Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012

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For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Lightning 2 (barbtrek)
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Lightning 2
Setting Sol (minnesotamom)
Setting Sol
()

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394. SteveDa1
1:27 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Expecting a high of 20°C/68°F today here. Which is only 17°C or 31°F above the normal. Even more incredible is the long range: 15°C, 23°C, 23°C, 21°C, 13°C.

If all this holds true, This march will beat the record of 20°C+ days by 1 day. And we aren't done yet, are we?

Here are some numbers (record-keeping began in 1942) for you to feast on (if you like numbers as much as me)...


Top 3 Marches with # of days > or = to 20°C (top 5 warmest march days in bold)

1945 with 3: (26th, 28th, 25.6°C (warmest march day on record) and 29th)
1946 with 2: (28th, 21.7°C (tied 5th warmest) and 29th, 23.9°C (second warmest))
1962 (30th), 1977 (30th, 21.7°C (tied 5th warmest)), 1986 (30th, 22.6°C (3rd warmest)), 1998 (30th), 2006 (30th, 22.0°C (4th warmest)) with 1.

Top 4 Marches with # of days > or = to 10°C

1st: 1945, 1946 and 2010 tied with 11.
2nd: 1995 with 9.
3rd: 1987 and 2000 tied with 8.
4th: 1977 with 7.

2012 so far: 5 (the forecast tells us that this number will be at 12 in 7 days and then what?)


Browsing the numbers, we find that the 26th of march in 1945 is the earliest day on record where the thermometer surpassed 20°C. Today, the 18th of march, as previously stated, the forecast calls for a high of 20°C. This would break the record by an unbelievable 8 days! What's even more appealing is the fact that all possible 4 days above 20°C this week would break the record for the earliest day above 20°C on record. Astonishing!

Longest streak in March of 20°C+ days is 2 with 1945 and 1946 tied. The forecast calls for 3 consecutive days at or above 20°C from Tuesday to Thursday. Weather can change but this end-of-spring-like warmth is surely exceptional nonetheless.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
393. percylives
1:24 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
A few observations from the area.

The tulip poplar trees of central VA are leafing out.

The number of butterflies and moths flying around here in central VA is characteristic of May, not March. Here come the caterpillars.

My fig bushes are starting to grow the spring figs and their terminal buds are opening.

More importantly, I've already eaten my first asparagus shoot (about 3 weeks early according to the local county extension agent). There will be several more on the dinner table this evening.

Even Garrison Keillor mentioned the weather in his Prairie Home Companion show yesterday. He said something about the March weather causing the residents of Lake Wobegon to instinctively know they were in a spot they shouldn't be in, like that room in the house full of antiques you were forbidden to enter when you were a child. The unseasonable warmth is now making it into the meme of our culture. This is a major step in the acceptance that something strange is afoot. And that is a major step in addressing the possible causes of this exceptional warmth including excess fossilized carbon in the atmosphere.

As you might have surmised, I'm with the folks at Lake Wobegon. We have our hands in Mother Nature's cookie jar and a likely paddling is in our future.

Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
392. pottery
1:16 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
New Blog is up....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24028
391. SPLbeater
1:15 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
mornin all. had a NICE thunderstorm come over about 3 AM last night...good show out the window with lightning, then a dramatic 10 second rumble after lol. all i could think is "Now why cant something like this occur when its daytime..."
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
390. Neapolitan
1:09 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting percylives:
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.
HAMWeather gets their numbers directly from the NCDC site, and that site crashed on Friday evening. It started acting funny early in the day; I have to assume it was overload. A major site change last summer added a lot of overhead by forcing major calculations to be made each and every time the page was loaded. The change made the information more valuable and user-friendly, but it came at the expense of performance.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
389. pottery
12:48 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting percylives:
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.


I was wondering that myself.
Dread Times !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24028
388. percylives
12:44 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Interesting records at HAMweather for the last two days. At this time they are saying "No Record Events Received". Since with the heat wave we know this in incorrect we must assume their record receiving and recording system is completely overwhelmed.

For the past week they state there has been 10 low temperature records tied or beaten in the continental US and 1381 high temperature records tied or beaten, a mind-blowing 138 to 1 ratio.

How much further into the unknown will this ratio be pushed when the final tally of this week from the future is recorded?

And of much greater concern, how much has this week from the future affected the biosphere today? And has the great bread-basket of the American heartland been weakened in any meaningful way?

High on my list is getting the sweet potatoes in this year. I might even grow a few extra.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
387. pottery
12:39 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Good Morning. From 11n 61w.
Bright and hazy here, with a small chance of showers.
Lots of moist stuff over Venezuela and Columbia and further south but unlikely we will see much of that.

Going to be a Hot One.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24028
386. GeorgiaStormz
12:06 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Was in a 4.3 here in GA. I think it was back in 2003. The people who lived next door thought there house was falling of the hill into the river lol.
and i slept right through it, so i never felt 1. Anybody still going with 3/22 for the next one? ;)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
385. bappit
12:05 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
411 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK IMPULSES PASS OVERHEAD TODAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF TO THE WEST. WITHOUT ANY SFC FOCUSING MECHANISM TODAY...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OTHER THAN SOME ISO/SCT NUISANCE SHRAS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT AND LLVL WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY (WILL PROBABLY NEED A WIND ADVSY). STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP TO DEAL WITH BUT DO ANTICIPATE MORE COVERAGE - PROBABLY SCT IN NATURE - MON AFTN COMPARED TO TODAY.

STILL LOOKING FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST MON NIGHT AND MOVE WNW-ESE ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY IN THE 6AM-3PM TIMEFRAME ON TUE. VERY STR0NG LLVL JET (ESP N/NW AREAS WHERE GFS HAS SOME 70KT H85 WINDS FCST AT 12Z TUE)...HIGH HELICITIES AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AND SOME LOCALIZED TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL. THREAT STILL LOOKS HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 - BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ANYWHERE. ALL FORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLAY WITH WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND TORNADOES/HAIL SECONDARY. ASSUMING THIS LINE CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE...FEEL THE FCSTED 1-2" AVERAGE AND LOCALIZED 3-4" STILL LOOKS GOOD.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5953
384. caribbeantracker01
11:39 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is the forecast for pressures being high or low. This one is a 180 degrees opposite from last year when it had lower pressures in the Atlantic and that was spot on.


yoo but remember how much MAJOR hurricanes the eastern pacific had?
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
383. AussieStorm
11:34 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Roadhouse manager tells of wild cyclone

THE manager of a Pilbara roadhouse has described how wild winds shook the building and water poured in everywhere as tropical cyclone Lua roared in from the sea.

Janet Robb, who runs the Pardoo Roadhouse with her partner Ian Badger, said the two of them sat out the worst of the storm with their pet dog overnight and were relieved to be alive.

Their property, on the Great Northern Highway 150km east of Port Hedland, was in the path of the category 4 cyclone as it swept onto land packing 250km/h winds and driving rain.

"It was absolutely horrific," Ms Robb told AAP after the cyclone passed.

"There was half an hour there where you thought, 'Is this ever going to end? Is the roof going to lift? Is the wall going to cave in?'

"That's what it felt like because everything was moving."

Ms Robb said all the trees in the grounds were down, the fuel bowsers had been blown over and the roadhouse had been damaged.
"The water came in every door, every window seal, it just bubbled in, it's unbelievable.

"Every light fitting, the water had seeped in so God knows what the roof looks like."

Ms Robb said the storm was very noisy with branches coming off trees and banging into the building.

"It was pretty wild. At least we're alive. These things are sent to try us."

Ms Robb said the roadhouse dongas appeared to be all still standing but they would not be able to assess the full damage until daylight.

She said she didn't plan to stay around for the next cyclone.

WA's Fire and Emergency Services Association (FESA) said Lua was weakening as it headed south but high winds and heavy rain still posed a threat as the cyclone headed towards the community of Nullagine after passing Marble Bar.

Annabelle Coppin of Yarrie Homestead about 90km northeast of Marble Bar said Lua went right over the cattle station and it blew hard for about three hours, leaving a trail of damage.

Roofing iron was blown off machinery sheds, windmills and cattle crates were bowled over, many trees were down but the cattle should be fine, she said.

"We've got a massive mess to clean up, a few buildings that look a bit sad and a sad-looking garden."

"It will probably take at least 12 months to get back to where we were a couple of hours ago but we live in a cyclone area so that's what happens."

Nullagine was on red alert on last night as the cyclone approached, meaning residents had to stay indoors and not be out in the open or driving vehicles.

A relocation centre at Nullagine was expecting to shelter around 110 people as the cyclone passed directly through.

Lua was expected to continue south towards the larger town of Newman but it might only be a category 1 system or less when it arrives today.

Port Hedland residents experienced strong gusting winds up to 150km/h but the red alert was lifted on yesterday afternoon.

A range of flood warnings are in place in the Pilbara, Kimberley, the Gascoyne, the Midwest and the Goldfield regions because of heavy rainfalls associated with the cyclone.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
382. AussieStorm
11:33 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
'We've come out of it pretty well', says FESA chief

RESIDENTS in northwest WA have had a lucky escape after Tropical Cyclone Lua slammed into the coastline with winds of up to 220kmh, but left minimal damage in its wake.

Fire and Emergency Services Authority spokesman Les Hayter said today that coordination centres in Broome and Karratha had been closed, emergency workers were being demobilised, and control of the region handed back to local authorities as Lua fizzled out.

While severe weather warnings remained in some parts of the Gascoyne district, no-one had been reported injured or missing, and damage had been limited mainly to roofs and minor flooding.

Most sealed roads in the area have been reopened. At 11am today, the Bureau of Meteorology said Lua was 65km north of Wiluna and moving south at about 35km/h.

It had lost most of its intensity and was no longer a cyclone after crossing the Pilbara coast as a category four system about 3pm on Saturday.

"We've come out of it pretty well," Mr Hayter said by phone from Karratha.

"It was potentially a category five cyclone when it crossed the coast but it didn't get to that level, thank goodness.

"The community was prepared and heeded our warnings and stayed inside on red alert, but there was an element of luck.''

Mr Hayter said "every station and community in the region had been contacted", and everyone accounted for.

The Pardoo Roadhouse, about 150km east of Port Hedland near the coast, had been worst hit.

"They had a fair bit of a hammering there,'' Mr Hayter said.
He said eight search and rescue personnel had been sent to the area to assess any danger and conduct temporary repairs.

Pardoo Roadhouse manager Janet Robb earlier said she and her partner Ian Badger were relieved to be alive after sheltering from the storm with their dog.

"It was absolutely horrific,'' she said after the cyclone passed.

"There was half an hour there where you thought, 'Is this ever going to end? Is the roof going to lift? Is the wall going to cave in?'"

Ms Robb said all the trees in the grounds were down, fuel bowsers had been blown over and the roadhouse had been damaged.

"The water came in every door, every window seal, it just bubbled in, it's unbelievable," she said.

"It was pretty wild. At least we're alive."

Ms Robb said she didn't plan to stay around for the next cyclone.

Annabelle Coppin of Yarrie Homestead, about 90km northeast of Marble Bar, said Lua went right over the cattle station and blew hard for about three hours, leaving a trail of damage.

"We've got a massive mess to clean up, a few buildings that look a bit sad and a sad-looking garden,'' she said.

"It will probably take at least 12 months to get back to where we were a couple of hours ago but we live in a cyclone area so that's what happens."

Port Hedland residents experienced strong gusting winds up to 150km/h but the town escaped major damage.

Heavy rain and winds of up to 100km/h are expected to persist in the eastern Gascoyne, western interior and northern Goldfields areas until evening.

A helicopter conducting reconnaissance over Wallal Downs Station had a hard landing on Sunday afternoon, but the four people aboard were not injured.

The chopper damaged its tail boom during landing about 3km northeast of Port Hedland, but the pilot, two FESA personnel and one St John Ambulance paramedic got out uninjured.

WA police are managing the incident in conjunction with the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
381. AussieStorm
11:32 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Pilbara residents mop up after TC Lua

PILBARA residents have been given the all-clear as cyclone Lua winds down, but the Gascoyne region in WA's northwest remains on blue alert.

The tropical cyclone, which pounded the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts with 220km/h winds yesterday, was downgraded to a category 1 storm this morning.

The Port Hedland Port Authority said anchorage would be opened to iron ore export vessels at 10am with a view to first port entry and port opening at midnight.

At 8am, the Bureau of Meteorology estimated Lua to be 220km north of Wiluna, moving south at 30km/h.

The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon today, but winds of up to 100km/h are expected to persist until evening in the eastern Gascoyne, western interior and northern Goldfields.

Flood warnings are also in place, but some roads have reopened.

The North West Coastal Highway from Roeburne to Port Hedland has reopened, but the Great Northern Hwy remains closed from Mekatharra to Broome, as well as Marble Bar Rd from Newman to Port Hedland, and the Goldfields Hwy from Meekatharra to Wiluna.

Fire and Emergency Services of Western Australia (FESA) spokeswoman Lyn Bryant said the only report of damage had been to the Pardoo Roadhouse.

She said a team was flying to Pardoo early today to inspect the damage, while police would check on the Jigalong settlement, which was lashed by heavy rain.

Lua, packing winds of 250km/h and dumping heavy rain, crossed the coastline at Pardoo about 3pm yesterday.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
380. LargoFl
10:25 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
RGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

...DENSE FOG EXPANDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE DETECTED SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF
COAST. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSING OVER THE AREA
MAY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH THE FOG PERIODICALLY
LIFTING AND THEN SETTLING BACK TO THE GROUND. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE.

FLZ008-012-014-015-108-112-114-115-181300-
/O.CON.KTAE.FG.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T1300Z/
CENTRAL WALTON-INLAND BAY-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YOUNGSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...
FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...
PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE
527 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 /427 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
THIS MORNING...

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MOTORISTS NEAR THE
GULF COAST PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES OVER WATERWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD
OF YOU.

&&

$$

08-LAMERS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36894
379. LargoFl
10:23 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Good morning folks! 66 here this morning, looks to be another warm and sunny here in florida, have a great day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36894
378. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:07 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.7S 140.6E or 90 km north northwest of Karumba and 150 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters this evening, where it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning. The low is expected to adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track during Monday.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8:00 pm EST [7:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.6S 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.0S 140.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4S 140.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.6S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.4 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.5. MET and PT suggest 3.0 and 2.5 respectively. Final Dvorak based on DT as it is clear.

Low level convection has improved significantly over the last 6 hours and deep convection has developed near the center of the low. The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction this evening due to the influence of a mid level ridge across central Australia, though the low should adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday. Overall, the low is in a favorable environment for further development and is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
376. hurricanehunter27
6:09 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
I leave you with this.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
375. Patrap
5:41 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
374. docrod
5:39 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Ouch. I remember that one well. The Lome Prieta Earthquake.State Route 1 collapsed in western Watsonville over Struve Slough.


Very intense image. I was on the Oakland freeway that pancaked just 30 day prior to the event. I will never forget Al Micheal at the World Series. Thanks for that image. - whadda day
Member Since: April 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 771
373. greentortuloni
5:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Don't usually post GW stuff on this blog but for those interested in the methane in the arctic, thought this link might be interesting.

AMEG Position

DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY



We declare there now exists an extremely high international security risk* from abrupt and runaway global warming being triggered by the end-summer collapse of Arctic sea ice towards a fraction of the current record and release of huge quantities of methane gas from the seabed. Such global warming would lead at first to worldwide crop failures but ultimately and inexorably to the collapse of civilization as we know it. This colossal threat demands an immediate emergency scale response to cool the Arctic and save the sea ice. The latest available data indicates that a sea ice collapse is more than likely by 2015 and even possible this summer (2012). Thus some measures to counter the threat have to be ready within a few months.



The immediacy of this risk is underlined by the discovery of vast areas of continental shelf already in a critical condition as a result of the warming of the Arctic Ocean seabed. Increasingly large quantities of methane are being emitted from the seabed. Moreover there is the possibility of methane held as hydrates or under thawing permafrost being suddenly released in very large quantities due to some disturbance such as an earthquake. The quantities of methane in the continental shelf are so vast that a release of only one or two percent of the methane could lead to the release of the remaining methane in an unstoppable chain reaction. Global warming would spiral upward way beyond the 2 degrees which many scientists consider the safety limit.
Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
372. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:06 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 17U
2:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.8S 140.8E or 75 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5:00 pm EST [4:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:05 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER LUA (16U)
12:00 PM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Lua (989 hPa) located at 26.0S 120.3E or 65 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 18 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lua has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

A Severe Weather Warning is active for this system. Please refer to warning [IDW28001] for more information.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
People in or near Wiluna are advised that the Blue Alert has been lifted but there is still a Severe Weather Warning active for the area. Please refer to product IDW28001 for more information.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44744
370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:02 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
369. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:54 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
its only 20 minutes away by car on the 401 from my building
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
368. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:53 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
367. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:50 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
they occur just not as often as in other regions of the world

normally you would see a big event like new madrid every 200 years or so
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
366. Birthmark
4:46 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
There was a small EQ in my neck of the woods a couple of years ago. I slept through it. My son told me when I woke up that he heard a loud rumbling noise. I looked it up at USGS and there was like a 3.5 about 12 miles away.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
365. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:40 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
night bro
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
the last one i felt was the 5.8 that happen along the Que/ont border region felt a little rumbling and slight swaying action was on the roof of the highrise at the time it was during the summit i remember cause i was thinking the noise and shaking was caused by the three us marine helcopters that flew overhead during obama arrival at pearson but when i got down stairs my better half said we had just had a 5.8 in ottawa region near quebec thats been my 3rd one in the 25 years i've been here
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
363. hurricanehunter27
4:36 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Signing off..A blessed night to all..
Good night to you as well.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
362. hydrus
4:35 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Signing off..A blessed night to all..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
361. hurricanehunter27
4:34 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that would be extreme case but an high to low 8.something could or can happen
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you are in the New Madrid zone that area is overdue for an 8.8 to 9.1 they normally come in events of three with a little space between each one
Only reason I went up that high is cause you went up in that lower 9's as a possibility. Just played around with the idea in my head.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
360. hydrus
4:32 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting cyclonerichard:
I was in a 6.8 earthquake sitting on the hayward bridge trying to get to the World series in 1989. The car started to bounce like someone jumped on the back bumper.
Ouch. I remember that one well. The Lome Prieta Earthquake.State Route 1 collapsed in western Watsonville over Struve Slough.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
359. cyclonerichard
4:28 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
I was in a 6.8 earthquake sitting on the hayward bridge trying to get to the World series in 1989. The car started to bounce like someone jumped on the back bumper.
Member Since: February 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
358. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:27 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
that would be extreme case but an high to low 8.something could or can happen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
357. hydrus
4:26 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
Not to but in, but it is one big ugly fault. Not a subduction fault tho...Thank goodness.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
356. hydrus
4:25 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I'm off to bed......good night guys
G,nite Nige. I was going to ask if you read my post about the 04 Nino.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
355. hurricanehunter27
4:24 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the reason for such strong event has alot to do with all the fracking thats been done west of the spine as far north as ohio and beyond we are hollowing out the entire layer which will enhance any events that may occur
Are you sure there is even the potential energy required for a 9.0 with that fault line? Subduction zone are barley able to pull of a 9.0 or above.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
354. nigel20
4:23 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
>...And there is still lots of caves to be surveyed....lots..

I'm off to bed......good night guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7849
353. hydrus
4:19 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
>...And there is still lots of caves to be surveyed....lots..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
352. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:19 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
the reason for such strong event has alot to do with all the fracking thats been done west of the spine as far north as ohio and beyond we are hollowing out the entire layer which will enhance any events that may occur
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
351. hydrus
4:18 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
I must mention that I live on top of the Cumberland Caverns. A rather spooky network of caves that is over 25 miles long and covered with cemeteries. An earthquake would be a bit unsettling. I go to church with a relative of the man who discovered them. Excerpt..Cumberland Caverns is the second to third longest cave in Tennessee, USA. It has a surveyed length of 27.616 miles (44.4 kilometers), which makes it the 14th longest cave in the United States and the 64th longest cave in the World.

The main entrance was discovered by Aaron Higgenbotham in 1810 while he was surveying the nearby Chickamauga Trail on Cardwell Mountain in what is now Warren County. According to legend, Higgenbotham was the first man to enter the cave and it was named Higgenbotham Cave in his honor. Another smaller cave, also located on Cardwell Mountain, was also discovered about this time and was named Henshaw Cave. Although not nearly as big as Higgenbotham Cave, Henshaw Cave proved to be a source of saltpeter (the main ingredient of gunpowder) and was operated as a saltpeter mine during perhaps both the War of 1812 and the Civil War.

Higgenbotham Cave became a favorite spot for local adventurers during the 19th century and groups would ride out to the entrance in Haywagons and make the strenuous trip to a point in the cave now known as the Ten Acre Room. In the days of the Haywagon parties, it was called the Big Room. Here, many visitors left their names and the date candled on the ceiling.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
350. hydrus
4:13 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
night all
G,nite SPL.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
349. hurricanehunter27
4:13 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Actually- I did some research on the 1811-1812 New Madrid Earthquake, and it was massive in more ways than one.Damage-range comparison between a moderate New Madrid zone earthquake (1895, magnitude 6.8), and a similar Los Angeles event (1994, magnitude 6.7).
If a 9.0 were to occur in the area the damage would be unthinkable. A massive area will be pretty much destroyed if it were to ever occur.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:12 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
347. nigel20
4:11 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
9.1? I'm not to sure about that. Here is a simulation of of a 7.7 in the area.

The largest quakes tend to occur along subbuction zones and are more likely to produce megathrust quakes (9.0 )
The eastern caribbean sits next to a subduction zone plate boundary, so the area around Japan which is reffered to as the ring of fire plate
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7849
346. pottery
4:11 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and its 2012 two hundred years ago to the year

... and Grothar was there.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24028
345. hurricanehunter27
4:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through the firm midwestern bedrock, with residents as far away as Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Norfolk, Virginia, awakened by intense shaking.[9] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[10] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed
Get that off Wikipedia?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
344. SPLbeater
4:10 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
night all
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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