Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

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The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.


Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.


Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)
Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?
2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms
Spring Landscape (thebige)
Spring Landscape
Jefferson Memorial (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.
Jefferson Memorial

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Likely tornado on the ground in Virginia. Look at the hook echo.



Where's all the typical Severe Weather people today? I feel alone here lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
550. wxmod
Quoting nigel20:

I've notice that northern Greeland is under drought conditions....is that due to low snow levels through out the winter?


I don't have info on that, however, last September there was a large area of black carbon soot on the snow in Greenland. Carbon soot seems to go hand in hand with drought because of the small droplet size that forms around the particles. The carbon comes largely from burning coal.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC001-033-037-051-057-063-065-067-069-077-081-08 3-085-093-101-
105-123-125-127-135-145-151-153-157-163-165-167-1 69-171-181-183-
185-191-195-197-250300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.120324T1935Z-120325T0300Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DURHAM
EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN
GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX
HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON
LEE MONTGOMERY MOORE
NASH ORANGE PERSON
RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROCKINGHAM
SAMPSON SCOTLAND STANLY
STOKES SURRY VANCE
WAKE WARREN WAYNE
WILSON YADKIN
$$
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
Quoting nigel20:

I think the possibility of an Ice Age occuring would be dependent on the eruption of a super volcano....say Yellow Stone, but I don't know if such an eruption would occur anytime soon....Just my simple opinion
Something as cataclysmic as a supervolcano erupting could have drastic effects on the Earth. Ice age.?..I dunno..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting Grothar:


Have you all kept the fighting at a minimum today? The weather here is absolutely perfect. A little warm for this time of year, but not a single cloud in the sky. Our friends took us boating today. The ocean water was quite warm.
LATEST VIS IMAGE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Strong wording from this watch...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DANVILLE VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...WW 105...WW
106...WW 107...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN VA AND THE NC PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM SPREADS EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ALREADY SUPPORTING SEVERE
STORMS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAS BACKED TO MORE
ELY COMPONENT APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO 1) SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
OVER WRN NC/VA...AND 2) WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BCMG BETTER
DEFINED FROM NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER SEWD TO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN.
STORMS MOVING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION. STORMS TRACKING NEAR OR ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TIME WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...CARBIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Here's what wiki has to say about runaway climate change...



Runaway climate change describes a theoretical scenario in which the climate system passes a threshold or tipping point, after which internal positive feedback effects cause the climate to continue changing without further external forcings.

The runaway climate change continues until it is overpowered by negative feedback effects which cause the climate system to restabilise at a new state.

The scientific consensus in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report[19] is that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." Note however that this statement is about situations weaker than "runaway change".


Estimates of the size of the total carbon reservoir in Arctic permafrost and clathrates vary widely. It is suggested that at least 900 gigatonnes of carbon in permafrost exists worldwide.[20] Furthermore, there are believed to be another 400 gigatonnes of carbon in methane clathrates in permafrost regions [21] with 10,000 to 11,000 gigatonnes worldwide.[21] This is large enough that if 10% of the stored methane were released, it would have an effect equivalent to a factor of 10 increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.[22] Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a higher global warming potential than CO2.


Worries about the release of this methane and carbon dioxide is linked to arctic shrinkage. Recent years have seen record low Arctic sea ice. It has been suggested that rapid melting of the sea ice may initiate a feedback loop that rapidly melts arctic permafrost.[23][24] Methane clathrates on the sea-floor have also been predicted to destabilise, but much more slowly.[21]

A release of methane from clathrates, however, is believed to be slow and chronic rather than catastrophic and that 21st-century effects of such a release are therefore likely to be 'significant but not catastrophic'.[22] It is further noted that 'much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere',[25] as it can be dissolved into the ocean and be broken down biologically.[25] Other research[26] demonstrates that a release to the atmosphere can occur during large releases.[clarification needed] These sources suggest that the clathrate gun effect alone will not be sufficient to cause 'catastrophic'[22] climate change within a human lifetime.

James E. Hansen has suggested that the Earth could experience a runaway greenhouse effect and adopt a climate like that of Venus if fossil-fuel use continues until reserves are exhausted.[27]



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_chan ge

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Have you all kept the fighting at a minimum today? The weather here is absolutely perfect. A little warm for this time of year, but not a single cloud in the sky. Our friends took us boating today. The ocean water was quite warm.
The weather here is nothing short of weird. Fast moving cumulus with breaks of Sun here and there. Goes from a pleasant 72 to a brisk 55 in a matter of seconds. Wind is picking up now to almost 30 mph with a line of showers ans storms on the doorstep. Had a strong thunderstorm last night, if it had been much stronger, there probably would have been some damage.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I find it strange that you've only seen hail here a couple of times because I can remember seeing hail at least five times in Hillsborough county, and I have to say it seemed to occur most during summer thunderstorms... maybe it's because a lot more seabreeze collisions occur just east of your location


That is strange... I've had sea breeze collisions near me that have resulted in monster thunderstorms before at their strongest point, when we get a strong southeast flow I often end up in the right area for strongest activity. North Pinellas is often a hot spot for excessive rainfall and severe weather during the summer. We also have a high occurrence for tornado activity, in fact I live in one one of the most tornado prone regions in the U.S. though I'll admit most of them are EF0-EF1 and strong tornadoes EF3 or greater are much more rare than in places we traditionally know of as being tornado hot spots.

Its because sea breeze collisions are good for tornado formation, but a lack of strong dynamics leaves most of these tornado spin-ups short lived and quite weak, thankfully. I've actually seen 3 tornadoes here, that makes more tornado experiences than hail lol. We actually came VERY close to being hit by what I remember was a confirmed EF1 tornado last spring, it passed around a quarter to half mile form here, it was hard to get a clear view of the vortex because of heavy precip, but I got a clear view of the large rapidly rotating wall cloud which looked more like a the parent wall cloud of a major tornado. I did get smashed by 70 to 75 mph downdrafts shortly after the meso passed by, that was intense enough for me :)


When I had Bay NEWS 9 on the meso with its tornado looked as if it was headed right form my house, the radar showed about 110 knots velocity with the couplet and I was bracing for a mess in my neighborhood which is about 75% mobile homes and 25% newer homes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
A lot can happen to the Earth, and for a lot of different reasons. I say lets move toward ridding the Earth of pollutants and Mother Earth will take care of the rest like she always does..If Earth goes into another Ice Age, the blog will be a bit slower due to very slow hurricane seasons, and AGW will be non-entity.

I think the possibility of an Ice Age occuring would be dependent on the eruption of a super volcano....say Yellow Stone, but I don't know if such an eruption would occur anytime soon....Just my simple opinion
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7885
Quoting BobWallace:


Where are you finding global temperature data for March 2012?


It was Fedex'd to him from the "I wish" department of the American Petroleum Institute.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Hello Boys and Girls.
who are you and what do you want :)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
from Frank Strait

Mighty impressive storms are ongoing in Alleghany/Wilkes Counties, NC and Carroll/Patrick/Floyd Counties, VA as today's severe weather outbreak begins in earnest late this afternoon. Both storms are rotating and can cause an isolated tornado. But, the shear profile is not the greatest. There isn't a lot of shear in the bottom 3000 feet or so of the atmosphere in the area ... but tons of shear from 3000 to 18,000 feet. So, while an isolated tornado or two can occur, very large hail and damaging downburst/straight line winds appear to be the greatest threat from this afternoon's storms. This evening could be pretty nasty in the area east of I-77 in VA, NC and SC.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings ancient one.


Have you all kept the fighting at a minimum today? The weather here is absolutely perfect. A little warm for this time of year, but not a single cloud in the sky. Our friends took us boating today. The ocean water was quite warm.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
Quoting Grothar:
Hello Boys and Girls.
Greetings ancient one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Just ran across this statement on Skeptical Science...

What is known, however, is that natural global warming periods during the Earth's deep past have been severe enough to cause hurricanes with so much force they've left permanent scars on the ocean floor.

One of the questions that I have unanswered is whether a warming climate will increase or decrease hurricane strength. Looks like there might be some data for increasing....

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Over-the-tipping- point.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Boys and Girls.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
Quoting Birthmark:

Agreed.


True. Land use is also another factor. So if you change your first sentence to "It is warming because of human activity." then it reflects our current understanding of the situation, based upon the available evidence.


Actually, it's not. The only scientific paper I remember reading on this topic was one that demonstrated why a runaway GE can't happen on Earth under current circumstances.


This one has gone back and forth a bit. At one time there was some concern. I think that that concern has lessened somewhat in recent years. But it's entirely possible that such a thing can happen. Let's hope it doesn't.
A lot can happen to the Earth, and for a lot of different reasons. I say lets move toward ridding the Earth of pollutants and Mother Earth will take care of the rest like she always does..If Earth goes into another Ice Age, the blog will be a bit slower due to very slow hurricane seasons, and AGW will be non-entity.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Most significant hail producer of the day is probably going to pass just south of me unless it turns north a little. It had a warning, but I have no clue why it was cancelled considering it is likely producing near golf-ball sized hail.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Neapolitan:
Living in South Florida, I've been in a million intense downpours, but once while crossing Alligator Alley, I drove at midday into a line of rain that was as black and as close to night as anything I've ever seen during the day. I mean, it was like entering a cave. I slowed down and put my wipers on full, but they couldn't begin to keep up with the amount of water that was coming down; I couldn't see 20 feet in front of me, so I pulled over to the side of I-75 and sat for a good ten minutes until it let up.


I had a similar experience while driving in Florida.

But it was love bugs....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN VIRGINIA
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BECKLEY WEST VIRGINIA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...WW 105...WW 106...

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR A SURFACE
LOW AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOIST AIRMASS AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
MODEST AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AS LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM
KY/OH. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY ASCENT
WITHIN/BENEATH EXIT REGION OF STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET
NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING WIND
EVENTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7640
Quoting nigel20:


Interesting how that's gonna miss Central Florida... Look at the deepest convection in the Gulf heading towards the area. Watch out from Tampa to Daytona Beach this evening. May get some severe weather down here as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Both North and South Carolina and VA's atmosphere is becoming more unstable by the minute..look for tornado warnings to increase
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105...

VALID 241854Z - 242000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105
CONTINUES.

LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN VA AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
ACROSS NRN NC. LOW-LEVEL SRH IS LIKELY ENHANCED WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL
ALONG THE CARROLL COUNTY VA AND SURRY COUNTY NC BORDER. LARGE HAIL
/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT PORTIONS OF WW 105 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH.

..GRAMS.. 03/24/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is going to pass over Wilmington, or just in that vicinity. I wish it would turn north just a bit so that it could come here.

I think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now warranted for the rest of Eastern North Carolina.


SPC's take. Click for text.



I be gone. I hope.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18415
As of the latest update from my NWS, we have a good chance later on.

AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...DYNAMIC SITUATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS FUELING THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND NUMEROUS RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES BEGINNING
TO FIRE TO THE WEST. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND TRUDGE
EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW WOBBLING ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSEE. CUMULUS FIELD IS ALREADY LOOKING IMPRESSIVE WITH A
FEW CELLS SHOWING UP. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS OUT WEST FROM 2200 UTC ONWARD. SPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SLIGHT RISK WE HAVE JUST ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
UNTIL 9:00 PM.

REGARDING POPS...I HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FROM
THAT POINT ON I HAVE LIKELY POPS MOVING TO THE COAST AND QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE AS ANY DIURNAL AFFECTS ALL BUT DIMINISH
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
CITING THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Jedkins01:



Hail is a lot less common in Florida for a a few reasons. I don't really feel like posting a giant comment on hail like I did a couple days ago. But hail has a lot more to do with temperature with height than intensity of thunderstorms. I live close to Clearwater FL and have lived here for 16 of my 21 years alive and have only seen hail 2 times ever, it was about quarter size and didn't stay frozen long, but times I've seen hail, it was from a cold front in the middle of winter and both times I saw hail the storms weren't all that impressive besides the hail.


Often times instead of hail here, you will see ridiculously massive rain drops, it has to do with warm air with depth. I remember we had a relative from Michigan down during a severe thunderstorms and the rain drops were absolutely monstrous, he said he had never seen anything close to that before in Michigan. Well honestly most of the time that is what happens here, instead of hail you just get extremely large rain drops that sting if they hit you, its water that has been suspended very long due to strong updrafts but because of the depth of warm air it isn't hail when it reaches the ground.


That being said, hail is defined more by wet bulb temperature and depth of heat, that is a tropical-like environment will generally mean less hail regardless of how powerful the thunderstorm is. Even when you do get hail here, generally speaking a thunderstorm that is producing hail here would likely produce much larger hail if the cell were say in Nebraska, especially if it was summer time.






I find it strange that you've only seen hail here a couple of times because I can remember seeing hail at least five times in Hillsborough county, and I have to say it seemed to occur most during summer thunderstorms... maybe it's because a lot more seabreeze collisions occur just east of your location
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7885
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Alrighty then...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is going to pass over Wilmington, or just in that vicinity. I wish it would turn north just a bit so that it could come here.

I think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now warranted for the rest of Eastern North Carolina.


theres one in Columbus County too..you may get your chance
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
Quoting Neapolitan:
The rainddrops here can get very large; I once read that many of the largest drops were actually hailstones that probably didn't melt until almost to ground level.

Living in South Florida, I've been in a million intense downpours, but once while crossing Alligator Alley, I drove at midday into a line of rain that was as black and as close to night as anything I've ever seen during the day. I mean, it was like entering a cave. I slowed down and put my wipers on full, but they couldn't begin to keep up with the amount of water that was coming down; I couldn't see 20 feet in front of me, so I pulled over to the side of I-75 and sat for a good ten minutes until it let up. The raindrops were absolutely humongous, but I assumed that was because they were so closely spaced that they were sort of clinging together and coming down as one. No one passed me as I sat, so I can only assume everyone was forced to pull over as I was. It was by far the most intense rainfall I've ever seen--and I've been in hurricanes and tropical storms.



Wow, that is crazy! Yeah, I've experienced rain like that before here at home and while driving, it is truly incredible how hard it can rain. I read an article somewhere in a credible science source about how there is still a mystery about the physics behind torrential downpours to some degree. I wish I could find it again and would post it here.

Anyways, the large size of the rain drop has a bit to do with both, it can be as a result from raindrops being so closely packed but also from hail at the same time.

I know that wind can act to "shred" raindrops into a thick curtain of smaller drops as seems to be common in tropical cyclone when the wind becomes very strong. However I've noticed that rain drop size will still remain relatively large even if it is very windy during the cores of deeper convection in both thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. I think that would probably mean that even during strong wind if you have hail, there is a large chance of the those drops remaining large and intact even during windier conditions because the wind has less time to interfere because the precipitation is solid initially.

Size of rain drop tells you a lot about the area of convection you are currently under as well, you might notice that large rain drops occur near the formation of a thunderstorm and where lightning is most intense, its all about the updraft feed.
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Quoting hydrus:
The globe is warming-- fact.

Agreed.

Quoting hydrus:
It is warming because mankind is pumping to much pollution into the atmosphere.-- Partial fact.

True. Land use is also another factor. So if you change your first sentence to "It is warming because of human activity." then it reflects our current understanding of the situation, based upon the available evidence.

Quoting hydrus:
Will the Earth suffer the Runaway Greenhouse Effect.?- Anything is possible.

Actually, it's not. The only scientific paper I remember reading on this topic was one that demonstrated why a runaway GE can't happen on Earth under current circumstances.

Quoting hydrus:
What gets me is rarely does anyone mention the fact that if the Global Conveyor Belt were to change abruptly, greenhouse effect or not, the Earth could be plunged into an ice age.

This one has gone back and forth a bit. At one time there was some concern. I think that that concern has lessened somewhat in recent years. But it's entirely possible that such a thing can happen. Let's hope it doesn't.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is going to pass over Wilmington, or just in that vicinity. I wish it would turn north just a bit so that it could come here.

I think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now warranted for the rest of Eastern North Carolina.


Yeah I agree
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
It's not the most well-defined rotation I've ever seen, but it's still a tornado warning regardless. North Charleston is right in the path.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Click for text


Add:
Related MCD
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18415
Latest update of Soufriere Volcano at 18z:

FVXX23 KNES 241808
VA ADVISORY
DTG: 20120324/1808Z

VAAC: WASHINGTON

VOLCANO: SOUFRIERE HILLS 1600-05
PSN: N1642 W06210

AREA: W_INDIES

SUMMIT ELEV: 3002 FT (915 M)

ADVISORY NR: 2012/003

INFO SOURCE: GOES-13. GFS WINDS. SEISMIC
DETECTION. METAR.

ERUPTION DETAILS: AREA OF VA MVING NW

OBS VA DTG: 24/1745Z

OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL050 N1658 W06227 - N1651 W06226
- N1644 W06245 - N1646 W06302 - N1653 W06300 -
N1658 W06227 MOV NW 10KT

FCST VA CLD +6HR: 25/0000Z SFC/FL050 NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +12HR: 25/0600Z NO ASH EXP

FCST VA CLD +18HR: 25/1200Z NO ASH EXP

RMK: DETEACHED AREA OF VA MVING TO NW. VA
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NEXT 6 HRS.
CONTINUOUS EMISSIONS OF STEAM AND GASES FROM
SUMMIT. ...SALEMI

NXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 20120325/0015Z

NNNN

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Quoting Cyclone2012:
Pauly, how's it going, dude? Everything going well on your front up there in the ''Carolinas''?
Stir that pot Cyclone. Stir it good..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting ncstorm:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC019-047-SCC051-241915-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0014.120324T1831Z-120324T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DULAH...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE RIVER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DULAH...
BUGHILL...
NAKINA...
ASH...
FREELAND...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3428 7846 3405 7835 3396 7878 3412 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 247DEG 14KT 3405 7873


It is going to pass over Wilmington, or just in that vicinity. I wish it would turn north just a bit so that it could come here.

I think a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now warranted for the rest of Eastern North Carolina.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Press better be lookin out.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
245 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

SCC019-029-035-241915-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120324T1915Z/
DORCHESTER SC-CHARLESTON SC-COLLETON SC-
245 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN COLLETON...WEST CENTRAL CHARLESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER METEOROLOGISTS
CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
FENWICK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...ADAMS
RUN...DELEMAR CROSSROADS...HOLLYWOOD...JAMES ISLAND COUNTY PARK...
JOHNS ISLAND...MAYBANK BRIDGE...MEGGETT...MIDDLETON PLACE...
RAVENEL...SHADOWMOSS...WADMALAW ISLAND AND YONGES ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8044 3269 8049 3295 8015 3273 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 236DEG 24KT 3268 8039

$$
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC019-047-SCC051-241915-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0014.120324T1831Z-120324T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
231 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DULAH...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE RIVER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DULAH...
BUGHILL...
NAKINA...
ASH...
FREELAND...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3428 7846 3405 7835 3396 7878 3412 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 247DEG 14KT 3405 7873

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
Quoting Cyclone2012:


Haha! Oh snap, did you create that countdown clock? It's TOTALLY awesome, man, ^_^.

Yeah....one of the most sensitive countdown clocks I've seen
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7885
Tornado Warning(s)
all or portions of the following counties,
In South Carolina: Charleston, Dorchester

Severe Thunderstorm Warning(s)
all or portions of the following counties,
In North Carolina: Brunswick, Columbus
In South Carolina: Charleston, Dorchester, Horry, Orangeburg
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14631
Tornado Warning just southwest of Charleston, South Carolina!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Cyclone2012:


Haha! Oh snap, did you create that countdown clock? It's TOTALLY awesome, man, ^_^.


I found it searching the WWW.You can create different countdowns with it.
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This is what a summer-like thunderstorm looks like in North Carolina.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting Jedkins01:



I find it interesting what you have to say here, my view on Climate Change is very much similar as Levi's is, why then am I attributed to having the same thinking as those who say "drill baby drill"...









Don't ask me, I never gave you that label lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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