Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

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Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters

March 18th sundown (rosana)
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
March 18th sundown
Mullet Lake ice melting (JeffMasters)
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Come have a glass of wine on the patio! (RedRoxx)
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
End of the Icefishing Season (bbend)
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.
End of the Icefishing Season

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Strong rotation...

I beat both of you. =)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

001
WFUS54 KSJT 192010
TORSJT
TXC435-192045-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0001.120319T2010Z-120319T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
310 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 307 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND
RANCH ROAD 189...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SONORA...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
THE INTERSECTION OF US-277 AND RANCH ROAD 189 BY 325 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 3029 10096 3038 10097 3039 10095 3049 10062
3029 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 249DEG 29KT 3027 10079
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
TORNADO WARNING
TXC137-465-192045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0002.120319T2006Z-120319T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
VAL VERDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 302 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JUNO...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FLOUR MILLS.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10106 3030 10056 3029 10037 3002 10063
3000 10106 3017 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 249DEG 35KT 3012 10101

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Again today i am picking the southern most storm (the one down by Mexico) for the 1st tornado warning.


:)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
VAL VERDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 302 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JUNO...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FLOUR MILLS.

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10106 3030 10056 3029 10037 3002 10063
3000 10106 3017 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 249DEG 35KT 3012 10101

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forecast is ULL to stall and setup a north to south line of heavy rain near the TX/LA border, but if that ULL is a tad farther west when it stalls....well Houston.....we've gotta problem coming.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Again today i am picking the southern most storm (the one down by Mexico) for the 1st tornado warning.


the storm 2nd from the bottom looks good rotation wise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Brand new, the hail probability now has a hatched area:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6:00PM CDT TUESDAY, MARCH 20
Issue Time: 3:00PM CDT, Monday Mar 19, 2012
Valid Until: 6:00PM CDT, Tuesday Mar 20, 2012
Back to summary

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MA DISON-MATAGORDA- MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WHARTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OFALVINANAHUACANGLETONBAY CITY..
UNTIL 6:00PM CDT
Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2012

Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado -Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-M adison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
Including The Cities Of... Alvin... Anahuac... Angleton... Bay City...
Bellville... Brenham... Brookshire... Bryan... Caldwell... Cleveland...
Coldspring... College Station... Columbus... Conroe... Corrigan...
Crockett... Dayton... Eagle Lake... Edna... El Campo... Freeport...
Friendswood... Galveston... Groveton... Hempstead... Houston...
Humble... Huntsville... Katy... Lake Jackson... Lake Somerville...
League City... Liberty... Livingston... Madisonville...
Missouri City... Mont Belvieu... Navasota... Onalaska... Palacios...
Pasadena... Pearland... Pierce... Prairie View... Richmond...
Rosenberg... Sealy... Shepherd... Sugar Land... Texas City...
The Woodlands... Tomball... Trinity... Weimar... Wharton... Willis...
Winnie
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2012

... Flash Flood Watch In Effect From Late Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Houston/Galveston Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas... Including
The Following Counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos...
Burleson... Chambers... Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Liberty... Madison...
Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity...
Walker... Waller... Washington And Wharton.

* From Late Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon

* Strong South To Southeast Winds Will Continue To Pump Very Deep
Tropical Moisture Into Central And East Texas As A Very Strong
And Intense Mid And Upper Level Storm System Out West Slowly
Works Its Way Eastward Into The State. Showers And Thunderstorms
Are Possible Through This Evening... But The Expected Rapid
Movement Of Anything That Does Develop Should Keep Rainfall
Totals On The Light To Moderate Side. Increasing Storm Coverage
Has Already Begun Across Central Texas... And This Activity Will
Move Into Our Western Counties Before Sunrise Tuesday Morning.
With Strong Low Level Winds Continuing To Pump The Deep Tropical
Moisture Into The Area And With Extremely Favorable Winds
Aloft... Heavy Rains Are Expected To Develop Along And Ahead Of A
Slow Moving Frontal Boundary. This Boundary Will Move Eastward
During The Day On Tuesday And Will Produce Periods Of Heavy Rain
For Much Of Southeast Texas. Rainfall Totals Are Expected To
Average 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Or
Greater Where Any Training Of Storms Occurs. The Lower Rainfall
Amounts Are Generally Expected South Of The Interstate 10
Corridor... And The Higher Amounts Are Anticipated To Be North Of
The Interstate 10 Corridor. It Is Likely That Portions Of The
Texas And Louisiana Area Will Receive 5 Or More Inches Of Rain
Before This Event Comes To An End.

* Heavy Rains Are Expected To Come To An End From West To East As
The Day Progresses On Tuesday. However... There Is Concern As To
How Far East The Boundary Will Get Due To The Location Of Where
The Central Texas Storm System Eventually Stalls. If The System
Meanders A Little Further West Than Anticipated... Then Heavy
Rainfall Across Eastern Portions Of Southeast Texas Might Be
Slow To Move East Of The Area... And This Could Result In Greater
Rainfall Totals Than Currently Anticipated. Also... There Are
Some Indications That Additional Rainfall Could Develop Tuesday
Night Through Wednesday Morning Across Portions Of Southeast
Texas. If This Occurs... Any Rains Falling Over Already Soaked
Locations Could Aggravate The Threat For Flooding.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

A Flash Flood Watch Means That Conditions May Develop That Lead
To Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding Is A Very Dangerous Situation.

You Should Monitor Later Forecasts And Be Prepared To Take Action
Should Flash Flood Warnings Be Issued.



Saw that one coming! About time they issued it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6:00PM CDT

... Flash Flood Watch In Effect From Late Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon...

The National Weather Service In Houston/Galveston Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas... Including
The Following Counties... Austin... Brazoria... Brazos...
Burleson... Chambers... Colorado... Fort Bend... Galveston...
Grimes... Harris... Houston... Jackson... Liberty... Madison...
Matagorda... Montgomery... Polk... San Jacinto... Trinity...
Walker... Waller... Washington And Wharton.

* From Late Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon

* Strong South To Southeast Winds Will Continue To Pump Very Deep
Tropical Moisture Into Central And East Texas As A Very Strong
And Intense Mid And Upper Level Storm System Out West Slowly
Works Its Way Eastward Into The State. Showers And Thunderstorms
Are Possible Through This Evening... But The Expected Rapid
Movement Of Anything That Does Develop Should Keep Rainfall
Totals On The Light To Moderate Side. Increasing Storm Coverage
Has Already Begun Across Central Texas... And This Activity Will
Move Into Our Western Counties Before Sunrise Tuesday Morning.
With Strong Low Level Winds Continuing To Pump The Deep Tropical
Moisture Into The Area And With Extremely Favorable Winds
Aloft... Heavy Rains Are Expected To Develop Along And Ahead Of A
Slow Moving Frontal Boundary. This Boundary Will Move Eastward
During The Day On Tuesday And Will Produce Periods Of Heavy Rain
For Much Of Southeast Texas. Rainfall Totals Are Expected To
Average 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Or
Greater Where Any Training Of Storms Occurs. The Lower Rainfall
Amounts Are Generally Expected South Of The Interstate 10
Corridor... And The Higher Amounts Are Anticipated To Be North Of
The Interstate 10 Corridor. It Is Likely That Portions Of The
Texas And Louisiana Area Will Receive 5 Or More Inches Of Rain
Before This Event Comes To An End.

* Heavy Rains Are Expected To Come To An End From West To East As
The Day Progresses On Tuesday. However... There Is Concern As To
How Far East The Boundary Will Get Due To The Location Of Where
The Central Texas Storm System Eventually Stalls. If The System
Meanders A Little Further West Than Anticipated... Then Heavy
Rainfall Across Eastern Portions Of Southeast Texas Might Be
Slow To Move East Of The Area... And This Could Result In Greater
Rainfall Totals Than Currently Anticipated. Also... There Are
Some Indications That Additional Rainfall Could Develop Tuesday
Night Through Wednesday Morning Across Portions Of Southeast
Texas. If This Occurs... Any Rains Falling Over Already Soaked
Locations Could Aggravate The Threat For Flooding.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

A Flash Flood Watch Means That Conditions May Develop That Lead
To Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding Is A Very Dangerous Situation.

You Should Monitor Later Forecasts And Be Prepared To Take Action
Should Flash Flood Warnings Be Issued.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012 /129 PM MDT MON MAR 19 2012/

...PRELIMINARY TORNADO RATING OF EF3 IN NORTH PLATTE...

A STORM SURVEY OF LAST NIGHTS NORTH PLATTE TORNADO IS BEING
CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THE DAMAGE
OBSERVED SO FAR...A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE RATING OF EF3...OR WINDS BETWEEN
136 MPH AND 165 MPH...HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE TORNADO. THE
HIGHEST LEVEL OF DAMAGE HAS BEEN TO RESIDENCES ALONG WEST FRONT
STREET ALONG WITH MANGLED POWERLINE TRUSSES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF NORTH PLATTE. IN ADDITION...THE NWS HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF
FOUR INJURIES SUSTAINED IN THE TORNADO.

A FULL STORM REPORT WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN THE DAMAGE SURVEY IS
COMPLETED.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Tornado shortly


Yeah, that sucker is entering jet fuel! CAPE approaching 4000 J/kg is in very close proximity to that storm cell.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting 1900hurricane:
If we can get any pre-frontal discrete storm cells to develop, they might have a relatively easy time developing rotation with rather high helicity values out ahead of the main line. Capping remains an issue though.





I expect it to bust that capping like a hot knife thru butter later tonight
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is wrong, because NOLA isn't supposed to get much rain




Take that up with the HPC. It's their map. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If we can get any pre-frontal discrete storm cells to develop, they might have a relatively easy time developing rotation with rather high helicity values out ahead of the main line. Capping remains an issue though.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Tornado shortly



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Again today i am picking the southern most storm (the one down by Mexico) for the 1st tornado warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
U shape jet streak....Incoming!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
182. txjac
I see some rain headed for McAlester Ok ...I'm here for two weeks for work ...been totally windy and very cloudy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OUCH! Look at the hook echo forming on this cell.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
I just posted a Warning 15 minutes before the NWS posted using the GR2Analyst program....





You can follow my post at my Website if you wish!

I think you're confused as to what you can do with GR2Analyst. You don't get anything more special than they do, they use the program to. If there wasn't a warning out when you noticed the storm, it means it did not warrant a warning at the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO INTENSIFY ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
TX...PARTIALLY AIDED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED
MAX EJECTING NEWD OVER W TX. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
E OF THE BOUNDARY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. AS A RESULT...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...ANY OF THE STORMS ROOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW
TORNADOES.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
We got tornado watches in texas




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
More on that just issued watch:



WWUS40 KWNS 191940
WWP5

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

WT 0085
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 50%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23045
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
In fact throw all the damn models out, until I see heavy rain in my neck of the woods and NOLA then we'll call it like it is
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting wxmod:
South Asia smog today. MODIS

64. wxmod
As a person having a lot of experience of pollution,( I grew up in the North of England in the smog years of the 1950s,) I am always keen to try and point out to people about how bad this lurking smoke is!
One thing that I am wondering about with these photos you keep posting is, these shots are above areas that get very warm in their summers, unlike industrial Northern Europe normally does. I remember reading that the action of sunlight on atmospheric pollution in cases where there is also extreme heat present can cause some very nasty, harmful and carcinogenic byproducts. If this is truly the case then these polluted areas are heading for one huge future medical problem.
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This is wrong, because NOLA isn't supposed to get much rain


Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Bad news: A group of scientists have warned that because of global warming, sea levels will rise so much that parts of New Jersey will be under water.

Worse news: Parts of New Jersey won't be under water.
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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TORNADO WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-031-035-049-053-083-085-093-095-097-099-11 3-121-137-139-
143-147-171-181-193-217-221-251-259-265-267-271-2 81-299-307-309-
319-325-327-333-363-367-385-411-413-425-435-439-4 63-465-497-
200300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0085.120319T1940Z-120320T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE
BROWN BURNET COLEMAN
COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DENTON EDWARDS ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN GILLESPIE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HILL
HOOD JOHNSON KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAMPASAS LLANO MASON
MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MEDINA
MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO
PARKER REAL SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SOMERVELL SUTTON
TARRANT UVALDE VAL VERDE
WISE
$$


ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Does anyone know what the CPC is thinking with this? Aren't we supposed to see some rain over TX and OK?



They are saying that days 6-10 in the forecast should have below normal amounts of precipitation in the brown areas. That doesn't account for days 1-5 which should have well above normal amount of precip in a lot of areas.
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Quoting kwgirl:
How do you know the mosquitoes are female? Only females bite, so I would hazard a guess that these are male mosquitoes. Maybe hanging around looking for females. What better place than near the food?:)
I use a jeweler's loop.

The males die in the fall. Only the females hibernate, and they've already been fertilized for life.

These are the big females that have over-wintered.

It's just a little weird to see so many in the house, and none of them biting.

If early spring warmth is sufficient to bring out the deciduous plants and flowering evergreens, why aren't the mosquitoes impressed by this, as well?

Since egg development, following a blood meal takes between 3-5 days, my guess is that the mosquitoes are saying that there won't be sufficient rainfall to make babies for at least a week out? Perhaps the decision to feed isn't made until after rainfall occurs, but this closes the window of opportunity some, for their short life cycle. It would be better for them, if they were good weather forecasters.

They don't apparently remain pregnant very long, either, preferring to get rid of their eggs. Hibernation can extend their lifespans from a couple of weeks in the summertime to 6-8 months in the winter.

So why are they flying around all over the place, using up their precious life cycle, when there's no desire to feed and breed? They're also risking being eaten by predators. Why not stay holed up someplace until both the temperature AND the moisture arrive?

From a general search, the consensus seems to be that the over-wintering females don't emerge from winter hibernation pregnant, but I wonder about that. I also now wonder if these females are likely to ever bite in the spring, before the hungry children hatch out. My guess is, based upon what I'm seeing now, is no. My guess is they really are pregnant, possibly with just a few eggs, and this is their sole reason for hibernating, not to start a brand new life of feeding in the spring. This strategy would give them a head start, perhaps, over eggs that have been deposited in places that are not as suitable as newer places they find in the spring. The hibernating females form a sort of latent, flying egg reservoir, perhaps.

This would mean of course, that the hibernating females don't have to be good weather forecasters. They just have to find sufficient water before they die, not a meal.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Does anyone know what the CPC is thinking with this? Aren't we supposed to see some rain over TX and OK?



They have been completely wrong on that for the last 3-4 months.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC133-143-363-192015-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0015.120319T1911Z-120319T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
211 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF RANGER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HUCKABAY AROUND 235 PM...
GORDON AROUND 240 PM...
MORGAN MILL AROUND 250 PM...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 345 AND 383.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 9869 3252 9858 3265 9858 3266 9857
3281 9806 3251 9807 3234 9800 3226 9856
3221 9866 3242 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 237DEG 31KT 3237 9862

$$


82/JLD
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Does anyone know what the CPC is thinking with this? Aren't we supposed to see some rain over TX and OK?

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Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated: Mon Mar 19 19:22:03 UTC 2012




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Well, the old myth is that big droughts normally end with big floods. That looks to be holding true for Oklahoma/Texas/Louisiana this week:

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 191915Z - 192045Z

MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH A THREAT WOULD
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES.
CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS WOULD LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH
ISSUANCE.

EXTENSIVE COLD POOL PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...WITH
PERIPHERAL/CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
FAR NORTHEAST OK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF SHERMAN/MINERAL WELLS/BROWNWOOD
AS OF 19Z. THE TX PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED
TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION...WITH SOME RECENT UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION EVIDENT PER RADAR/SATELLITE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
BROWNWOOD/STEPHENVILLE TX AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THE 18Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH WAS INDICATIVE OF SEVERAL DEGREES C OF
WARMING AND ADDITIONAL CAPPING ALOFT /AROUND AND ABOVE 800 MB/ SINCE
THIS MORNING...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT ABATING
STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE COLD POOL MAY FAVOR STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER STORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED RECENTLY BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION TX...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TIED TO A NORTHEAST-SURGING JET
STREAK ALOFT/INCREASING DEEP ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.

..GUYER.. 03/19/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30460071 31030024 32249874 33449803 34539698 33759584
31609717 30030006 30460071
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Link Hummingbird Rescue Video
It's that time of year when accidents happen to newborn creatures, so please keep a look out and watch this!
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CNN, Doom?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just posted a Warning 15 minutes before the NWS posted using the GR2Analyst program....





You can follow my post at my Website if you wish!

Well done!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting StormTracker2K:
BREAKING NEWS

Peyton Manning going to the Broncos.


If he ends up having more neck problems, boy are they going to feel foolish
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I just posted a Warning 15 minutes before the NWS posted using the GR2Analyst program....





You can follow my post at my Website if you wish!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Pelliston, Michigan, hit 80 a short time ago, breaking the old record of 56 by 24 degrees--and there are still a few hours during which the temperature could climb higher still.

There may be dozens of daily records broken today by margins of 15-20 degrees or more.

That's unbelievable
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7828
Quoting SPLbeater:


no.....:(:(:(:(

I seen that if they got him, they would release my main man Tim Tebow next year! :(

:(


I am a big fan of Tim. I loved what he helped bring to my team last year and the way he went about it. Never me first, always someone else needs it kind of dude. I really respect that. Something you just don't see these days. I really wish they would keep him as a back-up but Elway will end up being a fart. Tebow will succeed wherever he goes. His intelligence and work ethic are second to none in this league.
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Quoting Levi32:


Two weeks are not much to go on. The datasets are always noisy, progressing in steps. If we get through mid-April with no appreciable warming, then that will be more interesting.


This.

The stair-stepping is more easily seen in the SOI values. I would expect this type of trend to continue into a weak El Nino phase at some point. The Euro even takes it into the moderate category by July, August, and September.

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Reporting from Hearne! Looks like instability is increasing across the area as the ML CAPE continues to go up.



There is also much in the way of low-level shear, some of which is mixing down to the surface, making it very windy here.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
Oh my god, this heatwave is epic. Up here near "America's icebox" (the Canadian side of the border in the same general area) we have absolutely destroyed our record for today which was 6C. It is currently 16C and warming. The geese have returned and when I left school today I thought about hurricanes as this is the temperature we normally receive in October and June.

It's crazy nonetheless. Never expected to be so uncomfortable wearing just a hoodie and a T-shirt for late March while walking home. :/
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Pelliston, Michigan, hit 80 a short time ago, breaking the old record of 56 by 24 degrees--and there are still a few hours during which the temperature could climb higher still.

There may be dozens of daily records broken today by margins of 15-20 degrees or more.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.