Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

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Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters

March 18th sundown (rosana)
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
March 18th sundown
Mullet Lake ice melting (JeffMasters)
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
End of the Icefishing Season (bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
End of the Icefishing Season

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There are a great many warnings going up now.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also seems to be forming a interesting shape on the radar.


Very characteristic supercell signature on radar. See the reflectivity of the forward flank splitting like a "V"? See how it abruptly slowed down and started to turn right? Even a hail spike evident from New Braunfels NEXRAD now. Probably worst threat would be south half of San Antonio area.

And the left-moving splitter looks like an anticyclonic supercell. Classic.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3203
Closest skew-t I could find to San Antonio (Del Rio):

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20832
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It definately has a very high VIL, although there doesn't look to be too much rotation with it at the moment.






It appears the one heading for San Antonio has become the main storm... Post 339 shows it well
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Well everyone, the heat wave in New England, the Mid West and Northern plains is incredible.

Surely today has smashed all time records after what I just heard Jim Cantore discussing on TWC?
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The top one may have some huge hail. It's really exploding
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also seems to be forming a interesting shape on the radar.

It definately has a very high VIL, although there doesn't look to be too much rotation with it at the moment.





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting TomTaylor:

Yeah but there is also a greater than 60% chance of near average or below average precipitation. Weird how those graphics work.


Depends. If you assume the other 2 of the 3 categories are split evenly, it would be 40% below + 30% near avg + 30% above avg. Sometimes it wouldnt be the best choice to split them evenly. Those graphics are tough for the general public to understand, and many times trained mets use them incorrectly.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3203
Quoting Patrap:

I guess what we Texans are trying to get across is it's quite sunny and bright rignt now everywhere except Dallas, so nobody thinks anything of the ~50/60% 'POP'.

Outside my windows it is shockingly sunny, with the treetops revolving in the wind.
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Del Rio NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11273
San Antonio is the seventh largest city in the United states with a pop of 1,327,407.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842

957
WUUS54 KEWX 192310
SVREWX
TXC019-265-325-463-200000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0024.120319T2310Z-120320T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
610 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
SOUTHERN KERR COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN MEDINA COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 605 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UTOPIA...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TARPLEY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE VANDERPOOL...MEDINA...CAMP
VERDE AND CENTER POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3009 9961 3001 9893 2948 9933 2951 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 190DEG 40KT 2959 9945
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am not liking the one that is heading for San Antonio

Looks like it is starting to acquire some rotation.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Technically, no. What it is saying is that the probability of below/above average precip is the labeled contour. So if it shows "40" and "below," that means there is a 40% chance of below average precip and a 60% chance of near average or above average precip.

Yeah but there is a greater than 60% chance of near average or below average precipitation. So below average to normal conditions are favored over above average to normal conditions, and of the three categories, below average precipitation is most likely. Weird how those graphics work.
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Tulsa-Inola
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am not liking the one that is heading for San Antonio


the rotation came up really fast for the warning.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731

150
WGUS54 KTSA 192309
FFWTSA
OKC021-091-097-101-131-145-200500-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.W.0005.120319T2309Z-120320T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM EASTERN MCINTOSH THROUGH
SOUTHERN MAYES COUNTY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER
MCINTOSH AND WESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OVER
MAYES AND EASTERN WAGONER COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL BANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME FLOODING OF ROADS HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN MAYES COUNTY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EUFAULA...MUSKOGEE...PRYOR...WAGONER...ADAIR...BOY NTON...BRAGGS...
CHECOTAH...CHEROKEE STATE PARK...CHOUTEAU...COUNCIL HILL...
COWETA...DISNEY...FORT GIBSON...HANNA...HASKELL...HULBERT...
INOLA...KEEFETON...LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...LANGLEY...LOCUST
GROVE...OKAY...OKTAHA...PEGGS...PENSACOLA...PORTER ...RAIFORD...
RENTIESVILLE AND ROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD TO
UNKNOWN DEPTHS. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER TO CARRY AWAY
MOST SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND PICKUPS. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO
REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. REMEMBER...
MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.



LAT...LON 3651 9500 3596 9501 3532 9533 3530 9550
3526 9551 3522 9560 3525 9560 3518 9576
3520 9580 3515 9598 3537 9598 3538 9588
3546 9588 3547 9582 3555 9582 3556 9571
3572 9571 3573 9577 3584 9577 3651 9543
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The top one may have some huge hail. It's really exploding
Also seems to be forming a interesting shape on the radar.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842

222
WFUS54 KEWX 192307
TOREWX
TXC163-325-192345-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0005.120319T2307Z-120319T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FRIO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 605 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRIO TOWN...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF PEARSALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE YANCEY...MOORE...SCHATTEL...
BIRY...BIG FOOT...DEVINE...PEARSON...NOONAN...NATALIA AND
CASTROVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 2942 9883 2892 9882 2884 9941 2904 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 241DEG 41KT 2897 9930
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I am not liking the one that is heading for San Antonio


possible big eve ahead ... hope not. don't like either
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Interestingly, several of the newer storms SW of San Antonio are splitting off, leaving two new cells, one which tends to be a right mover, and the other left. Some of the right movers look like they are starting to gradually spin, while left movers are known for intense hail.


The top one may have some huge hail. It's really exploding
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Interestingly, several of the newer storms SW of San Antonio are splitting off, leaving two new cells, one which tends to be a right mover, and the other left. Some of the right movers look like they are starting to gradually spin, while left movers are known for intense hail.

Supercells need to split to acquire a MESO. Typically it happens so early on you never see it on radar. One of them typically dies.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
7pm EDT

From the WU

Key Colony Beach Fl Keys
76 F

Dayton Ohio
80 F

come on down and cool off!!
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Interestingly, several of the newer storms SW of San Antonio are splitting off, leaving two new cells, one which tends to be a right mover, and the other left. Some of the right movers look like they are starting to gradually spin, while left movers are known for intense hail.



I am not liking the one that is heading for San Antonio
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Interestingly, several of the newer storms SW of San Antonio are splitting off, leaving two new cells, one which tends to be a right mover, and the other left. Some of the right movers look like they are starting to gradually spin, while left movers are known for intense hail.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
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iam about to flip the atomspheric ultrasonic wave generating device into overdrive hold things are to get a little intense

:)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah, but they aren't showing signs of rotation yet, although this could change.<

Probably will...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It was very close to the rotation so I thought it might be.


Conceptually, hail cores and the heaviest rainfall in supercells should be very near the updraft/downdraft interface, which many times is where tornadic circulations are located.

Most times, debris signatures on radar appear centered right over the center of the rotation. One can use spectrum width, SRM velocity, or GR2Analyst's normalized rotation product to help in determining the rotation center.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3203
Quoting muddertracker:


Discrete, too.

Yeah, but they aren't showing signs of rotation yet, although this could change.





Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Some of the newer storms are headed in the direction of San Antonio.



Discrete, too.
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Waiting for the main event to start up...should begin soon.
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Some of the newer storms are headed in the direction of San Antonio.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
The eeriness in DFW is amazing! You can feel it in the air. I hate being stuck in this office waiting for this storm to pop wide open.
I bet it is for sure, the weather service says this is a slow mover as well, be careful over there,stay safe
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LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
RAPIDES...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST.
MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:

HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

SSMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUEDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It was very close to the rotation so I thought it might be.
Yeah I could see why you would think that. Good eye. Seems like this system is more of a squall line instead of a supercell outbreak like the March 2nd outbreak.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Probably just a hail core.
It was very close to the rotation so I thought it might be.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Wow




Should have a really nice hook next frame.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Possible debris ball.
Probably just a hail core.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Looks like it is connected to the core of the storm, so probably not. Rotation is also displaced from the reflectivity maxima.

OK! Well, in that case, don't worry, be happy.
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The eeriness in DFW is amazing! You can feel it in the air. I hate being stuck in this office waiting for this storm to pop wide open.
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Current Severe Status
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Possible debris ball.

Looks like it is connected to the core of the storm, so probably not. Rotation is also displaced from the reflectivity maxima.
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Made it up to 81 here in Toledo today. That was a new record for the date, and the earliest 80 reading on record. It's supposed to be in the low to mid 80s tomorrow and Wednesday, and upper 70s to near 80 Thursday, so some more records should be broken.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.