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Actually Jedkins01 is one of the better bloggers here.

I'm aware of that, that's why I was upset to see him say that he wasn't going to explain himself because he thought nobody cared.
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Quoting Levi32:


No. How about you read the NWS's description of the month and compare to today. Never-before seen heat, though yes the record lengths were shorter then, and conditions typical of April and May instead of March. 85 degree temperatures in Michigan. The monthly averages were in fact very similar (at least so far this month):



Levi, I'd like to see what years they are basing the anomalies off for those different maps. The second one says 1950-1995, but the first one doesn't say.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It looks like a potential killer on the March.
Was that pun intentional?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21328

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