Nation's Icebox basks in 77°F warmth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:08 PM GMT on March 18, 2012

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Each year, when the list of coldest U.S. cities is compiled, International Falls, Minnesota regularly winds up at the top of the list, earning its title as "Icebox of the Nation". The city once hit -55°F (on January 6, 1909), and takes pride in the distinction of being the coldest city in the U.S., having trademarked the term "Icebox of the Nation" in 1948. The city recently defended the trademark against the town of Fraser, Colorado, which sought to usurp the title as the Nation's Icebox. But yesterday, International Falls set a truly phenomenal weather record for warmth. The city's temperature soared to 77°F, which was 42° above the average high temperature for the date. Not only was it the city's hottest March temperature on record by 4°, it was just 4° shy of yesterday's high in Miami, Florida. But what was truly amazing is that the 77°F high in International Falls beat the previous record for the date by 22°! I talked to Christopher C. Burt, wunderground's weather historian, and he couldn't recall seeing a station with a century-plus period of weather records break a daily record by such a wide margin (International Falls' records go back to 1895.) Yesterday's temperatures in International Falls were but one chapter in the on-going story of one of the most extreme meteorological events in U.S. history. Never before has such an extended period of extreme and record-breaking warm temperatures affected such a large portion of the U.S. in March, going back to the beginning of record keeping in the late 1800s. The record-breaking warmth will continue through Thursday, and I'll have much more to say in Monday's post.

Jeff Masters

Haze Night (sally)
This is not what the sky should look like this time of year, What will it look like in July?
Haze Night

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40. Skyepony (Mod)
I've been almost surprised at the number of people here in FL that aren't even noticing this.

Thanks for including the sun pics. The expanded sun disks near the horizon speaks volumes about the amount of heat in the atmosphere. This bodes bad for the summer ahead.
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Quoting ClimateChange:
This is crazy. Using the forecast values from Weather Underground for KTOL (Toledo Express Airport), KCLE (Cleveland-Hopkins International Airport), and KORD (Chicago O'Hare International Airport), we get monthly mean temps of 54.9 at TOL, 53.9 at CLE, and 57.1 at ORD through the morning of the 28th. That would be 7.1 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at TOL (and would also place as the third warmest April), 4.4 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at CLE (and would also place as the fifth warmest April), and a whopping 8.5 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at ORD (and also 0.1 warmer than the WARMEST APRIL on record!).

Now, the Best Forecast numbers do seem a little unrealistically high. This is especially the case this weekend when clouds and showers will keep daytime maxima supressed. But there is some support for a return to 70s (possible 80s) next week as another ridge moves overhead. What the heck is going on?

See your handle, for a hint to the answer....

:):))
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Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, very strange weather, indeed, as we barely had winter in Central Florida and now we are into spring.
Interesting set up for the coming week, too.

Hopefully, this will not bring another series of destructive tornadoes as it moves east.
ty for that pic, it sure looks scary
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Hmmm maybe something is wrong but that's what wunderground is showing for NYC (hunter college-upper east side)currently, for me.
Member Since: February 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Current Mayan Date

baktun 12 katun 19 tun 19 uinal 4 kin 2
Haab: 10 Cumku
Tzolkin: 12 Ik
Mayan epoch: 11 Aug, 3114 B.C.E.

...date based on local time 9:35:41am, Sun Mar 18, 2012
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What? That's not right.

Today: Cloudy early, then clearing, with a high near 65. South wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.

Monday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming south between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly before 2pm. Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Areas of fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Wednesday: Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 72.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%


He's using the Wunderground Best Forecast figures, I think.
Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 245
This is crazy. Using the forecast values from Weather Underground for KTOL (Toledo Express Airport), KCLE (Cleveland-Hopkins International Airport), and KORD (Chicago O'Hare International Airport), we get monthly mean temps of 54.9 at TOL, 53.9 at CLE, and 57.1 at ORD through the morning of the 28th. That would be 7.1 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at TOL (and would also place as the third warmest April), 4.4 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at CLE (and would also place as the fifth warmest April), and a whopping 8.5 degrees warmer than the warmest March on record at ORD (and also 0.1 warmer than the WARMEST APRIL on record!).

Now, the Best Forecast numbers do seem a little unrealistically high. This is especially the case this weekend when clouds and showers will keep daytime maxima supressed. But there is some support for a return to 70s (possible 80s) next week as another ridge moves overhead. What the heck is going on?
Member Since: September 8, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 245
Good morning, very strange weather, indeed, as we barely had winter in Central Florida and now we are into spring.
Interesting set up for the coming week, too.

Hopefully, this will not bring another series of destructive tornadoes as it moves east.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11347
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not sure, though there's generally a more pro-science take on things there, and less pushback from fossil fuel interests eager to hide the truth at all costs. At any rate, most of Europe has had a warmer than normal winter, and there have been hundreds of high temperature records broken there over the past few weeks, so it would be interesting to know.


Talking to the locals in Winter Park Co. they say they
haven't seen anything like it in 30 years that they have
been there. One lady told me this is the way it looked
June 1st last year.
I wonder what next winter holds?
Will the the talk of GW disappear into the cold or will
we have more of the same hot temps.

BTW the skiing did suck
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Quoting tramp96:


They had a cold snap that killed 60 people in the last week of
Jan.

That cold weather extended all the way south to Tripoli, where they had snow for the first time in many years.
The canals in Venice were frozen, the Coloseum in Rome was covered in ice.

etc etc

Climate Change.
An apparent overall warming, with unusual severe weather of all kinds everywhere.

Going to be an interesting Summer!
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Quoting wilsongti45:
High temperature forecast for NYC:

Monday-70
Tuesday-68
Wednesday-72
Thursday-86
Friday-73

The forecast of low temperatures is even more impressive...

Monday-57
Tuesday-59
Wednesday-61
Thursday-61
Friday-59

What? That's not right.

Today: Cloudy early, then clearing, with a high near 65. South wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 52. South wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.

Monday: A slight chance of showers after 2pm. Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming south between 7 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly before 2pm. Areas of fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Areas of fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Wednesday: Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 72.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

Friday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%
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What scares me the most is this, march and april can be very unusual some years, right now the temps are high, all the plants and tree's are blooming, the ground is drying out, and what happens IF..a surprise freeze comes down the pike? what happens is..we Lose alot, once in bloom the plants and tree's cant withstand a freeze, and what about the crops?..something to watch out for even if right now its unlikely to happen
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Quoting greentortuloni:


I'd guess the majority of people believe in it:

25% believe strongly
25% believe
15% probable
20% undecided
10% doubt
5% vote Lega Nord sowhatever mafia/the trout tells them.

But that is based on my circle of friends/aquaintences. No idea what the real figures are.



They had a cold snap that killed 60 people in the last week of
Jan.
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Quoting percylives:
Thanks, Doc.

All this is very scary even to those of us who had an inkling it was somewhere around the corner.

Rest is a repost from last blog (last comment).

A few observations from the area.

The tulip poplar trees of central VA are leafing out.

The number of butterflies and moths flying around here in central VA is characteristic of May, not March. Here come the caterpillars.

My fig bushes are starting to grow the spring figs and their terminal buds are opening.

More importantly, I've already eaten my first asparagus shoot (about 3 weeks early according to the local county extension agent). There will be several more on the dinner table this evening.

Even Garrison Keillor mentioned the weather in his Prairie Home Companion show yesterday. He said something about the March weather causing the residents of Lake Wobegon to instinctively know they were in a spot they shouldn't be in, like that room in the house full of antiques you were forbidden to enter when you were a child. The unseasonable warmth is now making it into the meme of our culture. This is a major step in the acceptance that something strange is afoot. And that is a major step in addressing the possible causes of this exceptional warmth including excess fossilized carbon in the atmosphere.

As you might have surmised, I'm with the folks at Lake Wobegon. We have our hands in Mother Nature's cookie jar and a likely paddling is in our future.

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High temperature forecast for NYC:

Monday-70
Tuesday-68
Wednesday-72
Thursday-86
Friday-73

The forecast of low temperatures is even more impressive...

Monday-57
Tuesday-59
Wednesday-61
Thursday-61
Friday-59
Member Since: February 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
Quoting tramp96:
If you took a poll on GW in Europe how do you think
it would come out?
Not sure, though there's generally a more pro-science take on things there, and less pushback from fossil fuel interests eager to hide the truth at all costs. At any rate, most of Europe has had a warmer than normal winter, and there have been hundreds of high temperature records broken there over the past few weeks, so it would be interesting to know.
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Quoting tramp96:
If you took a poll on GW in Europe how do you think
it would come out?


I'd guess the majority of people believe in it:

25% believe strongly
25% believe
15% probable
20% undecided
10% doubt
5% vote Lega Nord sowhatever mafia/the trout tells them.

But that is based on my circle of friends/aquaintences. No idea what the real figures are.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you took a poll on GW in Europe how do you think
it would come out?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
My initial draft of that comment contained the disclaimer that high temperature records are generally easier to surpass by a wider margin in winter than they are during the summer, simply because of the lack of available "headroom" in the summer. But then I omitted it, as the post I was quoting hadn't contained it; the writer was simply speculating "what if", not attempting to say, "This would happen".

Where in Canada are you?


Ah then it's all good. I also speculate what such a warm spell would be like in July. It really puts things in perspective...

I live in the suburbs of Montreal, on its south shore.
If I'm not mistaken, you are somewhere in Ontario. (but that is quite a statement when you consider how large Ontario is)
Where exactly?
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"Not only was it the city's hottest March temperature on record by 4°"
============================================
Someone needs to correct Wikipedia....
Wikipedia says the highest temp for March in International Falls was 83F

Link
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Quoting JeffMasters:


I'll talk about this more Monday. It's an unknown, since we've never seen anything like this. I suspect that the odds are that a record heat wave in March is not going to cause major problems. The main risk is that it dries out the soil and increases the chances of a damaging summer drought. The great Russian drought and heat wave of 2010--the deadliest heat wave in history, with 56,000 deaths--was made possible by unusually warm and dry conditions in the spring, which dried out the soil and pre-conditioned the atmosphere for summer drought.

Jeff Masters

Many thanks.
Venturing into New Territory is always fun.
Or it's supposed to be, anyway.
I'm not sure I want to go along for this ride.....
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Quoting SteveDa1:


Although there is nothing wrong with speculating, there is a limit to the amount of warmth summer can produce. In spring, it can be very cold but also very warm. The amount of heat needed to produce a warm spell of this magnitude in the summer is probably impossible in our current times. There is a reason why, in the summer, records never get broken by more than a few degrees, if so rarely, because warmth is king all the time.

For example, in Montreal, Quebec, the warmest day on record is 37.6°C with is only about 12 degrees C above the normal. The warmest March temperature on record is 25.6°C and that is about 20 degrees Celsius above the normal.
My initial draft of that comment contained the disclaimer that high temperature records are generally easier to surpass by a wider margin in winter than they are during the summer, simply because of the lack of available "headroom" in the summer. But then I omitted it, as the post I was quoting hadn't contained it; the writer was simply speculating "what if", not attempting to say, "This would happen".

Where in Canada are you?
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17. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting pottery:
Dr. Masters, a question was asked in your last blog.
Had to do with "how has this extended heatwave affected the Breadbasket of America" .

Any ideas?

Anyone??


I'll talk about this more Monday. It's an unknown, since we've never seen anything like this. I suspect that the odds are that a record heat wave in March is not going to cause major problems. The main risk is that it dries out the soil and increases the chances of a damaging summer drought. The great Russian drought and heat wave of 2010--the deadliest heat wave in history, with 56,000 deaths--was made possible by unusually warm and dry conditions in the spring, which dried out the soil and pre-conditioned the atmosphere for summer drought.

Jeff Masters
The daily mean (average of high and low) temperatures in Chicago over the past seven days have exceeded the normal mean by the following margins: 19, 23, 22, 27, 27, 26, 32. Yikes. And from the previous blog: things are only expected to cool off a little bit on the 8-14 day period (that is, through the end of March):

uh-oh

uh-oh
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That 77 degree high in International Falls is absolutely amazing; if breaking an old daily record by 22 degrees seems surreal, it's only because it is.

I read one blog post yesterday speculating if something like this were to happen in, say, late July; there'd be a week or more of 100 degree temperatures throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and surrounding areas.


I would like to say something, if I may...

Although there is nothing wrong with speculating, there is a limit to the amount of warmth summer can produce. In spring, it can be very cold but also very warm. The amount of heat needed to produce a warm spell of this magnitude in the summer is probably impossible in our current times. There is a reason why, in the summer, records never get broken by more than a few degrees, if so rarely, because warmth is king all the time.

For example, in Montreal, Quebec, the warmest day on record is 37.6C with is only about 12 degrees C above the normal. The warmest March temperature on record is 25.6C and that is about 20 degrees Celsius above the normal.
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Thanks, Doc.

All this is very scary even to those of us who had an inkling it was somewhere around the corner.

Rest is a repost from last blog (last comment).

A few observations from the area.

The tulip poplar trees of central VA are leafing out.

The number of butterflies and moths flying around here in central VA is characteristic of May, not March. Here come the caterpillars.

My fig bushes are starting to grow the spring figs and their terminal buds are opening.

More importantly, I've already eaten my first asparagus shoot (about 3 weeks early according to the local county extension agent). There will be several more on the dinner table this evening.

Even Garrison Keillor mentioned the weather in his Prairie Home Companion show yesterday. He said something about the March weather causing the residents of Lake Wobegon to instinctively know they were in a spot they shouldn't be in, like that room in the house full of antiques you were forbidden to enter when you were a child. The unseasonable warmth is now making it into the meme of our culture. This is a major step in the acceptance that something strange is afoot. And that is a major step in addressing the possible causes of this exceptional warmth including excess fossilized carbon in the atmosphere.

As you might have surmised, I'm with the folks at Lake Wobegon. We have our hands in Mother Nature's cookie jar and a likely paddling is in our future.

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We can rest assured, however, that this has NOTHING to do with that crazy global warming stuff Al Gore tricked us into.
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wow...
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Good morning to all. pottery,79F and sunny in San Juan,however some high clouds sometimes block all the sunshine,but with low swells,is a great day to be at the beach.

On another topic,it has really cooled in the equatorial Pacific area of Nino 1-2 west of SouthAmerica from last month to right now.

As of March 17:



On Febuary 17:

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.8S 140.7E or 80 km north of Karumba and 160 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The low is expected to move to the southwest over the next 24 to 36 hours over Gulf of Carpentaria waters where it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning.

GALES are expected to affect coastal areas between the NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw during Monday morning. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone moves further westwards.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between the NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw.

People between NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2:00 am EST [1:30 am CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Pormpuraaw, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.0S 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.5S 140.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.9S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.0S 143.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.6 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 3.0. MET and PT suggest 2.5. Final Dvorak based on MET and PT.

Convection has become more organize over the last 6 to 12 hours with the broad circulation clearly visible on radar. The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will likely adopt a southwest track on Monday as a result of a mid-level trough over southern Queensland weakening, and a mid-level ridge over the Coral Sea developing slightly.

Overall, the low is in a favorable environment for further development and is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning, though proximity to land could be a limiting factor.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
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That 77 degree high in International Falls is absolutely amazing; if breaking an old daily record by 22 degrees seems surreal, it's only because it is.

I read one blog post yesterday speculating if something like this were to happen in, say, late July; there'd be a week or more of 100 degree temperatures throughout Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and surrounding areas.

The "Nation's Icebox" is on "defrost". ;-)
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¡Hace mucho calor!
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Expecting a high of 20C/68F today here. Which is only 17C or 31F above the normal. Even more incredible is the long range: 15C, 23C, 23C, 21C, 13C.

If all this holds true, This march will beat the record of 20C days by 1 day. And we aren't even done yet.

Here are some numbers for you to feast on (if you like numbers as much as me)...
Record-keeping began in 1942

Top 3 Marches with # of days > or = to 20C (top 5 warmest march days in bold)

1945 with 3: (26th, 28th, 25.6C (warmest march day on record) and 29th)
1946 with 2: (28th, 21.7C (tied 5th warmest) and 29th, 23.9C (second warmest))
1962 (30th), 1977 (30th, 21.7C (tied 5th warmest)), 1986 (30th, 22.6C (3rd warmest)), 1998 (30th), 2006 (30th, 22.0C (4th warmest)) with 1.

Top 4 Marches with # of days > or = to 10C

1st: 1945, 1946 and 2010 tied with 11.
2nd: 1995 with 9.
3rd: 1987 and 2000 tied with 8.
4th: 1977 with 7.

2012 so far: 5 (the forecast tells us that this number will be at 12 in 7 days and then what?)


Browsing the numbers, we find that the 26th of march in 1945 is the earliest day on record where the thermometer surpassed 20C. Today, the 18th of march, as previously stated, the forecast calls for a high of 20C. This would break the record by an unbelievable 8 days! What's even more appealing is the fact that all possible 4 days above 20C this week would break the record for the earliest day above 20C on record. Astonishing!

Longest March streak of 20C days is 2 with 1945 and 1946 tied. The forecast calls for 3 consecutive days at or above 20C from Tuesday to Thursday. Weather can change but this end-of-spring-like warmth is surely exceptional nonetheless.



Posted this in the old blog but since it took me about 40 minutes, I thought I'd post it here too. :)
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next 5 days the GFS forecasting rain totals of 6+ inches for areas of OK, TX, and AR.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
good morning folks! 70 here right now going up in the 80's once again, folks here are starting to worry a little about the coming hurricane season with the warm water temps, guess we shall see huh, well have a great day everyone
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it has been 80F here or higher for the last 6 days in NC.

Wonder what them icebox natives are thinkin with this warmth lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Thanks doc!
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Dr. Masters, a question was asked in your last blog.
Had to do with "how has this extended heatwave affected the Breadbasket of America" .

Any ideas?

Anyone??
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A 77 degree Icebox?
42 degrees above what it should be?
Something is not right with that!
I wonder what comes next?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.