Torrential rains in Oklahoma; Summer in March continues for Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on March 20, 2012

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A significant flood event is underway in Eastern Oklahoma, where widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen since yesterday. Up to four more inches of rain is likely today, and the National Weather Service in Tulsa is warning of the potential for "widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding" should some of the higher rainfall amounts being forecast materialize. Numerous main-stem rivers across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are now approaching flood stage, and will likely experience moderate to major flooding into Wednesday. Rainfall has also been heavy over Eastern Texas, with widespread amounts of 2 - 4 inches. These heavy rains are causing some street flooding, but in general, will be a benefit, as moderate to severe drought conditions still cover most of the region.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for Eastern Oklahoma since March 19, 2012, as estimated by the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar.

The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that is colliding with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front early this week had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front is lifting huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing torrential rains to fall. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Slight Risk of severe weather over East Texas, Western Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of East Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Three tornadoes were reported yesterday in Texas, and eleven touched down the previous day in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The tornado that hit North Platte, Nebraska two days ago was rated a strong EF-3, and injured four people.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 2-day period Tuesday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 3+ inches (orange colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.

Summer in March continues for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest will continue to set all-time heat records through Thursday, gradually shifting its peak intensity eastwards during the week. A few highlights from yesterday's records:

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past three days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 82°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 82° reading broke the previous record for the date (56° in 1976) by an amazing 26°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 83°F yesterday, the third consecutive day the city has experienced its hottest March temperature on record.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 78°F yesterday, 42° above average, and the 2nd hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. The record of 79°F was set the previous day. Remarkably, the low temperature for International Falls bottomed out at 60°F yesterday, tying the previous record high for the date. I've never seen a station with a century-long data record have its low temperature for the date match the previous record high for the date. Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day that International Falls broke or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba has broken its record high for the past five days in a row, and hit 24°C (75.2°F) yesterday, its hottest March temperature on record. Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario are near 26°C, which will threaten the records for hottest March day in history for Windsor, London, Hamilton, and Toronto.


Figure 3. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. will break off and form a giant eddy on Wednesday. The resulting area of low pressure will be known as a "cut-off low", because it will be cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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286. BobWallace
12:46 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The plot continues to thicken in Clintonville, Wisconsin, tonight, as the bizarre underground noises heard for the last several nights there have been confirmed by hundreds. Officials have ruled out an earthquake, problems with the city's water or sewage systems, gas explosions, mining or blasting activities, landfills, dams, industrial activity, and military opertations, according to a statement released this afternoon:

huh?

More here.

So, whattaya think? A side effect of rapid thawing? Mass delusion? A blob of magma working its way to the surface? A community of blind and mole-like subterranean trolls toiling the night away?


Local Republican heads exploding as they consider their 2012 options....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
285. aislinnpaps
12:46 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
LOL, yes, I did ask for it. *G* But now I need a pirogue!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
284. BobWallace
12:44 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Very interesting article. So they can send a nuclear missile millions of miles into space, hit a small rock moving at thousands of miles per hour. Hmmm. I just want to know one thing. How come they can't find my luggage at the airport.


Probably because you use one of those black drag-alongs like everyone else and it confuses them....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
283. Minnemike
12:44 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:


Larry had put sourcing info on his chart. It was stripped off by someone when it was presented to the British Parliament.

There's no "embellishments" included in this chart. It simply plots the PIOMAS data and fits a mathematical curve to the data, the function that best fits the data, and let's the curve make a "If things continue like they have been going" prediction.

Here's another version with various functions plotted and Rsq values to indicate which best fits the data.

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01 67640643fc970b-pi
that's what creeps me out about it.. sourcing is the Only issue with it, not the data :(
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
282. nigel20
12:42 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
281. nigel20
12:41 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Okay, I need everyone to line up along the Texas border of Louisiana and blow this dang storm along its way. It's been about six hours of almost continual thunderstorms with pouring rain. They are saying 10+ inches possible.

We have enough rain now, Mother Nature, thank you, you can move on along now.

You asked for rain now you getting
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
280. BobWallace
12:39 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a great graph, and it is, indeed scary. But, FYI, it's not from UW or PIOMAS, but from the private ArtischePinguin website. (In fact, there was a little talk on the Sea Ice Blog today about the BBC using it without noting it was, indeed, from a blog, and not from research papers or scientific presentations. As Neven put it, "The situation in the Arctic is serious enough as it is, and so there is absolutely no need for 'embellishments' that could eventually backfire and be used by people and organisations who still have an urgent need to deny the existence or potential seriousness of Anthropogenic Global Warming." The creator of the graph has promised to put clear sourcing information on the bottom of his graphs.)


Larry had put sourcing info on his chart. It was stripped off by someone when it was presented to the British Parliament.

There's no "embellishments" included in this chart. It simply plots the PIOMAS data and fits a mathematical curve to the data, the function that best fits the data, and let's the curve make a "If things continue like they have been going" prediction.

Here's another version with various functions plotted and Rsq values to indicate which best fits the data.

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01 67640643fc970b-pi
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
279. SPLbeater
12:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Cell west of Greensboro NC might have some hail. Might need a warning if VIL increases just a bit past 40 kg/m^2
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
278. Neapolitan
12:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
The plot continues to thicken in Clintonville, Wisconsin, tonight, as the bizarre underground noises heard for the last several nights there have been confirmed by hundreds. Officials have ruled out an earthquake, problems with the city's water or sewage systems, gas explosions, mining or blasting activities, landfills, dams, industrial activity, and military opertations, according to a statement released this afternoon:

huh?

More here.

So, whattaya think? A side effect of rapid thawing? Mass delusion? A blob of magma working its way to the surface? A community of blind and mole-like subterranean trolls toiling the night away?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
277. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:31 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Okay, I need everyone to line up along the Texas border of Louisiana and blow this dang storm along its way. It's been about six hours of almost continual thunderstorms with pouring rain. They are saying 10 inches possible.

We have enough rain now, Mother Nature, thank you, you can move on along now.

Sorry, but you cannot get rid of it that easily.

Heavy rainfall is expected until Wednesday night at the earliest.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
276. Birthmark
12:30 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Another thought on the earthquake pattern.. doesn't that have something to do with Spring & Fall Equinox?


Check out this yearly minimum Ice Graph from University of Washington.


Um, about that graph...
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
275. aislinnpaps
12:25 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Okay, I need everyone to line up along the Texas border of Louisiana and blow this dang storm along its way. It's been about six hours of almost continual thunderstorms with pouring rain. They are saying 10+ inches possible.

We have enough rain now, Mother Nature, thank you, you can move on along now.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3143
274. nigel20
12:18 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
March came in like a lion, will be exiting like a lion, and it looks like another lion will be coming in for the month of April.




Could be really bad if the forecast pans out
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
273. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:15 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
March came in like a lion, will likely be exiting like a lion.

April doesn't look too much different according to the long-range GFS run.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32259
272. Levi32
12:01 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
You shift the Earth's axis of rotation by jumping up and down (if you're not standing on a pole), and the Earth falls towards you at the same time that you are falling towards it. Everything affects everything, but very few effects are actually large enough to measure.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
271. nigel20
11:56 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
3/20/2012 -- Mexico Earthquake RAW video


The last two 9.0 or greater earthquakes occurred on the western section of the "Ring of Fire".......do you think the trend will continue?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
270. Grothar
11:56 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
Scientists study the use of nuclear bombs to avert asteroid doomsday Posted on March 20, 2012

March 20, 2012 – SPACE –A well-placed nuclear explosion could actually save humanity from a big asteroid hurtling toward Earth, just like in the movies, a new study suggests. Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory, a United States Department of Energy facility in New Mexico, used a supercomputer to model nukes’ anti-asteroid effectiveness. They attacked a 1,650-foot-long (500-meter) space rock with a 1-megaton nuclear weapon — about 50 times more powerful than the U.S. blast inflicted on Nagasaki, Japan, to help end World War II. The results were encouraging. “Ultimately this 1-megaton blast will disrupt all of the rocks in the rockpile of this asteroid, and if this were an Earth-crossing asteroid, would fully mitigate the hazard represented by the initial asteroid itself,” Los Alamos scientist Bob Weaver said in a recent video released by the lab. In the 3-D modeling study, run on 32,000 processors of the Cielo supercomputer, the blast went off at the asteroid’s surface. So the nuke likely wouldn’t have to be deposited deep into a threatening space rock, a dangerous job Bruce Willis and his astronaut crew tackled in the 1998 film “Armageddon.” Weaver stressed that nuclear bombs would likely be deployed only as a last resort, if an impact loomed just months away. And other researchers caution that a nuclear blast might have negative side effects, such as sending a hail of many small space rocks toward Earth instead of a single big one. If humanity had more notice of an impending impact, there are several other asteroid defense strategies we might be able to employ, scientists have said. Discussions about asteroid deflection aren’t just academic exercises. Huge impacts are a part of our planet’s history; one wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, and it’s just a matter of time before another big space rock lines Earth up in its sights, astronomers say. –Space.com



Very interesting article. So they can send a nuclear missile millions of miles into space, hit a small rock moving at thousands of miles per hour. Hmmm. I just want to know one thing. How come they can't find my luggage at the airport.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26472
269. wxmod
11:55 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:


Is America preparing for an unprecedented crisis reminiscent of WWII?
Posted on March 19, 2012
March 19, 2012 – WASHINGTON – The following excerpt is from an Executive Order signed by U.S. President Obama on March 16, 2012. The Executive Order coordinates and mobilizes all national resources, technological and industrial, under Federal auspicies in the event of a national emergency. This sounds like a major preparatory step before a crisis eerily reminiscent of WWII.......

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/0 3/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-pr eparedness



Here's a link:
executive-order-national-defense-resources-prepar edness
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
268. Neapolitan
11:54 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Another thought on the earthquake pattern.. doesn't that have something to do with Spring & Fall Equinox?


Check out this yearly minimum Ice Graph from University of Washington.
That's a great graph, and it is, indeed scary. But, FYI, it's not from UW or PIOMAS, but from the private ArtischePinguin website. (In fact, there was a little talk on the Sea Ice Blog today about the BBC using it without noting it was, indeed, from a blog, and not from research papers or scientific presentations. As Neven put it, "The situation in the Arctic is serious enough as it is, and so there is absolutely no need for 'embellishments' that could eventually backfire and be used by people and organisations who still have an urgent need to deny the existence or potential seriousness of Anthropogenic Global Warming." The creator of the graph has promised to put clear sourcing information on the bottom of his graphs.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
267. Barefootontherocks
11:46 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Study Reveals Disturbing Human Behavior During Tornadoes

Last May's tornado in Joplin, Missouri was one of the most devastating in U-S history. It killed 159 people and injured more than 1,000. In a study, the National Weather Service discovered something very disturbing about how people react to tornado warnings. It's behavior that could prove deadly here as well.

Posted: 6:00 PM Mar 19, 2012
Reporter: John Stofflet
Email Address: jstofflet@nbc15.com

Posted Monday, March 19, 2012--6:00 p.m.

A National Weather Service study shows most people in Joplin, Missouri did not take shelter immediately when they found out a tornado was headed toward them. That tornado last May killed 159 people and injured more than 1,000.

It's something Wisconsin Emergency Management officials are concerned could also prove deadly here this tornado season...

This interesting issue you bring up was the subject of more than one presentation at the National Severe Wearther Workshop earlier this month. In case anyone's interested, here's a link to the "NWS study" mentioned in the article.
The NWS Central Region Service Assessment for the May 22, 2011 Joplin tornado. (pdf file).
Quoting dogsgomoo:
I agree with you on this so much. In our area the sirens sound when there is a Thunderstorm Warning with a regional/county Tornado Watch OR when there is a Tornado Warning OR when there has been a Tornado spotted (OR there is a 'national security event' OR the aliens have landed). It's the same siren (duration/sound etc.) It's a big county so what do people do? They tend to ignore the sirens. I know my family and friends do. I'm usually already online and well aware of what's going on but the way the sirens are being used doesn't seem logical.

This is one reason cited for not heeding warnings right away. It is valid and consistent with human nature. Been working on a blog that includes this stuff, so I'll save the rest of my opinions on it for later.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18722
266. nrtiwlnvragn
11:43 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
NORTH CENTRAL LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CLEBURNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SYLVANIA...OR 9 MILES
EAST OF CABOT. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WARD.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THESE SEVERE STORMS MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WARD... THURMAN... SYLVANIA...
ROSE BUD... OLD AUSTIN... MCRAE...
GRAVEL HILL... CROSBY... BEEBE...
AUSTIN... WOODLAWN... SIDON...
ROMANCE... LETONA... JOY...
GARNER... FLOYD... FAIRVIEW...
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
265. nigel20
11:42 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The CFSv2 model crosses the El Nino threshold of +0.5C by August,September and October,but it stays at weak El Nino and not go to moderate status.


It's a possibility
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
264. Patrap
11:42 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
3/20/2012 -- Mexico Earthquake RAW video

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
263. wxmod
11:39 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:



Tropics are headin for Greenland.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
262. Tropicsweatherpr
11:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
The CFSv2 model crosses the El Nino threshold of +0.5C by August,September and October,but it stays at weak El Nino and not go to moderate status.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14314
261. BobWallace
11:32 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Sirens become an entirely different issue. Technically they are meant as an outdoor warning and are not typically designed to be heard indoors. From that angle, it would make sense that for very large hail and very strong winds, sounding the sirens might be appropriate to give people a heads up to seek sturdy shelter. But if they are sounded for every severe/tornado warning with our current false alarm rate... I'd suspect siren fatigue will likely preclude their usefullness for most people.


Perhaps sirens ought to be presented in a different light.

"Hear a siren?"

"That's like being told that someone has loaded one chamber of a six-gun, spun the cylinder, pointed it at your head, and is pulling the trigger."

"Now you've got to ask yourself on question:"

"Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?"
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
260. sunlinepr
11:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
British government organizes national threat registery with ‘assualts from nature’
Posted on March 19, 2012
March 19, 2012 – LONDON — Britain has added volcanoes and solar storms to floods, flu and terrorism on a list of threats to national security. The highest-priority risks to Britain are pandemic influenza, coastal flooding, terrorist attacks and – a new addition – volcanic eruptions in countries like Iceland, according to the recently published 2012 edition of the government’s National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies...........

http://m.ctv.ca/topstories/20120318/britain-volca noes-solar-storms-20120318.html

Is America preparing for an unprecedented crisis reminiscent of WWII?
Posted on March 19, 2012
March 19, 2012 – WASHINGTON – The following excerpt is from an Executive Order signed by U.S. President Obama on March 16, 2012. The Executive Order coordinates and mobilizes all national resources, technological and industrial, under Federal auspicies in the event of a national emergency. This sounds like a major preparatory step before a crisis eerily reminiscent of WWII.......

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/0 3/16/executive-order-national-defense-resources-pr eparedness

Russian military unit arrives in Syria – UN calls move a ‘bomb’ for the region
Posted on March 19, 2012
March 19, 2012 – SYRIA – A Russian military unit has arrived in Syria, according to Russian news reports, a development that a United Nations Security Council source told ABC News was “a bomb” certain to have serious repercussions.......

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/russian-anti-terror -troops-arrive-syria/story?id=15954363#.T2efd46Uzh G
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
259. nrtiwlnvragn
11:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDWAY 36.38N 92.47W
03/20/2012 BAXTER AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO TO THREE MOBILE HOMES COLLAPASED WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED
INSIDE. NO REPORTS OF INJURIES AT THIS TIME.

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11211
258. Patrap
11:30 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Binocular Cam mpeg of Low and Slow F-18 from NAS Belle Chase over the Miss River Uptown NOLA, gear down, under low deck, High Winds.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
257. BobWallace
11:25 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
This article has the scary sea ice graph too... An eminent UK engineer is suggesting building cloud-whitening towers in the Faroe Islands as a "technical fix" for warming across the Arctic...instead of the going with the idea of cloud-whitening from ships.


This is going to be a most interesting Arctic sea ice melt season. There was considerable earlier freeze season accumulation on the Pacific Ocean side of the Arctic. A lot of this year's measured extent/area is outside the 'protected' area of the Arctic basin. Normally that ice melts out by mid-May.

The Atlantic Ocean side remained unusually unfrozen except for some ice formation during the last couple of weeks. That ice will not have had enough time to thicken and is likely to get transported out the Fram Straight with the first good wind and/or melted in place.

The Central Basin itself, the oldest 'most permanent' ice is already showing loss for the year. The ice block that normally keeps the CB ice from getting shoved out into warm Atlantic waters is missing. There could be an incredible flushing of multi-year ice.

It's likely we'll see the North Pole, that central circle, without ice this year.

A simple mathematical projection for the first summer melt-out says 2015 +/- a couple of years. Minus might turn out to be the side that wins.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
256. Patrap
11:25 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
OT Patrap - was that 7.4 in Mexico two days early? Or was it a precursor to the big one on the 22nd? I hope, as a California resident, that it wasn't the latter. I guess we'll find out soon.

WTO


If I knew dat, I wouldnt be here, datz fer sho.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
255. sunlinepr
11:24 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Scientists study the use of nuclear bombs to avert asteroid doomsday Posted on March 20, 2012

March 20, 2012 – SPACE –A well-placed nuclear explosion could actually save humanity from a big asteroid hurtling toward Earth, just like in the movies, a new study suggests. Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory, a United States Department of Energy facility in New Mexico, used a supercomputer to model nukes’ anti-asteroid effectiveness. They attacked a 1,650-foot-long (500-meter) space rock with a 1-megaton nuclear weapon — about 50 times more powerful than the U.S. blast inflicted on Nagasaki, Japan, to help end World War II. The results were encouraging. “Ultimately this 1-megaton blast will disrupt all of the rocks in the rockpile of this asteroid, and if this were an Earth-crossing asteroid, would fully mitigate the hazard represented by the initial asteroid itself,” Los Alamos scientist Bob Weaver said in a recent video released by the lab. In the 3-D modeling study, run on 32,000 processors of the Cielo supercomputer, the blast went off at the asteroid’s surface. So the nuke likely wouldn’t have to be deposited deep into a threatening space rock, a dangerous job Bruce Willis and his astronaut crew tackled in the 1998 film “Armageddon.” Weaver stressed that nuclear bombs would likely be deployed only as a last resort, if an impact loomed just months away. And other researchers caution that a nuclear blast might have negative side effects, such as sending a hail of many small space rocks toward Earth instead of a single big one. If humanity had more notice of an impending impact, there are several other asteroid defense strategies we might be able to employ, scientists have said. Discussions about asteroid deflection aren’t just academic exercises. Huge impacts are a part of our planet’s history; one wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, and it’s just a matter of time before another big space rock lines Earth up in its sights, astronomers say. –Space.com

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
254. Patrap
11:24 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Eastern U. S. - Rainbow Loop

,,click image for Loop

ZOOM is available


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
253. ClimateChange
11:22 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Through today, the mean monthly temp at Chicago is up to 52.5F. This is 3.9F warmer than the previous record-breaking March. This would also be the 17th warmest April on record dating to 1872. And heck there have even been six Mays as cold or colder than this March.

South Bend is even more impressive. The mean monthly temp of 52.0F there is 4.6F above the previous record.
Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 245
252. WatchingThisOne
11:20 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
OT Patrap - was that 7.4 in Mexico two days early? Or was it a precursor to the big one on the 22nd? I hope, as a California resident, that it wasn't the latter. I guess we'll find out soon.

WTO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1269
251. sunlinepr
11:20 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Pretty impressive list of aftershocks from the Mexico quake. There's been a 5.3, 5.1, 5.1, 4.7, 4.8, 5.1, 4.6, and 5.0

Consistent aftershock
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
Quoting dogsgomoo:
I agree with you on this so much. In our area the sirens sound when there is a Thunderstorm Warning with a regional/county Tornado Watch OR when there is a Tornado Warning OR when there has been a Tornado spotted (OR there is a 'national security event' OR the aliens have landed). It's the same siren (duration/sound etc.) It's a big county so what do people do? They tend to ignore the sirens. I know my family and friends do. I'm usually already online and well aware of what's going on but the way the sirens are being used doesn't seem logical.


Sirens become an entirely different issue. Technically they are meant as an outdoor warning and are not typically designed to be heard indoors. From that angle, it would make sense that for very large hail and very strong winds, sounding the sirens might be appropriate to give people a heads up to seek sturdy shelter. But if they are sounded for every severe/tornado warning with our current false alarm rate... I'd suspect siren fatigue will likely preclude their usefullness for most people.
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248. wxmod
There are 2 big systems in this satellite that have begun to interact. The models from 2 days ago seem to be right on.


Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Until the people the NWS serves collectively understand the inherent uncertainty and agree that some weaker tornadoes will, and should be, missed so that tornado warnings mean business, it is unlikely we will see major changes.
I agree with you on this so much. In our area the sirens sound when there is a Thunderstorm Warning with a regional/county Tornado Watch OR when there is a Tornado Warning OR when there has been a Tornado spotted (OR there is a 'national security event' OR the aliens have landed). It's the same siren (duration/sound etc.) It's a big county so what do people do? They tend to ignore the sirens. I know my family and friends do. I'm usually already online and well aware of what's going on but the way the sirens are being used doesn't seem logical.
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 316
246. wxmod
Quoting Skyepony:
This article has the scary sea ice graph too... An eminent UK engineer is suggesting building cloud-whitening towers in the Faroe Islands as a "technical fix" for warming across the Arctic...instead of the going with the idea of cloud-whitening from ships.


I love these geoengineering stories. They all end with a line just like this:
"no funding is currently on the table for cloud-whitening. A proposal to build a prototype ship for about £20m found no takers, and currently development work is limited to the lab."
I showed you a bunch of satellite photos that showed cloud whitening ongoing in different locations. What do you believe? Your eyes of the nonsense they feed you in the propaganda-press?
Thanks for posting this story though. I hadn't seen it. A good read for folks who don't know a thing about this subject.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
Cell over Farmville VA doesnt look too nice. may need a warning if current trend continues with it.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting SPLbeater:
Also that cell in Caswell co. NC might need a re-issue depending on if it quits training.


:D

22 minutes after i said that a warning went out. heh.

thats 1,320 seconds to my score! lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC033-157-VAC143-202345-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0031.120320T2243Z-120320T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT.

* AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PELHAM...OR NEAR MAYFIELD...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PELHAM...
BETHEL...
RUFFIN...
LAWSONVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER OR LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...
1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 7978 3657 7967 3652 7936 3624 7949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 029DEG 4KT 3649 7951

$$

WP
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
New GFS run..
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
Pretty impressive list of aftershocks from the Mexico quake. There's been a 5.3, 5.1, 5.1, 4.7, 4.8, 5.1, 4.6, and 5.0
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good evening. Another 80 degree day up here today! Should easily reach 80 tomorrow and try for (though likely fall just short of) 90 on Thursday. Smashing records every day :)
Happy first day of Spring.

Same to you
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8138
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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