Summer in March continues for Midwest; Dexter, MI tornado an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on March 17, 2012

Share this Blog
26
+

For the third consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit their warmest temperature on record so early in the year, going back to 1872. The mercury hit 82°F, giving the city its third consecutive day of 80°+ temperatures, smashing the old record by a month. Previously, the earliest Chicago had ever seen three consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14 - 16, 1976. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say:

Chicago and Rockford have both broken high temperature records 3 days in a row and will likely break record highs for 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for 6 or 7 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get on Monday and Tuesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day. At the current pace... it is likely that Chicago and Rockford will not only break... but shatter their current record warmest Marches.


Figure 1. "This is the kind of sunset that you can expect to see in July, not in March. 77degrees when I took this," said the caption on this wunderphoto taken yesterday in Windom, Minnesota by wunderphotographer sally.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 39°F above average. This smashes the old record by a remarkable 6°F. Previous record: 73°F, set just two days previously, and also on March 7, 2000.

Bismark, North Dakota hit 81°F yesterday, which was a remarkable 41°F above normal. Not only does this tie Bismarck's warmest all-time monthly March temp on record (three other 81°F readings later in the month, with March 22,1910 being next earliest), it beats the next warmest early season record by a full 6°! The previous record was 75°F on March 12, 2007. Temperatures also soared into the 70's well into Canada's prairies on Friday, setting all-time warm temperature records for so early in the year across much of southern Canada.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 71°F yesterday, which was 36°F above normal, and their earliest 70°F reading by two weeks. Previously, the earliest 70°F reading came on March 30, 1967. Back on March 17, 1897, the temperature in International Falls hit -33°F!

Dexter, Michigan tornado rated an EF-3
NWS survey teams have confirmed that an EF-3 tornado with winds of 135 - 140 mph hit Dexter, Michigan on Thursday. It was the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950. The tornado skipped along a 7.2-mile path and had a width of up to 800 yards. It damaged or destroyed 128 buildings, but fortunately did not cause any deaths or injuries. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan Thursday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.

I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Lightning 2 (barbtrek)
Another shot from yesterdays storm in Michigan
Lightning 2
Setting Sol (minnesotamom)
Setting Sol
()

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 294 - 244

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Quoting KoritheMan:
La Nina still lingers, so of course they aren't.
The longer it lingers, the better chances for neutral conditions during the peak of the season I believe..No bueno.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
A lot can change in 3 months, but right now, there's just not a lot of heat to be taken out of the Atlantic when it comes to anomalies. The effects of our multi-year La Nina can easily be seen on a global level. The majority of our ocean basins are below normal SST-wise. Interesting how a lot of our continents are cooking, though.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.
How can something as wise as a Calabash Tree be confused. We talked about this before. Nothing on Earth manages its affairs as well as the mighty Calabash....If you think it needs a lift, just pour some some red on it. Problem solved..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Quoting pottery:

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.


The ITCZ looks dry right now so the source for any rain may come from SA for now. So far in PR,it has been normal the rainfall on this month with the usual afternoon showers in the interior and some fast showers moving thru north and eastern PR at nights.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It officially became El-nino 9/10/04 and was considered neutral before that date. Didnt last long The 97 Nino was rather intense. Map of Atlantic major hurricanes during post-"Modoki" seasons, including 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003 and 2005.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh

uh-oh

La Nina still lingers, so of course they aren't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting sunlinepr:
Moisture flare up in SA

Wow, that's a big area with loads of wet stuff.
Interesting to see if any of it will get here at all.
We have had a pretty dry week, and surface winds are still brisk from the ENE.

My Calabash trees are totally confused....
Lost some leaves, and are now putting them back on again.
There is no way I can figure out what's going to happen under these circumstances.
Very Strange.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??


what supercells from today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was searching through news about the Dexter tornado and found this and it was pretty interesting. img src="">
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
now this really steams me.

i am importing some supercell pictures from today, and my frickin thing is loading every single picture n vid on, which are already there!?!?!?!?!??
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4488
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh \

uh-oh


The warmth is here to stay it would seem
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh \

uh-oh

lol,
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Things aren't expected to cool much through the end of the month:

uh-oh

uh-oh

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting Patrap:
..My God, it's full of Star's..

No.

It.

Isn't!

So stop saying that. :)
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting Levi32:
The 2004 El Nino was weak but strengthening as the hurricane season progressed. Here are the ONI numbers from January to December:

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

However, yes, the warming was somewhat weighted to the central Pacific with less warming in the eastern Pacific.

Average SST Anomaly for August-October 2004:


Thanks much
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
The 2004 El Nino was weak but strengthening as the hurricane season progressed. Here are the ONI numbers from January to December:

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

However, yes, the warming was somewhat weighted to the central Pacific with less warming in the eastern Pacific.

Average SST Anomaly for August-October 2004:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting hydrus:
I was not entirely sure about what type of El-Nino that was occurring in 04, but most Mets were saying that the situation was nearing neutral by the time the peak of hurricane season came around. I do know that I and a lot of other people will never forget the 2004 Hurricane Season for the rest of there lives.

I will never forget the 2004 hurricane season, that's when I had my first close encounter with an hurricane (Ivan)
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting nigel20:

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
I was not entirely sure about what type of El-Nino that was occurring in 04, but most Mets were saying that the situation was nearing neutral by the time the peak of hurricane season came around. I do know that I and a lot of other people will never forget the 2004 Hurricane Season for the rest of there lives.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Quoting hydrus:
The tail end of one...I think..:o

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308



Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 172326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

..DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 30N. 5-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA BETWEEN
JACKSONVILLE AND OCALA MOVING SE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER
THE GULF FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ON SHORE SURFACE
FLOW TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Alrighty then..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32499
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wasn't 2004 a weak el nino year?
The tail end of one...I think..:o
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Quoting Articuno:

or HillyBillyland
If they have hillbillies in Iceland, then they are probably everywhere..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21704
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



TWC

no wonder it doesn't work. :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
266. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 120.3E or 220 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 16 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua has moved southwards and steadily weekened since then. The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon Sunday.

Gales are occurring in the northeast Gascoyne and adjacent far western Interior and expected to ease during the morning. Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday and are expected to persist until evening. Refer Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for more information.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western Interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna and all adjacent communities, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the southeast Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
265. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 16.9S 140.8E or 65 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.5S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.5S 140.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.6S 139.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.8S 139.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.25 degree wrap on log10 spiral and an added 0.5 for white band, giving DT of 2.0. MET and PT both suggest 1.5. FT based on DT as it is clear.

Mornington Island radar suggests that the low level center is now off the coast and that the low has adopted a northwesterly track. SSMI-S 37 GHz microwave image at 2231UTC also suggests that the low level center is now off the coast. The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction today as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia. The low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone on Monday morning considering the favorable environment for development that the low exists in.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Absolutely...It shouldnt be called Iceland, it should be called Hillygreenland..

or HillyBillyland
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
..My God, it's full of Star's..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
Fresno California....

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:
Moisture flare up in SA

That's quite a bit of moisture
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting hurricane23:


Haven't really taken a real good look at it but the majority of the climate models show neutral during the peak. The 30 day SOI is back up to a solid 5 now with the daily coming in at 13.


Here is that 30 day SOI index going up to +5.9 as of tonight.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WV CONUS...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Moisture flare up in SA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Hey good to see you.

Yes the pattern is typical of an El Nino season. Development threats should be closer to home but will have less time over water to strengthen in general. The question is how active our part of the basin will be. Some El Nino seasons are complete busts, while others have a decent amount of activity. This season doesn't look like a total shutdown, but it should be a good deal less active than the last couple of years.


Haven't really taken a real good look at it but the majority of the climate models show neutral during the peak. The 30 day SOI is back up to a solid 5 now with the daily coming in at 13.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
presented for your approval,,Doom?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129088
What Was Mysterious Dark Circle Near Sun?

© 2012 by Linda Moulton Howe
http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1957&catego ry=Science


“As part of coronal mass ejections (CME) from quiet
Sun regions (not from magnetically active regions with sunspots in them),
we believe there often is a big sausage-shaped structure floating above the solar
surface, underneath which a curtain of cool, dense material exists.”

- Karel Schrijver, Ph.D., Principal Investigator, AIA Instrument,
NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory


.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
March 17, 2012 SST anomaly
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta has had 4 consecutive 80+ degree days, two more gets would tie the record, the forecast has us getting 3 more.

That's simply unbelievable
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i need something, when i was younger, every spring i used to rub my eyes so much to try to stop the itching that i would cut my eyelids. Then i was unable to rub my eyes so i would spend a lot of time bent with my head in a sink full of water, which would temporarily wash my eyes out and provide relief.

So i reaaallly hate pollen.


I feel for all affected by pollen. Only time I was really affected by it was when it was over 10k for a few days. So I usually try to stay inside alot to avoid getting irritated by pollen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlanta has had 4 consecutive 80+ degree days, two more gets would tie the record, the forecast has us getting 3 more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
231. Bob Wallace
You might be able to find nymore at the gin joint.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I started allergy shots about six months ago; the kind you do yourself at home, subcutaneous, three times a week x 2 shots = six shots per week. They're painless, and I think it's helping me this spring.

My sinuses got so bad last year that I ended up on prednisone, and that's when I said ... "enough;" I have had it with this, and I don't care what it costs to get some relief. Nothing helped me much, my entire life, except Seldane, and they pulled that from the market.

It's not cheap, but if it affects your productivity the way it did me, it should pay off in the long run. I also think the price has come down a bit on these you do at home.


i need something, when i was younger, every spring i used to rub my eyes so much to try to stop the itching that i would cut my eyelids. Then i was unable to rub my eyes so i would spend a lot of time bent with my head in a sink full of water, which would temporarily wash my eyes out and provide relief.

So i reaaallly hate pollen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in the not too distant future we will have a new level of severe to go with the three current levels

slight risk
mod risk
high risk
extreme risk


Something official or something you can see coming, I wonder. To me a PDS watch is an extreme risk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JNCali:
pollen.com map for today
I started allergy shots about six months ago; the kind you do yourself at home, subcutaneous, three times a week x 2 shots = six shots per week. They're painless, and I think it's helping me this spring.

My sinuses got so bad last year that I ended up on prednisone, and that's when I said ... "enough;" I have had it with this, and I don't care what it costs to get some relief. Nothing helped me much, my entire life, except Seldane, and they pulled that from the market.

It's not cheap, but if it affects your productivity the way it did me, it should pay off in the long run. I also think the price has come down a bit on these you do at home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wasn't 2004 a weak el nino year?

Modiki el nino...this type of el nino occurs when there is more warming in the central pacific. Modiki is the japanese word for "similar, but different"
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8308

Viewing: 294 - 244

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast