Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2012

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Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

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585. wxmod
Quoting Jedkins01:



No, its not an opinion, I know that's what it is, because I've observed thousands of them on satellite before. In fact, I was tracking that very same convective complex, and in the loop, you can see the outflow boundary pulling away from the parent convective cells, soon after the convection began to weaken as expected.




So you're saying it is possible to look at a satellite photo and give an expert opinion that could be construed as evidence of what is going on on the ground? Without doing a study? Hmm.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
i love looking forword too this time of year
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reporting JAVE to the modes for bypassing banneds is going too be fun
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Quoting Cyclone2012:


You're quite the aspiring conspiracist, aren't you? LOL.



are you JAV?
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581. wxmod
Quoting Jedkins01:



Dude, seriously, HAARP cannot change the worlds weather, that isn't even possible, why don't we just use HAARP to get terraform Mars while we are at it?


Seriously, its absolutely impossible for HAARP to do what you claim.



Really?

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Quoting wxmod:


Thanks for your OPINION.



No, its not an opinion, I know that's what it is, because I've observed thousands of them on satellite before. In fact, I was tracking that very same convective complex, and in the loop, you can see the outflow boundary pulling away from the parent convective cells, soon after the convection began to weaken as expected.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
Quoting Jedkins01:



Dude, seriously, HAARP cannot change the worlds weather, that isn't even possible, why don't we just use HAARP to get terraform Mars while we are at it?


Seriously, its absolutely impossible for HAARP to do what you claim.



Its radio waves... you know the ones that come from every star in the universe? they can modify the weather so much.
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Quoting wxmod:


You crack me up. I gotta lay out scientific evidence and you read 2 articles and you're giving expert opinions. Come on man. There's a lot they haven't told you. Just don't close your mind and you'll see what I mean.



Dude, seriously, HAARP cannot change the worlds weather, that isn't even possible, why don't we just use HAARP to get terraform Mars while we are at it?


Seriously, its absolutely impossible for HAARP to do what you claim.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
576. wxmod
Quoting Jedkins01:



No, that's not a trail of a ship dude, that's what is known as an outflow boundary...


Thanks for your OPINION.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
575. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


We're far from the point to where we can alter synoptic scale meteorology. And frankly, I doubt we'll ever reach that point.


You crack me up. I gotta lay out scientific evidence and you read 2 articles and you're giving expert opinions. Come on man. There's a lot they haven't told you. Just don't close your mind and you'll see what I mean.
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574. Skyepony (Mod)
Kori~ Synoptic weather patterns aren't being attempted to be modified by seeding. Other tactics by more than one country are in play, along with chaos of spinning through space & the added heat/melt.

There is no doubt we aren't in complete control of the weather. But cloud seeding is a huge business. People don't throw millions at projects that have gone on for decades for fun. This is funded by agriculture & power companies because it works & makes them more money. This is not one of those things that one has to master to all ends to reap profits.

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Quoting wxmod:
The heart of the storm in gulf today and what appears to be the straight line path of a ship along side it. This "ship trail" as NASA calls them, is about ten miles wide.
MODIS satellite photo



No, that's not a trail of a ship dude, that's what is known as an outflow boundary...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
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Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7271
570. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks all sorts of dry in Wisconsin & the Dakotas. Fire season is getting an early start there~ burnt thousands of acres, destroyed rural homes and caused two deaths just this month.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Keeper~I would have liked to have seen the info presented at the meeting..


Kori~ Money...It's worked for more than 50 years. Well enough corporations, hydrological power plants, Big Ag & such pays several companies to modify the weather when they can. There is other reasons. Read those links wxmod put out there from govt sites. You want to be a weatherman look up instead of putting your head in the sand & quit walmart:)


ScottLincoln~ I agree. Hail suppression seems to have a pretty good slice of this & looking on the google maps there it's being done in areas that it makes sense to do it. Planes don't usually show up here unless there is some weather to modify..


I went and looked at a couple of them. I don't deny it exists, but it seems that, as Scott said, its effects are very narrow in scope, limited to specific ambient circumstances. Even then, near as I can tell, it had literally no effect on last year's Texas death ridge, making it unlikely that the effects are felt over anything more than an extremely local level.

We're far from the point to where we can alter synoptic scale meteorology. And frankly, I doubt we'll ever reach that point.
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568. Skyepony (Mod)
India~ When Mumbaikars woke up to a hazy Wednesday morning, they thought it was normal and the air would clear by afternoon. But it didn't and the haziness lingered until evening. Weathermen have blamed it on the sandstorm in Rajasthan. In an isolated and uncommon phenomenon, north-easterly wind brought dust from Rajasthan to Mumbai and Dahanu, said officials of meteorological department. "Dust storms have been reported in Jaipur and other areas over the past two days. Wind flowing via some parts of Gujarat carried the dust particles to Mumbai, especially the western suburbs of the city," said VK Rajeev, director, meteorological department (Mumbai). Sources claimed the hazy day in Mumbai was because of the storm from the Middle East countries to Rajasthan. The meteorological department, however, disagreed. "The Middle East case has nothing to do with Mumbai's curtain of haze," Rajeev said. While the dust in the air did not affect visibility of motorists for most of the day, the visibility dropped to 1,200 metre at city airports, the department said. "The haze did not affect air traffic though," said an official from Mumbai International Airport Private Limited, requesting anonymity. The meteorological department officials said the dust is likely to disperse by Thursday morning. Senior citizen AK Anand, a Deonar resident, was greeted with a dusty air when he went for a walk in the morning. "When we went for a walk, we were wondering what had caused so much dust in the air. I haven't seen a day like this in Mumbai before," he added. The weather kept parents worried about the health of their children, especially those with respiratory problems. "Such a weather is bad for children. Already the city is polluted and the dust storm added to its woes," said Anil Joseph, a Bandra resident.
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567. Skyepony (Mod)
That place in Wisconsin that was having the loud booms the last few days had them again last night. Some people said the ground was rolling. There is some odd activity picking up on a monitor 40 miles away since Sunday. Geologist from the local university said the area sits on granite.. the water filled cracks of which may be drying out quickly with the heat & all, causing the cracks to collapse close with a loud BOOM.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
if we knew the truth it would truly scare us

for the first time since the dawn of time we have put ourselves into a position if a collapse occurs it will be global for the first time instead of regional as before in history
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wxmod:


Give me a break. Look it up. I did. My computer isn't dedicated to storing every detail of every study just to prove something to you. Besides, I don't remember where I read it. Probably Palouse Power or PGE website. Or CA water board, or Colorado or Texas or Dakota.gov. I don't read conspiracy websites. LOOK IT UP. You'll find way more than you want to know.
yep eveything is just an experiment from making water to fuel to food to the power we use all a great experiment nothing more nothing less
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at this: TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. I continue to marvel at NOAA forecasts. Does anyone in the NWSFO understand they put out forecasts that make no sense? Why not at least make sense? Now I do have a disagreement with them as to snow totals, for instance at the Jersey Shore where I think they wind up closer to 3 than 1, but that is not my problem. My problem is the darn forecast says they will get an inch, that it is a fact that there will be an inch, but then has SNOW LIKELY THIS EVENING. How the heck can it only be likely? It has to snow to accumulate an inch, doesn't it? How is there a 70% chance of snow, but you say it will accumulate an inch? How can it accumulate an inch, if there is a chance it doesn't fall (30%)?
—Joe Bastardi, Accuweather.com Professional, December 5, 2007

It is dumb the way they do it because people don't understand probability in general. It is the probability of that snow melting down to at least 0.01 inches of liquid. Some offices do not even do the probability, they will do it as a "coverage". So 30% chance of rain means 30% coverage over the area they cover. But back to the snow, so depending on the snow amount and the ratio of that snow, 1 inch of snow may only equal a trace of rain. Or they don't even get an inch of snow (closer to a trace). They have a hard time forecasting actual snow amounts anyway. So for those two examples, there was "no precipitation" for that day and they lose to guidance cause it only had 50%. Even if that particular office's policy of forecasting was actual % chance of snow, if there were any gaps in the precipitation, some areas do not even get snow while others get 6 inches of snow. So for the place that didn't get snow the 30% of not getting it should have been 0% chance of snow while the other was 100% and should have had a higher forecast amount. So either way people are going to complain about their specific point and say the forecast sucked. That is how the business goes, however...
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562. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...according to...? What scientific studies can you cite that show how this was calculated and indicate how often one can replicate the results?


I've seen that somewhere but don't remember where.

It's a huge business & figured to the penny. One of the cheapest..though older figures in Utah.. & keep in mind it changes by the region & what is trying to be accomplished. Some places have more moisture & is just cheaper..

From the analyses in this report, the estimated average annual increase in runoff
due to cloud seeding in Utah is 249,600 acre-feet. This is an average annual increase of
13.0 percent. The estimated project cost for the 1999-2000 season is $254,300. The
resulting cost per acre-foot is about one dollar ($1.02).



Here's another from 2005 in Wyoming that UCAR is involved in..

Total projected cost for the five-year program is $8.825 million, for an annual cost of $1.765 million. Conservative estimates of projected benefits range from a minimum of 223,000 to 446,000 acre-feet per season. Cost per acre-foot is estimated to be a maximum of $7.91, to a minimum of $3.96 per acre-foot. The value of the additional water thus generated is conservatively estimated to range from $4.2 million to $8.3 million per season, however these estimates do not include any benefits that might be realized though increased hydro-electric power generation, improved recreation and fisheries, tourism, slowing the melting of glaciers, improved water quality and conditions for certain endangered species, or by meeting downstream water requirements.

Value of the additional water generated is estimated to range from $10-$12 per acre-foot for agricultural uses, and from $75-$100 per acre-foot for municipal and industrial uses. However, water demand, and thus values are constantly increasing. According to Ed Harvey, Inc., an economic consulting firm that has contributed significantly to Wyoming river basin planning, the City of Fort Collins is presently paying $400 per acre-foot for water rights to satisfy its municipal demands, and in some industrial applications the value is know to be up to $5,000 per acre foot. The above-mentioned estimated benefits reflect only the current, conservative values, however.
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561. wxmod
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...according to...? What scientific studies can you cite that show how this was calculated and indicate how often one can replicate the results?


Give me a break. Look it up. I did. My computer isn't dedicated to storing every detail of every study just to prove something to you. Besides, I don't remember where I read it. Probably Palouse Power or PGE website. Or CA water board, or Colorado or Texas or Dakota.gov. I don't read conspiracy websites. LOOK IT UP. You'll find way more than you want to know.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
560. Skyepony (Mod)
Keeper~I would have liked to have seen the info presented at the meeting..


Kori~ Money...It's worked for more than 50 years. Well enough corporations, hydrological power plants, Big Ag & such pays several companies to modify the weather when they can. There is other reasons. Read those links wxmod put out there from govt sites. You want to be a weatherman look up instead of putting your head in the sand & quit walmart:)


ScottLincoln~ I agree. Hail suppression seems to have a pretty good slice of this & looking on the google maps there it's being done in areas that it makes sense to do it. Planes don't usually show up here unless there is some weather to modify..
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It is snowing again. The temp. has dropped to 33 degrees F and there is a light dusting on the ground. High temp today was only 36 F... one of the coldest high temps so late in the year I have seen in 40 years or more. This is one of the later times in the year we have actually had snow on the ground. When will spring arrive? I would like to get my garden worked up and get a few early things planted soon. Just north of Portland Oregon.
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Quoting wxmod:


Koritheman,
We do not need to figure that out. The figure is this: it costs 11 to 13 dollars to manufacture an acre foot of water.


...according to...? What scientific studies can you cite that show how this was calculated and indicate how often one can replicate the results?
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
I picked up 0.67 tonight from a quick heavy storm off the sea breeze collision tonight. This honestly THE earliest I have ever seen significant sea breeze thunderstorms activity.

No, I'm not saying I've never seen thunderstorms in March, thunderstorms are normal year round in Florida, but normally they come from occasional frontal systems/and or upper level disturbances, not just from sea breeze collisions when combined with moisture and heating like we get in the rain season. Some of the thunderstorms to my east were down right powerful tonight, producing a ton of lightning, it honestly has me really wondering how things will be come July :0

Water temps are approaching 80 here too...


Anyways, radar decided to underestimate again, we got over a half inch of rain but it think we only got a trace, LOL. I'm very thankful for the rain though the drought has been getting very bad, it was probably our first decent little rain in over a month! My front yard looks like it was doused with gas and set on fire its so dried out and withered.


The only reason we only technically have moderate drought is because had a lot of rain last year, but as far as short term drought goes, its probably quite severe right now.




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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
555. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


Then I retract my previous statement. Still, what evidence is there that this stuff actually works? That's what we need to figure out next.


Koritheman,
We do not need to figure that out. The figure is this: it costs 11 to 13 dollars to manufacture an acre foot of water. Water companies, hydro-power companies, cities and watershed managers on small and large scales all know this. The water that costs them a few bucks can be worth thousands. Water managers upstream are constantly fighting to get water away from the water companies downstream. Sec. Gail Norton said the 21st century will be the century of the water war.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Quoting Skyepony:



NCAR doesn't seem to think so..

Check out the Weather Modification Association mentioned there. It's like the AMS for weather modification. I hadn't checked their site in a while & wow they now have the current projects going on in real time on the google map. Check it out.. Right now are trying to make it snow where it's cold out west & of course rain in TX.. They list the companies & everything.



Seems less like NCAR is agreeing with full fledged weather modification and more that they are on board with the discussion of how well experiments have worked. Experiments like cloud seeding have very mixed results and can only work in certain situations, so what they are talking about is of a different magnitude of modification compared to earlier discussions.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
Quoting Cyclone2012:
Hey Levi, do you believe that the pattern that we had this past winter will continue into the spring and then into the summer as well? Hence, creating a favorable steering pattern for land-falling hurricanes this year? Any early stabs at this possibility?
i figure the luck of the shower curtain could hold and nothing will get near but we have to wait and see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting SPLbeater:

hey WxGeek....wasnt it you who said awhile ago "In long-range GFS we trust"? xD


Yes. Yes it was. But not anymore.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Hoping today's tornado in my community gets people to heed future warnings. I was telling my aunt about that, and she said "There was no warning. Well there was, but I guess no one really expected this to happen."

smh freaking smh
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Good night all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
549. wxmod
These are some government and news media sites discussing to WEATHER MODIFICATION. Weather modification sites are best located by typing site:gov or site:edu or site:us into your search before you type weather modification, precipitation enhancement, solar radiation management, cloud whitening, radiative forcing. geoengineering, stratospheric welsbach seeding, nanoparticle aluminum oxide. Type your state to find out weather modification projects for your area. Don't forget to go to the HAARP website to find out about that facility. You may also be interested in the 4 petawat laser at the Lawrence Livermore Lab and other cutting edge science. Technology is on the move!

http://www.ladpw.org/wrd/cloudseeding/index.cfm

http://www.agriculturedefensecoalition.org/sites/ default/files/file/weather/450WV_2011_NOAA_Interim _Listing_of_Weather_Modification_Programs_Spreadsh eet_11WXMOD5_as_of_July_7_2011.pdf

http://www.agriculturedefensecoalition.org/sites/ default/files/file/weather/450WV_2009_NOAA_Final_L isting_of_Weather_Modification_Programs_Spreadshee t_09WXMOD5.pdf

www.waterplan.water.ca.gov

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/jun/16/local/me- seeding16

http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/article_0 2d3af57-0bbd-5423-ad5a-bb79b7573fcf.html


http://cwcb.state.co.us/water-management/water-pr ojects-programs/Pages/%C2%ADWeatherModificationPro gram.aspx
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1738
Quoting Skyepony:



NCAR doesn't seem to think so..

Check out the Weather Modification Association mentioned there. It's like the AMS for weather modification. I hadn't checked their site in a while & wow they now have the current projects going on in real time on the google map. Check it out.. Right now are trying to make it snow where it's cold out west & of course rain in TX.. They list the companies & everything.



Then I retract my previous statement. Still, what evidence is there that this stuff actually works? That's what we need to figure out next.
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Quoting Skyepony:



NCAR doesn't seem to think so..

Check out the Weather Modification Association mentioned there. It's like the AMS for weather modification. I hadn't checked their site in a while & wow they now have the current projects going on in real time on the google map. Check it out.. Right now are trying to make it snow where it's cold out west & of course rain in TX.. They list the companies & everything.

there is always more to the picture than meets the eye
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
This is one of those nights when I'll be glad to see the pillow. Stay safe everyone! And when bad weather threatens, think about your neighbors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
544. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Weather modification nowadays is nothing short of a conspiracy, because there's no evidence for it.



NCAR doesn't seem to think so..

Check out the Weather Modification Association mentioned there. It's like the AMS for weather modification. I hadn't checked their site in a while & wow they now have the current projects going on in real time on the google map. Check it out.. Right now are trying to make it snow where it's cold out west & of course rain in TX.. They list the companies & everything.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting geepy86:
Everybody is taking about the record highs. But to get an average you also have to have record lows. It's all in the record keeping, only since the 1800's. Not much of an average in my book......just saying.


Numerous posts very close to your post indicate the number of record warm minimum temperatures that have occurred recently as well. In fact, minimum temperatures are warming at a faster rate than high temperatures, which makes sense because nightime temperatures are more affected by longwave radiation from the lower atmosphere... exactly what the enhance greenhouse effect has altered. So no, everyone is not just talking about the record highs.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
March 13 218 record highs and 134 record high lows. 352 total.
March 14 460 record highs and 209 record high lows 669 total.
March 15 498 record highs more than 500 record high lows. At least 998 total.
March 16 at least 500 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 1,000 total.
March 17 498 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 998 total.
March 18 at least 500 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 1,000 total.
March 19 434 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 934 total.


March 20 & 21 not yet available.

For record low highs that week, 190 total
For record low lows that week, 36 total


Wunderground really needs to get rid of the 500 record limitation since there were more than 500 record highs or record high lows on single days!

Wow! I'm speechless
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting Chucktown:
Nice read explaining the recent record warmth for those who (like myself) don't believe it's being caused by some sort of climate change.

Link


That blog post addressed the short-term, weather-related factors that contributed to the event. They certainly seem relevant and may have been the culprit. But saying that it was only those events and not related to climate change would not be correct. Weather will still occur just as it did before. Warm spells will still occur under the same synoptic conditions that cause warm spells. But with more heat and moisture in the air globally, these larger-scale weather events will act different over time. It's not like we can look right on a weather map and go "oh, that's climate change right there on the map causing this ____ event."

As you can see from the statistics indicated in previous posts, it would be very very rare for the conditions to come together to cause this type of event without global climatic changes. And when you start to see events like this over and over, it shows that the statistics have changed. That's what climate change is.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
Everybody is taking about the record highs. But to get an average you also have to have record lows. It's all in the record keeping, only since the 1800's. Not much of an average in my book......just saying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1008 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LONG BEACH...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PASS
CHRISTIAN...OR NEAR LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LYMAN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
March 13 218 record highs and 134 record high lows. 352 total.
March 14 460 record highs and 209 record high lows 669 total.
March 15 498 record highs more than 500 record high lows. At least 998 total.
March 16 at least 500 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 1,000 total.
March 17 498 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 998 total.
March 18 at least 500 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 1,000 total.
March 19 434 record highs and at least 500 record high lows. At least 934 total.


March 20 & 21 not yet available.

For record low highs that week, 190 total
For record low lows that week, 36 total


Wunderground really needs to get rid of the 500 record limitation since there were more than 500 record highs or record high lows on single days!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


How about noooo...

hey WxGeek....wasnt it you who said awhile ago "In long-range GFS we trust"? xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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