Summer in March peaks in U.S. and Canada; record late snow in Oregon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 PM GMT on March 22, 2012

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A spring heat wave like no other in U.S. and Canadian history peaked in intensity yesterday, during its tenth day. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many temperature records broken for spring warmth in a one-week period--and the margins by which some of the records were broken yesterday were truly astonishing. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, commented to me yesterday, "it's almost like science fiction at this point." A few of the more remarkable records from yesterday:

Pellston, MI: record high broken by 32°F
Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past five days, Pellston has set five consecutive records for hottest March day. Yesterday's 85° reading broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by a ridiculous 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Low temperatures beat the previous record high for the date at two stations
The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan was 52° yesterday, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date! The low at Mt. Washington, NH yesterday (44°) also beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

Canadian cities break all-time April record for warmth in March
Not only was yesterday the warmest March day in recorded history for many of Canada's major cities, it was also warmer than any April day at St. John, New Brunswick. The city hit 25.4°C (78°F.) Not only did this crush the record high for March (previous record: 17.5°C), it is well above any temperature ever measured in April (extreme April temperature on record: 22.8°C.) Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 25.8°C yesterday, beating their all-time March record of 25.6°, and falling just short of their all-time April record of 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. As of 1 pm today, Halifax was at 27°C, beating their all-time April record. Other major cities in Canada that set all-time warmest March records yesterday included Ottawa (27.4°C), Montreal (25.8°C), Windsor (27.8°C), Hamilton (25.6°C), London (26.4°C), and Fredericton (27.1°C).


Figure 1. The intensity and scope of Summer in March is clearly visible in this data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on the Terra satellite. The map depicts temperatures on March 8 - 15, 2012, compared to the average of the same eight day period of March from 2000-2011. Areas with warmer than average temperatures are shown in red; near-normal temperatures are white; and areas that were cooler than the 2000-2011 base period are blue. These land surface temperatures are distinct from the air temperatures that meteorological stations typically measure, and indicate how hot the surface of the Earth in a particular location would feel to the touch. From a satellite vantage point, the “surface” includes a number of materials that capture and retain heat, such as sand in the desert, the dark roof of a building, or the pavement of a road. As a result, daytime land surface temperature are usually much higher than air temperatures—something that anyone who has walked barefoot across a parking lot on a summer afternoon knows instinctively. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Summer in March warmth crushes records in Michigan
Yesterday, nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula broke the record they set the previous day for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (84°), Flint (86°F, just 2° below their all-time April record), Saginaw (87°F, just 2° below their all-time April record), Grand Rapids (87°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (86°), Alpena (87°), Gaylord (83°, which was 26° above the average high for the date), Pellston (85°), Houghton Lake (85°), and Traverse City (87°, which was which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fifth consecutive day they tied or broke their record for hottest March temperature, and just 3° below their record high temperature of 90° for April.) In Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Sault Ste. Marie's 83° (26° above the average high for the date) crushed the previous March record by 8°, and was only 2° shy of the warmest temperature ever measured in April. Cities in states neighboring Michigan that broke all-time March records for warmth yesterday included:

Indiana:
Fort Wayne (87°) and South Bend (86°)

Ohio:
Columbus (85°), Toledo (85°), Cleveland (83°), and Mansfield (82°)

Wisconsin:
Milwaukee (84°), Madison (83°), and Green Bay (82°). The NWS office in Madison notes that in July of 2009, Madison only had seven days of 80 degree temperatures, and the highest temperature for the whole month was 82. This March, Madison has had five days of 80 degree temperatures, with a high temperature for the month of 83. Prior to this year, there had been only five March 80°F+ days in Madison's history, going back to 1869.

Record March warmth continues in the Northeast U.S.
For the second consecutive day, temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Hottest March temperatures on record occurred at Bangor, Maine (83°F), Houlton, Maine (79°F), Caribou, Maine (75°), Mount Washington, New Hampshire (54°F), and Buffalo, NY (82°).


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that is slowly drifting eastwards.

Remarkable late-season snow storm on West Coast
The convoluted jet stream pattern that brought Summer in March conditions to the Eastern U.S. and Canada is also bringing record snows to Oregon. Eugene, Oregon picked up 7.5 inches of snow yesterday, the largest snowstorm this late in the year on record. The previous record was a 7.6" snow storm on March 5 - 7, 1951. Snow amounts as high as 32" have been recorded in the Oregon Cascades over the past few days. A loop in the jet stream has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S., and large upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern was too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low is drifting slowly eastwards, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

Jeff Masters

Warm Looking Sunrise (Ralfo)
Warm Looking Sunrise
March? (visionaire)
Spring has sprung too early--flowering seems like April or May. Temperatures like June! Japanese Gardens, St. Louis, Missouri.
March?

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Quoting Minnemike:
i've been thinking much the same.. and that the lengthy solar minimum we'd experienced this past decade helped to mask the affects of perpetually rising atmospheric C02. now that the sun is waking up, i think this planet is about to undergo a rude awakening in tandem with the next solar maximum. my concern is that '98 is going to look like the new average, and the El Nino years ahead are going to be hot hot HOT!
the 'stabilized temp' trend that warming deniers use from the raw UAH data is about to become moot evidence, for any who don't believe climate scientists who have showed warming over the same period when adjusting for factors such as solar activity.


Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, indeed. During a La Nina, CO2-induced heat is being stashed away in the oceans at a great rate; when an El Nino comes along, some of that oceanic heat is released back into the atmosphere. And given the length and intensity of the current La Nina, there's no reason at all to think the next El Nino--especially if it's a strong one--won't see global temperatures higher than anything we've yet experienced

I've heard a number of meteorologists claim that this month's NA heat wave was far more intense than anyone will ever again see in their lifetime. But I think they're wrong.


I also think that the next strong El Nino will feature temperatures far higher than the record so far. Also, it is likely that a combination of the lengthy solar minimum of which you speak of in the 2000's, frequent La Nina's, and a distinct lack of moderately strong El Nino's is what "stabilized" the upward trend we were experiencing in the 80's and 90's.

It may be good news to some that the climate has "stabilized" over the last 10-12 years but in my opinion it's actually bad. The halt of the upward nature in temperatures is what fuelled debates over the last decade. These debates, which should have clearly ended in the 90's because it is obvious our climate is changing at a very rapid rate, have led many to believe that climate change is a hoax, conspiracy or whatnot.

Hopefully as the temperature starts climbing again, so too will the incentive and urgency of people to change our ways as quickly as possible.

Taken from wikipedia:





As you can see, since 2000, there has been a lack of moderately-strong El Ninos. La Ninas were much more frequent in the last 10 or so years than between 1980 and the year 2000. Just look at the amount of El Ninos in the 80's and 90's. This might have cause an exaggeration in the upward trend a little but not by much and now that we are experiencing frequent La Nina's since around 2000, the trend has somewhat stabilized.

Looking at the first graph, every La Nina since 1986 has been warmer than the last.
It's very feasible we reach an anomaly of +0.7C this year.

This is what I think... we won't know for sure until say another 5-8 years but I think that ample evidence will present itself between now and 2020 (which is around the time where solar will become close to parity in a lot of places) and we will finally start heading in a forward direction.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1298
Dat sucka rumbled and stumbled,...all night long till dawn.

Saw where a Huge Oak tree in Audubon Park lost a large portion of Bark from a Lightening strike.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Good Morning Folks. Sitting here in North Florida keeping an eye on the approaching squall line and amazed at the power and scope of this particular low..Just finished watching the "third" squall line come through the Northern Gulf states every morning for the last three days. Pretty amazed that this has been more of a rain event than a tornado event although one warning went up NE of Dothan in the last few minutes.
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Fun for me!

Lincoln NWS 10:07 am CDT.

LARGE STACKED LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF KANSAS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH SURFACE OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAD QUITE A BIT
OF FOG DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA EARLIER...BUT
VISIBILITIES WERE RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY 9 AM AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MOST SITES ABOVE 4 MILES THIS HOUR. HAVE BEEN
SEEING A RAPID INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI RECENTLY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. 12Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWED
500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -26C ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ENHANCE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWING
RATES OF AROUND 7.5 TO 8C/KM OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS BECAUSE OF THIS...WITH AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF I-55 MOST AT RISK.
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Quoting bappit:
From the link.

"For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space."

Also:

%u201C'Unfortunately, there%u2019s no practical way to harness this kind of energy,%u201D says Mlynczak. 'It%u2019s so diffuse and out of reach high above Earth%u2019s surface. Plus, the majority of it has been sent back into space by the action of CO2 and NO.' "


Cool stuff.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, indeed. During a La Nina, CO2-induced heat is being stashed away in the oceans at a great rate; when an El Nino comes along, some of that oceanic heat is released back into the atmosphere. And given the length and intensity of the current La Nina, there's no reason at all to think the next El Nino--especially if it's a strong one--won't see global temperatures higher than anything we've yet experienced

I've heard a number of meteorologists claim that this month's NA heat wave was far more intense than anyone will ever again see in their lifetime. But I think they're wrong.


It's only 66 degree F here where I am at and the last 11 days I've seen high temperatures of
75, 78, 81, 80, 79, 81, 80, 82, 83, 84, & 76. Our average high for this time of year through those 11 days are generally 49-50 degree F. So we have been about 30 degrees above average in that time frame. Our overnight lows are still 10 degree above our average high. That just adds to the ridiculousness.


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From the link.

"For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space."

Also:

"'Unfortunately, there's no practical way to harness this kind of energy,' says Mlynczak. 'It's so diffuse and out of reach high above Earth's surface. Plus, the majority of it has been sent back into space by the action of CO2 and NO.' "
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Quoting Minnemike:

Dudes, they're talking about the thermosphere.

"The thermosphere is the layer of the Earth's atmosphere directly above the mesosphere and directly below the exosphere. Within this layer, ultraviolet radiation causes ionization. The International Space Station has a stable orbit within the middle of the thermosphere, between 320 and 380 kilometres (200 and 240 mi). Auroras also occur in the thermosphere."

Wikipedia
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Storm is not rotating as of yet, if it is...it's very weak. But this storm has some punch to it, and its only 10am CDT. Not much sun yet either.

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I hope nobody calls the police with a noise complaint since i was poppin my LOUD cap gun lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like when that front reaches central florida things might get interesting around here...good morning folks, sunny and Warm here this morning..have a great day
It will get more interesting if this happens..Synopsis: La Nia is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012.

La Nia weakened during February 2012, as near- to- above average sea surface temperatures (SST) emerged in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). However, below-average SSTs persisted in the central Pacific, as indicated by the latest weekly Nio-3.4 and Nio-4 indices which were near -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened notably (Fig. 3), as reflected by a shallow lens (0m to ~25m depth) of positive temperature anomalies east of 125oW and by diminished below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). These changes are partly associated with strong low-level westerly wind anomalies across the eastern Pacific, which at times reflected the absence of equatorial easterlies in that region. Nonetheless, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to reflect the ongoing La Nia. Enhanced low-level equatorial easterlies persisted over the central and west-central Pacific, while convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Malyasia and the Phillipines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weakening La Nia.

A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to return during March-May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 6). The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Nia to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Nia is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

Because impacts often lag the demise of an ENSO episode, La Nia-like impacts are expected to persist into the upcoming season. Over the U.S. during March - May 2012, La Nia is associated with an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across western Washington, the Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes, while drier-than-average conditions are more likely across Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the southwestern U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 16 February 2012).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
Quoting hydrus:
looks like when that front reaches central florida things might get interesting around here...good morning folks, sunny and Warm here this morning..have a great day
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Quoting Birthmark:

Wouldn't that warm the entire Earth, not just the Eastern half or so of the US?
it would have, yes. turning the heat up on the whole system would amplify a heat wave and dampen cooling ability. i haven't viewed a big enough global picture, but in the last couple weeks i have observed less cooling in places that had cooling amplified by models, having not occurred. like Nea typed earlier regarding any extended cooling coming our way, i'll believe it when i see it. we know solar output impacts global temps, the short term blip on climate may have appeared; keep in mind it is partner to MANY factors that also drive temps, which it seems apparent quite a few are in play with the recent US/Canada heat. the sun is coming out to play too :/
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Quoting Jax82:


I read this article as well. I find it interesting how the sun was recently active and sent a CME our way, then the US has an unbelievable heat wave. Just sayin, its always a possibility it did something to the atmosphere.

Wouldn't that warm the entire Earth, not just the Eastern half or so of the US?
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Quoting Minnemike:
i've been thinking much the same.. and that the lengthy solar minimum we'd experienced this past decade helped to mask the affects of perpetually rising atmospheric C02. now that the sun is waking up, i think this planet is about to undergo a rude awakening in tandem with the next solar maximum. my concern is that '98 is going to look like the new average, and the El Nino years ahead are going to be hot hot HOT!
the 'stabilized temp' trend that warming deniers use from the raw UAH data is about to become moot evidence, for any who don't believe climate scientists who have showed warming over the same period when adjusting for factors such as solar activity.
Yes, indeed. During a La Nina, CO2-induced heat is being stashed away in the oceans at a great rate; when an El Nino comes along, some of that oceanic heat is released back into the atmosphere. And given the length and intensity of the current La Nina, there's no reason at all to think the next El Nino--especially if it's a strong one--won't see global temperatures higher than anything we've yet experienced

I've heard a number of meteorologists claim that this month's NA heat wave was far more intense than anyone will ever again see in their lifetime. But I think they're wrong.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
mornin all.
Mornin SPL..If this were to occur, already wet areas would be hit again...84 hour water vapor forecast loop..Link
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Surfing Sea Urchins in Puerto Rico
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mornin all.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Jax82:


I read this article as well. I find it interesting how the sun was recently active and sent a CME our way, then the US has an unbelievable heat wave. Just sayin, its always a possibility it did something to the atmosphere.
i've been thinking much the same.. and that the lengthy solar minimum we'd experienced this past decade helped to mask the affects of perpetually rising atmospheric C02. now that the sun is waking up, i think this planet is about to undergo a rude awakening in tandem with the next solar maximum. my concern is that '98 is going to look like the new average, and the El Nino years ahead are going to be hot hot HOT!
the 'stabilized temp' trend that warming deniers use from the raw UAH data is about to become moot evidence, for any who don't believe climate scientists who have showed warming over the same period when adjusting for factors such as solar activity.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
Posted this last night, I'll repost:


This report is provided to you on behalf of the State of Wisconsin's Emergency
Operations Center.

This afternoon, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that a 1.5 magnitude
earthquake struck early Tuesday morning in Clintonville. The earthquake struck
shortly after midnight. Officials with the USGS say loud booming noises have
been known to accompany earthquakes and it is possible the strange sounds
residents have been reporting at night might be related to the earthquake.

Wisconsin Emergency Management has been working with Waupaca County
Emergency Management Director Andrew Carlin and other local officials in regards
to the strange booming noises that have occurred this week.

According to Tom Evans, Assistant Director with the Wisconsin Geological and
Natural History Survey (WGNHS), Wisconsin has experienced about a dozen minor
events attributed to low seismic activities in the last 100 years. He says Wisconsin
sits on a relatively stable part of the continent. Details about the earthquake are
available at the USGS website, http://earthquake.usgs.gov


USGS Summary:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsu s/Quakes/usc0008n7t.php#details
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4" to 6" of rain across New Orleans.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
127 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ATTENTION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN TURNS TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROPAGATING THROUGH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC TODAY, PASSING THROUGH 140 AND 130W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ENERGY WILL ZIP THROUGH CANADA THIS WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, OR HIGHS OF 45 TO 55 AND LOWS OF
25 TO 35 (COLDER NORTH/WARMER SOUTH). THE CONCERN HERE LIES WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACT TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS AS THE PROLONGED PERIOD
OF RECORD WARMTH MEANS THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED IN SE
MICHIGAN. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY GOING FORWARD
. AS IT STANDS, THE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
TREND COLDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE MEX SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THAT LOW,
HOWEVER, IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE VERY WARM SOIL TEMPS, WARM
LAKE TEMPERATURES, AND LACK OF SNOWPACK UPSTREAM. THEREFORE, WHILE
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS COLDER THAN BLENDED GRIDS, THEY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE THE CONSENSUS.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
We (NH) broke the old high record by more than 20 degrees yesterday (84 vs 62 record), still above record at midnight last night so this is our 6th day in a row of high records. Cooling forecast but still not seasonal for at least a few more days.
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Models are trending colder for the Great Lakes and New England. From highs in the 80's to highs in the 40's. We knew it couldn't last forever.
Every extended forecast I see calls for temps throughout the country--with the exception of the west coast and the extreme tip of the northeast--to experience at or above average temperatures for at least the next ten days. Of course, it'll be nothing close to the Bizarro World of heat we've seen the past two weeks, but temps across the nation's midsection will nevertheless run between 10 to 20 degrees above normal (even higher in some spots). Caveat: I haven't really looked at the long range models for 10 days and beyond, mostly because they haven't done so well this spring as it is. IOW, I'll believe a deep and extended cold blast when I see it. ;-)
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Quoting Jax82:


Hey that would be new, 'normal' temperatures!


I know even 40's are still warmer than average in some places.
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"Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth's Upper Atmosphere."

March 22, 2012: A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years.

“This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”

Link
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Models are trending colder for the Great Lakes and New England. From highs in the 80's to highs in the 40's. We knew it couldn't last forever.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE AXIS OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO A RATHER LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID
DAY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE INLAND MOVING EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PRESENCE OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -12C @H5) WILL
ASSIST IN DESTABILIZATION OF LOCAL AIRMASS WITH WEAK STEERING
EARLY IN THE DAY ACQUIRING A MODEST WLY COMPONENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO RESPOND TO AN APPROACHING
CONTINENTAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY. EXPECT SOME DIURNALLY
CONDITIONED STORMS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHILE DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST OF VOLUSIA AND NORTH TO PERHAPS SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES WHILE DIMINISHING THROUGH AROUND 11 PM. TEMPS ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL AND SFC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH IN
STRONGER STORMS.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

Outlook through the afternoon
Sea breezes will drift inland from both coasts this afternoon, with a few showers along these boundaries. The best chance for thunderstorms will be over the interior sections late afternoon through early evening as sea breezes and outflows collide over the interior sections, roughly near the Interstate 4 corridor.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Good morning. More rain for Puerto Rico today as the trough lingers nearby. It has been a wet March that normally is our driest period of the year.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST FRI MAR 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE MID TO UPPER LOW/TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
DEPICTED ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THOSE SECTOR DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS SHOWERY WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN COMBINATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FA. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE AGAIN A
NEW ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DISSIPATES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE SINKING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN CIG/VSBY AT LEAST
TIL 23/14Z. IN ADDITION...MTN OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND RAGGED
LOW CLDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS AT TJSJ...TJNR...TIST... TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST
TIL 23/14Z. LLVL WINDS ARE EASTERLY BLO 10K FT...BCMG WESTERLY AND
INCR W/HT ABV 15K FT. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED
BTWN 35-45K FT TODAY.SFC WND GUST BTW 20-25 KTS PSBL W/PASSING
SHRA/TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MINIMIZING THE
FIRE THREATS UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 60 50 60 30
STT 82 73 83 73 / 70 60 60 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
More moisture for NOLA..
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
407 AussieStorm[quoting USGS]: ...PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT...
...coordinates: 26.068S, 132.122E...


84miles(135kilometres) southeast of Uluru

Beware of Dreamtime stirrings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

i would be surprised if anyone felt it. If they did they'd probably think it's a road train passing by.


they definitely felt it in Ernabella!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625
Quoting AussieStorm:

i would be surprised if anyone felt it. If they did they'd probably think it's a road train passing by.


yeah same here... the kangaroos and roadrunners probably felt it lol
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625
Quoting Dragod66:


weird eh? i just got the alert on my phone and i was like thats odd... good thing it was in the middle of the outback!

i would be surprised if anyone felt it. If they did they'd probably think it's a road train passing by.
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Quoting AussieStorm:



== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Geographic coordinates: 26.068S, 132.122E
Magnitude: 5.6 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 23 Mar 2012 09:25:16
Time near the Epicenter: 23 Mar 2012 19:55:16
Local standard time in your area: 23 Mar 2012 09:25:16

Location with respect to nearby cities:
317 km (197 miles) SSW (213 degrees) of Alice Springs, Australia
1164 km (723 miles) NW (326 degrees) of Adelaide, Australia
1919 km (1193 miles) WNW (298 degrees) of CANBERRA, Australia


weird eh? i just got the alert on my phone and i was like thats odd... good thing it was in the middle of the outback!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625



== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Geographic coordinates: 26.068S, 132.122E
Magnitude: 5.6 Mb
Depth: 10 km
Universal Time (UTC): 23 Mar 2012 09:25:16
Time near the Epicenter: 23 Mar 2012 19:55:16
Local standard time in your area: 23 Mar 2012 09:25:16

Location with respect to nearby cities:
317 km (197 miles) SSW (213 degrees) of Alice Springs, Australia
1164 km (723 miles) NW (326 degrees) of Adelaide, Australia
1919 km (1193 miles) WNW (298 degrees) of CANBERRA, Australia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

664
WFUS54 KMOB 230937
TORMOB
ALC013-035-231015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0025.120323T0937Z-120323T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EVERGREEN...OR 5 MILES WEST OF LYEFFION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHEL... COOKS CROSSROADS... COMMERCE...
BOWLES... GRACE... BEACON...
STARLINGTON... MIXONVILLE... DEANS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MANUFACTURED HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 3169 8672 3156 8696 3165 8709 3173 8698
3175 8691 3178 8691 3179 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0937Z 230DEG 21KT 3158 8707
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841


Upper Jefferson
Flash Flood Warning
Statement as of 3:38 AM CDT on March 23, 2012

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
northwestern Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Metairie... Kenner...
north central Lafourche Parish in southeast Louisiana...
St. Charles Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Hahnville...
southern St. John The Baptist Parish in southeast Louisiana...

* until 630 am CDT

* at 330 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected
flash flooding occurring from a line of repetative thunderstorms
over the warned area.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area over the next 3 hours.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warning area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property. Do not attempt to cross
swiftly flowing waters or waters of unknown depth by foot or by
automobile.


Lat... Lon 2964 9066 2981 9081 2990 9069 2989 9066
2991 9066 3009 9042 3007 9037 3006 9032
3001 9012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
St. Steven new brunswick got the hottest in the maritimes at 28.6 degrees and hali got up to 27.2... today we are expecting a temp at 11... thats a 16 degree drop!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 625
387 ScottLincoln: I would just love to see the study that shows the hypothetical, physically-based mechanism by which randomly dispersed debris in the ocean can cause enough statistically-significant warming to produce a massive heatwave....
But I guess if they are actually going to try and find evidence to substantiate their assertions, more power to them.


More or less what I wanted to say -- ie at least Margusity's hypothesis is interesting*enough to be testable from the margins -- though I doubt very much that Margusity (et al) is going to put in the effort needed to prove his proposition.

Certainly didn't mean to imply that I thought that "debris field instead of greenhousing" makes any sense. BUT the GreenhouseEffect in-and-of itself doesn't determine where the weirdest weather generated by the greenhouse-trapped extra energy is going to assert itself.
So it seems a natural to check whether a unique debris field with a main body the size of California has a connection with the steering of that greenhouse weirdness to create a unique weather situation over NorthAmerica.

BTW, apparently even Margusity says that his proposition is a long shot.

* ie Doesn't contain obvious false-or-unprovable assertions or glaring errors in assumptions that can be found through simple "back of the envelope" calculations.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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