Torrential rains in Oklahoma; Summer in March continues for Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on March 20, 2012

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A significant flood event is underway in Eastern Oklahoma, where widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen since yesterday. Up to four more inches of rain is likely today, and the National Weather Service in Tulsa is warning of the potential for "widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding" should some of the higher rainfall amounts being forecast materialize. Numerous main-stem rivers across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are now approaching flood stage, and will likely experience moderate to major flooding into Wednesday. Rainfall has also been heavy over Eastern Texas, with widespread amounts of 2 - 4 inches. These heavy rains are causing some street flooding, but in general, will be a benefit, as moderate to severe drought conditions still cover most of the region.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for Eastern Oklahoma since March 19, 2012, as estimated by the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar.

The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that is colliding with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front early this week had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front is lifting huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing torrential rains to fall. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Slight Risk of severe weather over East Texas, Western Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of East Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Three tornadoes were reported yesterday in Texas, and eleven touched down the previous day in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The tornado that hit North Platte, Nebraska two days ago was rated a strong EF-3, and injured four people.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 2-day period Tuesday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 3+ inches (orange colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.

Summer in March continues for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest will continue to set all-time heat records through Thursday, gradually shifting its peak intensity eastwards during the week. A few highlights from yesterday's records:

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past three days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 82°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 82° reading broke the previous record for the date (56° in 1976) by an amazing 26°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 83°F yesterday, the third consecutive day the city has experienced its hottest March temperature on record.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 78°F yesterday, 42° above average, and the 2nd hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. The record of 79°F was set the previous day. Remarkably, the low temperature for International Falls bottomed out at 60°F yesterday, tying the previous record high for the date. I've never seen a station with a century-long data record have its low temperature for the date match the previous record high for the date. Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day that International Falls broke or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba has broken its record high for the past five days in a row, and hit 24°C (75.2°F) yesterday, its hottest March temperature on record. Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario are near 26°C, which will threaten the records for hottest March day in history for Windsor, London, Hamilton, and Toronto.


Figure 3. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. will break off and form a giant eddy on Wednesday. The resulting area of low pressure will be known as a "cut-off low", because it will be cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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MSNBC on news so far about the Magnitude7.4 Earthquake between Acapulco and Oaxaca
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-And one more: Pellston, Michigan, reached at least 83 today, breaking the previous high temperature record for the day by 28 degrees.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Whatever dryness was there, is gone, period<


If you're near that mark on the radar, you're near me. I posted that graphic earlier as I'm in denton.
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Chicago now 85.
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Quoting SteveDa1:


Speechless....

Same story up here...

Its 24C in Timmins, Ontario and the city has now broken its March high temperature record for the third time in 3 days. It's very possible that it gets broken again tomorrow.

In Geraldton, Ontario four of the past 5 days (including today) have broken the old March high temperature record.

Its 26.6C in Windsor, Ontario which ties the record for March. Temperatures have been above 20C for the past 7 days if you include today (8 days if you include a 19.4C reading). Not bad for a city that averages just 1 day over 20C in March.

In Montreal, Quebec it is day 3 in a row of temperatures above 20C which breaks the record of 2 days set in 1945 and tied in 1946. 2 more days of over 20C are forecast and tomorrow could break the March high temperature record.

The list goes on and on...
Midway is the official Chicago station of record, and it's at 84. meanwhile, O'Hare is at 85.

85.

Anyway, just saw this on the Chicago NWS site:

"If the 80 forecast [for tomorrow] verifies, Chicago's average temperature for the first 21 days of March would be 53.4. Not only would this shatter the record for the warmest march ever, it would be tie the temperature for the 7th warmest April ever in Chicago.
Quoting HallsCrossRdsTNWx:


Knoxville, TN has reached 83 so far today tying a previous record of 83. Day isn't over yet.
Knoxville is now at 85, believe it or not.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow, that's a lot of rain.




Hey man read my post, that estimate is way off...


Rain gauges do not support that much rain. Top rain amounts from gauges are in the 6 to 7 inch range, which is still A LOT of rain, but not 10 to 15 like the radar "thinks".


BTW, looks like I was right about actual rain totals not living up to the huge 6 to 9 inch widespread bulls eye of rain the HPC had for the region the other night. Widespread amounts ended up being 2 to 4 with isolated 5 to to 6, and maybe a bit more in a few local areas.

That's still a crazy of rain, but I knew it wasn't going to be quite as extreme as predicted...
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These deep easterly winds have been bailing us out lately. Looks as if some good rain maybe moving into C FL over the next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT (COAST) INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

WED...POTENTIAL WET START TO EARLY PART OF THE DAY AS MODELS SUGGEST
SURGE OF MOISTURE (PWAT`S ~ 1.40-1.50 INCHES) IN THE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT WITH GREATER CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS DURING THE
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SO WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE DAY
AS RAINFALL INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IN STORE AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGE 15 TO 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME
SPORADIC MIDDLE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

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Looks like more rain developing out in West Texas. Will be interesting to see if that branches off like this last line and heads towards SE Texas/Louisiana since the Low has not moved at all.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
--It's now a ridiculous 84 degrees in Traverse City, Michigan, the third time in four days a new March monthly record has been set.

--Pelliston, Michigan, is at 82 now, making this the fourth consecutive day a new March monthly record has been set (Saturday's high: 80; Sunday: 81; Monday: 82)

--Chicago has hit 83, a new March monthly record. Today is also the sixth day this month there with a temperature at or above 80 degrees. Since 1871, only 16 March days in Chicago have reached 80; six of those have occurred in the past week.

--International Falls has reached 61 already, tieing the record for the date. That means 10 of this month's 20 days have reached a record high.


Speechless....

Same story up here...

Its 24C in Timmins, Ontario and the city has now broken its March high temperature record for the third time in 3 days. It's very possible that it gets broken again tomorrow.

In Geraldton, Ontario four of the past 5 days (including today) have broken the old March high temperature record.

Its 26.6C in Windsor, Ontario which ties the record for March. Temperatures have been above 20C for the past 7 days if you include today (8 days if you include a 19.4C reading). Not bad for a city that averages just 1 day over 20C in March.

In Montreal, Quebec it is day 3 in a row of temperatures above 20C which breaks the record of 2 days set in 1945 and tied in 1946. 2 more days of over 20C are forecast and tomorrow could break the March high temperature record.

The list goes on and on...
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Wow, that's a lot of rain.

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Quoting wxmod:
Realtime images of India, Middle East, Central Africa and West Africa coast. MODIS today

Dust, dust ... and more dust.
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SAL
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7765
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Downgraded to 7.4.

Link
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Jedkins is correct. Dallas had 4.04"

Waco had 6.17"

That's very good but far from a foot.


Quoting Jedkins01:



Be warned that the radar estimates are way off, Waco had around 5 to 6.5 inches of rain which is a very large amount but the radar says they had 12-15, not even close.

Like I've said before, after frequently scrutinizing radar estimates frequently Ive found that they are often off by a substantial amount and sometimes way off. Not to say they estimates are always wrong but it seems they are wrong more often then not, either way over estimated or way underestimated.


Hopefully the dual-pole upgrade will help take care of that issue.


Although I noticed that local channel rain estimates are often that much worse than NWS radar. I can remember many times watching the local weather and it would bug me when a less experienced person would only show estimates over the Tampa Bay area instead of actual totals because for whatever reason radar seems to very frequently undershoot rainfall amounts here.

It would be something ridiculous like "Tampa and Clearwater area got a around an inch" while in reality actual rain gauges recorded a bit above 3 inches.
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Here is the scientific forecast discussion for the Aspen Area today:
"The upper trough was moving off to our east and was in the early
stages of pinching off an upper low in the trough base."

I don't know...sounds painful
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Whatever dryness was there, is gone, period


That's quite a bit of accumulation over the Dallas/Forth Worth area
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7765
Chicago had a low of 64 this morning (beating their record for the warmest low of the day by 11 degrees and also the warmest so early)

Chicago is now 84.

Their warmest daily average in July is 64/85.


Chicago will probably get to 85 or warmer. If it gets to 86 it will be a hotter day than July's averages ever reach!
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79 aerojad "Mexican President Felipe Calderon says no serious damage reported from 7.6-magnitude earthquake - @Reuters"
90 drought "I hope there really isn't serious damage! Hard to believe for a shallow 7.6 quake."

As shown in comment68, 4miles(6.4kilometres) northwest of San Juan Cacahuatepec. I suspect that Calderon is misinformed. Hard to believe that (what appears to be) cinderblock or adobe buildings...

... stood up well against such a nearby magnitude7.6 quake

100 MontanaZephyr "Apparently, that South Mexico earthquake got downgraded muchamente: Now a 5.1"

Nope. That's a second quake, an aftershock epicentered at 16.527n98.100w, 7miles(11kilometres) southsoutheast of San Juan Cacahuatepec.
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Quoting TxKeef:


Got some decent rains around where I live in Denton, TX.



Be warned that the radar estimates are way off, Waco had around 5 to 6.5 inches of rain which is a very large amount but the radar says they had 12-15, not even close.

Like I've said before, after frequently scrutinizing radar estimates frequently Ive found that they are often off by a substantial amount and sometimes way off. Not to say they estimates are always wrong but it seems they are wrong more often then not, either overestimated or underestimated.


Hopefully the dual-pole upgrade will help take care of that issue.


Although I noticed that local channel rain estimates are often that much worse than NWS radar. I can remember many times watching the local weather and it would bug me when a less experienced person would only show estimates over the Tampa Bay area instead of actual totals because for whatever reason radar seems to very frequently undershoot rainfall amounts here.

It would be something ridiculous like "Tampa and Clearwater area got a around an inch" while in reality actual rain gauges recorded a bit above 3 inches.



I'm wondering if it has to do with each radar site, like I noticed that each radar site in Florida will show sometimes a lot different totals for the same areas, it seems like some radar sites do better while others undershoot or overshoot for whatever reason.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
--It's now a ridiculous 84 degrees in Traverse City, Michigan, the third time in four days a new March monthly record has been set.

--Pelliston, Michigan, is at 82 now, making this the fourth consecutive day a new March monthly record has been set (Saturday's high: 80; Sunday: 81; Monday: 82)

--Chicago has hit 83, a new March monthly record. Today is also the sixth day this month there with a temperature at or above 80 degrees. Since 1871, only 16 March days in Chicago have reached 80; six of those have occurred in the past week.

--International Falls has reached 61 already, tieing the record for the date. That means 10 of this month's 20 days have reached a record high.


Knoxville, TN has reached 83 so far today tying a previous record of 83. Day isn't over yet.
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Quoting drought:


Good catch I see that too.


And the depth has been increased to 20. Better for the people.
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Quoting barbamz:
MAP 7.4 2012/03/20 18:02:49 16.662 -98.188 20.0 OAXACA, MEXICO
Was a bit downgraded by USGS.


Good catch I see that too.
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MAP 7.4 2012/03/20 18:02:49 16.662 -98.188 20.0 OAXACA, MEXICO
Was a bit downgraded by USGS.
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We need the handle "flood" to post. The handle is taken so where are you? :)

Quoting RitaEvac:
Whatever dryness was there, is gone, period

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Mexico Quake



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Grothar. I will also say that much to my shame I failed and did terrible in maths during my entire educational career. As my life took me further and further into work and family anything but the basics didn't seem important. Until recently when I was reminded just how important it is to understand the numbers behind the arguments about the state of our world. My mathematical illiteracy is something I sharply regret and am trying to fix now that I am older. ( PSA to the youngsters. Study!)

Trying to "understand numbers" is, oddly enough, one of the reasons I've gotten into weather. Er. Yes. Anyways.
/goes back to lurking and not enjoying the record breaking heat wave and pollen count.
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Whatever dryness was there, is gone, period

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Mexico City was rocked but in a less strong way than where the epicenter was near the Pacific Coast East of Acapulco.And that caused people to go out from the office buildings and stay in the streets.





I'm happy there are no reports of serious damages
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Subject on the eruptions blog:
Volcanoes and Hurricanes: Mortal Enemies, Best Friends?
By Erik Klemetti March 20, 2012
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Apparently, that South Mexico earthquake got downgraded muchamente: Now a 5.1:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/


I think that 5.1 was an aftershock. The 7.6 quake is now more than one hour old.

Link.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


evenin nigel

I see we are talking about earthquakes.....
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Mexico City was rocked but in a less strong way than where the epicenter was near the Pacific Coast East of Acapulco.And that caused people to go out from the office buildings and stay in the streets.




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Quoting drought:


I hope there really isn't serious damage! Hard to believe for a shallow 7.6 quake.

That would be very good
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Quoting Grothar:


If you had accounted for the leap year with an extra day, deducted 3 days for the M7.1 solar flare followed by an X1.2 your prediction would have been perfect. You have to extrapolate the timing between the flares from the length of timing of the solar wind hitting earth.
Congratulations on a job well done. Here, try this next time.

A(cos(na) N) A sin(na)
h(a) = -------------------- g(a) = -------------------- (2)
1 N^2 2N cos(na) 1 N^2 2N cos(na)






Eh. Not my prediction. Even if there is an axis shifting quake on the 22nd I'm skeptical as to what it would really show. I am skeptical and curious if there are "meaningful" relationships between sets of earthquakes. Like the way there are meaningful relationships if we look at weather phenomena, cliff collapses, or ocean currents.

I do however think that there's more "curio" than "meaning" in the 322 stuff. There are hundreds of 6.0 and 7.0 quakes as well as many older massive quakes that undoubtedly shifted earth's axis. There are groups of quakes that do not fit any pattern or that form their own sub sets. If we stare at something long enough countless patterns will emerge. But can the set point to a usable relationship or is it just interesting anomalous data?
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Apparently, that South Mexico earthquake got downgraded muchamente: Now a 5.1:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:



The eastern caribbean is long overdue for a big quake. IMO
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7765
There's this too.

Study: 5 million face increased flooding risk


Quoting BobWallace:


Several years ago climate scientists started telling us that a warming climate would likely mean more periods of drought and more periods of very heavy precipitation (all that extra water evaporated into the atmosphere).

Joe Romm wrote a book called "Hell and High Water" in 2006.

Perhaps the only thing that we should be surprised about is how soon and how intensely those predictions seem to be making us a visit.

Can we use past weather patterns to predict tomorrow's weather? The overall system has changed and that makes yesterday's observations less valuable.

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Quoting drought:


I hope not! Hard to believe for a shallow 7.6 quake.
as i understand it that just for mexico city
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Quoting aspectre:

Happle that there will be some improvement in the drought in Texas
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7765
Quoting BobWallace:


Several years ago climate scientists started telling us that a warming climate would likely mean more periods of drought and more periods of very heavy precipitation (all that extra water evaporated into the atmosphere).

Joe Romm wrote a book called "Hell and High Water" in 2006.

Perhaps the only thing that we should be surprised about is how soon and how intensely those predictions seem to be making us a visit.

Can we use past weather patterns to predict tomorrow's weather? The overall system has changed and that makes yesterday's observations less valuable.



Generally true for all systems: When there are substantial changes in the mean and/or variations of the inputs, unforseeable and radical changes are to be expected in the dynamics that connect the subsystems, and similarly radical changes can be expected in the operation of the whole.
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Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon guys


evenin nigel
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Quoting drought:
Atlanta has just reached 80, breaking our record for the most consecutive days of 80+ degrees in March.


That's simply unbelievable
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That's a big boy ...

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Remember the guy who said something about large earthquakes every 188 days? This is day 187!!!

DOOM!!!
well we got another 188 days to find out maybe but i think there will be one more over the next 24 hrs or so iam looking for an 8.1
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Quoting aerojad:
"Mexican President Felipe Calderon says no serious damage reported from 7.6-magnitude earthquake - @Reuters"


I hope there really isn't serious damage! Hard to believe for a shallow 7.6 quake.
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Good afternoon guys
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Was a state wide thing geek.


Ah, so it was. Either way, I told everyone that in the event of a real tornado, I would be calling the NWS to report it and then going outside to videotape it on my phone!!
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Quoting Chicklit:


6.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 17:56:19 UTC
Wednesday, March 21, 2012 at 02:56:19 AM at epicenter
Location
3.830°S, 140.220°E
Depth
66.9 km (41.6 miles)
Region

7.6 OAXACA, MEXICO
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 18:02:48 UTC
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 12:02:48 PM at epicenter
Location
16.662°N, 98.188°W
Depth
17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region



Remember the guy who said something about large earthquakes every 188 days? This is day 187!!!

DOOM!!!
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Scientists detect seismic signals from tornado
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientists_dete ct_seismic_signals_from_tornado_999.html



WEATHER REPORT
Scientists detect seismic signals from tornado
by Staff Writers
Bloomington IN (SPX) Mar 16, 2012

While seismographs have been known to detect seismic activity related to tornadoes, it is highly unusual to have state-of-the-art digital instruments recording information in such close proximity to a tornado, the researchers say.

An Indiana University geophysical experiment detected unusual seismic signals associated with tornadoes that struck regions across the Midwest last week - information that may have value for meteorologists studying the atmospheric activity that precedes tornado disasters.


(truncated for copyright)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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