Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012

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For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Lightning 2 (barbtrek)
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Lightning 2
Setting Sol (minnesotamom)
Setting Sol
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You mean everyone isn't here to see me post? What a horrible realization this is... :(


-----> Raises hand <-----
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Magnitude 5.1 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
2012 March 17 19:50:22 UTC


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
If this is what global warming brings for northern mn. I am all for it, even though right now it is 60 degrees about 90 miles southwest of I Falls. Nice to see the icebox of the nation so warm, I bet they are not complaining either.
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..my sweat is sweating,

phew-ee

Gardening is tough work.

I need a cold Fresca, asap.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Where is this?

No trees + really green + waterfalls = could be Iceland.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.


That's just so wrong. 75 in International Falls and I shoveled snow off my solar panels this morning and am sitting by the wood stove.

Which is normal for here, this time of year. Parts of the country are so very abnormal at the moment. Makes you wonder what surprise awaits around the next corner....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The thing that strikes me is that the SREF gives Monday a Significant Tornado value of 40%. It only goes up to 50%...

Right over Waco TX.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
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The CMC...lolThe GFS. Very likely. The NOGAPS. Could happen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
The thing that strikes me is that the SREF gives Monday a Significant Tornado value of 40%. It only goes up to 50%...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Summer like thunderstorms popping up in GA again.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
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Skye did mention something on her blog about a system that could develope around Bahamas next week..
interesting..
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Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.


Press..... ROFL!!!
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Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
An artist asked the gallery owner if there had been any interest in his paintings on display at that time.

"I have good news and bad news," the owner replied. "The good news is that a gentleman enquired about your work and wondered if it would appreciate in value after your death. When I told him it would, he bought all 15 of your paintings."

"That's wonderful," the artist exclaimed. "What's the bad news?"
"The guy was your doctor..."
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not 2 impressive.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Can you post the shear profile for monday?>

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting presslord:
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
stop that you

:)
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7974
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, Monday has the POTENTIAL to be a substantial tornado outbreak. My point was that he needs to learn how to look at other parameters and not wishcast all the time.

He usually is in the right spot at the right time though, I'll give him that.


*cough*Henry Marguisty*cough*
Can you post the shear profile for monday?>
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Why were the three artists late to the Impressionist exhibit? They ran out of Monet to buy Degas to make the Van Gogh.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Agreed. Supposed to be more of a damaging wind, hail day.

Well, Monday has the POTENTIAL to be a substantial tornado outbreak. My point was that he needs to learn how to look at other parameters and not wishcast all the time.

He usually is in the right spot at the right time though, I'll give him that.

Quoting Neapolitan:
He does like to wishcast, to be sure...but then again, the guy has bagged more twisters than probably any ever has, so I tend to give his hypercasts more credibility than I do those from some of the others...

*cough*Henry Marguisty*cough*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Monday ECMWF:
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
He does like to wishcast, to be sure...but then again, the guy has bagged more twisters than probably anyone ever has, so I tend to give his hypercasts more credibility than I do those from some of the others...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
Agreed. Supposed to be more of a damaging wind, hail day.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Imagine if the Midwest Temps were running 39-41 Degree's under norms?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting Neapolitan:
From Reed Timmer via facebook:

uh-oh

"Monday is shaping up to being a substantial tornado outbreak from western OK south through western Texas all the way to the Mexican Border. Here are the 0-1km helicity values for 7 pm CDT. The red color is extreme. Stay tuned"

Sigh...

Reed needs to learn to look at all of the parameters and not focus on one. It seems all everytime he posts, its "extreme" or "off the charts" or it will be a "historic day". He likes to wishcast, to be honest.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31882
Quoting presslord:
Is it getting solipsistic in here? Or is it just me?
Ha! It reminds me a bit of this current Google classic:

ha!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting Patrap:
One can cook a nice Bear shoulder with a Dark Roux, potatoes and carrots...and a splash of Red Wine.

A troll, well, not so much.

They're good for sausage...I've heard. (Trolls I mean.)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
One can cook a nice Bear shoulder with a Dark Roux, potatoes and carrots...and a splash of Red Wine.

A troll, well, not so much.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Is it getting solipsistic in here? Or is it just me?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.


Wow.
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Maybe a 5% chance for the east in 8 days...I hope.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting nigel20:

It's looking as if we will be having neutal conditions through out the hurricane season
Another Neutral hurricane season like 011.But the weather patterns are different which I think the Gulf coast and Florida will have to watch out.
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Quoting Birthmark:

No. Grizzlies serve a useful purpose in nature.

Trolls...not so much.
This is true...And bears are cool. trolls...not so much
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
There are hundreds more high temperature records being broken--and sometimes shattered--today. For instance, International Falls, MN, just hit 75 degrees. In addition to beating the average high for the date by 41 degrees, that beats the record high for the date by 20 degrees, the previous all-time March high temperature there by two degrees, and marks the earliest appearance of 75 degrees there by three weeks.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting hydrus:
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)

No. Grizzlies serve a useful purpose in nature.

Trolls...not so much.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting hydrus:
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)


i reckon thats why i didnt get a nice welcome last august:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall. No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.

It's looking as if we will be having neutal conditions through out the hurricane season
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7974
From Reed Timmer via facebook:

uh-oh

"Monday is shaping up to being a substantial tornado outbreak from western OK south through western Texas all the way to the Mexican Border. Here are the 0-1km helicity values for 7 pm CDT. The red color is extreme. Stay tuned"
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting washingtonian115:
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall. No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.
You make them sound like Grizzly Bears.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Like who?
STORMTOP for one. He tried to sneak in some regular posts. Even though he masked them quite well, you could still tell it was his persona.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting nigel20:

Funny, but the warm equatorial waters that was there earlier seems to be cooling a bit
Which maybe is one of the reasons the models have backed off of a full flege El nino by fall.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I know that... :P. I haven't seen any Jason or JFV handles in a while though. I thought someone was accusing someone of being a troll...
No trolls on here as of yet.They usual come out of hibernation in May.And then they start to come around in June.Then their here full force in July/August/September and even into October.But they have been known to attack at anytime of the year.
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The new SSHWS


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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Where is this?


Ameritopia
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HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY

Look at the weather for Deadhorse, AK at 8 AM EDT. This town always surprises me,
Temperature -50F
Feels like -81F
Winds SW 17 mph

pic of the day
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Like JFV for example....TEH.


I know that... :P. I haven't seen any Jason or JFV handles in a while though. I thought someone was accusing someone of being a troll...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When I look at that picture it reminds me of my back pain I have.And then I put one of those cold/warm patches on it to make it feel better.

Funny, but the warm equatorial waters that was there earlier seems to be cooling a bit
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7974

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.