Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2012

Share this Blog
31
+

Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 85 - 35

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Drought through at least June in FL.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
82. BobWallace 12:57 PM EDT on March 21, 2012
Why don't you do a bit of digging/research to find out what drove those earlier "natural" (i.e., not human caused) cycles?


I don't have the time to do the research but thanks for the info...................
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Global climate change isn't going to kill anyone.
The extreme weather it makes more common, the longer and more severe heat waves, the more widespread flooding, the ecosystem and biodiversity losses triggering agriculture failures, the exacerbated storm surges from extratropical/tropical storms... well any of those might. The effect will not be direct and even today is tough to measure indirectly, but it will have a growing contribution.

and then there is the impact of all the excess CO2 on the oceans - increases in acidity due to excess CO2 is making the oceans hostile to many species in the food chain...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. M.; It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.

The next few decades of data will go a long way towards validating many of the concerns as to climate change. What I do not know (and it may not be possible during my/our current life time) is whether the current trends and anomalies are due to natural cycles (over thousands of years of "Earth" time as documented by ice core samples and other similar data)or whether this truely signals climate change due to carbon emissions and other man-made factors.


Why don't you do a bit of digging/research to find out what drove those earlier "natural" (i.e., not human caused) cycles?

I'll get you started. Here's the Wiki section on ice age causes...

"The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for both the large-scale ice age periods and the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age.

The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years[38] ); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth-Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.[citation needed]"

Now as you dig into those reasons pay attention to how many, many years it takes for the Earth to change orbit or for a mountain range like the Himalaya to grow tall enough to change circulation patterns.

We're experiencing a ~100 year heat up. The known 'natural' events which could change climate that quickly (up or down) would be large meteorite impacts, supervolcanoes/swarms of volcanoes - extreme events. We just haven't observed any of those happening.

"Natural" does not mean "magic". Natural means that some physical force, other than humans, creating change. The natural forces that we know about 1) are too slow acting to cause change this quickly or 2) haven't shown themselves in the last couple of centuries.

On the other hand we know the physics of how CO2 in the atmosphere blocks heat from escaping a planet. We know that the amount of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere has soared over the last 60+ years. And we know exactly where that CO2 came from.

I'd suggest you spend some time and answer the question for yourself. There are several very excellent sites that will help you decide whether the heating that you are experiencing is or is not human caused.

You can start with Skeptical Science which takes each element in the climate change question and addresses it, first at a general level and then let's you dig further into the science and research.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Or you could start with the folks who really are rocket scientists - NASA.

http://climate.nasa.gov/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting percylives:


Young'un, global warming is what is going to make your life miserable after I'm dead and gone.

I predict you'll curse us dead'uns and all the fossilized carbon we put in the atmosphere as we "saw the USA in our Chevrolet".

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong



aint nothin goin to make my life miserable in the form of nature:D

I aint worried about no stinkin fossilized carbon.

I aint worried about no (fake) temperature climb.

I aint worried bout no sea level rise.

All of this is my personal view. Not starting arguement, not my style. :D


anyways...got some nice thunderstorms developing around the Wilmington, Jacksonville and New Bern areas in NC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure there will be a myriad of things that could and would kill me many times over before GW does...


Global climate change isn't going to kill anyone.
The extreme weather it makes more common, the longer and more severe heat waves, the more widespread flooding, the ecosystem and biodiversity losses triggering agriculture failures, the exacerbated storm surges from extratropical/tropical storms... well any of those might. The effect will not be direct and even today is tough to measure indirectly, but it will have a growing contribution.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3293
AWCN13 CWTO 210912
Updated weather summary for Northern Ontario issued by
Environment Canada at 4:46 AM EDT Wednesday 21 March 2012.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
==weather event discussion==

Very mild air across the region Tuesday resulted in temperatures
Near the 20 degree mark in many communities.

A few record maximum temperature records were set for Tuesday
20-mar-2012 and are listed in the table below. Normal daytime
Highs for this time of the year are near the freezing mark across
much of Northern Ontario.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new temperature record previous record

Moosonee 23.4 15.6 (1946)
Lansdowne House 19.8 8.3 (1961,1970,1987)
Pickle Lake 18.7 12.4 (1987)
Big Trout Lake 15.3 9.1 (1987)
Peawanuck 9.7 4.8 (2011)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
Quoting percylives:


Young'un, global warming is what is going to make your life miserable after I'm dead and gone.

I predict you'll curse us dead'uns and all the fossilized carbon we put in the atmosphere as we "saw the USA in our Chevrolet".

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong



I may be too optimistic but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Electric cars and solar power are getting cheaper by the year. At some point in the near-future the cost will be lower than the fuel-consuming engines and alternative sources of electricity we use today. By soon I mean in 10-15 years. People have always wanted to get more bang for their buck and that won't change. The switch to renewable ultra-clean power will happen very quickly when it comes. The sun provides an abundant and infinite amount of energy and in the next couple of decades everyone will have access to incredibly cheap and clean energy.

In either case, we still have at least 40 years of unpredictable changes to the global weather patterns due to the significant warming of our planet even if we started switching today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AWCN12 CWTO 210921
Weather summary for Northern Ontario issued by
Environment Canada at 5:21 AM EDT Wednesday 21 March 2012.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
==weather event discussion==
Yesterday was the first day of spring, but it felt like the first
Day of summer in parts of Northern Ontario. We are nearing the end
Of a historic warm spell across Ontario with record temperatures
tumbling by the dozen every day. Almost 160 daily high temperature
records have been rewritten over the past week across the province.
Some records have been shattered by as much as 14 degrees.

Normally we are still feeling the chill of winter's final breath.
But instead, words such as humidex, daffodils and patio weather
Are on everybody's lips. Even across Northern Ontario the snow
Pack has been melting at inconceivable rates. For instance,
Geraldton reported 31 centimetres of snow on the ground on March
18th. Two days later it had virtually all melted.

It appears that this March will likely be the warmest March on
Record for some places.

This warm spell will continue across Northeastern Ontario today
Until a cold front introduces somewhat cooler air tonight.

Below are record maximum temperature records set on Tuesday
20-mar-2012. Please refer to the table below for more details.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new temperature record previous record

Kenora 14.3 14.2 (1987)
Red Lake 15.8 12.8 (1945,1987)
Sioux Lookout 16.4 14.1 (1987)
Fort Frances 16.5 14.5 (1987)
Thunder Bay 21.5 13.3 (1946)
Upsala 18.5 9.4 (1961)
Geraldton 16.9 9.4 (1987)
Kapuskasing 26.2 16.1 (1946)
Timmins 26.1 13.6 (1979)
Chapleau 25.3 15.6 (1946)
Wawa 23.1 8.6 (1987)
Sault Ste Marie 22.0 16.1 (1946)
Sudbury 23.1 10.2 (1979)
North Bay 24.4 14.4 (1946)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
AWCN11 CWTO 210923
Updated weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the
National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada
At 5:21 AM EDT Wednesday 21 March 2012.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
==weather event discussion==

Yesterday was the first day of spring, but it felt like the first
Day of summer. We are in the midst of a historic warm spell across
Ontario with record temperatures tumbling by the dozen every day.
Almost 160 daily high temperature records have been rewritten over
the past week across the province. Some records have been shattered
by as much as 14 degrees.

Normally we are still feeling the chill of winter's final breath.
But instead, words such as humidex, daffodils and patio weather
Are on everybody's lips. Even across Northern Ontario the snow
Pack has been melting at inconceivable rates. For instance,
Geraldton reported 31 centimetres of snow on the ground on March
18th. Two days later it had virtually all melted.

It appears that this March will likely be the warmest March on
Record for some places. In Toronto (Pearson airport), the previous
record warm March was 1946 with an average temperature of 5.2
Degrees (the average of all high and low temperatures), where
normally the average is -0.4 degrees for Pearson. Given the
Forecast trends for the final days of March, it appears this record
may be handily broken. In fact, March 2012 May go down as the month
with the warmest departure from normal of any month for Toronto,
including downtown where records began in 1840! The hottest March
Day ever recorded at Pearson was 25.6 set back in 1946 on March
28th. This may very well be broken on Thursday of this week.

This warm spell is also remarkable for its duration. It is more
reminiscent of a persistent summer heatwave. The warm spell is
projected to last through Thursday after which a cold front will
introduce somewhat cooler air (but still above normal) on Friday.

Below are record maximum temperature records set on Tuesday
20-mar-2012. Please refer to the table below for more details.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
Location new temperature record previous record

Windsor 27.0 19.4 (1976)
London 25.1 16.7 (1976)
Kitchener-Waterloo 25.3 20.0 (1918)
Hamilton 24.2 17.8 (1976)
Mount Forest 24.1 18.9 (1918)
Wiarton 25.1 15.9 (1995)
Toronto downtown 20.9 19.4 (1918)
Toronto Pearson 21.9 18.3 (1976)
Buttonville 23.1 13.2 (1995)
Barrie 23.4 17.2 (1921)
Orillia 24.0 19.4 (1903)
Borden 26.2 13.3 (1968)
Trenton 23.3 14.4 (1946)
Kingston 21.2 5.9 (2010)
Peterborough 23.7 5.3 (2005,2010)
Muskoka 24.8 15.0 (1946)
Parry Sound 24.8 4.9 (2005)
Algonquin east gate 24.5 15.0 (1918)
Ottawa 25.8 14.6 (1995)
Petawawa 24.0 13.9 (1979)

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
Levi, I am worried about the perception by many people of not an active season when they start to hear that in the news that may become complacient and not pay attention to what may be going on in the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are wrong you won't be dead unless you think you won't be here to see 2020 thats 8 years away by then we will be seeing much much more and not gentle like we have been seeing it but much much worse



I'm quite sure there will be a myriad of things that could and would kill me many times over before GW does...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7988
The NCDC finally fixed the extremes weather page and has updated the numbers for the past week (though data from yesterday--Tuesday--is still missing):

--Over the ten days from 3/10 to 3/19, daily high temperature records outnumbered daily low temperature records by a somewhat lopsided 4,321 to 48, or roughly 90 to 1.

--Over that same ten days, daily high minimum temperature records outnumbered daily low maximum temperature records by a not quite as lopsided but still pretty startling 3,761 to 259.

--For 2012 as a whole, highs records of all types have outnumbered low records by 15,785 to 1,385, or 11.4 to 1. The imbalance of 14,400 wasn't reached last year until the massive end-of-July heat wave.

--Since January 1, there have been 367 new daily cold records broken. There were 642 high temperature records broken Sunday alone.

--There have been no days this month during which daily record lows outnumbered daily record highs. There were just five such days in February, and one in January. Of the past 100 days, then, there have only been seven with more lows than highs.

And so on, and so forth...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MSP airport has broken its record for the warmest period over a year (3/21/2011 - 3/210/2012) at 50.21F. Previous record was 50.07F on 12/13/1987. We are predicted to break the all time Minneapolis record of 50.90F set on 1/1/1932 (moved offical site from downtown to airport in late 1939). Based on predictions, I have MSP breaking the 51 F barrier by the end of the month. Minneapolis data goes back to 1891. Will also be the warmest 12 month period in Minneapolis/MSP history (using monthly averages).
I have MSP breaking its previous highest March average, 42.4F, by at least 7F.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting percylives:


Young'un, global warming is what is going to make your life miserable after I'm dead and gone.

I predict you'll curse us dead'uns and all the fossilized carbon we put in the atmosphere as we "saw the USA in our Chevrolet".

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong

you are wrong you won't be dead unless you think you won't be here to see 2020 thats 8 years away by then we will be seeing much much more and not gentle like we have been seeing it but much much worse
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
Dust, smog Atlantic, West coast Africa. Today Modis

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1769
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:




it is bad, i got a 103 fever after going outside for a while, ( it passed in a few hours). Not quite everything is yellow yet, the pine pollen will do that.


I reckon i should be thankful that i am not affected by pollen. Or poison Ivy. Or fire ants lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol what is global warming


Young'un, global warming is what is going to make your life miserable after I'm dead and gone.

I predict you'll curse us dead'uns and all the fossilized carbon we put in the atmosphere as we "saw the USA in our Chevrolet".

For your sake, I hope I'm wrong

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
The U.S. is often not safe when the Atlantic is not at its prime. Some of its worst landfall seasons have occurred during "normal" activity years.

This particular fact is telling. The worst hurricane season for the United States ever in terms of total hurricane landfalls (6) occurred in 1985. There were 11 total named storms that season, and these were the average SST anomalies during its height:



Nice to have you back Levi.... You hit the nail on the head once again. Some of the worst US landfalls have occurred during El Nino years and the SE US/Caribbean will be at risk due to general steering patterns that may set up come August and September.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And the agenda continues
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The U.S. is often not safe when the Atlantic is not at its prime. Some of its worst landfall seasons have occurred during "normal" activity years.

This particular fact is telling. The worst hurricane season for the United States ever in terms of total hurricane landfalls (6) occurred in 1985. There were 11 total named storms that season, and these were the average SST anomalies during its height:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol what is global warming


it is the act of adding to the atomsphere
various man made chemicals
which increases temps
and water vapour levels
to the point of causing
large scale ice loss
higher surface temps
with wild swings in occurences
alter weather patterns
which affect plant and animal life forms
across the entire planet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
Quoting Levi32:
CSU's probabilistic prediction lines up nicely with my thoughts as well for about 9-11 storms.


I was thinking about you when I saw it for the first time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CSU's probabilistic prediction lines up nicely with my thoughts as well for about 9-11 storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Remember that the numbers may not mean so much as we have past years excamples of not active years like 1992 etc. And the old saying of "it only takes one" will probably be the case this year.


Of course. That will always be the case. It's not how many we have in a season, but how many make landfall that makes us worry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, that's basically what I've been thinking. I've been saying I expected at least a weak El Nino to show itself during the peak of hurricane season. The newest ECMWF forecast even shows a moderate strength El Nino. Even if we stay warm-neutral in the peak of hurricane season, I still don't see more than 10 or 11 named storms mainly because of the lack of heat that needs to be taken out of the Atlantic.


Remember that the numbers may not mean so much as we have past years cases of not active years like 1992 etc. And the old saying of "it only takes one" will probably be the case this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stay safe Pat if you are out there....That nasty squall line is getting ready to rotate into the New Orleans area.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
March 20, 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
March 20, 2011
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodness it's rained so much this morning since I woke up. I think we're over two inches already since this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
gee i saw yesterday on CNN, that pollen in Atlanta is horrible, everything simply covered in yellow pollen, man we have that oak pollen here around my area which is bad but you folks, gee..plse keep it up there lol..




it is bad, i got a 103 fever after going outside for a while, ( it passed in a few hours). Not quite everything is yellow yet, the pine pollen will do that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We had a tornado warned cell pass through S. Tangipahoa parish a few minutes ago.

It must not have been on the ground, or else missed us a few miles to the east.

Plus it was downgraded to a S. Thunderstorm about the time of the closest approach anyway.

The wind got pretty darn strong and changed directions a few times, but the power didn't go out and I don't see any evidence of broken trees, so I guess it probably only gusted to about 50mph here maybe only one or two gusts to that strength.

I think a few miles east of here they might have gotten some stronger winds and tighter rotation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you agree with todays CSU brief update of a not active Atlantic season between 8-11 named systems? (Posted on post #7)


Yeah, that's basically what I've been thinking. I've been saying I expected at least a weak El Nino to show itself during the peak of hurricane season. The newest ECMWF forecast even shows a moderate strength El Nino. Even if we stay warm-neutral in the peak of hurricane season, I still don't see more than 10 or 11 named storms mainly because of the lack of heat that needs to be taken out of the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ycd0108:
Heard someone mutter as I was scraping the hard ice off the windshield this morning: "No Global Warming here."
Since no other person was out there within 1/4 mile I figured the voice must have been from one of my own personalities.
How many temperature, rainfall, drought, snow, wind, tornado, SST, jet stream loops and God Forbid, hurricane
records must fall before that goof gets the message?



lol what is global warming
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you agree with todays CSU brief update of a not active Atlantic season between 8-11 named systems? (Posted on post #7)
numbers, gee, it only takes One, coming to your area, for you, it Will be an active season if it comes your way, numbers by themselves are useless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
37. RitaEvac 11:52 AM EDT on March 21, 2012

You are correct; a Quote from the Hurricanes of the Gulf book from Kelm and Muller; "We also strive to demonstrate unique features of the Gulf that influence the development of hurricanes, such as the loop current and its eddies, and to identify the areas of the coastline that are more or less vulnerable because of the physical environment, socio-economic environnment, or both."

The Gulf is a unique animal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
showers n t-storms popping up pretty nice now..the contest begins between me and the NWS!

Only rules are that the cells that do severe while Im sleeping or cant be at computer, they dont count. Also, they have to be in the raleigh NWS County Warning Area.

gon be fuuuun
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Interesting graph in your blog today...

On a similar topic, the ice in the Great Lakes is drastically different between this year and at the same time last year.







The repercussions of this and the dwindling snow pack across the area are quite obvious. Cold air masses wont be as cold as they usually are and warm air masses will not modify as they move north so we can expect a greater number of heat waves this spring. I call for an early mid or late-may start to summer for Ontario and Quebec, probably even earlier to the south. Could be a long one given the current pattern...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heard someone mutter as I was scraping the hard ice off the windshield this morning: "No Global Warming here."
Since no other person was out there within 1/4 mile I figured the voice must have been from one of my own personalities.
How many temperature, rainfall, drought, snow, wind, tornado, SST, jet stream loops and God Forbid, hurricane
records must fall before that goof gets the message?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


The Gulf of Mexico is a very small body of water relative to the Atlantic, so the SSTs in the Gulf have little to no effect on tropical activity. The GOM will always be warm enough for strong hurricanes in the peak of the season. The key is whether the Gulf is conducive for tropical spin ups since the Gulf can sometimes be dominated by strong shear due to troughs that stall out or strong CONUS high pressure to the north.


Do you agree with todays CSU brief update of a not active Atlantic season between 8-11 named systems?

(See post #7)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
People up in the Great Lakes region maybe shocked if they find themselves with snow in forecast with highs in the 30's & 40's. Models have been on and off about this but it is something to watch as the Southern Branch is expected to start getting active next week.

i won't be shocked thats normal we can get snow here in toronto the latest i have ever seen is april 15 but nothing after that by april 15 spring is good to go
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55605
Strong rotation in the tornado warning:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta broke two weather records Tuesday: One you feel in your toes, the other you feel in your nose.

The region's seventh straight day of daytime highs above 80 degrees broke the record for most consecutive days above 80 in March, set in 1907.


Meanwhile, the pollen count continued to skyrocket into uncharted territory Tuesday, climbing another 1,205 points above Monday's record-shattering mark.

The count of 9,369 particles of pollen per cubic meter of air Tuesday -- the first day of spring -- is 55 percent higher than the record prior to this week of 6,013, set on April 12, 1999.
Last year, the highest pollen count measured by the Atlanta Allergy and Asthma Clinic was 3,939 on March 24.

Pharmacist Ira Katz told Channel 2 the pollen levels – and the run on allergy medicines by customers -- are the worst he’s seen in the 31 years he’s operated the Little Five Points Pharmacy on Moreland Avenue in Atlanta.

“It seems like 60 to 70 percent of what we’re selling today is allergy-related,” Katz said.

gee i saw yesterday on CNN, that pollen in Atlanta is horrible, everything simply covered in yellow pollen, man we have that oak pollen here around my area which is bad but you folks, gee..plse keep it up there lol..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zschmiez:
Which return period is it? 43 years or 4800 years? Didn't quite understand that part.

4-sigma is 43
5-sigma is 4799
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlanta broke two weather records Tuesday: One you feel in your toes, the other you feel in your nose.

The region's seventh straight day of daytime highs above 80 degrees broke the record for most consecutive days above 80 in March, set in 1907.


Meanwhile, the pollen count continued to skyrocket into uncharted territory Tuesday, climbing another 1,205 points above Monday's record-shattering mark.

The count of 9,369 particles of pollen per cubic meter of air Tuesday -- the first day of spring -- is 55 percent higher than the record prior to this week of 6,013, set on April 12, 1999.
Last year, the highest pollen count measured by the Atlanta Allergy and Asthma Clinic was 3,939 on March 24.

Pharmacist Ira Katz told Channel 2 the pollen levels – and the run on allergy medicines by customers -- are the worst he’s seen in the 31 years he’s operated the Little Five Points Pharmacy on Moreland Avenue in Atlanta.

“It seems like 60 to 70 percent of what we’re selling today is allergy-related,” Katz said.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Phil Klotzbach/Dr William Gray dont analize the GOM in their seasonal outlooks. I asked why on their Facebook page and below is the answer.


We usually look at the tropical Atlantic by itself. Gulf of Mexico SSTs do not correlate well with seasonal Atlantic basin activity.


The Gulf of Mexico is a very small body of water relative to the Atlantic, so the SSTs in the Gulf have little to no effect on tropical activity. The GOM will always be warm enough for strong hurricanes in the peak of the season. The key is whether the Gulf is conducive for tropical spin ups since the Gulf can sometimes be dominated by strong shear due to troughs that stall out or strong CONUS high pressure to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Phil Klotzbach/Dr William Gray dont analize the GOM in their seasonal outlooks. I asked why on their Facebook page and below is the answer.


We usually look at the tropical Atlantic by itself. Gulf of Mexico SSTs do not correlate well with seasonal Atlantic basin activity.


Which is why the GOM is a whole other animal, like us in TX, we really don't pay attention to the Atlantic, it's the Gulf alone we watch, even if an Atlantic storm comes into the GOM, then we watch it.

We're the last line of defense other than Mexico, so the Gulf is our world
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The Gulf and US has been pretty lucky the past few years and You folks in PR have had a few close calls but nothing catastrophic..... The Gulf is always a big concern and all we can do is pray and hope for the best this year. Hope that the general public does does not let their guard down when they hear "less than average" but that will perception will change quickly if we get a real strong storm make landfall in a populated area early in the total numbers season.


I got an answer about the GOM.See post 35.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Phil Klotzbach/Dr William Gray dont analize the GOM in their seasonal outlooks. I asked why on their Facebook page and below is the answer.


We usually look at the tropical Atlantic by itself. Gulf of Mexico SSTs do not correlate well with seasonal Atlantic basin activity.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 85 - 35

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast