Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2012

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The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.


Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday

Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.

Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.

Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.

Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.

Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.

Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.

Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.

South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.

Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.

Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.


Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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The SPC says:




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151808Z - 152015Z

PULSE TSTMS WITH A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISKS WILL PRIMARILY BE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE TSTMS
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.


CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS
THAT HAD PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MID-MS AND
PARTS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. VWP/UPSTREAM PROFILER DATA INDICATE
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WHICH HAS LIMITED EFFECTIVE SHEAR LARGELY TO
AROUND 10-20 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURES CONSISTING OF PULSE TO OCCASIONAL MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
MODES. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN
12Z AREA RAOBS...MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS OVERTURNED.

..GRAMS.. 03/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...L MK...OHX...
IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know that the SPC said a watch was unlikely, but they may need to reconsider with 10 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings out in a relatively small area...




Yah but it is still summer pop up storms, some die right after the warning is issued, and they are very small, so yould probably need 20 or so at one for a watch.
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And climate change is not just a typical environmental issue. It's not even a mere matter of national security. It's a matter of LIFE AND DEATH. Even now, while ostensibly little is being done, government scientists are conducting research on geoengineering in the hopes of averting catastrophe. The government realizes there is no hope in preventing CO2 levels from reaching the danger -- it's already too late! Alternative fuels and energy efficiency sound good, but they won't solve this problem. If the geoengineering efforts fail, we are doomed to a period of strife and unrest. What will you do when the breadbasket of the country is no longer fertile? When potable water is no longer available at the turn of a tap? What preparations are you making? Everybody should be preparing for the coming problems NOW. Waiting 10 or 20 years may be too late!
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I know that the SPC said a watch was unlikely, but they may need to reconsider with 10 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings out in a relatively small area...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
The reality is climate change is going to be way worse than even the so-called alarmists believe. Did you know the oft-quoted 0.8C temperature rise is likely much lower than what has actually occurred? If you plug erroneously low numbers into a model, you get erroneously low forecasts.

Back before the NWS started standardizing things in the 40s and 50s, most temperature records were taken on rooftops in city centers. Cincinnati's old records were taken atop the FernBank building. Cleveland's old records were taken atop various buildings downtown. We now know that solar radiation penetrating the dark roof surfaces can lead to temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than actual readings -- not to mention temperatures are seldom taken in the city anymore due to the urban heat island effect. This is why locations with more continuous records, such as New York's Central Park or Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts show much more warming than surrounding sites that have disjointed records. In reality, the climate has already likely warmed close to 2C and that's just since the late 1800s. If records extended a little further back, the warming would be even more pronounced. The Army Corps used to take observations of the weather at Fort Snelling as early as the 1820s, near the site of present-day MSP airport. Those records show that in the mid 1800s, it would be almost unheard of at this time of the year not to have snow covering the ground there and the Mississippi River chock full of ice. If someone could invent a time machine, I think a lot of skepticism would go by the wayside.
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To borrow an analogy from Dr. James Hansen, we have loaded the dice. And now that loaded dice keeps coming up on the loaded side. Enjoy. This airmass is almost certainly not of natural origin, as it's just so anomalous that I don't believe it could occur in the absence of elevated CO2. The water temps on Lake Erie are at unprecedentedly high levels for this time of the year. At Buffalo, they've been keeping continuous records since 1927 -- and never has the water temp there exceeded 39 degrees in the month of March. Never. It's already 37 (a daily record high) and with daily forecast mean temps across the lower Lakes perhaps as high as 55-60, the water temps will be soaring. It could reach 45 before the end of the month. Not to mention the all-time record high water temp off Buffalo of 80 was set just last summer. No urban heat island effect 30' below the lake surface.
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T'storms blowing up every where:

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Quoting LargoFl:
What are the chances, with the warmer temps, especially in the gulf of mexico, that we may just see an earlier start to the tropical hurricane season this year?



The ENSO regions are getting cooler again
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Thats pretty warm for them up north, but consider it topped... Here in Austin, we were at 96F last month for a day and the two days previous were in the mid to upper 80's. Just thought i'd throw it out there.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a very interesting paper, particularly the authors' bold conclusion:

"We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were 'caused' by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming."

It's not published, as Dr. Masters noted, so it may change some. But, again: that's a bold statement. I read one meteorologist yesterday saying the same thing about this week's unprecedented (in record history) U.S. heat wave.
we have turned the earth into one large field experiment and we are currently awaiting our end result
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.
That's a very interesting paper, particularly the authors' bold conclusion:

"We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were 'caused' by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming."

It's not published, as Dr. Masters noted, so it may change some. But, again: that's a bold statement. I read one meteorologist yesterday saying the same thing about this week's unprecedented (in record history) U.S. heat wave.
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Later guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
Today's outlook...

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There was light snow to begin with, now there are melting temperatures in March. What does that mean as far as water in the spring and summer? Is there enough to keep the rivers flowing?
Will the switch to Neutral ENSO conditions help or hurt the dry Midwest and parched patches in the south?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Also, OSHA's safe exposure limits of indoor CO2 levels are based on 350 - 400 ppm of normal atmospheric CO2 levels. I suspect that OSHA may need to rewrite those indoor exposure limits sometime in the near future?

Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
The Earth is getting warmer, soon to be too warm to live on? I guess that means The Good Lord is coming soon, and boy I can't wait to meet him!


I am delighted that you wish to meet the Lord soon. Will you be upset if there are some of us that are not in such a rush to do so? I mean that there is no reason that you should try to drag the rest of us to your meeting with the Lord.
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Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
The Earth is getting warmer, soon to be too warm to live on? I guess that means The Good Lord is coming soon, and boy I can't wait to meet him!
dec 21st
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39309
What are the chances, with the warmer temps, especially in the gulf of mexico, that we may just see an earlier start to the tropical hurricane season this year?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39309
The Earth is getting warmer, soon to be too warm to live on? I guess that means The Good Lord is coming soon, and boy I can't wait to meet him!
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Quoting nigel20:

We are nearing 400ppm co2, a level which scientist say could make the greenland ice sheet unstable


Also, OSHA's safe exposure limits of indoor CO2 levels are based on 350 - 400 ppm of normal atmospheric CO2 levels. I suspect that OSHA may need to rewrite those indoor exposure limits sometime in the near future?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Breaking news: NOAA issued Spring outlook



nice to see at least half of texas will get rain this year, they really suffered last year
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Quoting Patrap:
co2now.org



We are nearing 400ppm co2, a level which scientist say could make the greenland ice sheet unstable
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161

Quoting Neapolitan:


BTW: which "crook" do you think needs impeaching? I've got my own list; it would be interesting to see whether and how it differs from yours. ;-)Thus speaketh the ostrich. ;-)
I think it would be much shorter and easier to just list the ones we don't want to impeach.  :D
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z GFS takes Lua to 968mb before landfall... She could be a dangerous storm for Australia

Oh, and I forgot to mention the 0z Euro takes it to 936 mb :)
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The 12z GFS takes Lua to 968mb before landfall... She could be a dangerous storm for Australia
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SolarHam.com

A Moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm is now in progress.

Aurora contacts on 6 Meters (50mhz) are being made by many Ham Radio Operators in the northern parts of Europe.

If you are high in latitude and it is dark outside where you live, be on the lookout for visible Aurora.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
got to go be back in a bit get a few things ready in case storms blow up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54473
co2now.org


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
What the PTB know and the Gen Pop dosent is this.

pssst, their aint nuff resources left to Run any economy to pay off the debt.

Well save for War,

..which if you look carefully, is being pushed with Iran by the far "Loon" Right.

And that alone, drives Oil speculation UP and thus, Gas prices.

So remember dat when you get those "talking Pernts" in da morning.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Lua:
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Quoting zinfan94:
This storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest is one big storm... I'm in Seattle, and it rains up here; but I don't recall seeing storms with this diameter very often; this thing could be 1500-2000 miles across.

Is this normal?


that was a fun little squall line that just went through the metro area huh ?

NWS put out a short term forecast for possible small hail and high winds.
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Quoting NativeSun:
Enjoy the warm weather while you can,a gas CO2 that makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere is not the driver in the climate change debate. Something else is causing this, the Sun the ENSO phases Methane maybe etc. The main reason for climate chane by humans would be there are over 7 billion people on this small planet. Over time nature will take care of the climate change.


The question remains as to if nature allows us to continue on with our journey when "nature will take care of the climate change".

I do understand your belief in such a small amount of CO2 in the atmosphere could not have such dire consequences. What do you think this amount should be before it becomes detrimental to us? We will draw up a petition to present before nature. We should also rewrite the laws of physics to accommodate this belief as well.

All I am trying to say is that the laws of physics have been tested countless times and, as of yet, have not been disproved. What we think they should be has no relevance in as to what they actually are.
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Quoting robodave:
I think all of the worrying about what humans have done to cause the global warming is more dangerous than any global warming that might actually exist. I can't list how many people I know who've destroyed their life with worry and anxiety. I think part of this is related to our evolutionary history. For instance, we used to run from lions and bears and the harsh conditions of the wild lands. Life was dangerous during that period. But in the modern world things have quieted down significantly. No more do lions prowl or does the night engulf everything. No more do thousands and thousands of people die from plague. I think that modern people have replaced these primeval fears that no longer have driver with something more modern. So lions and bears have been replaced by things like human-caused global warming or terrorists or thieves or polluters and so on. It's a kind of paranoia that sticks with us in our genetics. One only has to imagine what it's like to be chased by a lion to understand why this fear is stored in our DNA. It must be a kind of defense mechanism. But it could also be a blind defense mechanism that's no longer helpful. For example, the body used to store fat for the winter months. This was important because seasons had a tremendous impact on the activities of people. However, in our modern world, this is not needed. But our DNA still tells our body to store the fat for winter. So while DNA is not absolutely blind, it can be a hit-miss sort of thing. I think that's what's happening with our fear.

And I think that humans themselves have a tendency to overrate themselves. There's a very common feeling in academia that humans are becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous. It seems that every study that's performed these days has to blame humans. Humans have replaced the gods of the past that would visit their wrath on the earth. It's funny because earth could, in a short time, fling us off its back. Earth has been through extreme events in its history. This epoch of human activity is not special. There have been meteor impacts and super volcanic eruptions and great shifts in atmosphere content. Earth survived those. To think that humans appearing on the scene suddenly changes everything is just another indication that humans think too highly of themselves. They have no humility.

I think there might be a small human-influence on climate but I'm not ready to sell the house on it. There're far more important things in life that we have to give our attention to, that're much more tangible and more immediate in nature. We're all faced with them each day. Everything from policing our streets to healing the sick to impeaching a crook to educating our kids to strengthening our economy and so forth. These things aren't complex and abstract like human-caused climate change. So we should be careful when considering complex issues such as this when weighing its importance with other matters. If we choose wrongly, a hospital might not get built, a kid might not go to school, you might lose your job, and so on. There's no debate about this. No doubts. This is real life, not a game.
Since you can't list how many people you "know who've destroyed their life with worry and anxiety" over global warming, can you name at least one person, and how their destruction came about? No names, of course; just a case study.

I disagree that climate change is "abstract and complex"; at its most basic, it is far easier to comprehend than either health care or education or whatever. In a nutshell: when there is more solar radiation entering earth's atmosphere than there is escaping it, the temperature rises. And the trillions of liters of CO2 we pump into the environment each day is making that happen. That's it, really; everything else is details--though well-fleshed out details supported by millions of observations and multiple independent lines of research.

The thing is, a growing number of scientists--and others--are coming to the realization that anthropogenic climate change is one of the most dire threats humanity has faced in modern times. If we spotted an asteroid that would hit the planet 30 years from now and cause the chaos and disruption climate change will likely bring, we'd be going out of our minds trying to blow it up or alter its course. Well, climate change is our 'asteroid", and the time to act on it is now...

BTW: which "crook" do you think needs impeaching? I've got my own list; it would be interesting to see whether and how it differs from yours. ;-)
Quoting SPLbeater:


never have i worried about running out of natural resources or global warming. When the Lord created the earth, he put enough resources and whatever is needed to sustain the population of the earth. nothing will run out, we wont all die from warming, so on so forth . :D


better then worrying, eh?
Thus speaketh the ostrich. ;-)
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This storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest is one big storm... I'm in Seattle, and it rains up here; but I don't recall seeing storms with this diameter very often; this thing could be 1500-2000 miles across.

Is this normal?
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Quoting wxmod:
I've had a wood stove for 40 years. The creosote that collects on the stove pipe used to be crispy and brittle. For the past few years it has been drippy and tar-like, no matter what kind of wood I burn. Has anyone else noticed this?


Found this on line...

"Anytime wood is burned in a fireplace, soot and creosote are produced. Soot is sticky, black carbon particles, and creosote is an oily, flammable liquid tar.

Low-burning, smoldering fires produce more creosote than high-temperature fires. And woods such as beech, pecan, pine and cedar, which create more creosote in your chimney than low-sap, low-oil woods such as oak. Make sure, too, that wood has been aged and dried, or seasoned. Dried wood burns better and generates less creosote."

http://www.life123.com/home-garden/home-repair/ch imney-cleaning-repair/chimney-cleaning-tips-to-pre vent-fire.shtml

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Quoting nigel20:

I'm good


Good to hear that! Always pleasant to hear that a fellow blogger is having a nice evening!

I be back l8tr guys, got some work 2 do. :)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting robodave:
I think all of the worrying about what humans have done to cause the global warming is more dangerous than any global warming that might actually exist. I can't list how many people I know who've destroyed their life with worry and anxiety.

And I think that humans themselves have a tendency to overrate themselves. There's a very common feeling in academia that humans are becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous. It seems that every study that's performed these days has to blame humans. Humans have replaced the gods of the past that would visit their wrath on the earth. It's funny because earth could, in a short time, fling us off its back. Earth has been through extreme events in its history. This epoch of human activity is not special. There have been meteor impacts and super volcanic eruptions and great shifts in atmosphere content. Earth survived those. To think that humans appearing on the scene suddenly changes everything is just another indication that humans think too highly of themselves. They have no humility.

I think there might be a small human-influence on climate but I'm not ready to sell the house on it. There're far more important things in life that we have to give our attention to, that're much more tangible and more immediate in nature. We're all faced with them each day. Everything from policing our streets to healing the sick to impeaching a crook to educating our kids to strengthening our economy and so forth. These things aren't complex and abstract like climate change. So we should be careful when considering complex issues such as earth's climate when weighing its importance with other matters. If we choose wrongly, a hospital might not get built, a kid might not go to school, you might not have job, and so on. Be careful.


never have i worried about running out of natural resources or global warming. When the Lord created the earth, he put enough resources and whatever is needed to sustain the population of the earth. nothing will run out, we wont all die from warming, so on so forth . :D


better then worrying, eh?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486


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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a two dollar coin


Thanks! So much to learn, so little time.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


good, good...how u doin?

sounds like u did nicely! I didnt hear you mention any fatalities, which i cant do...:/

I'm good
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
impeaching a crook

Bush is no longer President, but were working on that and Mr. Cheney.

Thanx.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Man can't survive in those freezing conditions, better to be warm


Just out of curiosity, do you work in the formerly known as Enron building?
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Quoting wxmod:
I've had a wood stove for 40 years. The creosote that collects on the stove pipe used to be crispy and brittle. For the past few years it has been drippy and tar-like, no matter what kind of wood I burn. Has anyone else noticed this?


Might that come from cooler burning? Any chance the air intake on your stove is restricted?

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Quoting wxmod:
I've had a wood stove for 40 years. The creosote that collects on the stove pipe used to be crispy and brittle. For the past few years it has been drippy and tar-like, no matter what kind of wood I burn. Has anyone else noticed this?


That is really weird. Different wood aging or something?
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WBOCTV16
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54473
Breaking news: NOAA issued Spring outlook



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting nigel20:

Hey SPL...how are you doing?


good, good...how u doin?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


On april 15, a supercell hit just south of me, had baseball sized hail, rained here,(although baseball sized hail did hit where about 700-100 kids were camping)
and on april 27, it rained moderately and thundered.
Boring.


So for me it was uneventful.


sounds like u did nicely! I didnt hear you mention any fatalities, which i cant do...:/
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
I think all of the worrying about what humans have done to cause the global warming is more dangerous than any global warming that might actually exist. I can't list how many people I know who've destroyed their life with worry and anxiety. I think part of this is related to our evolutionary history. For instance, we used to run from lions and bears and the harsh conditions of the wild lands. Life was dangerous during that period. But in the modern world things have quieted down significantly. No more do lions prowl or does the night engulf everything. No more do thousands and thousands of people die from plague. I think that modern people have replaced these primeval fears that no longer have driver with something more modern. So lions and bears have been replaced by things like human-caused global warming or terrorists or thieves or polluters and so on. It's a kind of paranoia that sticks with us in our genetics. One only has to imagine what it's like to be chased by a lion to understand why this fear is stored in our DNA. It must be a kind of defense mechanism. But it could also be a blind defense mechanism that's no longer helpful. For example, the body used to store fat for the winter months. This was important because seasons had a tremendous impact on the activities of people. However, in our modern world, this is not needed. But our DNA still tells our body to store the fat for winter. So while DNA is not absolutely blind, it can be a hit-miss sort of thing. I think that's what's happening with our fear.

And I think that humans themselves have a tendency to overrate themselves. There's a very common feeling in academia that humans are becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous. It seems that every study that's performed these days has to blame humans. Humans have replaced the gods of the past that would visit their wrath on the earth. It's funny because earth could, in a short time, fling us off its back. Earth has been through extreme events in its history. This epoch of human activity is not special. There have been meteor impacts and super volcanic eruptions and great shifts in atmosphere content. Earth survived those. To think that humans appearing on the scene suddenly changes everything is just another indication that humans think too highly of themselves. They have no humility.

I think there might be a small human-influence on climate but I'm not ready to sell the house on it. There're far more important things in life that we have to give our attention to, that're much more tangible and more immediate in nature. We're all faced with them each day. Everything from policing our streets to healing the sick to impeaching a crook to educating our kids to strengthening our economy and so forth. These things aren't complex and abstract like human-caused climate change. So we should be careful when considering complex issues such as this when weighing its importance with other matters. If we choose wrongly, a hospital might not get built, a kid might not go to school, you might lose your job, and so on. There's no debate about this. No doubts. This is real life, not a game.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.