Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2012

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The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.


Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday

Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.

Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.

Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.

Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.

Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.

Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.

Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.

South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.

Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.

Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.


Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.

Jeff Masters

()
in bloom today (TroyA2)
in bloom today

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543. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 16.2S 115.9E or 515 km north northwest of Karratha 540 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lua has intensified to a severe tropical cyclone and is now moving towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.3S 117.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.0S 119.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.7S 119.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 30.6S 121.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded center give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET 4.5 based on a trend of D-. Final intensity estimate is 65 knots 10-min mean while ADT/AMSU intensity estimate is 70 knots.

Shear has begun to decrease [-10 knots at 18Z] and the system is heading into an area of lighter shear during the day. Conditions are favorable for further development during Friday with the system expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until landfall along the east Pilbara coast during Saturday. Shear increases as upper northwesterlies increase over the system during Saturday but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as it moves over inland parts of Western Australia.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45536
Link to my new tropical weather blog on TC Lua is you wanna check it out...:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting presslord:
Any town which can lay claim to having produced both Bob Seger and Jeff Masters must have somethin' goin' for it...

Who's Jeff Masters??
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe...but if so, there's an awful lot of "just weather" going on lately.


I wish more naivetes would follow the points you make Nea, they're always so valid.
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The preliminary numbers say 411 high temperature records were set or tied today across the United States, along with 298 high minimum records, for a total of 709. By the time final numbers are tallied, the total should come in around 900 or so, meaning today set or tied more high temperature records than any day this year or last (April 10, 2011, saw 785 high records).

For the month to-date, 1,590 new daily record highs have been set vs. 94 new daily record lows, for a ratio of 16.91 to 1. And the current heat wave is expected to last through at least the middle of next week.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Any town which can lay claim to having produced both Bob Seger and Jeff Masters must have somethin' goin' for it...
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Quoting Patrap:

Tee, hee, hee....


THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE LOW
CLOUDS THAT IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W.




Been watchin' it all day (since 5am today) ... been rather windy here today with more rain than we expected.

Wondered if anyone else noticed this little swirl ...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's strange.

GLOSEA is showing an absence in excessive precipitation across nearly the entire Atlantic during June, July, and August.

That would be very strange....
But then, this year is being pretty unpredictable so far....
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Thank you, Neo. Saw it.

The answer to your question to me. No. It's just weather.
:)
Maybe...but if so, there's an awful lot of "just weather" going on lately.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting yqt1001:
Sure is a pretty system for this intensity.



That or it's been so long since we've had anything tropical to talk about that I forget what is pretty and what is not.

It's a fairly nice system
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Quoting Neapolitan:
"Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14...back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous." Well, yesterday was a full four degrees warmer than any of the previous 8,400 or so January, February, or early March days there. If not ominous, it certainly seems startling, no?

Dr. Masters answered the rest of your questions in comment #511.


Thank you, Neo. Saw it.

The answer to your question to me. No. It's just weather.
:)
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Quoting yqt1001:
A little better than ragged.



I'd go with 80kts at this time.




Yeah...it's a pretty nice eye
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Quoting JeffMasters:


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters


Thank you. TVC sounds too cold for me.
:)
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Sure is a pretty system for this intensity.



That or it's been so long since we've had anything tropical to talk about that I forget what is pretty and what is not.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters


Please let us know if there opportunities for Portlight to help...
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That's strange.

GLOSEA is showing an absence in excessive precipitation across nearly the entire Atlantic during June, July, and August.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
A little better than ragged.



I'd go with 80kts at this time.



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Nice footage of the Dexter Tornado. It was a pretty large tornado.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


? I'm not even sure she has one :P Though there could be one in a microwave image... I haven't seen one of those lately for her.


A new microwave image(which covers 99% of the system lol) shows a ragged eye with Lua.

I might blog about that. *runs off to get some paper*
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 746 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MADISON COUNTY BETWEEN
HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN HUNTSVILLE. PUBLIC
REPORTS OF WATER COVERING ROADS AROUND HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...MADISON...REDSTONE ARSENAL AND UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA
IN HUNTSVILLE.
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Quoting aspectre:
246 nymore "I know about cement and concrete very well, I also know the types of cement. Technically I could be pumping water, aggregate, cement, plasticizers, water reducers, fly ash, retarders, fiber mesh, accelerators should I continue. You would just call it concrete."

No, you would.
Everybody else would call it a cement truck. Ya pour the cement, then wash the mixer out with water.
If you wait too long before washing, ya get concrete in the mixer. Then ya get yelled at before being ordered to hammer and chisel it out.
The only "concrete truck" that I know of is called a dump truck.
Nearly the same as the difference between dough and bread, except ya hafta add heat to cook the dough while cement "cooks"/cures itself.
A cement and aggregate and water mixture is called cement while it's still wet, until it's cured beyond plasticity. In (subconcious) recognition that whatever gets stuck in it is gonna be "glued" to the resulting mass after drying
Concrete is created when the cement cures&dries.

Ya pour, level, and finish cement. Ya either drill, grind, cut, sledge, or jackhammer concrete.
You cement in a sign post or a fence post. If you start with concrete, it's best to have straps or bolts already cemented into it to tie your post to the concrete.
Hey don't take word of a concrete superintendent what concrete is. Here maybe you will take it from the Portland Cement Association

img src="What is the difference between cement and concrete? Although the terms cement and concrete often are used interchangeably, cement is actually an ingredient of concrete. Concrete is basically a mixture of aggregates and paste. The aggregates are sand and gravel or crushed stone; the paste is water and portland cement. Concrete gets stronger as it gets older. Portland cement is not a brand name, but the generic term for the type of cement used in virtually all concrete, just as stainless is a type of steel and sterling a type of silver. Cement comprises from 10 to 15 percent of the concrete mix, by volume. Through a process called hydration, the cement and water harden and bind the aggregates into a rocklike mass. This hardening process continues for years meaning that concrete gets stronger as it gets older. So, there is no such thing as a cement sidewalk, or a cement mixer; the proper terms are concrete sidewalk and concrete mixer. ">
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting SPLbeater:
Lua has nice eye...

TC Lua is predicted to become a cat 3, I hope the peole in the projected path is prepared
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Quoting Patrap:
With this kinda Spring shaping up...




"I think we're gonna need a bigger blog."

good evening again...that's a nice one Patrap
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Quoting JeffMasters:


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters


My apologies, it was a typo. I meant to say 42 the whole time.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Lua has nice eye...


? I'm not even sure she has one :P Though there could be one in a microwave image... I haven't seen one of those lately for her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lua has nice eye...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting JeffMasters:
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters

Glad to here he's okay Dr. Glad to here no reports of injuries at all, at least so far.
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Check out the outflow,

you can see where it initiated storms in TN

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
463. Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone who says 42 degrees above average is a "normal variation in weather patterns" needs a psychologist to examine them.

Doc M wrote: Traverse City, Michigan which hit 81F--a temperature 42F above average, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.

What I'm not understanding is this: What is the reason for a comparison between a high temp reading and an average temp which includes low temps? 81 minus 42, so 39 is average temp for Mar 14 in Traverse City, MI? Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14, even for all the years going back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous.

But then, maybe I need a psychologist.
:)
"Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14...back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous." Well, yesterday was a full four degrees warmer than any of the previous 8,400 or so January, February, or early March days there. If not ominous, it certainly seems startling, no?

Dr. Masters answered the rest of your questions in comment #511.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
With this kinda Spring shaping up...




"I think we're gonna need a bigger blog."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
511. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
463. Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone who says 42 degrees above average is a "normal variation in weather patterns" needs a psychologist to examine them.

Doc M wrote: Traverse City, Michigan which hit 81F--a temperature 42F above average, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.

What I'm not understanding is this: What is the reason for a comparison between a high temp reading and an average temp which includes low temps? 81 minus 42, so 39 is average temp for Mar 14 in Traverse City, MI? Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14, even for all the years going back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous.

But then, maybe I need a psychologist.
:)


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters
2 rotations now, the front storm is starting to hook but is moving off shore again.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting ClimateChange:
These tornadoes are a direct result of the unnatural, globally-warmed atmosphere present over southeast Michigan this afternoon. If people want to see the effects of climate change, look no further than Dexter, Michigan.


That is not a valid statement. You can not casually attribute a specific weather event to climate change.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1493
508. JeffMasters (Admin)
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters
Quoting NavarreMark:
This weekend is the day time race at Bristol TN. Unfortunately, I'm not gonna be able to make it up there this year. Just thinking about the sound of those big V-8s and the smell of the burned rubber sends a tingle up my leg.

Theres nothing else like it in the whole world. Only in America. The land of the free and the home of the brave. Makes me thank the LORD that I was born here.

Anybody from those parts know what the weathers gonna be like this weekend?


Maybe try the lil Box at dee top o dee page.. its kinda like Magic.

put in, "Bristol TN"

Sunday

Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 68F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.



"Geaux Jr."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
(You might want to "see also" MCD 260 which also addressed the weather in the thumb of Michigan.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...

VALID 160002Z - 160100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76
CONTINUES.

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WW AREA. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER DARK. THE WW MAY BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF A CONFLUENT ZONE...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT
WAYNE IND TO EAST OF SAGINAW MI. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY
MAINTAIN ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL COOLING
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME LESS
PROBABLE WITH TIME. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE THAT LED TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LOCATED PER 00Z WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MI
AND SRN ONTARIO. WITH ITS EWD PROGRESSION...TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN
ITS WAKE MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF MI...WITH A FRONT STILL SITUATED ACROSS
THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF IMPLIED
ASCENT NOW APPROACHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES/WI...WHICH MAY STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AFTER
DARK.

..HURLBUT.. 03/16/2012
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Tee, hee, hee....


THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE LOW
CLOUDS THAT IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
I'm really surprised to see any thunderstorm activity over Central Florida today due to the strong ridge aloft, I have a small but potent thunderstorm cell producing some loud thunder just northeast of me right near Tampa Bay.
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Medium rotation on the shoreline N of Toledo:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
One can almost hear Troy Howling, "Look at da size of dat sucker' "


WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Description: Latest CME-based model run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128620
correction
over three hrs a 23.30 degree temp. change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
The SPC has received three tornado reports from Michigan, and they don't appear to be duplicates: Ida, Lapeer, and Washtenaw (Dexter).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
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we are now 8 degrees below the overnight forecasted low of 52
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
Quoting Patrap:

15 Mar 2012 23:40 UTC [1 km resolution]

Image centered at Latitude= 42.16° N Longitude= 83.77° W (X=306 Y=125)



Not sure these are really, "summer thunderstorms", diurnal tstorms are usually alone, and these are forming in large cloudmasses.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
495. LRC
Quoting RitaEvac:
Makes you wonder if we should embrace it instead of people fearing it. As if the planet knows the population of man has tri-fold and knows to warm weather farther north and earlier to help feed the population. Maybe nature knows best

I live in southern Ontario and hear this kind of talk a lot. In theory this would mean that the open land north of me could become prime land for farming as the growing season becomes long enough. If you look at your geology most of Canada is VERY poor growing area as it is mostly either rock or acidic bog. Then south of me (if the climatologists are even close to right) farmers can look forward to flash flooding and droughts.
Sorry but the prospects for better growing area appearing is not in the cards in NA by the look of things.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EDT Thursday 15 March 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.05 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 45.5°F
Dewpoint: 39.6°F
Humidity: 80 %
Wind: SSW 2 mph


TEMPS STILL FALLING
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54272
463. Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone who says 42 degrees above average is a "normal variation in weather patterns" needs a psychologist to examine them.

Doc M wrote: Traverse City, Michigan which hit 81F--a temperature 42F above average, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.

What I'm not understanding is this: What is the reason for a comparison between a high temp reading and an average temp which includes low temps? 81 minus 42, so 39 is average temp for Mar 14 in Traverse City, MI? Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14, even for all the years going back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous.

But then, maybe I need a psychologist.
:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.