Rare March tornado rips Michigan; record March heat wave sets more records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on March 16, 2012

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As I stepped out of my front door into the pre-dawn darkness from my home near Ann Arbor, Michigan yesterday morning, I braced myself for the cold shock of a mid-March morning. It didn't come. A warm, murky atmosphere, with temperatures in the upper fifties--30 degrees above normal--greeted me instead. Continuous flashes of heat lightning lit up the horizon, as the atmosphere crackled with the energy of distant thunderstorms. Beware the Ides of March, the air seemed to be saying. I looked up at the hazy stars above me, flashing in and out of sight as lightning lit up the sky, and thought, this is not the atmosphere I grew up with.


Video 1. Video taped at Hudson Mills Metro Park in Dexter about 5:30PM on March 15, 2012, by Matthew Altruda from Tree Town Sound, http://www.treetownsound.com. Caution: foul language.

That afternoon, as the Detroit temperature soared to 77°F, the second warmest on record so early in the year, going back to 1871, I watched as late afternoon thunderstorms built with remarkable speed. Though NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had placed Southeast Michigan in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, I wasn't too concerned about tornadoes. We don't get many tornadoes in Michigan this early in the year, and certainly not strong ones. Prior to yesterday, there were only sixteen tornadoes on record in Michigan that occurred before March 16, going back to 1950. Though the air was remarkably unstable for this time of year, the upper level winds were not strong enough to generate much shearing action on the air, meaning that tornadoes would have a tough time getting spinning. But the atmosphere had other ideas. In a remarkably short half-hour period, a severe thunderstorm sprang up west of Ann Arbor, began spinning, and dropped a strong tornado down on the unfortunate town of Dexter, Michigan. The tornado skipped along a ten-mile path, damaging or destroying 128 buildings, but fortunately not causing any deaths or injuries. While most of the damage was light to moderate, thirteen homes were demolished, and preliminary damage estimates from the National Weather Service put the twister at the boundary between EF-2 and EF-3 strength, with winds of 135 mph. If confirmed as an EF-3, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance of an F-3 tornado in Michigan was on March 20, 1976. At least two other tornadoes touched down in Michigan yesterday, making it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history so early in the year. The record outbreak for so early in the year was the eight tornadoes that touched down on March 12, 1976.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image (top) and Doppler velocity image (bottom) of the March 15, 2012 Dexter, Michigan tornado.


Video 2. This video report by AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey shows tornado damage in the Dexter, Michigan, about 90 minutes after the tornado came through on Thursday, March 15, 2012.

I talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of her friend who was driving through town, saw the tornado, and pulled over into the Dexter car wash to take shelter. Some strangers living next door to the car wash yelled at him to come shelter in their basement, since the car wash didn't have a basement. He joined them, and was glad he did, because his car and the car wash were heavily damaged by a tree that was flung into it (see damage to the car wash in the video above.)

Hail, Hail, to Michigan
The Dexter storms also brought golfball to baseball-sized hail and a deluge of 4 - 5 inches of rain that caused street flooding in Ann Arbor. My Ph.D. advisor and co-founder of Weather Underground, Dr. Perry Samson, related this story to me: "I was traveling home by bus to go chase, but the bus came to a stand still at Michigan Stadium as cars were sunk up to their windows in water on Main Street. I told the driver I had to chase this storm, and came up with a story about what I do. He gunned the bus and drove through the flood to get me home. So I didn't actually commandeer a bus to chase the tornado, but it was darn close!"

Record Midwest March heat wave topples more records
For the second consecutive day, large portions of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa, including the cities of Chicago, Madison, and Dubuque, recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year. Perhaps the most extraordinary record occurred in Madison, Wisconsin, which hit 82°F--a temperature 39°F above average. It was the hottest temperature ever recorded in March, and three degrees warmer than any day so early in the year, going back to 1869. Not as many all-time hottest temperature records for so early in the year were set in Michigan and other surrounding states, due to plentiful moisture that generated afternoon cloud cover. The records will continue to fall across the Midwest for another week, as the ridge of high pressure responsible stays locked in place.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday
For the second consecutive day, Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

For the second consecutive day, Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 79°F set the previous day.

Moline, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 34°F above average. Previous record: 75°F set the previous day, and also on March 12, 1990.

Waterloo, Iowa hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1895, and 34°F above average. This ties the record set on March 7, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 39°F above average. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in March (tied with March 29th, 1986 and March 31, 1981), as is also (by two weeks) the earliest 80° reading ever measured there. The previous record for a temperature so hot this early in the year was 79°F set the previous day, on March 14, 2012.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Sterm has Passed (nickwuaa)
Lightning to the east courtesy of my daughter. This was a violent storm that produced a tornado west of us and plenty of hail and thunder.
Sterm has Passed
Looks like Snow (KSMc)
The hail was more than an inch deep.
Looks like Snow
Yikes (Susie77)
Eeks! NWS just issued us a severe thunderstorm warning. Very cool mammatus clouds!
Yikes
Three Strikes at Sunset (CecileWNC)
Three Strikes at Sunset

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Ameister12 Lua looks about an hour from landfall. I wonder where Bedout island is in that radar. Has to be on the west side since the wind is from the south.
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Here's an interesting fact for ya...

Did you know that 'gullible' isn't in the dictionary?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Ameister12:
That looks pretty bad.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
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Spring. Blooms break forth from the startled earth. The sky laughs. The trees, abashed, dress themselves in verdant green. And the heavens are lush with stars. Redeem the time, the stars sing down. Redeem the dream.
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While Australia has had enough, I think anything that is forecast to bring rain to Texas is still welcome, even if it's a severe weather threat.
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It's the JET STREAM, that's all!
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coming march 23
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The only thing funnier than Presslord's jokes was the SPC Watch today :)

Okay, maaaybe not.
we are on a journey into uncharted territory with effects known to no one
and to predict the unknown will thats impossible
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160847
SPC AC 160847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4 /MON 3-19/...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 5 /TUE 3-20/ AS THE GFS CLOSES OFF A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OPEN.

THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS A LOW DAY 6...BUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS -- WHICH KEEPS THIS FEATURE INVOF OK FOR ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. WHILE A VARYING DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST DAY 5 -- AND PERHAPS BEYOND -- IN EITHER MODEL SOLUTION...DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING ANY THREAT AREAS BEYOND DAY 4.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE SRN PLAINS...AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ADVANCES WITH TIME. WHILE SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND MUCH FARTHER NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAKING VERY SLOW EWD PROGRESS DUE TO VERY STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT.

FARTHER S HOWEVER...A MORE SWLY BELT OF FLOW ALOFT -- AND THUS MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT -- IS PROGGED. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS TX/OK INTO A DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. WITH THREATS FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES APPARENT ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SEVERE THREAT AREA ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS REGION -- WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
APPEARS TO EXIST.

..GOSS.. 03/16/2012
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Then there's that little place in Wales...

Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwyllllantysil iogogogoch.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so how big of an event will convince you or are you blind except for what you want to see

"There is no one blinder than he won't see"!
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The only think funnier than Presslord's jokes was the SPC Watch today :)

Okay, maaaybe not.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


willy willy (dust devil)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_word s_of_Australian_Aboriginal_origin

Also used to refer to TC's
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I did include a link to the wikipedia article. :)

But in short, it is the name of a disease caused by inhaling microscopic volcanic dust particles.

Earlier, people were posting long words they knew so I thought I'd put this one up here. Of course, this has nothing on some German words. :)

Thanks much
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Also know as Jello.

I kid :)
Pink slime.
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Quoting hydrus:
Taumata­whakatangihanga­koauau­o­tamatea­tur i­pukakapiki­maunga­horo­nuku­pokai­whenua­ kitanatahu is the Māori name for a hill, 305 metres (1,001 ft) high, close to Porangahau, south of Waipukurau in southern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand.

The name is often shortened to Taumata by the locals for ease of conversation. The New Zealand Geographic Placenames Database, maintained by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ), records the name as "Taumata­whakatangihanga­koauau­o­tamatea­pok ai­whenua­ki­tana­tahu".[1] It has gained a measure of fame as it is the longest place-name found in any English-speaking country, and it is the second longest place-name in the world, according to Wises New Zealand Guide and reported in the New Zealand Herald

Wow! That's a very long name for a place
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting Neapolitan:
...as those German words, in trun, have nothing on certain chemical formula names. ;-)


Also know as Jello.

I kid :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's a lung disease.

Ok, cool
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting Xyrus2000:
Earlier, people were posting long words they knew so I thought I'd put this one up here. Of course, this has nothing on some German words. :)
...as those German words, in turn, have nothing on certain chemical formula names. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Quoting nigel20:

Do you know the origin of the term "willy-willy"?


willy willy (dust devil)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_word s_of_Australian_Aboriginal_origin
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My favorite mouth-full that I actually heard used correctly in context: "And here we have an astrocycomlaolodendrogliom [sc] with mixed epidimal [sc] cells."

I was a projectionist at NYU Med School in a place and time far far away.
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385. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
9:00 AM FST March 16 2012
=======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1005 hPa) located at 24.2S 169.7E is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Low level circulation center partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. TD 14F lies to the east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it in a southeasterly direction with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Quoting nigel20:

What's the meaning of this word or you just know an extremely large word?


I did include a link to the wikipedia article. :)

But in short, it is the name of a disease caused by inhaling microscopic volcanic dust particles.

Earlier, people were posting long words they knew so I thought I'd put this one up here. Of course, this has nothing on some German words. :)
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Quoting hydrus:
I always thought this was cool..Piddington had a slave ship near Madagascar and ran into a cyclone. For 3 days he was beaten around. Thinking he was many miles off course, he was amazed to find that he was only a few miles away from where he was three days before. He deduced that he had been blown around into a circle of sorts. Cyclone basically means "coil of a snake.......The Origin of Cyclone

Cyclone — the word has struck dread in the hearts of many facing its fury. For others, it means only a swirl of counterclockwise winds around a low pressure center. It first surfaced in the Indian city of Calcutta from the mind of an Englishman.

While serving as President of the Marine Court of Calcutta, Henry Piddington, a former sea captain, studied the stormy weather of the Indian Ocean. He had particularly focused on the devastating tropical storm of December 1789 that inundated the coastal town of Coringa with three monstrous storm waves that killed more than 20,000.

In a presentation to the Asiatic Society of Bengal around 1840, Piddington described that 1789 storm as a "cyclone," a term derived from the Greek word "kyklon" which means moving in a circle, like the "coil of the snake." Piddington introduced the word to mariners in his 1848 book The Sailor's Horn-Book for the Law of Storms whose purpose was to explain to seaman the theory and practical use of the Law of Storms. "I suggest that we might, for all this last class of circular or highly curved winds, adopt the term 'Cyclone' from the Greek kyklos (which signifies amongst other things the coil of a snake) as expressing sufficiently the tendency to circular motion in these meteors."

In the book, he warned sailors that the storms in the Bay of Bengal blew with consistently-changing, counterclockwise winds. The book included transparent storm cards with wind arrows for use by the captain to chart a course toward safer waters by sailing with the wind and then out of harm's way.

The term gained wide acceptance, then received a broader usage. By 1856, the term was used to describe the storms we now call tornadoes: the Kansas Cyclone of Wizard of Oz fame. In many parts of the Midwest, tornado shelters are still called cyclone cellars. In 1875, the international meteorological community adopted the term to describe a low pressure system with counterclockwise wind field. Today, only tropical storms of the Indian Ocean are still called Cyclones.

Thanks for the info
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<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting nigel20:

What's the meaning of this word or you just know an extremely large word?

It's a lung disease.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


If your saying i tell myths, your wrong. again.


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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I remember this from 8th grade english: Pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis

What's the meaning of this word or you just know an extremely large word?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting nigel20:

That's ok
I always thought this was cool..Piddington had a slave ship near Madagascar and ran into a cyclone. For 3 days he was beaten around. Thinking he was many miles off course, he was amazed to find that he was only a few miles away from where he was three days before. He deduced that he had been blown around into a circle of sorts. Cyclone basically means "coil of a snake.......The Origin of Cyclone

Cyclone — the word has struck dread in the hearts of many facing its fury. For others, it means only a swirl of counterclockwise winds around a low pressure center. It first surfaced in the Indian city of Calcutta from the mind of an Englishman.

While serving as President of the Marine Court of Calcutta, Henry Piddington, a former sea captain, studied the stormy weather of the Indian Ocean. He had particularly focused on the devastating tropical storm of December 1789 that inundated the coastal town of Coringa with three monstrous storm waves that killed more than 20,000.

In a presentation to the Asiatic Society of Bengal around 1840, Piddington described that 1789 storm as a "cyclone," a term derived from the Greek word "kyklon" which means moving in a circle, like the "coil of the snake." Piddington introduced the word to mariners in his 1848 book The Sailor's Horn-Book for the Law of Storms whose purpose was to explain to seaman the theory and practical use of the Law of Storms. "I suggest that we might, for all this last class of circular or highly curved winds, adopt the term 'Cyclone' from the Greek kyklos (which signifies amongst other things the coil of a snake) as expressing sufficiently the tendency to circular motion in these meteors."

In the book, he warned sailors that the storms in the Bay of Bengal blew with consistently-changing, counterclockwise winds. The book included transparent storm cards with wind arrows for use by the captain to chart a course toward safer waters by sailing with the wind and then out of harm's way.

The term gained wide acceptance, then received a broader usage. By 1856, the term was used to describe the storms we now call tornadoes: the Kansas Cyclone of Wizard of Oz fame. In many parts of the Midwest, tornado shelters are still called cyclone cellars. In 1875, the international meteorological community adopted the term to describe a low pressure system with counterclockwise wind field. Today, only tropical storms of the Indian Ocean are still called Cyclones.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting drought:


Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!


I remember this from 8th grade english: Pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis
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376. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (932 hPa) located at 18.6S 119.6E or 215 km north northeast of Port Hedland 290 km west southwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
160 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, and may extending to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier later this morning.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga from late this morning extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds to 270 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, west Kimberley extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Broome, Telfer, Nullagine, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Woodie Woodie, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 21.4S 120.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.8S 120.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 30.6S 121.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 31.2S 127.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua continues to intensify as it tracks southeast towards an expected crossing on the east Pilbara coast this afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station. Position is based on Port Hedland radar.

Intensity is estimated of 95 knots [category 4]. Inputs to this decision are Dvorak embedded center pattern [in white] on enhanced IR to give DT=5.0 while MET=5.5 and FT/CI=5.5 considering an eye is almost discernible on enhanced infrared. Microwave imagery shows the eye wall has consolidated and with shear remaining on the order of 10kn [and now shifting to the NE]. Also, Rowley Shoals reported 938.8hPa at 1am and 75 kn mean winds at 3am and as these are hourly reports, stronger intensities are probable, hence the central pressure is estimated at 932hPa.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is generating significant waves north and east of the system.

Lua may intensify further to landfall as it takes a more south southeast track to landfall, and then weaken overland. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday as it moves south over inland parts of WA, and even after it weakens technically below cyclone intensity later on Sunday, the remains will still cause heavy rain and gusty conditions through the Goldfields of southeastern Western Australia.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Quoting hydrus:
I do not remember any more. It is interesting how the names originated.

That's ok
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Got some showers moving into the Raleigh NWS CWA...
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373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 AM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 17.0S 141.5E or 245 km east of Mornington Island and 170 km south of Kowanyamahas 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The centre of the TROPICAL LOW has been relocated further east, over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, the low is expected to move back to the west over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters over the next day or two, and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are possible between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's DisasterManagement Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.8S 141.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.2S 141.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 16.2S 140.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.3S 139.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 3.0. MET and PT suggest 2.5. Final Dvorak based on constraints.

The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low has been relocated further east over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, it is most likely to adopt a northwesterly track by Sunday as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia, taking the center back over the waters of southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by early Monday if this track change occurs.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Quoting nigel20:

Do you know the origin of the term "willy-willy"?
I do not remember any more. It is interesting how the names originated.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting nigel20:

I don't think 3 feet is too far-fetch by 2050


Newer research is predicting that temperatures will gradually rise, and then start rising more rapidly towards the end of the century as heat sinks vanish (ice) and sequestered methane starts entering the atmosphere in larger quantities.

A lot depends on how Greenland responds to the warming temperatures. Right now, it is melting faster than expected, but even with higher melting rates than now 3 feet by 2050 would be quite a stretch.

It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be on the extreme side of things.
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Quoting SPLbeater:

GFS 192 hours. If consistency shows...SE should watch?
it is that time of year. sure, why not..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting hydrus:
Hope they have there shutters up. It seems like they get whacked often over there and are prepared for the Willly-Willies...:o

Do you know the origin of the term "willy-willy"?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Quoting percylives:
Point of order.

Certain people should refrain from accusing other folks of "worying (sic) about a myth" when they are happy to subject the rest of us to their myths.

Dr. James Hansen has speculated that the rate of sea level rise is not linear and may be doubling every 10 years. If he is correct that makes sea level rise near the end of this century a major problem.

2010-2020 3mm/year = total rise 3cm
2020-2030 6mm/year = total rise 6cm + previous = 9cm.
2030-2040 12mm/year = 12cm + 9cm = 21cm by 2040
2040-2050 24mm/year = 24cm + 21 cm = 45cm by 2050
2050-2060 48mm/year = 48cm + 45cm = 93cm by 2060
2060-2070 96mm/year = 96cm +93cm = 1.89m by 2070

After this things get really crazy so I hope this never occurs.

Perhaps not worth "worying" about unless you live close to sea level. I'm 450 feet above sea level and would not consider purchasing real estate "on the ocean". But that's just me.



If your saying i tell myths, your wrong. again.
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Chicago reached 82 degrees today, an obvious record, and by nearly two weeks the earliest the temperature has been that high there. More amazingly, the city reached 81 both yesterday and Wednesday, which was itself already a record for the earliest back-to-back 80-degree days recorded there in 142 years of climate history. (Prior to this year, Chicago has only reached 80 or higher six times in the month of March, and only two of those were before the last week of the month.)

For the month of March, the ratio of broken daily high temperature records to broken daily low temperature records across the United States is 1,757 to 95, or about 18.5 to 1.

In other weather extreme news: Anchorage, Alaska, is just 3.3" short of breaking its all time seasonal snowfall record of 132.6".
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Special relativity does not hold in accelerating reference frames. The act of accelerating and decelerating affects the length contraction, time dilation, etc. that one would see at a constant velocity. So it's not quite that simple. :)

Objects can appear to be going at or faster than light due to space-time expansion. Their actual velocity is less than c, but the expansion gives the impression that they are exceeding it. It can be thought of like two cars driving away from each other on the surface of a balloon as it is inflating. The cars themselves aren't moving that fast, but the expansion can make it seem like they are moving much faster.
lol..I was thinking like a ship on a fast moving river. The river moving at the speed of light, and then the ship hits the hyperspace button. I know what you mean though. They said superluminus "values" as opposed to a single object in space breaking the "light" barrier>..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Point of order.

Certain people should refrain from accusing other folks of "worying (sic) about a myth" when they are happy to subject the rest of us to their myths.

Dr. James Hansen has speculated that the rate of sea level rise is not linear and may be doubling every 10 years. If he is correct that makes sea level rise near the end of this century a major problem.

2010-2020 3mm/year = total rise 3cm
2020-2030 6mm/year = total rise 6cm + previous = 9cm.
2030-2040 12mm/year = 12cm + 9cm = 21cm by 2040
2040-2050 24mm/year = 24cm + 21 cm = 45cm by 2050
2050-2060 48mm/year = 48cm + 45cm = 93cm by 2060
2060-2070 96mm/year = 96cm +93cm = 1.89m by 2070

After this things get really crazy so I hope this never occurs.

Perhaps not worth "worying" about unless you live close to sea level. I'm 450 feet above sea level and would not consider purchasing real estate "on the ocean". But that's just me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
i wish i had a dollar for every comment that has to do with 'what to do about gw' and 'how its happening'

if you guys spent the time you did worying about a myth on something else, we would have less stress. :)

jus sayin
so how big of an event will convince you or are you blind except for what you want to see
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021

GFS 192 hours. If consistency shows...SE should watch?
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Quoting Patrap:
Port Hedland
Australia Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 259.1 NMI



Hope they have there shutters up. It seems like they get whacked often over there and are prepared for the Willly-Willies...:o
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting hydrus:
Very interesting..I really dig this stuff. There are actually superluminal values ccuring in the Universe to speak of...How far can one travel from the Earth?

Since one might not travel faster than light, one might conclude that a human can never travel further from the earth than 40 light-years if the traveler is active between the age of 20 and 60. A traveler would then never be able to reach more than the very few star systems which exist within the limit of 20-40 light-years from the Earth. This is a mistaken conclusion; due to time dilation, the traveler can travel thousands of light-years during his 40 active years. If the spaceship accelerates at a constant 1 g (in its own changing frame of reference), it will, after 354 days, reach speeds a little under the speed of light (for an observer on Earth), and time dilation will increase his lifespan to thousands of Earth years, seen from the reference system of the Solar System, but the traveler's subjective lifespan will not thereby change. If the traveler returns to the Earth, he will land thousands of years into the future. His speed will not be seen as higher than the speed of light by observers on Earth, and the traveler will not measure their speed as being higher than the speed of light, but will see a length contraction of the universe in his direction of travel. And as the traveler turns around to return, the Earth will seem to experience much more time than the traveler does. So, although his (ordinary) speed cannot exceed c, the four-velocity (distance as seen by Earth divided by his proper (i.e. subjective) time) can be much greater than c. This is seen in statistical studies of muons traveling much further than c times their half-life (at rest), if traveling close to c..........................Universal expansion)

The expansion of the universe causes distant galaxies to recede from us faster than the speed of light, if comoving distance and cosmological time are used to calculate the speeds of these galaxies. However, in general relativity, velocity is a local notion, so velocity calculated using comoving coordinates does not have any simple relation to velocity calculated locally[17] (see comoving distance for a discussion of different notions of 'velocity' in cosmology). Rules that apply to relative velocities in special relativity, such as the rule that relative velocities cannot increase past the speed of light, do not apply to relative velocities in comoving coordinates, which are often described in terms of the "expansion of space" between galaxies. This expansion rate is thought to have been at its peak during the inflationary epoch thought to have occurred in a tiny fraction of the second after the Big Bang (models suggest the period would have been from around 10%u221236 seconds after the Big Bang to around 10%u221233 seconds), when the universe may have rapidly expanded by a factor of around 1020 to 1030.[18]

There are many galaxies visible in telescopes with red shift numbers of 1.4 or higher. All of these are currently traveling away from us at speeds greater than the speed of light. Because the Hubble parameter is decreasing with time, there can actually be cases where a galaxy that is receding from us faster than light does manage to emit a signal which reaches us eventually.[19][20] However, because the expansion of the universe is accelerating, it is projected that most galaxies will eventually cross a type of cosmological event horizon where any light they emit past that point will never be able to reach us at any time in the infinite future,[21] because the light never reaches a point where its "peculiar velocity" towards us exceeds the expansion velocity away from us (these two notions of velocity are also discussed in Comoving distance#Uses of the proper distance). The current distance to this cosmological event horizon is about 16 billion light-years, meaning that a signal from an event happening at present would eventually be able to reach us in the future if the event was less than 16 billion light-years away, but the signal would never reach us if the event was more than 16 billion light-years away. WIKI.LINK--Link


Special relativity does not hold in accelerating reference frames. The act of accelerating and decelerating affects the length contraction, time dilation, etc. that one would see at a constant velocity. So it's not quite that simple. :)

Objects can appear to be going at or faster than light due to space-time expansion. Their actual velocity is less than c, but the expansion gives the impression that they are exceeding it. It can be thought of like two cars driving away from each other on the surface of a balloon as it is inflating. The cars themselves aren't moving that fast, but the expansion can make it seem like they are moving much faster.
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Quoting nigel20:

It's nice that sections of Texas will likely see some improvement, but there will be a large area of persistent drought conditions


ya. i see persistence over me:/
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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