Rare March tornado rips Michigan; record March heat wave sets more records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on March 16, 2012

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As I stepped out of my front door into the pre-dawn darkness from my home near Ann Arbor, Michigan yesterday morning, I braced myself for the cold shock of a mid-March morning. It didn't come. A warm, murky atmosphere, with temperatures in the upper fifties--30 degrees above normal--greeted me instead. Continuous flashes of heat lightning lit up the horizon, as the atmosphere crackled with the energy of distant thunderstorms. Beware the Ides of March, the air seemed to be saying. I looked up at the hazy stars above me, flashing in and out of sight as lightning lit up the sky, and thought, this is not the atmosphere I grew up with.


Video 1. Video taped at Hudson Mills Metro Park in Dexter about 5:30PM on March 15, 2012, by Matthew Altruda from Tree Town Sound, http://www.treetownsound.com. Caution: foul language.

That afternoon, as the Detroit temperature soared to 77°F, the second warmest on record so early in the year, going back to 1871, I watched as late afternoon thunderstorms built with remarkable speed. Though NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had placed Southeast Michigan in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, I wasn't too concerned about tornadoes. We don't get many tornadoes in Michigan this early in the year, and certainly not strong ones. Prior to yesterday, there were only sixteen tornadoes on record in Michigan that occurred before March 16, going back to 1950. Though the air was remarkably unstable for this time of year, the upper level winds were not strong enough to generate much shearing action on the air, meaning that tornadoes would have a tough time getting spinning. But the atmosphere had other ideas. In a remarkably short half-hour period, a severe thunderstorm sprang up west of Ann Arbor, began spinning, and dropped a strong tornado down on the unfortunate town of Dexter, Michigan. The tornado skipped along a ten-mile path, damaging or destroying 128 buildings, but fortunately not causing any deaths or injuries. While most of the damage was light to moderate, thirteen homes were demolished, and preliminary damage estimates from the National Weather Service put the twister at the boundary between EF-2 and EF-3 strength, with winds of 135 mph. If confirmed as an EF-3, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan yesterday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.


Video 2. This video report by AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey shows tornado damage in the Dexter, Michigan, about 90 minutes after the tornado came through on Thursday, March 15, 2012.

I talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of her friend who was driving through town, saw the tornado, and pulled over into the Dexter car wash to take shelter. Some strangers living next door to the car wash yelled at him to come shelter in their basement, since the car wash didn't have a basement. He joined them, and was glad he did, because his car and the car wash were heavily damaged by a tree that was flung into it (see damage to the car wash in the video above.)

Hail, Hail, to Michigan
The Dexter storms also brought golfball to baseball-sized hail and a deluge of 4 - 5 inches of rain that caused street flooding in Ann Arbor. My Ph.D. advisor and co-founder of Weather Underground, Dr. Perry Samson, related this story to me: "I was traveling home by bus to go chase, but the bus came to a stand still at Michigan Stadium as cars were sunk up to their windows in water on Main Street. I told the driver I had to chase this storm, and came up with a story about what I do. He gunned the bus and drove through the flood to get me home. So I didn't actually commandeer a bus to chase the tornado, but it was darn close!"

Record Midwest March heat wave topples more records
For the second consecutive day, large portions of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, including the cities of Chicago, Madison, and Dubuque, recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year. Perhaps the most extraordinary record occurred in Madison, Wisconsin, which hit 82°F--a temperature 39°F above average. It was the hottest temperature ever recorded in March, and three degrees warmer than any day so early in the year, going back to 1869. Not as many all-time hottest temperature records for so early in the year were set in Michigan and other surrounding states, due to plentiful moisture that generated afternoon cloud cover. The records will continue to fall across the Midwest for another week, as the ridge of high pressure responsible stays locked in place.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday
For the second consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

For the second consecutive day, Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 79°F set the previous day.

Moline, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 34°F above average. Previous record: 75°F set the previous day, and also on March 12, 1990.

Waterloo, Iowa hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1895, and 34°F above average. This ties the record set on March 7, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 39°F above average. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in March (tied with March 29th, 1986 and March 31, 1981), as is also (by two weeks) the earliest 80° reading ever measured there. The previous record for a temperature so hot this early in the year was 79°F set the previous day, on March 14, 2012.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Sterm has Passed (nickwuaa)
Lightning to the east courtesy of my daughter. This was a violent storm that produced a tornado west of us and plenty of hail and thunder.
Sterm has Passed
Looks like Snow (KSMc)
The hail was more than an inch deep.
Looks like Snow
Yikes (Susie77)
Eeks! NWS just issued us a severe thunderstorm warning. Very cool mammatus clouds!
Yikes
Three Strikes at Sunset (CecileWNC)
Three Strikes at Sunset

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Quoting Patrap:


Broome, Western Australia

Broome is a pearling and tourist town in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, 2,200 km (1,400 mi) north of Perth. The permanent population is estimated at 14,436, growing to over 45,000 per month during the tourist season. Broome International Airport provides transport to several regional and domestic towns and cities.

Ok, thanks much appreciated
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
Port Hedland
Australia Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 259.1 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting Jedkins01:



My house is roughly 3 ft above sea level, is it ok if I psychologically bet you $100,000 that there will not be sufficient sea level rise due to GW by 2050 to flood my house? Because I really do laugh at the ridiculous predictions of sea level rise. There could be a lot of bad things that happen between now and then, but I don't think Tampa Bay coastlines flooding from sea level rise will be one of them...
I doubt there'll be a 3-foot sea level rise by 2050, although that's certainly within the realm of knowledgeable predictions. Now, if you want to make that bet for, say, 2080, you're on. In fact, double it. Quadruple it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
And not just gravity waves. Notice how sea creatures and birds can change there path instantly. Apparently without seeing or hearing anything. Heck, they still are not quite sure exactly how a caterpillar turns into a moth or butterfly. Just the obvious.

I sit on my roof just after dawn and watch a 1000 starlings all change course at the same time, just like fish in shoal.
In order for a caterpillar to turn into a butterfly it has to have all the components necessary inside the chrysalis when it goes into metamorphosis!
A mass of warm damp air can become a cat 5 hurricane? Or simply dissipate!
A lot of that deep thinking, inner self, mind over matter, at one, OM stuff, is based on being prepared for what you might just be able to comprehend, if you are lucky?
Humanity will continue in the main to decline into obesity and complacency, as there is not much incentive to evolve; after all we are supposed to be at the top of our tree about now? Ask any dolphin!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
Lubbock
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

How populated is the area of projected impact?


Broome, Western Australia

Broome is a pearling and tourist town in the Kimberley region of Western Australia, 2,200 km (1,400 mi) north of Perth. The permanent population is estimated at 14,436, growing to over 45,000 per month during the tourist season. Broome International Airport provides transport to several regional and domestic towns and cities.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
half dollar size hail

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
EASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
NORTHEASTERN LUBBOCK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 521 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PETERSBURG...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FLOYDADA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AIKEN...
LOCKNEY...AND SOUTH PLAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8067451290.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
301. Patrap
10:38 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Comet Swan

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
300. BobWallace
10:32 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



My house is roughly 3 ft above sea level, is it ok if I psychologically bet you $100,000 that there will not be sufficient sea level rise due to GW by 2050 to flood my house? Because I really do laugh at the ridiculous predictions of sea level rise. There could be a lot of bad things that happen between now and then, but I don't think Tampa Bay coastlines flooding from sea level rise will be one of them...


If your house is worth $100,000 then you've already made that bet in real dollars.

Now the question is, how much would it cost you to get out of that bet?

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
299. nigel20
10:28 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Patrap:



How populated is the area of projected impact?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
298. Patrap
10:23 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Lua could cross WA coast as category four

Saturday March 17, 2012 - 07:54 EDT

Residents on Western Australia's north coast have been put on red alert as Tropical Cyclone Lua bears down on the region.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast as a category three or four system about midday today, with the tiny communities of Pardoo and Walall directly in the firing line.

Nearby towns, including Port Hedland and Broome, are also bracing for wind gusts of up to 200 kilometres per hour and heavy rain.

Heavy rainfall is also expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara.

Residents of Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are being warned of dangerous storm tides expected as the cyclone centre approaches.

"Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding," the Bureau of Meteorology said.


A red alert has been issued for people in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland.

The alert means they are effectively in lock down until the cyclone passes.

The weather bureau says they need to go to shelter immediately.

A yellow alert is in place for people in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases.

They need to take action and prepare to shelter from the cyclone.

All commercial flights in and out of the area have been cancelled, while the region's main highway has been closed.

Port Hedland's port has also been shut down.

Lua is the fifth cyclone of the season, but by far the most severe.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
297. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:23 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 17U
7:58 AM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.6S 140.8E or 170 kilometres east of Mornington Island and 160 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The TROPICAL LOW is expected to develop further over the next couple of days and become slow moving over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are possible between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
296. Grothar
10:21 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
I learned that word in 1980 over a game of chess. His definition was hilarious and cannot be posted.


Well, you know me, hydrus. I am quite conservative and straight-laced when it comes to any type of off-color remarks. I have a great disdain for public displays of such things on a blog.

(P.S. if it's that bad, please PM me with the definition. :):)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26482
295. hydrus
10:21 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:

I am more and more nowadays thinking along the lines of thought attachment to gravity waves, which may travel instantaneously in order to observe what might be or have happened in other zones of the the big inkwell in which we reside.
Not only would we be then able to observe on the outgoing wave but we would also be able to ride back on it via the, for want of a better term" The Cline Wave,"
Zero energy needed from our point of view so don't pass go and don't collect your imaginary $200.
And not just gravity waves. Notice how sea creatures and birds can change there path instantly. Apparently without seeing or hearing anything. Heck, they still are not quite sure exactly how a caterpillar turns into a moth or butterfly. Just the obvious.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
294. nigel20
10:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:
These cold cloud tops actually happen pretty often in the Indian Ocean as well as the West and South Pacific. Waters there are warmer than they are in the Atlantic, therefore there is a lot more moisture for thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, here in the Atlantic we don't see cloud tops that cold very often because of the cooler water temperatures.

I think the stronger monsoon trough also have some think to do with moisture available for tropical developement
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
293. Patrap
10:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2012


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 79
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 78...

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM JUST SW OF LBB TO
JUST NE OF PAMPA. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL HELP
CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A WEAK
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEWD FROM ERN NM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...BUT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS COULD COALESCE INTO A CLUSTER
OR TWO ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...THOMPSON


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
292. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
6:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 18.0S 119.1E or 260 km north northeast of Port Hedland 330 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon.

Gales are expected in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during Saturday morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Telfer, Woodie Woodie, Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45601
291. nigel20
10:15 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
SH172012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) LUA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/Loop

..click image for loop





Projected impact is within 12hrs
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
290. MAweatherboy1
10:08 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
I just noticed that Lua has greatly increased in size over the past 10-12 hours... The WU satellite loop shows it really well.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
289. drought
10:05 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Member Since: March 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
288. MAweatherboy1
10:03 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting TomTaylor:

Yes, there is a difference. An invest is an area that a meteorological center determines is worthy of watching for possible tropical or subtropical development. A tropical low is a low pressure system exhibiting tropical characteristics (ie warm core, convection over the top, no fronts, etc).

So an invest is not necessarily a tropical low because subtropical disturbances can be invests. Similarly, a tropical low is not necessarily an invest because an invest is simply an area deemed worthy of watching for development, there are no requirements for invest designation.

Good explanation... Thank you!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
287. Patrap
10:02 PM GMT on March 16, 2012


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
286. PlazaRed
10:01 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Red..Yes, And hittin the brakes at that speed might spill the important cup of coffee.

I am more and more nowadays thinking along the lines of thought attachment to gravity waves, which may travel instantaneously in order to observe what might be or have happened in other zones of the the big inkwell in which we reside.
Not only would we be then able to observe on the outgoing wave but we would also be able to ride back on it via the, for want of a better term" The Cline Wave,"
Zero energy needed from our point of view so don't pass go and don't collect your imaginary $200.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
285. ktymisty
10:01 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
And local radar for Port Hedland WA Lua should cross the coast in a few hours.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
284. Patrap
9:59 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
SH172012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) LUA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/Loop

..click image for loop




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
283. ktymisty
9:56 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
There aren't many webcams around that part of WA, the closest I found just now was for Broome.
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
282. PlazaRed
9:53 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



My house is roughly 3 ft above sea level, is it ok if I psychologically bet you $100,000 that there will not be sufficient sea level rise due to GW by 2050 to flood my house? Because I really do laugh at the ridiculous predictions of sea level rise. There could be a lot of bad things that happen between now and then, but I don't think Tampa Bay coastlines flooding from sea level rise will be one of them...

The odds of your house not having been surgically removed by the side effects of a hurricane before 2050 will far outweigh the possibility of it being still above sea level.
Sell up now whilst there is still a road out of there.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
281. aspectre
9:52 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
From being totally brain-deadened by but not tongue-tied upon meeting FrancisCrick, co-discoverer of DNA's double helix

Me -- "You've joined the immortals: Bell&Watson, Holmes&Watson, and now Crick&Watson."
Dr.Crick -- "I think Watson would have something to say about the order."
Me -- "Nah, Watson's always the second banana."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
280. hydrus
9:52 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I remember when that girl won on TV for spelling that. It was a long time ago, but we all played games trying to spell it. I don't remember the show, though.
I learned that word in 1980 over a game of chess. His definition was hilarious and cannot be posted.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
279. ktymisty
9:51 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Here's the latest map from Weatherzone for Cyclone Lua.

"Tropical Cyclone Lua is expected to reach a severe category four rating before it hits the Pilbara coast of Western Australia this afternoon.

Winds are gusting up to 205km/h near the centre of the cyclone and these winds are still intensifying. Lua is moving in an east-southeast direction at 20km/h, with expectations of making landfall near the Pilbara town of Pardoo.

Wind and rain has already started to increase dramatically along the Pilbara coast. The Kimberley town of Rowley Shoals recorded a wind gust of 138.9km/h. Nearby Derby and Broome have both received around 50mm since 9am yesterday. As the cyclone approaches both wind speed and rain rates are expected to increase significantly.

A cyclone warning is in place between Cape Leveque and Dampier, including areas such as Port Hedland, Karratha and Broome. The warning also extends to inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley.

A cyclone watch is in place for the central and eastern inland Pilbara, eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western Interior.

Very destructive winds in excess of 230km/h are expected near the cyclone centre as it reaches the coastline. Destructive winds to 160km/h are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga after sunrise today. These winds are likely to move to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day.

Daily rainfall totals are likely to be in excess of 150mm for parts of the west Kimberley and east Pilbara coast. Many parts of the warning and watch areas are likely experience heavy rain, with more than 100mm in some areas.

A very dangerous storm tide is likely for the Port Hedland area and east to Bidyadanga, where very high tides will lead to damaging waves and very dangerous flooding. Heavy surf conditions will also batter the east Pilbara and west Kimberley Coast later today and during Saturday.

As the cyclone moves over land the system will begin to break up, however areas of heavy rain are then expected to spread inland to the eastern Gascoyne and northern Goldfields during late Saturday and Sunday.

The last severe tropical cyclone to cross the northwest coast of WA was Laurence in December of 2009, which crossed the Pilbara coast as a category five system.

- Weatherzone
Member Since: August 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 206
278. nigel20
9:50 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting drought:
Chicago has hit 81 now. 3rd day in a row for that too.

That's really amazing
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
277. hydrus
9:48 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
276. drought
9:46 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Will Philip, South Dakota go from a freeze to 90 in one day?
Member Since: March 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
275. hydrus
9:46 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting PlazaRed:
Cherry Picking whilst they are still in blossom?
"Quote from Hydrus,at 154.
If the spaceship accelerates at a constant 1 g (in its own changing frame of reference), it will, after 354 days, reach speeds a little under the speed of light (for an observer on Earth), and time dilation will increase his lifespan to thousands of Earth years,"
If you walk in the rain you get wet.
If you ride a motorcycle in the rain at speed, the rain stings your face.
If you fly a plane at several thousand miles an hour and it hits rain, the rain pits the metal surface of the plane!
If you could ever travel at approaching the speed of light can you imagine what a particle of dust would do to your spacecraft when you hit it at speeds well in excess of 180,000 Miles per second. (280,000KPS)Even the friction from the odd molecules of hydrogen in interstellar space would be a catastrophic problem?
Greetings Red..Yes, And hittin the brakes at that speed might spill the important cup of coffee.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
274. nigel20
9:45 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Mabe the intensity isn't that strong, but is sure looks like a big rainmaker. It could really be bad news. I wonder if Aussie will have some info for us.



I said that earlier, I think TC Lua will cause flooding/landslide in the impact region
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
273. Jedkins01
9:45 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
686 Jedkins01 "How old are you may I ask? Because I am now 21(I'm assuming you are young enough to fit may statement) and when I am 50, I would love to shake hands and have a beer with you, and look back and laugh at all the GW fuss back in the early 2000's.
691 Neapolitan "If there's any laughing going on in 2050, it'll be of the derisive type--and it'll be aimed squarely at those who delayed action on mitigation."

'fraid not.
Even if you were sitting on a barstool up to your chest in seawater at your favorite (former)beachfront bar, AGW deniers would be laughing derisively at "folks gullible enough to believe that this obvious coverup* by climate scientists trying to hide their theft of taxpayer dollars proves anything."
And AGW advocates would be left to cry in their beer about all of the unnecessary hardships caused by the fact that most folks refuse to pay any attention to what's going on around them.

* ie chest-high seawater on what useta be dry land



My house is roughly 3 ft above sea level, is it ok if I psychologically bet you $100,000 that there will not be sufficient sea level rise due to GW by 2050 to flood my house? Because I really do laugh at the ridiculous predictions of sea level rise. There could be a lot of bad things that happen between now and then, but I don't think Tampa Bay coastlines flooding from sea level rise will be one of them...
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272. hydrus
9:45 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
I hope our wisdom will grow with our power, and teach us, that the less we use our power the greater it will be.

- Thomas Jefferson


Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
271. PlazaRed
9:44 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Cherry Picking whilst they are still in blossom?
"Quote from Hydrus,at 154.
If the spaceship accelerates at a constant 1 g (in its own changing frame of reference), it will, after 354 days, reach speeds a little under the speed of light (for an observer on Earth), and time dilation will increase his lifespan to thousands of Earth years,"
If you walk in the rain you get wet.
If you ride a motorcycle in the rain at speed, the rain stings your face.
If you fly a plane at several thousand miles an hour and it hits rain, the rain pits the metal surface of the plane!
If you could ever travel at approaching the speed of light can you imagine what a particle of dust would do to your spacecraft when you hit it at speeds well in excess of 180,000 Miles per second. (280,000KPS)Even the friction from the odd molecules of hydrogen in interstellar space would be a catastrophic problem?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
270. drought
9:44 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Chicago has hit 81 now. 3rd day in a row for that too.
Member Since: March 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
269. Grothar
9:42 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Antidisestablishmentarianism. 12 syllables is the best I can do for now.


I remember when that girl won on TV for spelling that. It was a long time ago, but we all played games trying to spell it. I don't remember the show, though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26482
268. nrtiwlnvragn
9:41 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

But it's still not a classified cyclone... Is there a difference between tropical low and invest?


May be soon:

WTPS21 PGTW 162130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
160 NM RADIUS OF 16.4S 140.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 162030Z INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 140.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ABOUT TO
MOVE BACK OVER LAND NORTH OF DELTA DOWNS. SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AREA SHOW SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS 30 KNOTS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE REGION HAS HIGH (30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, SO ANY PROLONGED
PERIOD OVER THE GULF COULD LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172100Z.
//



A low is one of the classifications used on an invest.
TY - Highest level of tc development:
DB - disturbance,
TD - tropical depression,
TS - tropical storm,
TY - typhoon,
ST - super typhoon,
TC - tropical cyclone,
HU - hurricane,
SD - subtropical depression,
SS - subtropical storm,
EX - extratropical systems,
PT - post tropical,
IN - inland,
DS - dissipating,
LO - low,
WV - tropical wave,
ET - extrapolated,
XX - unknown.
Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
267. Grothar
9:40 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Mabe the intensity isn't that strong, but is sure looks like a big rainmaker. It could really be bad news. I wonder if Aussie will have some info for us.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26482
266. hydrus
9:35 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting drought:


Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
Antidisestablishmentarianism. 12 syllables is the best I can do for now.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
265. nigel20
9:29 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Two recent images of Lua





I haven't seen anything this intense in years.
One rarely sees black in these things.



Wow!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8144
264. Grothar
9:29 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What?


What?


If you paid more attention in school, you would know what he was talking about!!! :)) One's place in eternity.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26482
263. PlazaRed
9:28 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
I know some of you think China is far away and has nothing to do with USA weather. It's a volcano though, constantly spewing for many years.


BeijingAir ‏ @BeijingAir

03-17-2012 03:00; PM2.5; 268.0; 318; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

Hi, Thought you might like to glance at this one?
Its to do with pollution etc in the London area. They seem to want to blame it " as they do?" on the air having been polluted first in the North of England, then in France before it got to them? Here's a line from it!
"Simon Birkett, director of the Clean Air in London campaign, said: “This is the fifth smog ‘episode’ already this year and the worst yet. Olympic athletes are going to have to be warned if we get pollution levels this high again in the summer.”
Here's the link, to copy and paste:-

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/london/london- smog-scare-7575337.html

Even stranger they say he (The Mayor,) didn't warn people about it as it might jeopardize his election chances. London is of course Europe's largest 'banana republic!'
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262. Grothar
9:26 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Don't see this very often, either.

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261. drought
9:25 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Superimpressive.


Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
Member Since: March 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
260. hydrus
9:23 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Impressive isn't a big enough word
Superimpressive.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
259. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:22 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



Nec locutus meliores. Spero ut omnia in locum aeternum.

That was pretty good hydrus. All correct grammar, too! Now I am really impressed.

What?

Quoting hydrus:
Conor ut statua sulum victus res ut has umquam futurus in orbis terrarum , vel vel universum , quod panton ut has res intus is. sanctimonia of sulum creatura , suus voluntas , quod quam sulum unus of lemma met terminus of illic existence quod quare. Quod si illic est a locus pro lemma in infinitio. EGO puto illic est.

What?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.