Nation's Icebox basks in 77°F warmth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 18, 2012

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Each year, when the list of coldest U.S. cities is compiled, International Falls, Minnesota regularly winds up at the top of the list, earning its title as "Icebox of the Nation". The city once hit -55°F (on January 6, 1909), and takes pride in the distinction of being the coldest city in the U.S., having trademarked the term "Icebox of the Nation" in 1948. The city recently defended the trademark against the town of Fraser, Colorado, which sought to usurp the title as the Nation's Icebox. But yesterday, International Falls set a truly phenomenal weather record for warmth. The city's temperature soared to 77°F, which was 42° above the average high temperature for the date. Not only was it the city's hottest March temperature on record by 4°, it was just 4° shy of yesterday's high in Miami, Florida. But what was truly amazing is that the 77°F high in International Falls beat the previous record for the date by 22°! I talked to Christopher C. Burt, wunderground's weather historian, and he couldn't recall seeing a station with a century-plus period of weather records break a daily record by such a wide margin (International Falls' records go back to 1895.) Yesterday's temperatures in International Falls were but one chapter in the on-going story of one of the most extreme meteorological events in U.S. history. Never before has such an extended period of extreme and record-breaking warm temperatures affected such a large portion of the U.S. in March, going back to the beginning of record keeping in the late 1800s. The record-breaking warmth will continue through Thursday, and I'll have much more to say in Monday's post.

Jeff Masters

Haze Night (sally)
This is not what the sky should look like this time of year, What will it look like in July?
Haze Night

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Quoting ScottLincoln:
Yikes... which program are you looking at that is $500 for full features?

Even GR2Analyst which is arguably the best out there is only $375 for the full-featured L2 data program and a dual-pol addon.


Actually, I heard GR2 was.
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Quoting TaylorSelseth:


And it's STILL friggin' hot in my apartment!!!

*mad*


Yuck. Who would have thought that a winter night in North Dakota would be stuffy and warm!

70 at midnight is probably warmer than most midnights in July in Fargo.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
At midnight Fargo ND was 70 degrees. This means they already broke their record high of 66 for March 19 which was set in 1910.

At midnight International Falls MN was 66 degrees. This means they already broke their record high of 60 for March 19 which was set in 1918.


And it's STILL friggin' hot in my apartment!!!

*mad*
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
Quoting KoritheMan:


And me.

I honestly don't care to. Well I do, but with a trip to Ohio planned, I'm not forking over $250 for that (plus an additional $250 if you want additional features, IIRC).
Yikes... which program are you looking at that is $500 for full features?

Even GR2Analyst which is arguably the best out there is only $375 for the full-featured L2 data program and a dual-pol addon.
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At midnight Fargo ND was 70 degrees. This means they already broke their record high of 66 for March 19 which was set in 1910.

At midnight International Falls MN was 66 degrees. This means they already broke their record high of 60 for March 19 which was set in 1918.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Somebody is really asleep at the SPC....NO Watches or Warning....UNREAL


SPC doesn't issue warnings.

SPC also coordinates with the local WFOs regarding watches; it may be that the local office and the SPC staff believe that severe weather will be mostly isolated and have decided against a watch for now. Just because there is a warning somewhere does not necessarily imply that there needs to be a watch.
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Quoting Patrap:
“Chaos is what we've lost touch with. This is why it is given a bad name. It is feared by the dominant archetype of our world, which is Ego, which clenches because its existance is defined in terms of control.”



You're scarin me there man, are you about about to go on a serial killing spree?


lol
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Quoting RitaEvac:
I see why the models are spitting out large rainfall amounts, the cutoff low is supposed to stall over TX, if that pans out, gonna be training rains and storms,some serious rain


It's one huge bowling ball of a low...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wxmod:


Moving away from fossil fuels is something Obama was hired to do. It didn't happen because big oil owns everything in this country, including so called investment firms that send everybody's retirement funds to Chinese sweat shops. If the government won't make a change this important happen, you and I HAVE TO. You can send big money a decisive message by cutting off their profits. There are a hundred million pieces of China-made frills that nobody needs. Save your money folks and quit contributing to your own destruction (and mine, thanks).


Well, President Obama greatly raised car mileage requirements, including pickups and SUVs for the first time.

He use a bunch of stimulus money to help build EV battery plants.

He's pushed wind and solar, making it easier to get permits and opened up lots of federal land for use.

He's pushed the military to work hard to use as much green energy and cut their oil use as possible.

He didn't sign a climate change bill. Republicans in Congress blocked it. Give President a Congress that gives a damn about our future and he'll be glad to sign a bill to fix stuff sooner.

IMO, we're on the cusp of a major change in how we generate electricity and how we drive. Solar panel prices are dropping very rapidly, in a couple of years installations should take off. In a couple of years EV battery capacity should greatly double and price take a big cut.

When those things happen we're going to see some much faster movement away from fossil fuels.

BTW, do you know that this last year we got only 39% of our electricity. Just a few years back we were getting around 55% from coal.



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Quoting jamesrainier:


How about removing that "No Watches in Effect" graphic?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Somebody is really asleep at the SPC....NO Watches or Warning....UNREAL


See 566. and 567. Watches have been up. Graphics are messed up. I emailed them. Not that that will fix it, but at least I tried.
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577. wxmod
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


If this comes true: Perfect storm!
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Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting washingtonian115:
Charley had made a right turn just in time and made landfall south of Tampa.Tampa was very lucky.Next time they might not be...



Oh trust me, I was 13 back then, and at that time I wanted a hurricane to hit because I loved the hype of storms but at that age I didn't really want to face the fact that hurricanes destroy lives as exciting as they are for weather geeks like me. However when Charley reached major status it scared the crap out of me and had me on my knees in prayer, unlike previously, I did not want that one to hit.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7266
572. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well we could raise taxes on items being made overseas or we could make it cheaper to produce stuff here. Problem with the first option is nobody wants to pay more, problem with the second option is we would have to basically throw out all our labor laws and higher standard of living.


I guess you're voting for doing nothing, which leads to huge storms or droughts battering your home town, maybe destroying your life. But, alas, when your house is splinters you will need to buy a new one, which will help the economy.
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571. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


I really understand your concern. We've got to do something about climate change or sentence those who follow us to terrible conditions.

But I really don't think China is the worst of the bad guys here, by any accounting.

The US emits an enormous amount of CO2 per person. We are doing less than is China to get our emissions under control. At this point were we to bring manufacturing back to our shores the world would probably see an increase in greenhouse gas emission, not a reduction.

Cutting our consumption of "frills" would help, but a no-frills campaign isn't likely to work. Far too many people can't seem to keep a clue in their heads.

Getting off fossil fuels ASAP is the real answer. We can manufacture "frills" with clean energy.


Moving away from fossil fuels is something Obama was hired to do. It didn't happen because big oil owns everything in this country, including so called investment firms that send everybody's retirement funds to Chinese sweat shops. If the government won't make a change this important happen, you and I HAVE TO. You can send big money a decisive message by cutting off their profits. There are a hundred million pieces of China-made frills that nobody needs. Save your money folks and quit contributing to your own destruction (and mine, thanks).
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I see why the models are spitting out large rainfall amounts, the cutoff low is supposed to stall over TX, if that pans out, gonna be training rains and storms,some serious rain
You guys need the rain, tho'.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 324
Quoting JRRP:


Subtropical system developing? Ohhhh boy...
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Quoting jamesrainier:


Somebody is really asleep at the SPC....NO Watches or Warning....UNREAL
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Tor watch just came out. No graphic yet

Add:


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 82
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.


TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS HAVE RAPIDLY FORMED ALONG THE
DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE OVER WEST TX. DESPITE THE RATHER STRONG
CAP...IT APPEARS THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS SUFFICIENT TO UPGRADE THE
ONGOING SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TX.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HART
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Sure is alot of upper air energy out there...



19, Do you know about theta e? I'm trying to learn more about it.

Quoting jamesrainier:


Severe Thunderstorm watch 81 went up at 10:50 pm. Sometimes their graphics get behind.
Add:

Here's the text

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM UNTIL
500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE. STORMS ARE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AMPLE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP. GIVEN
THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE FORCING AND THE STRENGTHENING CAP...BELIEVE
THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAP STRENGTH AND STORM TRENDS FOR
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO RISK.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HART
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well we could raise taxes on items being made overseas or we could make it cheaper to produce stuff here. Problem with the first option is nobody wants to pay more, problem with the second option is we would have to basically throw out all our labor laws and higher standard of living.


There's a third option. Get smarter.

There are things that we can manufacture here and be competitive. Already many of the cars we drive are made here even though they might have Japanese or German names. Sometimes shipping costs make it cheaper to build locally and pay more for labor.

It's getting more likely that we'll have great electric car options in the next 2-5 years. We can build the batteries and the cars here. Remember, a bunch of the stimulus money went to build battery plants, so we're ready to go.

Some plants are moving back. If you've got a product that you need to update quickly and requires little unskilled labor the US can be competitive. It takes a lot of time and some expense to keep flying engineers and designers back and forth to make product updates.

If you're doing a lot of custom work it can be cheaper to do it closer to your market.

I think we've just about reached the end of our great manufacturing decline. The Chinese market has matured and their workers want a better life. Chinese prices are on the rise and they are beginning to ease up on the undervaluation of their currency.

I doubt we'll get back clothing factories and other lower-skilled manufacturing. That sort of stuff will move from China to other parts of Asia and off to Africa. But we should be able to find things that we can make and make competitively.

---

Actually I think we'll get a share of the clothing manufacturing a few decades from now when the standard of living has improved all around the world.

We'll make the clothes we wear using either the labor of those who didn't bother finishing school or, perhaps, robots.
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Sure is alot of upper air energy out there...

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1109 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERN TERRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1106 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
LOCKETVILLE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH OF BROWNFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LOCKETVILLE AND
ROPESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW!
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Quoting Patrap:
Here?

Not like they were earlier.

Things have changed for the better seems here.



Long term...


All of the medium range guidance...emcwf...GFS...CMC...indicate
that the closed low will move more to the north on Wednesday as
opposed to the easterly movement forecast the last few days. Given
the great model agreement on this trend...have decided to go with
it for this forecast period. This has drastically changed the
forecast from Wednesday into the weekend. Have had to lower precipitation
chances for Wednesday from categorical and likely to only chance.
Additionally...there will be gradient across the County Warning Area with far
western zones have higher rain chances than eastern zones. This
will hold true into Thursday...as the upper low tracks into
Oklahoma and Kansas...and a weak frontal boundary stalls over
western Louisiana. With less forcing throughout the atmospheric
column...weaker thermodynamic profiles due to less cooling
aloft...and less overall shear in the low levels in place...the
threat for severe weather looks to be lower for Wednesday and
Thursday. However...there could be some locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday night and Thursday as precipitable water values increase to around 1.5
inches. This rainfall threat could lead to some localized flooding
issues with cells train over the same region.


Seems like they changed the temperature forecast too. We were supposed to get down into the upper 40s after the frontal passage.
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time for bed
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night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Here?

Not like they were earlier.

Things have changed for the better seems here.



Long term...


All of the medium range guidance...emcwf...GFS...CMC...indicate
that the closed low will move more to the north on Wednesday as
opposed to the easterly movement forecast the last few days. Given
the great model agreement on this trend...have decided to go with
it for this forecast period. This has drastically changed the
forecast from Wednesday into the weekend. Have had to lower precipitation
chances for Wednesday from categorical and likely to only chance.
Additionally...there will be gradient across the County Warning Area with far
western zones have higher rain chances than eastern zones. This
will hold true into Thursday...as the upper low tracks into
Oklahoma and Kansas...and a weak frontal boundary stalls over
western Louisiana. With less forcing throughout the atmospheric
column...weaker thermodynamic profiles due to less cooling
aloft...and less overall shear in the low levels in place...the
threat for severe weather looks to be lower for Wednesday and
Thursday. However...there could be some locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday night and Thursday as precipitable water values increase to around 1.5
inches. This rainfall threat could lead to some localized flooding
issues with cells train over the same region.
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Expecting high water Pat?
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Quoting TampaSpin:



THIS IS REALLY GONNA HURT....NORTH of VALENTINES, Nebraska


That, seems from archive, was a separate cell from the one that caused the tornado near N Platte. This one popped kind of NW of North Platte and went into SD. Saw this one last on radar over Mission, SD. Tor warned and a confirmed tor on the ground to the south of Mission.
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Watch has gone out for West TX

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
I see why the models are spitting out large rainfall amounts, the cutoff low is supposed to stall over TX, if that pans out, gonna be training rains and storms,some serious rain
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Amazing how they do that, isn't it? SPC says retreated dryline is starting to interact with the pacific cold front.
Click image for text.


Yeppers
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Bit of convergence out there on some sort of boundary (haven't looked to see what it is yet, probably a dry line or a cold front). With PWs below one inch, the moisture is somewhat lacking, but relatively high CAPE approaching 3000 J/kg and favorable lapse rates make up for that.








Hey, 19!
I see you're onto it. :)
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Line out in west TX has come outta nowhere




Amazing how they do that, isn't it? SPC says retreated dryline is starting to interact with the pacific cold front.
Click image for text.
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510. Patrap 2:34 AM GMT on March 19, 2012 +0
Quoting Birthmark:

The Ides of March have come...

...and gone.


Shakespeare is eternal.


..and I can count.

: )
Action: Quote | Ignore User



they ride a little late thats all
they approach as we type
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting RitaEvac:
Line out in west TX has come outta nowhere

Bit of convergence out there on some sort of boundary (haven't looked to see what it is yet, probably a dry line or a cold front). With PWs below one inch, the moisture is somewhat lacking, but relatively high CAPE approaching 3000 J/kg and favorable lapse rates make up for that.







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I tell you what, once this system taps the gulf, all hell is gonna break loose on radars
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Line out in west TX has come outta nowhere



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Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah I'm sure those programs are great but it's not worth it for me. Wouldn't make my parents pay for that either.


I do just fine with operational tools. Apparently, so did the NWS (before the advent of such sophistication).
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Quoting dogsgomoo:


Any evident death and destruction fits into a "nature is evil" narrative. I'm really not sure who's benefiting from this narrative but it's there. The news seems to exist to breed a controlled and targeted numbing fear of everything and everyone.
What I find curious is that given about 10 min googling I can't find a primary source for this. Also info on who the heck's Kendra Reed is rather sketchy.
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earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes
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Quoting KoritheMan:


And me.

I honestly don't care to. Well I do, but with a trip to Ohio planned, I'm not forking over $250 for that (plus an additional $250 if you want additional features, IIRC).
Yeah I'm sure those programs are great but it's not worth it for me. Wouldn't make my parents pay for that either.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.