Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on March 21, 2012

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Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20904
Quoting PlazaRed:

But you will be affected by "Global Warming," that's a cert!


No i wont.

yals 0.5 degree change doesnt affect me :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
I believe this will be the are of best activity for North Carolina
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Soylent Green is a 1973 American science fiction film directed by Richard Fleischer and starring Charlton Heston, and in his final film, Edward G. Robinson. The film overlays the police procedural and science fiction genres as it depicts the investigation into the murder of a wealthy businessman in a dystopian future suffering from pollution, overpopulation, depleted resources, poverty, dying oceans, and a hot climate due to the greenhouse effect. Much of the population survives on processed food rations, including "soylent green".

In 2022, the population has grown to forty million people in New York City alone. Housing is dilapidated and overcrowded; homeless people fill the streets and line fire escapes and stairways. Food is scarce; most of the population survives on rations produced by the Soylent Corporation, whose newest product is Soylent Green, a small green wafer advertised to contain "high-energy plankton". It is more nutritious and palatable than the other varieties but is in short supply, which leads to food riots. Protagonist Robert Thorn is a New York City Police Department detective living with his aged friend Solomon "Sol" Roth, a former scholar who searches the remnants of written records to help Thorn's investigations.

Thorn investigates the murder of William R. Simonson, a director of the Soylent Corporation while helping himself to the latter's food, liquor, bathroom, and books. He questions Shirl, an attractive concubine (referred to as "furniture"), and Simonson's bodyguard, Tab Fielding, who claims to have escorted Shirl shopping when the attack took place.

Returning to his apartment, Thorn gives Roth the Soylent Oceanographic Survey Report, 2015 to 2019 taken from Simonson's apartment; then tells his Lieutenant (Hatcher) that he suspects an assassination on grounds that nothing was stolen from the apartment and the murder seemed professional, given that the apartment's sophisticated alarm and monitoring electronics failed to detect the murder and Fielding failed to prevent it.

After questioning Fielding's mistress, Martha, Thorn returns to his apartment. When he presents Roth with strawberry jam taken from Fielding's apartment, Roth declares it too great a luxury for the concubine of a bodyguard. Thorn returns to question Shirl again; whereupon she tells him that Simonson became troubled in the days before his death. Thorn questions a priest whom Simonson had visited but the priest at first fails to remember Simonson and is later unable to describe the latter's confession. Fielding later murders the priest to silence him, suspecting the priest of revealing Simonson's confession to Thorn. When Thorn begins discovering why Simonson was murdered, New York State's Governor Joseph Santini, once Simonson's partner in a high-profile law firm, orders the investigation closed; but Thorn disobeys. When Thorn is on riot duty at the distribution of rations, Simonson's murderer is dispatched by the Soylent Corporation to kill him but the murderer is crushed by a riot-control vehicle.

Roth examines Soylent's oceanographic reports; he and his fellows discover that the oceans are barren, no longer producing the plankton from which Soylent Green is said to be made. In fact it is made from people. Unable to live with this discovery, Roth seeks assisted suicide at a government clinic in Madison Square Garden. There, Roth tells Thorn the secret of Soylent Green and begs him to follow his body to the processing center and report to the other scholars.

Thorn does so and sees human corpses converted into Soylent Green. Returning to make his report, he is ambushed by Fielding and retreats into a cathedral filled with homeless people, where he kills Fielding.

When police arrive, Thorn urges Hatcher to spread the word that "Soylent Green is PEOPLE!"
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The thing to watch is the possible resurgence of the Sub Tropical jet next week as long range models are hinting as a big change to the pattern across the SE US.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting SPLbeater:
any1 here ever done something dangerous without thinking it over first?

Yes, I call that period of my life The 1970s. From what I've heard, it was kinda fun.
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Wow...

-Yesterday's balmy 26.1C was warm but...
It is now 27.0C in Timmins, Ontario as of 3:00pm EDT. That's 81F.
Both days obliterate the old March extreme temperature record of 19.9C set on the 15th, 1990.

-It is 25.8C in Val d'or, Quebec as of 3:00pm EDT. This destroys the March record of 17.6C set on the 14th, 1995.

-It is 26.1C(79F) as of 3:00 PM ADT in Kejimkujik National Park in Nova Scotia. The March extreme temperature record of 22.5C set on the 30th, 1986 is history. This also breaks the April extreme temperature record by 1.1C! (25.0C set on the 27th, 1990)

These are the most impressive but there are literally easily over 15 cities where the March High temperature record as been broken across Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes.
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From 70's to 80's across the Great Lakes to snow next week even down to the Ohio Valley. This will be a shock to the system for some.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting JNCali:
I work from home but we still take my high schooler to school which is 10 miles away.


Which makes you an excellent candidate for an electric car.

Let's assume you have a second household car that could be used for long trips or you take long trips infrequently and could use public transportation or rent a gasmobile.

If you live in California, for example, you could buy a Nissan Leaf, get the federal $7,500 and state $5,000 subsidies and own an EV for a very reasonable price.

12,000 miles a year in a 30MPG gasmobile burning $4/gallon gas = $1,600.

12,000 miles a year in a 0.35kWh/mile EV charging with $0.08/kWh electricity = $336.



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Quoting SPLbeater:


I reckon i should be thankful that i am not affected by pollen. Or poison Ivy. Or fire ants lol.

But you will be affected by "Global Warming," that's a cert!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting SPLbeater:


probably a feature that occurs normally this time of year


thnxs
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Quoting nigel20:

Some of the most deadly TC occur in the bay of bengal area

Like the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone for example
About 140,000 fatalities, 150 mph winds, widespread 20 foot surge, 1.7 billion dollars in damage, which may not sound like that much compared to other events but keep in mind Bangladesh is a small, poor country without a lot of valuable property.
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Quoting nigel20:

Some of the most deadly TC occur in the bay of bengal area


that storm had politics involved the government wouldnt provide aid to the disaster area, which is totally pathetic.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
128. wial 1:56 PM EDT on March 21, 2012

These are huge issues and I very concerned, as the Father of two children, as to what difficulties they may face (whether real-world or weather related) in the next several decades. Having Children changes your perspective on life; these issues might not affect me personally in the next 20 years in my current life of relative comfort but I can tell you, I am starting to look hard at my personal "footprint" and making changes in my life as an example for my kids..... Our next family car in the very near future is going to be electric or a hybrid regardless of what happens.
Valid thoughts and emotions.. The sooner you can eliminate the need for a car at all the better. I work from home but we still take my high schooler to school which is 10 miles away. Gas could double in price and that would make food and service prices double as well.. gotta be proactive with this stuff or your gonna be endanger of the dump truck...
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169. wxmod
It's too easy to focus on the near view. Here's the big picture. GoogleEarth with satellite data from right now.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
Quoting Patrap:
Cyclone Nargis

Cyclone Nargis (JTWC designation: 01B, also known as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis), was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Burma.

The cyclone made landfall in Burma on Friday, May 2, 2008, causing catastrophic destruction and at least 138,000 fatalities.

The Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead, with about 10,000 more deaths in Bogale.

There were around 55,000 people missing and many other deaths were found in other towns and areas, although the Burmese government's official death toll may have been underreported, and there have been allegations that government officials stopped updating the death toll after 138,000 to minimize political fallout. The feared 'second wave' of fatalities from disease and lack of relief efforts never materialized.[4] Damage was estimated at over US$10 billion, which made it the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in this basin.


Some of the most deadly TC occur in the bay of bengal area
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
ok so mark dat 2:55 I put Sampson Co. NC under a Special Weather Statement due to a strong thunderstorm in the souther portions. if i miss, 15 minutes is taken off my score:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting hurricaneeye:
Could someone please tell me what is a CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE FEATURE?

A MORE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...COULD SAY IT
HAS JUST BECOME A CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE FEATURE
...EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL COSTA RICA SW TO 05N91W TO NEAR 02N99W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SE
OF THE TROUGH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SW TONIGHT INTO THU.





probably a feature that occurs normally this time of year
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
from looking at the standard deviation map...and being well aware that man causes global warming, there must be a lot of humans in Michigan and not very many in the west half of the nation.
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Cyclone Nargis

Cyclone Nargis (JTWC designation: 01B, also known as Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis), was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the worst natural disaster in the recorded history of Burma.

The cyclone made landfall in Burma on Friday, May 2, 2008, causing catastrophic destruction and at least 138,000 fatalities.

The Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead, with about 10,000 more deaths in Bogale.

There were around 55,000 people missing and many other deaths were found in other towns and areas, although the Burmese government's official death toll may have been underreported, and there have been allegations that government officials stopped updating the death toll after 138,000 to minimize political fallout. The feared 'second wave' of fatalities from disease and lack of relief efforts never materialized.[4] Damage was estimated at over US$10 billion, which made it the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in this basin.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
February 2012 was the warmest February on record for Central Park NYC with a mean temperature of 40.9F (previous record was 40.6 observed in 2002, 1998, and 1984).
Link

Not including today, the mean temperature for Central Park is 50.9F for the month of March. 1945 had the warmest March in temperature record with a mean of 51.1F.

With plenty of warm weather in the forecast, Central Park will most likely experience the warmest March in the temperature record.

Having the historical warmest months back to back would be pretty amazing.

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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
Quoting PlazaRed:

I agree with you entirely on this one but I think your comment/statement may be in the wrong tense.
The facts about high and cold temps, over the last few years would if anybody counted them show that probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of people will have died from weather anomalies that are probably directly attributable to some aspect of climate change.
...


I think what he was saying is most of the movies showing weather events being the main cause of deaths in a disaster are unlikely. Yes a few events like dam failures can cause loss of life on an extreme scale, but events like heat waves with thousands of deaths are on the very small side of the scale on what is possible.

A much more likely event would be a heatwave/drought event compounded by government idioticy. The famine of 1921 is a blueprint for this type of event that lead to 5 million deaths.
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Quoting wxmod:


You're right. You are too optimistic. I posted satellite photos showing dust storms covering probably 20 percent of the people in the world (and 10 percent of the world's oceans!). You're very optimistic to think that making electric cars is going to fix anything. And people wanting "bang for their buck": nature doesn't care about that.



I don't see any valid arguments there but what I can ask you is why would people stick with dirty, more expensive sources of energy when solar will be significantly cheaper? Even if an electric car using solar energy of equal performance to a gas fuelled car is 5000$ more I'd still choose the electric car and I think most people would. Imagine when it'll be of a lower cost?

Quoting wxmod:
Northern Canada weather today.



Northern Canada? I hope that's a typo :P It's still in the -20's and -30's celsius all across the north with blizzards raging in a couple of places.
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108 Neapolitan "Perhaps there won't be many (any?) direct mass violent deaths ala silly movies such as 2012 and Day After Tomorrow, but droughts and floods and heat waves and those agricultural failures of which you spoke will certainly lead to deaths--and, in fact, may have done so already. And that's not even counting causalities of societal upheaval: wars, rioting, and the like."

Not may have done so already but rather has done so already, recently.
The ArabSpring uprising has far less to do with desire for "free expression" and "self-governance" than with the fact that food prices doubled-to-quadrupled over the previous two years due to bad harvests caused by unusually harsh weather which led to several normally-exporting countries to ban grain-exports altogether. Between increased demand on grain stocks grown/held by the still exporting nations and financial speculation/hoarding based on that increased demand, grain prices rose to record levels.

Unlike in the US and other FirstWorld countries -- where the cost of raw food is just a tiny fraction of retail food-prices -- those record high prices were passed on almost directly to the customer. With citizens facing a massively eroding standard of living*, all it took was a small spark to start the massive protest demonstrations (and wars in Libya and Syria) that kicked out long-standing governments.

* Food costs in developing nations and newly industrialized nations make up a far higher percentage of the cost of living for the average citizen than in the FirstWorld.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Levi32:
The U.S. is often not safe when the Atlantic is not at its prime. Some of its worst landfall seasons have occurred during "normal" activity years.

This particular fact is telling. The worst hurricane season for the United States ever in terms of total hurricane landfalls (6) occurred in 1985. There were 11 total named storms that season, and these were the average SST anomalies during its height:


Thank you for bringing this up, as I was doing a bit of research on this subject. I was noticing that the more "Active" seasons had less US landfalls on average than the "Average" seasons. I'm not stating this as fact, as I've not researched this in depth, more cherry picked so do note this is just an observation.
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Could someone please tell me what is a CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE FEATURE?

A MORE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...COULD SAY IT
HAS JUST BECOME A CLIMATOLOGICAL TYPE FEATURE
...EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL COSTA RICA SW TO 05N91W TO NEAR 02N99W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM SE
OF THE TROUGH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SW TONIGHT INTO THU.



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393.65ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for February 2012
Preliminary data released March 5, 2012






co2now.org
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
The principal ENSO models,CFS and ECMWF are crossing into El Nino threshold by June.



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
SPC 1623Z
-------------------------------------------------
...VA INTO NC REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAX OVER NRN VA MOVING SWD. COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT 500 MB/ ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN VA INTO NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS THINNING FROM SRN VA INTO PARTS OF NRN NC WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL. AS THE CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR PERSISTENT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. NEVERTHELESS...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 03/21/2012
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
128. wial 1:56 PM EDT on March 21, 2012

These are huge issues and I very concerned, as the Father of two children, as to what difficulties they may face (whether real-world or weather related) in the next several decades. Having Children changes your perspective on life; these issues might not affect me personally in the next 20 years in my current life of relative comfort but I can tell you, I am starting to look hard at my personal "footprint" and making changes in my life as an example for my kids..... Our next family car in the very near future is going to be electric or a hybrid regardless of what happens.
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Quoting wxmod:
Northern Canada weather today.



WOW!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Neapolitan:
Traverse City, Michigan, reached 87 degrees within the last hour, meaning this is the fifth consecutive day a new March high temperature record was set. Pellston, Michigan, has reached 85, also the fifth consecutive day with a new March high temperature record. (82 is 32 degrees above the day's previous high.)

Farther south, Fort Wayne, has reached 85. Today, then, is the 8th consecutive day that a record high has been set there, making it the longest streak of record high temps ever set there (The previous record was set in July of 1934).

There are very likely to be a few 90 or high readings in the area before the day is out.


Another interesting tidbit from northern Indiana... At South Bend, updated through today, the mean monthly temperature now sits at 53.0F. That is an incredible 5.6F warmer than the previous all-time record of 47.4F set in 1945! It's impressive to see a month that's 5.6F above normal -- you know that's a warm month. But to break the monthly record by 5.6F is insane.
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Quoting JNCali:
Sir Richard Branson.. Billionaire, Owns all the Virgin Brand stuff: Virgin Atlantic Airlines, Virgin Galactic (space travel for the common multimillionaire) etc.. He's always doing stunts to promote his new ventures..


ahh....

Quoting hydrus:
There were two blonde girls in the car driving to Niagara Falls. They see a large sign and it says Niagara Falls left. So the one blonde girls says "Oh no look, Niagara Falls left so now we can't go"


i cant laugh due to the fact that i have thcik blonde hair(and last time i went to The Wilds christian camp, a few girls followed me around when i wont lookin LOL)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Traverse City, Michigan, reached 87 degrees within the last hour, meaning this is the fifth consecutive day a new March high temperature record was set. Pellston, Michigan, has reached 85, also the fifth consecutive day with a new March high temperature record. (82 is 32 degrees above the day's previous high.)

Farther south, Fort Wayne, has reached 85. Today, then, is the 8th consecutive day that a record high has been set there, making it the longest streak of record high temps ever set there (The previous record was set in July of 1934).

There are very likely to be a few 90 or high readings in the area before the day is out.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


i dont recognize
Sir Richard Branson.. Billionaire, Owns all the Virgin Brand stuff: Virgin Atlantic Airlines, Virgin Galactic (space travel for the common multimillionaire) etc.. He's always doing stunts to promote his new ventures..
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Quoting presslord:


one of the Apostles
There were two blonde girls in the car driving to Niagara Falls. They see a large sign and it says Niagara Falls left. So the one blonde girls says "Oh no look, Niagara Falls left so now we can't go"
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20904
.
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145. wxmod
Northern Canada weather today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
Due to the fact that VIL decreased in the latest from on that cell just north of Jacksonville NC from 40 to 25 kg/m^2, i will not issue a warning on it. next frame will tell the tale. NWS has that county under Special Weather Statement, but no warning. I agree.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting JNCali:


He's the owner of Virgin atlantic and virgin mobile?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
I can see the cloud line 50 miles away to my west, taking it's time clearing out
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Quoting JNCali:



i dont recognize
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting JNCali:
We just have to find that girl with the tattoo on her back!


Rumor has it that she will be on the Exxon Valdez.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Perhaps there won't be many (any?) direct mass violent deaths ala silly movies such as 2012 and Day After Tomorrow, but droughts and floods and heat waves and those agricultural failures of which you spoke will certainly lead to deaths--and, in fact, may have done so already. And that's not even counting causalities of societal upheaval: wars, rioting, and the like.

I agree with you entirely on this one but I think your comment/statement may be in the wrong tense.
The facts about high and cold temps, over the last few years would if anybody counted them show that probably tens if not hundreds of thousands of people will have died from weather anomalies that are probably directly attributable to some aspect of climate change.
As you say weather/ climate related deaths may have occurred already but its a hell of a task to prove this!
2004 in Europe, especially France had many thousands through heat, as did 2010 in Russia. Drought will be rearing its ugly head soon in Europe, I am sure this year and that at the very least will hit the animal population, as plant growth is allready badly stunted.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Kevin Costner may be the key to our survival, in the future? ...Twice.
We just have to find that girl with the tattoo on her back!
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Quoting SPLbeater:


who is dat?

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Quoting hydrus:
Hope your ready. It does look rather severe.

Is the warmer GOM causing an increase in moisture that is fueling this system?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
Quoting SPLbeater:


who is dat?


one of the Apostles
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10480

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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