Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2012

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The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.


Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday

Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.

Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.

Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.

Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.

Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.

Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.

Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.

South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.

Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.

Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.


Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.

Jeff Masters

()
in bloom today (TroyA2)
in bloom today

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Quoting LargoFl:
its funny you know, we have been talking about and denying the validity of the Mayan calendar for years, but take notice, the subtle changes in the weather, getting stronger, lil by lil. perhaps they knew way back then, about the weathers changes and knew, it would get bad at the end of the calendar, not destruction as such but a mighty change from the weather patterns we have become used to..who knows, with the warming trend that is happening now, maybe..we will have less winter and longer summers..maybe, eventually, no winter at all?...hmmm something to think about, we shall see in the next year or so if this proves to be the case


I think the Mayan calendar ends when it does because they ran out of rock. I mean you can only get so many years on a calendar and then you need to start a new stone. As a civilization, the Mayan era ended long before now. although there are Mayan descendants living around their pyramids such as Chichen Itza, in the same type of housing they used when their culture was at it's height. Just like the temptation to view a huge triangle on the sun as a "sign" or omen of something, it's more logical to think the rock was just too small.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


That is a fairly bold statement. You'd need some pretty strong evidence to back that up. Such attributions are usually quite difficult to do in climate studies. We'll have to wait and see what happens during the peer-review.
Not necessarily caused, but definitely influenced...
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Quoting nymore:
Where I live it is frozen right now

Just out of general interest?
Where are you?
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Ever wonder what a solar storm sounds like? Check out the video below.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a very interesting paper, particularly the authors' bold conclusion:

"We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were 'caused' by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming."

It's not published, as Dr. Masters noted, so it may change some. But, again: that's a bold statement. I read one meteorologist yesterday saying the same thing about this week's unprecedented (in record history) U.S. heat wave.


That is a fairly bold statement. You'd need some pretty strong evidence to back that up. Such attributions are usually quite difficult to do in climate studies. We'll have to wait and see what happens during the peer-review.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Nino 3.4 index

Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting 2010hurricane:



The ENSO regions are getting cooler again
i hope your right on that one and ty
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Current Mayan Date

baktun 12 katun 19 tun 19 uinal 3 kin 19
Haab: 7 Cumku
Tzolkin: 9 Cauac
Mayan epoch: 11 Aug, 3114 B.C.E.

...date based on local time 2:53:21pm, Thu Mar 15, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
..surely the tree's are the right Height..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting SPLbeater:


LOL!!! nice one
its funny you know, we have been talking about and denying the validity of the Mayan calendar for years, but take notice, the subtle changes in the weather, getting stronger, lil by lil. perhaps they knew way back then, about the weathers changes and knew, it would get bad at the end of the calendar, not destruction as such but a mighty change from the weather patterns we have become used to..who knows, with the warming trend that is happening now, maybe..we will have less winter and longer summers..maybe, eventually, no winter at all?...hmmm something to think about, we shall see in the next year or so if this proves to be the case
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I can't wait to see the big guns of Tropical Weather comming soon,such as 456,Drakoen,Levi32,Hurricane23,CybrTeddy among others and of course the Doc.


wat about meeee lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting robodave:
I think all of the worrying about what humans have done to cause the global warming is more dangerous than any global warming that might actually exist. I can't list how many people I know who've destroyed their life with worry and anxiety. I think part of this is related to our evolutionary history. For instance, we used to run from lions and bears and the harsh conditions of the wild lands. Life was dangerous during that period. But in the modern world things have quieted down significantly. No more do lions prowl or does the night engulf everything. No more do thousands and thousands of people die from plague. I think that modern people have replaced these primeval fears that no longer have driver with something more modern. So lions and bears have been replaced by things like human-caused global warming or terrorists or thieves or polluters and so on. It's a kind of paranoia that sticks with us in our genetics. One only has to imagine what it's like to be chased by a lion to understand why this fear is stored in our DNA. It must be a kind of defense mechanism. But it could also be a blind defense mechanism that's no longer helpful. For example, the body used to store fat for the winter months. This was important because seasons had a tremendous impact on the activities of people. However, in our modern world, this is not needed. But our DNA still tells our body to store the fat for winter. So while DNA is not absolutely blind, it can be a hit-miss sort of thing. I think that's what's happening with our fear.

And I think that humans themselves have a tendency to overrate themselves. There's a very common feeling in academia that humans are becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous. It seems that every study that's performed these days has to blame humans. Humans have replaced the gods of the past that would visit their wrath on the earth. It's funny because earth could, in a short time, fling us off its back. Earth has been through extreme events in its history. This epoch of human activity is not special. There have been meteor impacts and super volcanic eruptions and great shifts in atmosphere content. Earth survived those. To think that humans appearing on the scene suddenly changes everything is just another indication that humans think too highly of themselves. They have no humility.

I think there might be a small human-influence on climate but I'm not ready to sell the house on it. There're far more important things in life that we have to give our attention to, that're much more tangible and more immediate in nature. We're all faced with them each day. Everything from policing our streets to healing the sick to impeaching a crook to educating our kids to strengthening our economy and so forth. These things aren't complex and abstract like human-caused climate change. So we should be careful when considering complex issues such as this when weighing its importance with other matters. If we choose wrongly, a hospital might not get built, a kid might not go to school, you might lose your job, and so on. There's no debate about this. No doubts. This is real life, not a game.


In real life, there are consequences for your actions. Climate change has some serious consequences, which you seem to pay no attention to.

It is clear you have not researched the subject very thoroughly, and your arguments are comprised of emotional appeals with no evidence. This is hardly a convincing, especially when faced with the enormous amount of research on the subject and historical precedent of humans significantly impacting the environment.

You are basically arguing that we should not worry about long term problems and instead only concern ourselves with the short term. This, at best, is naive. Climate shifts have far more dramatic impacts than whether or not a school gets built. In the past, entire civilizations have been destroyed by changes in climate patterns, even ones on a local scale.

Or perhaps you're discounting the economical impacts that droughts may have, or the impacts of tropical diseases (like malaria) moving northward, or invasive species (like the bark beetle currently destroying forests in Colorado) wrecking havoc, or the impacts of rising and warmer seas. None of these are trivial issues to deal with.

We do have a choice. We will either act like responsible adults and address the issues, or we'll act like spoiled brats and continue recklessly plundering our natural resources until the fecal matter hits the turbine. I'm hoping for the former, though given human history it will most likely be the latter.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Anyone who thinks this record heat is so wonderful is badly mistaken. The potential for severe weather associated with this heat at this time of year is enormous. Nothing good comes from it. Go back to the year 1974.. after record heat in March, we had the super outbreak of tornadoes in the first days of April of that year. In the year 2007, the March mean temperature was 58.6 degrees here, and the following April we had a devastating freeze that ruined the fruit crops and on April 7 of that year we had a period of moderate snowfall (very unusual for here in Northwest Georgia) I have been keeping detailed weather records for 40 years and that March 2007 record was the warmest ever in that 40 year period. Halfway through this month, the average temperature so far is 57.0 here, and if this trend continues, it will be warmer than March 2007.
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SH172012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) LUA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know some of you guys have already seen this, but look who is coming back for this upcoming hurricane season.

"Hi guys, can never seem to stay away from the site regardless the length of time. My blog returns later this year and in the year of 2012 where I will post be posting on topics such as tropical weather and climate, the usual forecasts and tutorials along with a new Facebook page...will keep you guys posted." -- Weather456


I can't wait to see the big guns of Tropical Weather comming soon,such as 456,Drakoen,Levi32,Hurricane23,CybrTeddy among others and of course the Doc.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14321
Where I live average ice out date is April 26. If I drive less than five minutes I can spit on the Mississippi River ice for you
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177. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.6S 114.5E or 620 km north northwest of Karratha 680 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: TT4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lua has begun to move towards the southeast and it is expected to accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone during this morning and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Cape Leveque by late Friday or early Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend inland through the central and eastern Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne and far northwest Interior during Saturday and early Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the northeastern Gascoyne and the far northwestern Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.8S 116.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.1S 118.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.1S 120.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 29.5S 120.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on 1352 AM UTC AMSUB and 1610 AM UTC microwave pass as well as enhanced infrared satellite imagery.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 1.2 giving a DT of 4.0. Recent enhanced infrared imagery have shown a possible ragged eye, but this still yields a DT of 4.0. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D-, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. ADT is running low at T3.2 with a relatively poor final position. CIMMS AMSU is estimating 72 knot 1-min mean winds, which seems a little high given the microwave still does not show a closed eye feature.

Final intensity estimate remains at 60 knots 10-min mean.

At 12Z CIMMS shear analysis indicated the shear had increased slightly to 15 knots. Shear is expected to reduce during Friday and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45603
Quoting ClimateChange:
Yeah, the urban heat island explains why the Mighty Mississipi no longer remains frozen from mid November through April. Makes sense to me.
Where I live it is frozen right now
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Yeah, the urban heat island explains why the Mighty Mississipi no longer remains frozen from mid November through April. Makes sense to me.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The SPC is so contradictory sometimes =P

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
305 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

What?


They are backup for SPC, may be just a monthly/quartly exercise.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

TNC187-151930-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-120315T1930Z/
WILLIAMSON TN-
220 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WILLIAMSON
COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 10 MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 210 PM CST...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED
NEAR LEIPERS FORK WITH THIS STORM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WILLIAMSON
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8684 3604 8680 3602 8676 3592 8669
3579 8704 3582 8712 3591 8718 3600 8704
3599 8703 3605 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 247DEG 8KT 3590 8701

$$
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I know some of you guys have already seen this, but look who is coming back for this upcoming hurricane season.

"Hi guys, can never seem to stay away from the site regardless the length of time. My blog returns later this year and in the year of 2012 where I will post be posting on topics such as tropical weather and climate, the usual forecasts and tutorials along with a new Facebook page...will keep you guys posted." -- Weather456
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275




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Quoting ClimateChange:


Well, this might be a good site to start: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1820.html. Data for Fort Snelling, at the site of present-day MSP Airport, since 1820. The thermometer was exposed to sunlight at times in the early years and show some spuriously high figures, but the accompanying observations are unmistakable -- and describe a climate vastly different from the one today.

You could also try the NCDC climate data archives. I'm not doing your research for you. I found phenological data in a 1906 State of Ohio climate summary showing leaf-out dates in Ohio in those days. Northern Ohio experienced leaf out in the first or second week of May... now it's like the second or third week of April. And recently it's been more first or second week -- this year leaves will probably be visible before the end of March!
everything will be in full bloom by mid next week from central grt lakes westward south and east and maybe even north of lakes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54371
Quoting ClimateChange:


Well, this might be a good site to start: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1820.html. Data for Fort Snelling, at the site of present-day MSP Airport, since 1820. The thermometer was exposed to sunlight at times in the early years and show some spuriously high figures, but the accompanying observations are unmistakable -- and describe a climate vastly different from the one today.

You could also try the NCDC climate data archives. I'm not doing your research for you. I found phenological data in a 1906 State of Ohio climate summary showing leaf-out dates in Ohio in those days. Northern Ohio experienced leaf out in the first or second week of May... now it's like the second or third week of April. And recently it's been more first or second week -- this year leaves will probably be visible before the end of March!
Well since I live pretty close to there. That Thermometer could only get closer to downtown if it was sitting on the IDS tower. I wonder how much the city has grown since then. Maybe we could move it to the mall of america about a half mile away.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting nymore:
What data from the 1800's. Please show me the data from 1800 to into the 1880's for the entire USA


Well, this might be a good site to start: http://www.climatestations.com/minneapolis/histori cal-writeups/minnesota-weather-for-1820.html. Data for Fort Snelling, at the site of present-day MSP Airport, since 1820. The thermometer was exposed to sunlight at times in the early years and show some spuriously high figures, but the accompanying observations are unmistakable -- and describe a climate vastly different from the one today.

You could also try the NCDC climate data archives. I'm not doing your research for you. I found phenological data in a 1906 State of Ohio climate summary showing leaf-out dates in Ohio in those days. Northern Ohio experienced leaf out in the first or second week of May... now it's like the second or third week of April. And recently it's been more first or second week -- this year leaves will probably be visible before the end of March!
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167. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


Found this on line...

"Anytime wood is burned in a fireplace, soot and creosote are produced. Soot is sticky, black carbon particles, and creosote is an oily, flammable liquid tar.

Low-burning, smoldering fires produce more creosote than high-temperature fires. And woods such as beech, pecan, pine and cedar, which create more creosote in your chimney than low-sap, low-oil woods such as oak. Make sure, too, that wood has been aged and dried, or seasoned. Dried wood burns better and generates less creosote."

http://www.life123.com/home-garden/home-repair/ch imney-cleaning-repair/chimney-cleaning-tips-to-pre vent-fire.shtml



Hi Bob,
If you have a woodstove and you have observed wood burning for a lot of years, have you noticed any changes in the way wood burns? This year I burned madrone exclusively because it is one of the cleanest burning woods. The stove pipe is gunking up. I never saw this kind of drippy creosote until just a few years ago. Something is either changing in the atmosphere or in the structure of the wood, or both.
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The SPC is so contradictory sometimes =P

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
305 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

What?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 75
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
305 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 75 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-160200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0075.120315T1905Z-120316T0200Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON
ORANGE PERRY SCOTT
WASHINGTON


KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053 -057-061-067-
073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-13 7-141-151-155-
163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-21 5-217-223-227-
229-239-160200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0075.120315T1905Z-120316T0200Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOURBON BOYLE
BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER
CASEY CLARK CLINTON
CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GARRARD GRAYSON
GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN
HARRISON HART HENRY
JEFFERSON JESSAMINE LARUE
LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON
MARION MEADE MERCER
METCALFE MONROE NELSON
NICHOLAS OHIO OLDHAM
RUSSELL SCOTT SHELBY
SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR
TRIMBLE WARREN WASHINGTON
WOODFORD


TNC003-005-015-021-027-031-035-037-041-043-049-055 -061-081-083-
085-087-099-101-111-117-119-125-133-135-137-141-14 7-149-159-161-
165-169-175-177-181-185-187-189-160200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0075.120315T1905Z-120316T0200Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEDFORD BENTON CANNON
CHEATHAM CLAY COFFEE
CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DEKALB
DICKSON FENTRESS GILES
GRUNDY HICKMAN HOUSTON
HUMPHREYS JACKSON LAWRENCE
LEWIS MACON MARSHALL
MAURY MONTGOMERY OVERTON
PERRY PICKETT PUTNAM
ROBERTSON RUTHERFORD SMITH
STEWART SUMNER TROUSDALE
VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON WILSON


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting Jax82:
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?


Apparently it would be cooling as it drifted toward the next ice age.

That's where things were heading prior to our great big campfire....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Mid-March update of the ENSO Models is out and it has only a handfull of models crossing the 0.5C line towards El Nino.The rest of them stay at Neutral to Warm Neutral thru August,September and October.





Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14321
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if i was near you i would do 10 times worse to you than you done to the animal
it is ok to take for ones needs but to take for nothing is something else


I believe he was being sarcastic keep. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Quoting ClimateChange:




Nice arguments, sheep. The government loves people like you, because you're incapable of making a cogent argument, instead relying on red herring fallacies. Neither of your points do anything to disprove the urgency of current climate change. And all of those heat waves you mentioned occurred in an atmosphere that was already in a state of elevated greenhouse. Why don't you look at the data from the 1800s?
What data from the 1800's. Please show me the data from 1800 to into the 1880's for the entire USA
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting Patrap:
I do believe, and Dr. Masters can correct me if Im incorrect, but all the evidence currently has shown that the Global Climate Models have, actually, underplayed the Warming as observed, so downstream, the actual's most certainly will manifest Higher temps Globally.

Food fer thought.


The AR5 runs will be incorporating some significant enhancements which should bring them more in line with observations, though the previous results are still within the error margins.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Quoting Jax82:
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?
Quoting Jax82:
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?


Quoting nymore:
I blame all past heatwaves and droughts on climate change. Such as those in the 1930's, 1950's, 1960's, 1980's, 1990's and many of these lasted for years. All of these are just from the USA. In 1980 over 10,000 died and in 1988 estimates run as high as 17,000 deaths. Imagine the hysteria if that happened today, memories are either short or selective I guess.


Nice arguments, sheep. The government loves people like you, because you're incapable of making a cogent argument, instead relying on red herring fallacies. Neither of your points do anything to disprove the urgency of current climate change. And all of those heat waves you mentioned occurred in an atmosphere that was already in a state of elevated greenhouse. Why don't you look at the data from the 1800s?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NativeSun:
CO2 makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere, due you really believe it's causing the global warming. I see Pat's charts, there showing the PPM in the atmosphere not the precentage of CO2 in the atmosphere. Look for something else to cause the warming, any thoughts on the matter?

I think that if the current warming is attributable to anything other than CO2 that we have to go back to the drawing board to find out how we could be so wrong about physics and chemistry.

Summing up: It's the CO2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im tracking storms at higher elevations before precip shows up at lower elevations.
I see a bunch of storms with precip starting to plummet from the clouds, could lead to hail and downbursts when they hit.
Also i see some hail cores hanging around up high.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting NativeSun:
Enjoy the warm weather while you can,a gas CO2 that makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere is not the driver in the climate change debate. Something else is causing this, the Sun the ENSO phases Methane maybe etc. The main reason for climate chane by humans would be there are over 7 billion people on this small planet. Over time nature will take care of the climate change.


Well, you are correct about on thing. Humans are the cause.

However your statement about CO2 is nonsense. I would suggest reading up on some physics and reviewing the significant amount of literature on the subject. There are plenty of online resources, books, and journal articles available.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Quoting Jax82:
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?
The climate changes in response to whatever external and internal inputs it's receiving, and since those inputs have always varied over time, yes, the climate has changed for eons, far before we humans lucked onto the scene. At the moment, the climate is warming rapidly, and scientists are increasingly certain that's due primarily to the increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases we humans are producing.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Could see those storms popping to my southeast at lunch, doesn't feel as sticky as yesterday, so not surprising they're south.

And as a side to those earlier impeachment references, Blago should just about be getting strip searched at his new Colorado home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I blame all past heatwaves and droughts on climate change. Such as those in the 1930's, 1950's, 1960's, 1980's, 1990's and many of these lasted for years. All of these are just from the USA. In 1980 over 10,000 died and in 1988 estimates run as high as 17,000 deaths. Imagine the hysteria if that happened today, memories are either short or selective I guess.

I forgot to mention 1988 drought the costliest disaster ever in the USA with estimates as high as 120 billion dollars.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
Quoting JNCali:
So with the advent of Summer, 3 months too soon this year, what will July- August- September hold??


This may not be summer, the ridge may come crashing down in a couple weeks .It is an artificial warm spell, in summer the sun warms the air to these temps with or without high pressure and ridges.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
150. Jax82
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New Euro a tad less optomistic on Lua, peaking it at 944 mb just before landfall.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837


9.0 LLLR over me, but MLLR arent increasing :(
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting NativeSun:
CO2 makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere, due you really believe it's causing the global warming. I see Pat's charts, there showing the PPM in the atmosphere not the precentage of CO2 in the atmosphere. Look for something else to cause the warming, any thoughts on the matter?


It doesn't matter what is causing the warming. The effects will be the same regardless. So even if you don't believe in greenhouse gas warming, you should nevertheless be preparing. Like I said above, what are you and your family going to do when food and clean water are no longer plentiful. The government won't be able to help -- it will be bankrupt. It's already bankrupt!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So with the advent of Summer, 3 months too soon this year, what will July- August- September hold??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CO2 makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere, due you really believe it's causing the global warming. I see Pat's charts, there showing the PPM in the atmosphere not the precentage of CO2 in the atmosphere. Look for something else to cause the warming, any thoughts on the matter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
dec 21st


LOL!!! nice one
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
The SPC says:




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151808Z - 152015Z

PULSE TSTMS WITH A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A STEEP LAPSE RATE BUT WEAKLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...RISKS WILL PRIMARILY BE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE TSTMS
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.


CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BETWEEN TWO SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS
THAT HAD PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MID-MS AND
PARTS OF THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. VWP/UPSTREAM PROFILER DATA INDICATE
WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WHICH HAS LIMITED EFFECTIVE SHEAR LARGELY TO
AROUND 10-20 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURES CONSISTING OF PULSE TO OCCASIONAL MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
MODES. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 DEG C/KM SAMPLED IN
12Z AREA RAOBS...MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS OVERTURNED.

..GRAMS.. 03/15/2012


ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...L MK...OHX...
IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.