Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

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Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters

March 18th sundown (rosana)
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
March 18th sundown
Mullet Lake ice melting (JeffMasters)
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
End of the Icefishing Season (bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
End of the Icefishing Season

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550. JeffM
Tornado warning for San Antonio canceled per local news.
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..Humor has it's place, but idiocy tends to leave a room, empty.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Don't write it off yet these guys tend to cycle.


Supercells do, but it requires the downdraft to cause a new updraft, the new updraft to cause a new downdraft, etc. Inflow has substantially weakened, the core is virtually gone aloft, and both storms appear to no longer be connected to the surface. Still could flare up again but I'm thinking it's pretty unlikely now. They no longer appear to be supercellular and just look like remnant moisture waiting to precipitate out. Need a new core to form aloft, and quick, or its basically over. Havent seen a strong RFD lately that could help produce a strong updraft to get it cycled back up.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
ROTFL!!!!!!!



Problem anyone?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:
Both storms that were once supercells appear to have lost their surface-based updrafts and are now moving more northerly. Their cores have both diminished considerably and it is nearing a point were a recycle is getting less likely. San Antonio might live to see another day.
Yah seems right.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Reed Timmer picture of San Antonio Tornado.


JUST came in about 27 seconds ago.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like the cell has considerably weakened.

Don't write it off yet these guys tend to cycle.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Looks like it lifted before San Antonio got hit.
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Both storms that were once supercells appear to have lost their surface-based updrafts and are now moving more northerly. Their cores have both diminished considerably and it is nearing a point were a recycle is getting less likely. San Antonio might live to see another day.
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Looks like the cell has considerably weakened.

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539. Tygor
Quoting CybrTeddy:
From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio


If this is true, it has about 10 minutes to get into the air before things get bad.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


So probably a rope tornado, then. :)
He does tend to exaggerate.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...87...89...

VALID 200122Z - 200215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
85...87...89...CONTINUES.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL TX INCLUDING THE TX HILL COUNTRY AREA THIS EVENING. AT LEAST
TWO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WERE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0130Z OVER SCNTRL TX
INCLUDING ONE MOVING INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SWRN PORTION OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SCNTRL TX WEST OF THE SAN ANTONIO
AREA. A COUPLE OF OTHER DISCRETE AND LIKELY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY INCLUDING ONE IN PROXIMITY TO SAN
ANTONIO. THESE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AS THEY BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE OVER SCNTRL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS EXIST. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS
CATCHING UP WITH WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28720037 29680013 31079797 32059718 33849566 32959533
30959650 28319919 28720037
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio


So probably a rope tornado, then. :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.

This could be really bad
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
OMG! GFS @ 456 hours says the eye's going right through my front yard!

Don't worry the XTRP model says it will miss you by a mile...
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532. redux
the one south of the san antonio one showing a hook signature too.
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From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio
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I live in Northeast Texas about 60 miles east of the Lousiana border. I'm hoping to get through this event without any issues, but we're in a Tornado Watch area so I'm not sure. >_<
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Nothing much, just hangin out..how bout you
I'm good....I been a bit busy with school work today
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8147
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NWS needs to put downtown under a tornado warning
Storm has gotten weaker but it could cycle.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting Madrid:
I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.

Stay safe!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Madrid:
I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.


Don't stick around here!!
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NWS needs to put downtown under a tornado warning
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's probably about to rope out. Radar representation died out quick. Storm pulled to the north of previous track even more. The more northerly track makes me wonder if it is not as surface-based as before. Still, could recycle with a new RFD and circulation at any time.
Listening to a chaser on a call with a chaser on the storm. He says its been on the ground the whole time. Posted link to it below.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Tornado on the ground being reported by Tornado Trojans!
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I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.
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520. Tygor
KEN5 is showing pictures of the tornado on the ground. The current storm is reaching the city limits, but the tornado portion of the cell is still quite some time away. Downtown is still probably 20 minutes away. They're saying the tornadic portion of the storm is tracking downtown.
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Quoting ncstorm:


from KABB Fox San Antonio

tornado heading to San Antonio
Wow may have to issue a tornado emergency soon.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A little old. AT 806 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A DAMAGING TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LYTLE. AT 814 PM...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

But am listening to a conversation between 2 chasers and 1 of them is on that storm. He says there is a tornado on the ground.


It's probably about to rope out. Radar representation died out quick. Storm pulled to the north of previous track even more. The more northerly track makes me wonder if it is not as surface-based as before. Still, could recycle with a new RFD and circulation at any time.
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Quoting Patrap:

The storm has wobbled left it looks like...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837


from KABB Fox San Antonio

tornado heading to San Antonio
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Chaser says tornado has been on ground sense first report and took a NW turn recently. Link
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXC013-029-325-200200-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120320T0200Z/
MEDINA TX-BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA
COUNTIES...

AT 827 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A DAMAGING
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGE NEAR I-35 AT NATALIA AT 806 PM.

THE TORNADO WILL REACH MIDWAY BY 835 PM...AND NEAR VON ARMY...
MACONA AND MANGUS CORNER ALONG LOOP 1604 BY 845 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AND LACKLAND AFB. LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TORNADO TRACK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A VEHICLE IS EASILY ROLLED AND CRUSHED BY A TORNADO. DO NOT TRY TO
OUTRUN ONE. IF NO STRONG BUILDING IS CLOSE...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AND
TAKE SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. COVER YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY...BATHROOM...OR CLOSET. COVER
YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS OR EVEN A MATTRESS FOR BETTER
PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2924 9855 2924 9880 2930 9884 2943 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 222DEG 18KT 2928 9874

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No confirmed tornado on the ground.


Yes. But that doesn't mean that the tornado is causing every bit of damage that is reported. RFDs many times can produce damage similar to a weak tornado, and over a larger area. Present that with an interstate and many vehicles, you'll get reports like above. Point is we don't know exactly what caused the report, maybe wasn't the tornado itself.

Either way, the tornadic circulation seems to be going a bit more of a northeasterly track compared to when it first did its right-turn earlier this evening. I'd be a bit more worried for southern and central San Antonio metro now.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
hey guys you remember the two map that someone posted last year with a heap of storm you know the dooms day hurricane 2012 thing can someone post that for me right now I need to use that image for something
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.
Can never tell strength of radar. I thought for sure West Liberty was an EF5.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.
A little old. AT 806 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A DAMAGING TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LYTLE. AT 814 PM...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

But am listening to a conversation between 2 chasers and 1 of them is on that storm. He says there is a tornado on the ground.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.


CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND HEADING TOWARDS SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS ***
UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA
COUNTIES...

... AT 822 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED
TO HAVE PRODUCED DAMAGE AS RECENTLY AS 806 PM.

THE TORNADO IS TRACKING NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-35 TOWARD
THE COMMUNITY OF MIDWAY. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE
SOMERSET...MANGUS CORNER...MACDONA...VON ORMY...THELMA AND LACKLAND
AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A VEHICLE IS EASILY ROLLED AND CRUSHED BY A TORNADO. DO NOT TRY TO
OUTRUN ONE. IF NO STRONG BUILDING IS CLOSE...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AND
TAKE SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. COVER YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY...BATHROOM...OR CLOSET. COVER
YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS OR EVEN A MATTRESS FOR BETTER
PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.


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Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.
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We launched a 00Z sounding here at the University, so hopefully that will help forecasts here on out.



Link
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I'm about 5 miles southwest of Fredericksburg, TX. I'm worried about the tornado warning just to my southwest. Any thoughts on it???
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San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Could be RFD coming up the interstate, too.
No confirmed tornado on the ground.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
San Antonio cell:



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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Good chance something is on the ground with this report. 0106 2 SSW LYTLE MEDINA TX 2921 9881 POWER FLASHES AND OVERTURNED SEMI TRAILER AT I-35 MILE MARKER 127.


Could be RFD coming up the interstate, too.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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