Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2012

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Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

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534. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
220340Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E BVE TO
30 N BVE TO 35 SSE PIB TO 25 NW MEI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 322.

..PETERS..03/22/12

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

MSC023-039-041-047-059-061-075-101-111-131-153-22 0340-

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE GEORGE GREENE
HARRISON JACKSON JASPER
LAUDERDALE NEWTON PERRY
STONE WAYNE
$$


GMZ532-536-557-220340-

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

CHANDELEUR SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Teddy,maybe the Aussies when they say Autumm,is the Southern Hemisphere one that is Spring in the Northern Hemisphere?


Correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm gonna total them up 1 day at a time starting on March 13.
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Finally!! we got some good rain this evening, its about time lol!!!!!!..gotta love that gulf coast sea breeze
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Quoting bappit:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/extremes.asp


They limit to 500 records. They need to expand that limitation!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:




Famine to feast
Posted: Mar 21, 2012 7:34 PM CDT Updated: Mar 21, 2012 7:34 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


2011 will be remembered because of the historic drought, but 2012 may be remembered because of the much above-normal rainfall.

From January 1st through March 20th of 2011, we received only 5.35" of rain. Normally, we should receive 11.11 inches. So far this year, we have received 21.33 inches of rain...some areas have gotten more. That is a 290% increase this year from last year from Jan 1st through March 20th!!! And we are 108% above normal!

The historic drought of 2011 was caused by 2 factors. First, La Nina and second, much above-normal sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic. Both have weakened significantly which has allowed the recent heavy rainfall.

Yesterday, Tuesday March 20th, Southeast Texas received anywhere from two inches in Western Hardin County to ten inches in Southeastern Newton and Eastern Orange Counties. The Brooks Regional Airport picked up a record 4.22 inches. This has resulted in flooding of area streams with homes flooded in and around Orange. This was caused by strong upper-level low over Northwestern Texas and a conveyor belt of torrential rain that stalled over the area Tuesday Evening.

The good news is that forecast for the upcoming week shows no significant rainfall across the area.
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What difference a year can make
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8057
Quoting FatPenguin:
would love to get totals for records broken or tied (daily, monthly, max high and max low) since the heat/warmth wave started last week. Anyone?

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/extremes.asp
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Midway airport is still 78. Bet a lot of apartment buildings in Chicago don't have AC turned on yet.

For those baking in tenements--

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
913 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

...VALID 03Z THU MAR 22 2012 - 00Z FRI MAR 23 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW SRN 25 ENE HEZ 25 NE TVR 20 E GLH 35 WSW UTA 30 WNW ARG
25 E UNO 30 ESE VIH 20 NNW POF 30 S MKL 20 E TUP 25 ESE NMM MOB
40 ESE BVE 25 ESE KMDJ 15 NW KMYT QT9 10 S XCN 30 W XCN
35 NE 3B6 10 NW SRN.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE 7R3 15 ENE HDC 30 SSE JAN 45 NNE JAN 20 E GWO 35 NE GWO
30 SW TUP 15 NNW GTR 30 SSE MEI 15 NW PQL 1B7 15 ESE S58
20 S GSM 25 SSW KSPR 15 SSE KEIR 20 N KSPR 25 SE 7R3.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PIB 20 N GPT 25 SSE HSA 25 N 1B7
25 E NBG 25 N HSA 20 SSW HBG 10 NNE PIB 25 NE PIB 25 E PIB.



STGEST INFLOW AND LEADING EDGE OF STGR CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OUT
INTO ERN/SRN MS INTO EXTREME SE LA AS OF 01Z WITH SATL SHOWING
STGEST COLD TOPS EXTENDING SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO THE NRN GULF.
UPR AIR DATA SHOWS THIS STGEST ACTIVITY EMBDD WITH HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPLIT UPR JET WITH STG N/S POLAR
SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM WRN LA NWD INTO ERN KS. THE UPR LOW OVER
WRN OK IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD OVERNIGHT AND WITH
STG UPR RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. EXPECT SLOWLY MOVING DEEP
LAYERED N/S BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT OVER THE
CNTL GULF TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THUR. WHILE LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A BIT...LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH NARROW RIBBON OF PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ALONG
WITH TRAINING OF CELLS. EXPECT SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMUNTS OF 1
TO 2" INCHES WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SULLIVAN



Is that the same Sullivan (sullivanweather) that used to post here? Didn't he used to live in that general area?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FatPenguin:
would love to get totals for records broken or tied (daily, monthly, max high and max low) since the heat/warmth wave started last week. Anyone?
See #522...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


hamweather used to post that but doesn't now. I can't believe the heatwave this month. It's duration, extent, and the wide margins of the heat records set!
HAMweather only updates their records with the NCDC's once or twice a day. Because the NCDC has been down for several days (see Dr. Masters' blog entry), HAMweather hasn't had a chance to update yet. However, I compiled some of the NCDC numbers earlier. Keep in mind, none of the temperatures for yesterday or today are available yet, so they aren't included in this report from earlier:

--Over the ten days from 3/10 to 3/19, daily high temperature records outnumbered daily low temperature records by a somewhat lopsided 4,321 to 48, or roughly 90 to 1.

--Over that same ten days, daily high minimum temperature records outnumbered daily low maximum temperature records by a not quite as lopsided but still pretty startling 3,761 to 259.

--For 2012 as a whole, highs records of all types have outnumbered low records by 15,785 to 1,385, or 11.4 to 1. The imbalance of 14,400 wasn't reached last year until the massive end-of-July heat wave.

--Since January 1, there have been 367 new daily cold records broken. There were 642 high temperature records broken Sunday alone.

--There have been no days this month during which daily record lows outnumbered daily record highs. There were just five such days in February, and one in January. Of the past 100 days, then, there have only been seven with more lows than highs.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538




Famine to feast
Posted: Mar 21, 2012 7:34 PM CDT Updated: Mar 21, 2012 7:34 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


2011 will be remembered because of the historic drought, but 2012 may be remembered because of the much above-normal rainfall.

From January 1st through March 20th of 2011, we received only 5.35" of rain. Normally, we should receive 11.11 inches. So far this year, we have received 21.33 inches of rain...some areas have gotten more. That is a 290% increase this year from last year from Jan 1st through March 20th!!! And we are 108% above normal!

The historic drought of 2011 was caused by 2 factors. First, La Nina and second, much above-normal sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic. Both have weakened significantly which has allowed the recent heavy rainfall.

Yesterday, Tuesday March 20th, Southeast Texas received anywhere from two inches in Western Hardin County to ten inches in Southeastern Newton and Eastern Orange Counties. The Brooks Regional Airport picked up a record 4.22 inches. This has resulted in flooding of area streams with homes flooded in and around Orange. This was caused by strong upper-level low over Northwestern Texas and a conveyor belt of torrential rain that stalled over the area Tuesday Evening.

The good news is that forecast for the upcoming week shows no significant rainfall across the area.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


Sorry. NO I haven't. That's your take on it.


Weather modification nowadays is nothing short of a conspiracy, because there's no evidence for it.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening All.

I don't see much of anything behaving as it should this year so far, and I don't expect much different this Hurricane season. Things seem rather aggressive this year. Not that there is more, just the events that stand out are bringing their soap box. Still in full on La Nina mode here in the Deep Deep South East.


And in the Pacific Northwest, record setting snow storm in Oregon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening All.

I don't see much of anything behaving as it should this year so far, and I don't expect much different this Hurricane season. Things seem rather aggressive this year. Not that there is more, just the events that stand out are bringing their soap box. Still in full on La Nina mode here in the Deep Deep South East.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
I want some OREOS!!
Damn now I want some.
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Quoting Cyclone2012:
Also, don't focus so much on whether the season will be an El Nino year or not, because ULTIMATELY, irregardless of what it ends up being, if the steering pattern is a favorable one, then everything that forms out there WILL inevitably head for the Conus or some other landmass out there. And if this winter pattern (Which has had the jet-stream up around Canada) continues to hold on strong as we head into June without it budgeting, then we'll be in-store for a VERY dangerous cane season in our hands, not really mattering whether we're in weak, moderate, or strong El Nino conditions by then. Some food for thought for you weather weenies out there. Instead of getting so OBSESSED with whether El Nino will form or not.

Recall 92, an ''EL NINO''year with EXTREME unfavorable conditions all throughout the basin, yet we still had Andrew, didn't we?

You are quite right as we seem to thing that more storm equal more impacts, but that's not the case
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8057
Quoting FatPenguin:
would love to get totals for records broken or tied (daily, monthly, max high and max low) since the heat/warmth wave started last week. Anyone?


hamweather used to post that but doesn't now. I can't believe the heatwave this month. It's duration, extent, and the wide margins of the heat records set!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
913 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

...VALID 03Z THU MAR 22 2012 - 00Z FRI MAR 23 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NW SRN 25 ENE HEZ 25 NE TVR 20 E GLH 35 WSW UTA 30 WNW ARG
25 E UNO 30 ESE VIH 20 NNW POF 30 S MKL 20 E TUP 25 ESE NMM MOB
40 ESE BVE 25 ESE KMDJ 15 NW KMYT QT9 10 S XCN 30 W XCN
35 NE 3B6 10 NW SRN.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE 7R3 15 ENE HDC 30 SSE JAN 45 NNE JAN 20 E GWO 35 NE GWO
30 SW TUP 15 NNW GTR 30 SSE MEI 15 NW PQL 1B7 15 ESE S58
20 S GSM 25 SSW KSPR 15 SSE KEIR 20 N KSPR 25 SE 7R3.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PIB 20 N GPT 25 SSE HSA 25 N 1B7
25 E NBG 25 N HSA 20 SSW HBG 10 NNE PIB 25 NE PIB 25 E PIB.



STGEST INFLOW AND LEADING EDGE OF STGR CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OUT
INTO ERN/SRN MS INTO EXTREME SE LA AS OF 01Z WITH SATL SHOWING
STGEST COLD TOPS EXTENDING SOUTH OF THAT AREA INTO THE NRN GULF.
UPR AIR DATA SHOWS THIS STGEST ACTIVITY EMBDD WITH HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT RT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPLIT UPR JET WITH STG N/S POLAR
SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM WRN LA NWD INTO ERN KS. THE UPR LOW OVER
WRN OK IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD OVERNIGHT AND WITH
STG UPR RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. EXPECT SLOWLY MOVING DEEP
LAYERED N/S BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG ASSOCD COLD FRONT OVER THE
CNTL GULF TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THUR. WHILE LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED A BIT...LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG WITH NARROW RIBBON OF PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.8
INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ALONG
WITH TRAINING OF CELLS. EXPECT SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMUNTS OF 1
TO 2"+ INCHES WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SULLIVAN

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
Quoting aspectre:
467 WxGeekVA "What it's like logging into Wunderground during off-season
Hint: I'm not on the elevator.
"

I am.


This is me in my school elevator....Link
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Quoting SPLbeater:


How about noooo...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Your point about cooling this month is valid, but when monitoring ENSO events it's important to not take much short term info into account. It's more than likely just temporary cooling. If we see a sustained cooling or not much movement for the next two months, then we may have a trend that is worth something.

Good point
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8057
506. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not at all. I am just careful around you because, well, you've postulated many conspiracies.


Sorry. NO I haven't. That's your take on it.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
It resembles a tropical depression forming on the end of a front..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
would love to get totals for records broken or tied (daily, monthly, max high and max low) since the heat/warmth wave started last week. Anyone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
503. wxmod
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Incorrect. The individual stating the hypothesis has the burden of providing evidence to support that hypothesis. As of yet, you have not provided any peer-reviewed scientific research to back up your claims. You have made several accusations and purport that MODIS imagery supports your claims, but that is a far cry from the solid scientific evidence one would need to stand up to real scrutiny.

In fact, if one were to peruse the links returned from a Google when searching for aluminum in the atmosphere or "chemtrails", you get a veritable cornucopia of conspiracy sites with the occasional scientific debunking of said conspiracy thrown in. Even wikipedia has an article on the conspiracy theory, and they call it a conspiracy theory. This is hardly credible evidence to support your hypothesis.

On the other hand, studies have been done on condensation trails and their impact on climate. Those can be found in the archives of qualified science journals.

HAARP has nothing to do with weather modification. From the project site:

HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defense purposes.

I don't see how this project provides support to your hypothesis.

Weather modification does not "upset me", nor am I attacking you personally. You are making extraordinary claims, and that requires extraordinary proof. So far, your evidence leaves a lot to be desired.

And there's nothing wrong with that, as long as it is in the context of personal belief or speculation. For example, I believe life exists elsewhere in this universe. There's a lot of statistical arguments for this, as well as astrobiological arguments. But without actually observing extra-terrestrial life there's really only indirect evidence. I cannot make the statement, "It is a scientific fact that life exists elsewhere in this universe."

However, in your case you do make that leap and claim that what your saying is scientific fact. This is where I strongly disagree with you. You can't make that statement and be credible with the evidence you have right now. If you get some peer-reviewed research to back you up (or you yourself publish a paper on the subject in Nature or other qualified journal) then it'll be a different story.

Again, this is not a personal attack against you. I happen to like the fact that you post the pollution pictures captured by MODIS as I think a lot of people don't realize exactly how much impact we have on the planet.


You know something, I don't intend to try to discredit anything you have said. I see evidence of a ship trail, as defined by NASA, near the heart of the gulf storm. I didn't suggest that this was a conspiracy. I said nothing about it's intent or it's makeup. This could be the vapor trail of a carnival cruise line unintentionally exacerbating a deadly storm, or it could just be a cloud. I put the photo in front of you and you can certainly decide what it is.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
467 WxGeekVA "What it's like logging into Wunderground during off-season
Hint: I'm not on the elevator.
"

But I am.
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Quoting Cyclone2012:


Just this month, the eastern Pacific is cooling down again. We're very far away from an indefinite El Nino forming anything soon, with these temp fluctuations taking place from month-to-month. When this trend becomes more permanent, then and only then may I consider jumping into your camp.


Your point about cooling this month is valid, but when monitoring ENSO events it's important to not take much short term info into account. It's more than likely just temporary cooling. If we see a sustained cooling or not much movement for the next two months, then we may have a trend that is worth something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
You and I know pretty darn well that I'm the only darn blogger to get away with using the D word more than anyone else on here.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
CSU has been doing good the last several years(except 09).But either than that they have been pretty good.
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Quoting wxmod:


You're are the one with no proof that your ideas are correct. Elevated aluminum in such ridiculous places as the glaciers of Mt Shasta, expansive so called "contrails covering thousands of square miles and just the FACT that the HAARP exists are proof. More proof is that WXmod has been going on for over 70 years and is a huge industry around the world. Just as technology didn't stop with the atom bomb, technology in WXmod moves forward. Does this idea make you upset for some reason?
Here is some more proof:

There is almost no cloud cover over about half of the land mass of the world. Please open the MODIS website and take a good look at the world.


Incorrect. The individual stating the hypothesis has the burden of providing evidence to support that hypothesis. As of yet, you have not provided any peer-reviewed scientific research to back up your claims. You have made several accusations and purport that MODIS imagery supports your claims, but that is a far cry from the solid scientific evidence one would need to stand up to real scrutiny.

In fact, if one were to peruse the links returned from a Google when searching for aluminum in the atmosphere or "chemtrails", you get a veritable cornucopia of conspiracy sites with the occasional scientific debunking of said conspiracy thrown in. Even wikipedia has an article on the conspiracy theory, and they call it a conspiracy theory. This is hardly credible evidence to support your hypothesis.

On the other hand, studies have been done on condensation trails and their impact on climate. Those can be found in the archives of qualified science journals.

HAARP has nothing to do with weather modification. From the project site:

HAARP is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere, with particular emphasis on being able to understand and use it to enhance communications and surveillance systems for both civilian and defense purposes.

I don't see how this project provides support to your hypothesis.

Weather modification does not "upset me", nor am I attacking you personally. You are making extraordinary claims, and that requires extraordinary proof. So far, your evidence leaves a lot to be desired.

And there's nothing wrong with that, as long as it is in the context of personal belief or speculation. For example, I believe life exists elsewhere in this universe. There's a lot of statistical arguments for this, as well as astrobiological arguments. But without actually observing extra-terrestrial life there's really only indirect evidence. I cannot make the statement, "It is a scientific fact that life exists elsewhere in this universe."

However, in your case you do make that leap and claim that what your saying is scientific fact. This is where I strongly disagree with you. You can't make that statement and be credible with the evidence you have right now. If you get some peer-reviewed research to back you up (or you yourself publish a paper on the subject in Nature or other qualified journal) then it'll be a different story.

Again, this is not a personal attack against you. I happen to like the fact that you post the pollution pictures captured by MODIS as I think a lot of people don't realize exactly how much impact we have on the planet.
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Magnitude 5.2 - KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
2012 March 22 00:21:34 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.2

Date-Time
Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 00:21:34 UTC
Thursday, March 22, 2012 at 08:21:34 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
3.485°N, 125.697°E
Depth
92.4 km (57.4 miles)
Region
KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA
Distances
239 km (148 miles) NNE of Manado, Sulawesi, Indonesia
295 km (183 miles) SSE of General Santos, Mindanao, Philippines
1063 km (660 miles) WSW of KOROR, Palau
1334 km (828 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16.8 km (10.4 miles); depth +/- 3.8 km (2.4 miles)
Parameters
NST=134, Nph=140, Dmin=352.9 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp= 79°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008n07
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting KoritheMan:
El Nino may very well develop (history certainly dictates that it should). I vividly recall the abrupt and rapid transition from neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2006, which significantly hindered Atlantic hurricane activity. Despite all of my doubts and reasoning that we will not see El Nino appreciably affect this year's hurricane season, there is that particular bit to remember...

Thanks for the reminder KoritheMan
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8057
Quoting Cyclone2012:


CSU has been doing quite poorly in recent years when it comes to their seasonal cane forecasts. Therefore, don't hold your breath for them to get it right for this year. An El Nino by June is an EXTREME exaggeration coming from their behalf. One that will be proven to be wrong, soon enough. If any El Nino were to form, it wouldn't happen till August or so. And if so, it would be very anemic.


Where is your proof for these claims? It has been my impression that CSU has done fairly well the last several years. If you have any info as to why we won't see an El Nino, please show. I'm still on the fence about it, but I'm starting to fall over into the El Nino side as more data leans that way.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That's just to [Censored] funny!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..And its moved about 3 feet in 4 days.

Yeah...it's moving like a snail
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8057
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The CSU folks are banking on El Nino comming by June or July,but I think it will be by the fall that El Nino will come albeit weak.


However, these guys - who have been pretty much spot on for the last 5 years, believe we're heading for neutral well into the second half of autumn.
The 2011–12 La Niña event is nearing its end, with most indicators approaching or at neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, with a neutral ENSO state expected to persist at least through the second half of autumn. While La Niña is nearing its end, waters around Australia remain warmer than normal, maintaining the potential for increased rainfall over the continent.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.