Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

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Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters

March 18th sundown (rosana)
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
March 18th sundown
Mullet Lake ice melting (JeffMasters)
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
End of the Icefishing Season (bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
End of the Icefishing Season

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Quoting DavidHOUTX:


No kidding!! What is the NWS doing? Sure it isn't a highly populated area but seriously, that is absurd!!


A hook isn't everything... rural or urban.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
This storm should be tornado warned.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
448. Tygor
Yeah hopefully people are paying attention. Local stations aren't even cutting to the weather yet and this cell will begin to affect populated areas. I've talked to quite a few people in our neighborhood in the last hour and nobody had any idea weather was coming.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Of course right as it starting to get in the San Antonio area.


Good thing is the storm motion is pretty slow and maybe it will cycle back down before it gets into the Somerset area.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3193
Quoting KoritheMan:
Running out of time for an El Nino:


What's up Korith?.....I'm thinking the same
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Classic:

Of course right as it starting to get in the San Antonio area.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
People in Devine, Natalia and Lytle need to take cover now! This storm could be producing a strong tornado.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's your comprehensive list:

Fish storm! We are all DOOM! Poof! Flagged and re ported! Welcome to my ignore list! CMC! NAM! BAMM! GFDL! HWFI! LBAR! LGEM! SHIPS! TVCN! UKMET! XTRP! XTRP isn't a model! TUTT! Shear! Pinhole eye! Pinehole eye! Annular! Fujiwhara! Rapid intensification! I have a bad feeling about this! This could be another Ivan! Another Wilma! Another Andrerw! Another Camille! Don't like the looks of that! Things may get interesting soon! Things are going to get really scary next week! Season's just getting started! They need to move the start of season up to mid-May! There'll be no storms until mid-July! Ruh-roh! The 06z ECMWF shows a 995mb low right over my house at 384 hours! Season's over! This season's boring! Troll! Bustcaster! Westcaster! Backcaster! Nowcaster! Hypecaster! Doomcaster! The NHC is wrong! The NHC is lying! The NHC has really gone downhill lately! They're not classifying it because they don't want to scare us! They classified it because they want to inflate the numbers! Recon should make one more pass! They don't know what they're doing! Is that a wobble, or a jog? HAARP! Spurious low! Is it an invest yet? If the remnant low of a named storm comes back to life, does it get a new name?! ME GUSTA GRITAR EN ESPANOL EN LETRAS MAYUSCULAS! It's headed to the GOM! It's moving due west! It's going to Florida! It's not going to Florida! Westward! Poleward! The ocean's hot enough to boil shrimp! The Gulf's like a bottle with the cork in too tight! The Caribbean's like a ticking time bomb! The entire Atlantic is like a pressure-cooker with a clogged valve! The NHC needs a new box of crayons! The NHC finally found its box of crayons! Recurve! Wait; shouldn't it just be "curve" and not "recurve"?! Curtains up! Thanks, Dr. Masters! Face palm! Head explodes! The low is pumping the ridge! Shower curtain! JFV! Long-time lurker! I couldn't resist! 90% at the next TWO! Hebert Box! Hope Rule! Hot tub! High Octane! Jet fuel! Rocket fuel! Hot tub full of high-octane jet-like rocket fuel! Lol! LOL! ROFL! ROFLMAO! ROFLMFAO!!!!! SAL! MJO! PDO! NAO! ENSO! EWRC! SST! TCHP! OHC! TWC! TWC sucks! Cantore's in town; look out! AOI! MDR! COC! BOC! GOM! SLOSH! There's too much going on to talk about GW! There's nothing going on; do we have to talk about GW?! Hot tower! RIP! Thanks for the update! The ants are going crazy here! Cashews! We're going on a Caribbean cruise in a month-and-a-half; how are things looking for us? The models are shifting left! The models are shifting right! The models are dead on! The models were dead wrong! I don't feel like reading back, so I need a summary of the tropics! I'm in the cone! It looks like it's coming right into my livingroom! Lame; I get more wind and rain from a normal summer thunderstorm! I can't wait until the next TWO! I told you so! F5F5F5F5F5! The season's a bust! Don't quote the trolls! Ignored! Where is everybody?! The blog is s-l-o-w. The blog is boring! Z-z-z-z-z-z...
Ok now your just being silly.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
TORNADO WARNING
TXC013-325-200115-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0006.120320T0044Z-120320T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 742 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEVINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NATALIA...NOONAN...PEARSON
AND LYTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2938 9894 2917 9873 2909 9888 2914 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 221DEG 13KT 2917 9893

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Classic:



both it and the storm below it are becoming quite ominous.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting aspectre:
"Even if humankind manages to limit global warming to 2degreesCelsius...The natural state of the earth with present carbon dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 20 meters higher than at present."
Of course, it'd take centuries to a couple-or-so millennia to melt enough ice to achieve that ~66feet. Then again, noticeably less than a millennium may be an upper bound.
Except while within the navigational jurisdiction of some FirstWorld ports, cargo ships tend to burn the dirtiest of bunker oil in the dirtiest of marine engines.
Which in turn produces a massive outpouring of soot. When the NorthEast and NorthWest passages through the ArcticOcean becomes regular sea lanes, one can expect that those cargo ships' deposition of black carbon upon Arctic waters, sea-ice, and glacial-ice will hasten the meltdown greatly.

Interesting aspect that I hadn't thought of or read anywhere. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's your comprehensive list:

Fish storm! We are all DOOM! Poof! Flagged and re ported! Welcome to my ignore list! CMC! NAM! BAMM! GFDL! HWFI! LBAR! LGEM! SHIPS! TVCN! UKMET! XTRP! XTRP isn't a model! TUTT! Shear! Pinhole eye! Pinehole eye! Annular! Fujiwhara! Rapid intensification! I have a bad feeling about this! This could be another Ivan! Another Wilma! Another Andrerw! Another Camille! Don't like the looks of that! Things may get interesting soon! Things are going to get really scary next week! Season's just getting started! They need to move the start of season up to mid-May! There'll be no storms until mid-July! Ruh-roh! The 06z ECMWF shows a 995mb low right over my house at 384 hours! Season's over! This season's boring! Troll! Bustcaster! Westcaster! Backcaster! Nowcaster! Hypecaster! Doomcaster! The NHC is wrong! The NHC is lying! The NHC has really gone downhill lately! They're not classifying it because they don't want to scare us! They classified it because they want to inflate the numbers! Recon should make one more pass! They don't know what they're doing! Is that a wobble, or a jog? HAARP! Spurious low! Is it an invest yet? If the remnant low of a named storm comes back to life, does it get a new name?! ME GUSTA GRITAR EN ESPANOL EN LETRAS MAYUSCULAS! It's headed to the GOM! It's moving due west! It's going to Florida! It's not going to Florida! Westward! Poleward! The ocean's hot enough to boil shrimp! The Gulf's like a bottle with the cork in too tight! The Caribbean's like a ticking time bomb! The entire Atlantic is like a pressure-cooker with a clogged valve! The NHC needs a new box of crayons! The NHC finally found its box of crayons! Recurve! Wait; shouldn't it just be "curve" and not "recurve"?! Curtains up! Thanks, Dr. Masters! Face palm! Head explodes! The low is pumping the ridge! Shower curtain! JFV! Long-time lurker! I couldn't resist! 90% at the next TWO! Hebert Box! Hope Rule! Hot tub! High Octane! Jet fuel! Rocket fuel! Hot tub full of high-octane jet-like rocket fuel! Lol! LOL! ROFL! ROFLMAO! ROFLMFAO!!!!! SAL! MJO! PDO! NAO! ENSO! EWRC! SST! TCHP! OHC! TWC! TWC sucks! Cantore's in town; look out! AOI! MDR! COC! BOC! GOM! SLOSH! There's too much going on to talk about GW! There's nothing going on; do we have to talk about GW?! Hot tower! RIP! Thanks for the update! The ants are going crazy here! Cashews! We're going on a Caribbean cruise in a month-and-a-half; how are things looking for us? The models are shifting left! The models are shifting right! The models are dead on! The models were dead wrong! I don't feel like reading back, so I need a summary of the tropics! I'm in the cone! It looks like it's coming right into my livingroom! Lame; I get more wind and rain from a normal summer thunderstorm! I can't wait until the next TWO! I told you so! F5F5F5F5F5! The season's a bust! Don't quote the trolls! Ignored! Where is everybody?! The blog is s-l-o-w. The blog is boring! Z-z-z-z-z-z...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have given up on the idea that mankind will do anything about that which they have done therefore i am counting on mother nature to do what shall be done its no longer in our hand but in hers too do as she sees fit


Keeper, It's not as bad as it seems. It's not mankind. It's only our culture. I'll admit that our culture comprises about 98% of the world's population now but the interesting thing is that we don't have to engineer a new human. We just have to discard a few memes that support the most destructive culture in the history of mankind. One of those is "Humans belong to an order of being that is separate from the rest of the living community." (From The New Renaissance by Daniel Quinn)

This crazy meme, though widely accepted is obviously false. We are an integral part of the system and it will only a few years of drought in the breadbasket of America to teach us that. We can starve just like the dinosaurs did.

But again, the good news is that we don't need a new human, just a different culture. One more like the ones that were here before the Europeans arrived.
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Another one is "Big Wave emerging Africa"
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Quoting Ameister12:
Hopefully the NWS is going to issue a tornado warning soon. The storm has some of the strongest rotation I've seen today.

279
WFUS54 KEWX 200044
TOREWX
TXC013-325-200115-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0006.120320T0044Z-120320T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 742 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEVINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NATALIA...NOONAN...PEARSON
AND LYTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2938 9894 2917 9873 2909 9888 2914 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 221DEG 13KT 2917 9893

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Hopefully the NWS is going to issue a tornado warning soon. The storm has some of the strongest rotation I've seen today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
also PINHOLE eye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

279
WFUS54 KEWX 200044
TOREWX
TXC013-325-200115-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0006.120320T0044Z-120320T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 742 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEVINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NATALIA...NOONAN...PEARSON
AND LYTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 2938 9894 2917 9873 2909 9888 2914 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 221DEG 13KT 2917 9893
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting reedzone:


Don't forget this one..
"El Nino is here, Hurricane Season is over, sorry folks"


Ah, right. That will happen as soon as we see even the slightest equatorial Pacific warming.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What about the classic "It's become Annular".


"It's coming to Florida."
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Quoting KoritheMan:


See? It's already happening.

I kid, I kid. I know you're not that dull. ;)


LOL,Seriously,I was pointing out your graphic of anomalies that you posted.

Also,another one is "big red blob"
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Rotation just went way up on the original cell SW of San Antonio!



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting Patrap:
And the # 1 "seasonal" quote,

Definitely looks Like another Wilma..!
What about the classic "It's become Annular".
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"


You all forgot the most important one, IT'S MOVING WEST
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And the # 1 "seasonal" quote,

Definitely looks Like another Wilma..!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also,those Gulfstream waters are very warm and that area can be a favorable one early in the season.


See? It's already happening.

I kid, I kid. I know you're not that dull. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The US 83 storm has hardly moved since it formed. Could be flooding issues with that one!



I am wondering if an event like this will happen over SE Texas and Eastern Louisiana
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The US 83 storm has hardly moved since it formed. Could be flooding issues with that one!



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"


'Beryl looks pathetic, why did the NHC even bother with this? Padding numbers ONCE AGAIN'

'What is your problem? We told you this would be DMIN, this is what happens at DMIN, convection wanes and the system looks pathetic, but once DMAX comes along, Beryl will be well on its way'

6 hours later

'Beryl looks like a beast! Probably a hurricane by tomorrow'

'The latest satellite imagery shows waning convection'

'It's because it's heading into DMIN'

'DMIN isn't until for another 5 hours or so'

'On our time, but for the Eastern Atlantic they're ahead'

'Telling you, Beryl looks sick. RIP'

The cycle of the season.
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Hundreds more daily and monthly high temperature records were broken today, this time more east than we've seen over the past several days. A few highlights:

--The temperature in Pellston, MI--a town at the northern tip of the LP--reached 82 degrees this afternoon, beating the old record high for the date (56) by 26 degrees.

--International Falls, MN, reached 78 degrees today. The three highest March temperatures ever there--77, 78, and 79--have taken place over the past three days.

--Winnipeg, Manitoba, made it to 24 C (75.2 F) today, the warmest March (and winter) temperature ever there.

--Some forecasts call for parts of Massachusetts--including Boston--to reach as high as 90 this Thursday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"


Don't forget this one..
"El Nino is here, Hurricane Season is over, sorry folks"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87...WW
88...

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE STORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX...WHILE A FEW ISOLATED CELLS FORM AHEAD
OF THE LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST TX. THIS REGION IS NEAR THE AXIS OF A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND AREA WHERE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST AN INCREASING
RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...HART

WWUS40 KWNS 200025
WWP9

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

WT 0089
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
417. redux
ive been lurking too long to not lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"


Also,those Gulfstream waters are very warm and that area can be a favorable one early in the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"


"That eye totally needs a tornado warning."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It's going to be very interesting in the blog during hurricane season.


"Is that a developing eye in Alberto?"

"No, it's dry air."

"And I'm telling you it's an eye!"

"Look how warm those Gulf SSTs are. Can you say June major hurricane?"
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612
It's going to be very interesting in the blog during hurricane season.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11159
"Even if humankind manages to limit global warming to 2degreesCelsius...The natural state of the earth with present carbon dioxide levels is one with sea levels about 20 meters higher than at present."
Of course, it'd take centuries to a couple-or-so millennia to melt enough ice to achieve that ~66feet. Then again, noticeably less than a millennium may be an upper bound.
Except while within the navigational jurisdiction of some FirstWorld ports, cargo ships tend to burn the dirtiest of bunker oil in the dirtiest of marine engines.
Which in turn produces a massive outpouring of soot. When the NorthEast and NorthWest passages through the ArcticOcean become regular sea lanes, one can expect that those cargo ships' deposition of black carbon upon Arctic waters, sea-ice, and glacial-ice will hasten the meltdown greatly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That Leakey storm REALLY needs a tornado warning. Starting to form a hook.


i dont see anything ominous
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Running out of time for an El Nino:

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20612



SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS EASTERN OK...WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE ARE PRESENT. THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE ONGOING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR THIS REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...HART

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
407. redux
neat toy. you can see the anvil tops.
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i think coming out from a neutral yr can calculate the outcome of the Atlantic sea surface temps in other words a warm neutral dictates cooling next yr and warming in some region in the Atlantic however cold neutral does the total opposite just food for thought
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That Leakey storm REALLY needs a tornado warning. Starting to form a hook.


No kidding!! What is the NWS doing? Sure it isn't a highly populated area but seriously, that is absurd!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That Leakey storm REALLY needs a tornado warning. Starting to form a hook.

How is that not tornado warned?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7788
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
402. Tygor
Storms coming towards San Antonio seem to be dying down a bit. Tornado warnings are being left to expire apparently. Looking kind of ominous outside, but nothing major yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That Leakey storm REALLY needs a tornado warning. Starting to form a hook.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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