Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

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Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters

March 18th sundown (rosana)
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
March 18th sundown
Mullet Lake ice melting (JeffMasters)
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
End of the Icefishing Season (bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
End of the Icefishing Season

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it was horrible no snow warm all the time very little cold now its over in 52 mins
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I'm hittin the sack, long day tomm....weather wise
Gonna be water rescues going on by sunrise somewhere
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last 59 mins of winter remain


What winter?
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last 59 mins of winter remain
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Very long list of Flash Flood Warnings.

Link
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Approaching 10 inches in western Bandera county!



and heading for Lake Travis
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Approaching 10 inches in western Bandera county!

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Quoting RitaEvac:


I thought this line would be pass San Antonio and Austin and heading our way coming down I-10


Me too. I am pretty shocked. I didn't think this front would stall out like that over Central Texas as it has done; but given these 30-40mph winds straight from the South should have triggered that. None of the models predicted these South winds to affect this front like it has. It will be really interesting to see if this holds together into SE Texas (given these south winds and this moisture, I don't see how it couldn't, unless it is capped).

I will be up all night, thats for sure lol
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
Quoting TomTaylor:
West Texas isn't getting much drought relief from this...and they're the ones who need it most


Neither is Corpus and points southward, who need it almost equally as much.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
West Texas isn't getting much drought relief from this...and they're the ones who need it most
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Quoting DavidHOUTX:



This thing seems to be stalling out farther west than initially predicted. This could be a significant flood threat for SE and E Texas. These strong S winds are really feeding this boundary. What a night we have ahead of us


I thought this line would be pass San Antonio and Austin and heading our way coming down I-10
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Can draw a line from Temple northward and the line is progressing eastward, everything south of Temple is stalled out and training



This thing seems to be stalling out farther west than initially predicted. This could be a significant flood threat for SE and E Texas. These strong S winds are really feeding this boundary. What a night we have ahead of us
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
well goodnight all. back tomorrow morning...as usual.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
This has the possibility to be an exceptionally dangerous situation setting up tonight!

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Eagle Pass remains a thunderstorm factory.

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Can draw a line from Temple northward and the line is progressing eastward, everything south of Temple is stalled out and training
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW SHOWERS WERE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS SE TX AT MID
EVENING. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF THE
EVENTS...WITH THE NAM12 APPEARING TO BE TOO SLOW. THE 00Z RUC
LOOKED GOOD AND BROUGHT THE LINE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT GIVEN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE THE WIND ADVISORY...CHANCES FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...THE WINDS ARE STILL MIXING DOWN ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SITES ABOVE 25 MPH AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS FROM KCRP...KLCH...AND A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT COLLEGE
STATION ALL INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. THE COLLEGE STATION
SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP PRETTY MUCH ERODED. THIS INFORMATION IN
ADDITION TO THE RUC FORECAST AND THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE LIEN
OUT WEST INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCES
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BY 08Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO MODIFY THE TIMING OF EVENTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
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Quoting redwagon:

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.


I think we'll get ours...well...off to sleep...with the sound of the NOAA weather radio guy repeating himself softly in the background...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be awesome since it is down 50 feet from being full, I would Love 10 inches to fall around the Lake tonight, very heavy rains west of San Antonio moving very slowly this way.


Incoming short wave coming outta Mexico conjoining the line, gonna be some drought busting rains tonight
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
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Quoting redwagon:

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.


Yall have any idea what's coming from your SW....
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight

That would be awesome since it is down 50 feet from being full, I would Love 10 inches to fall around the Lake tonight, very heavy rains west of San Antonio moving very slowly this way.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
This line has slowed way the hell down, makes me wonder when this will ever make it to Houston/Galveston tomm
crawling or tech term Quasi-stationary
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Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight



Nice! Only 50-60 feet needed? We'll take it!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
This line has slowed way the hell down, makes me wonder when this will ever make it to Houston/Galveston tomm
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting SPLbeater:
LOL whats gotten into 93.9 FM? in Raleigh, the dude said" can you beleive it we will be closing in on 90 tomorrow for a high" and im like, "ARE YOU STUPID!?" cuz Raliegh is forecast to only reach 80 tomorrow.


he must be making his own forecasts lol
no SPL it will be 90 tomorrow real feel with humidex values factor in thats why dew points run high means humid conditions will occur



............... "ARE YOU STUPID!?" ................
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That's what I call saturation!

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Quoting Tygor:


It's coming, and you'll know when it parks over you
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Tygor:


LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Driest tornado warning in history
yeah but you really did not want an EF3 or more ripping down the door
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LOL whats gotten into 93.9 FM? in Raleigh, the dude said" can you beleive it we will be closing in on 90 tomorrow for a high" and im like, "ARE YOU STUPID!?" cuz Raliegh is forecast to only reach 80 tomorrow.


he must be making his own forecasts lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
615. Tygor
Quoting Tygor:



LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Driest tornado warning in history
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
614. Tygor
Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?


LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Dries tornado warning in history
Member Since: May 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 168
This area from Temple to Waco looks like it might be mauled by rainfall tonight!

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Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?


Waco.
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Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2348
Just watched a youtube vid with some pictures and video clips of Sanford NC tornado damamge last year first hand....made me wanna cry. And it wasnt the damamge that made me wanna cry, it was the fact that the pictures n the video was my home town that i grew up in. And too see it destroyed REALLY hurts.

Felt just like the time when we drove past Lowe's on the 16th of april...hurt.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
Quoting jamesrainier:
pink triangle



Doesn't look warranted based on velocities.

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They seem to have lost most of their spin, but they sure are dropping a great deal of rain!



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pink triangle south of Waco

edit-Not now that I post it here.

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TORNADO WARNING
ARC033-143-200330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0007.120320T0257Z-120320T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF CEDARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...MOUNTAINBURG...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...CHESTER...
LAKE FORT SMITH...BLACKBURN...WINSLOW AND BRENTWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9399 3566 9402 3566 9407 3564 9407
3552 9445 3576 9449 3590 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 241DEG 33KT 3560 9439

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14256
Looks like I won't be spending so much time in TX this year 1900hurricane.
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Things are really lighting up now convection-wise!



Click for a loop.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 200246Z - 200445Z

HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGHER RATES ARE EXPECTED FROM
S-CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL TX INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY.

EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN TX
SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL AND SWRN TX EAST OF DEL RIO. NERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS FEATURE TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG SWRN
PORTIONS. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE
BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION BACKBUILDING SWWD TO NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER. WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST AND THE
TENDENCY FOR MID-UPPER FLOW TO BACK WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AS THE STORMS TRAIN NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32689569 30559740 28719987 29440058 31089851 33169627
32689569
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Chicago did not hit 80 today and ended their streak. A pity.

But in Georgia we've kept ours going. Atlanta and Athens tied their record for the most consecutive 80 degree days in March. And tomorrow so will Columbus, GA. Atlanta and Athens are both forecast to break their record March 80 degree day streaks tomorrow.

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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC019-171-265-385-463-200530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0018.120320T0223Z-120320T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...
CENTRAL KERR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT.

* AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 PM. RADAR
ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH GROUND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA BY 1030 PM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KERRVILLE...VANDERPOOL...GARNER STATE PARK...HARPER...HUNT...
INGRAM...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...MOUNTAIN
HOME...REAGAN WELLS...RIO FRIO...TIVYDALE...UTOPIA AND WALTONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9890 2947 9954 2956 9987 3038 9922

$$

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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