Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2012

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The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.


Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday

Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.

Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.

Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.

Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.

Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.

Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.

Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.

South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.

Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.

Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.


Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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in bloom today (TroyA2)
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This storm has very strong rotation with it.
Oh snap its headed strait for Detroit.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
This storm has very strong rotation with it.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
we should also note that sections of europe is currently experiencing drought conditions as a result of the larger and stronger than normal azores high
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
Quoting nymore:
Say Patrap I need a few things if you can find them for me. I need a left handed 7 inch metric crescent wrench, a sky hook, a concrete block (cmu) stretcher, plasma for the plasma cutter and a box of head joints. Thanks for all your help.
Say, you're aware that cement is the 'glue' used to hold together the aggregate in concrete, are you not? And that, as such, any piece of machinery pumping concrete is, by definition, pumping cement? And that, colloquially, the two terms are interchangeable in some regions, even if it's not technically correct? Just thought you'd want to know...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Watching a thunderstorm developing outside my house. Summer (or winter in this case) pop up thunderstorms produce the best lightning IMO.

The lack of winter in the US is affecting the weather here in Jamaica where it as been very warm and over the last week or so we have rain almost everyday...this is very strange...it usually dry in the caribbean from about november to about april and our rainy season ranges from about may to about october
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
Professional Societies and Research Institutions on whether human are causing climate change through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Humanity driving climate change:

Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand
Academy of Science of South Africa
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy
African Academy of Sciences
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association of State Climatologists
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society (world's largest scientific organization with over 155,000 members)
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
Australian Academy of Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Brazilian Academy of Sciences
British Antarctic Survey
Cameroon Academy of Sciences
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospherice Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina
Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia)
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
Federation of American Scientists
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
French Academy of Sciences
Geological Society of America
Geological Society of Australia
German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina
Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
Indian National Science Academy
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
International Council on Science
International Union for Quaternary Research
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
Kenya National Academy of Sciences
l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
Madagascar’s National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences
NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies
National Academies of Science (US)
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Research Council
Nigerian Academy of Sciences
Pew Center on Climate Change
Polish Academy of Sciences
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Royal Irish Academy
Royal Meteorological Society
Royal Society of Canada
Royal Society of New Zealand
Royal Society, United Kingdom
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
Science Council of Japan
State of the Canadian Cryosphere
Stratigraphy Commission - Geological Society of London (The world's oldest and the United Kingdom's largest geoscience organization)
Sudan Academy of Sciences
Tanzania Academy of Sciences
Texas A&M - Department of Atmospheric Sciences
The Institution of Engineers Australia
The Network of African Science Academies
Uganda National Academy of Sciences
Union of Concerned Scientists
United Nations Environment Program
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US Geological Survey
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute – Ocean and Climate Change Institute
Woods Hole Research Center
World Meteorological Organization
World Wildlife Fund
Zambia Academy of Sciences
Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences

Uncertain about extent of human role:

American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting nymore:
Maybe but the average last frost is in the end of May or early June

You just stay safe.
Everybody wants to have a brave adventure but stay alive and stay with us? Extroverts and adventurers are going to be in high demand in the future and some of us are getting too old to "test the ice, much longer."
Having said that, if I was in your continent I would probably be up there with you chancing the ice?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watching a thunderstorm developing outside my house. Summer (or winter in this case) pop up thunderstorms produce the best lightning IMO.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
wxmod "I've had a wood stove for 40 years. The creosote that collects on the stove pipe used to be crispy and brittle. For the past few years it has been drippy and tar-like, no matter what kind of wood I burn. Has anyone else noticed this?"
100 BobWallace "Might that come from cooler burning? Any chance the air intake on your stove is restricted?"

Definitely cooler burning caused by an overly slowed draw-through. The draw-through slowing definitely caused by a restriction, though at least as likely in the chimney as in the intake.
Definitely looking at a strong probability of DEATH from carbon monoxide poisoning and/or from a chimney fire becoming a house fire if you don't get it fixed.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I can dig a neutral period.

I think we will have neutral conditions for most or all of the hurricane season as the negative PDO is preventing the warm equatorial waters in the eastern tropical pacific from moving west at this point in time
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
Say Patrap I need a few things if you can find them for me. I need a left handed 7 inch metric crescent wrench, a sky hook, a concrete block (cmu) stretcher, plasma for the plasma cutter and a box of head joints. Thanks for all your help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There have been, again, a large number of record high temps today, but the amplitude of the records is pretty astounding. For instance, this from Madison, WI, where today's record blew right past the 70s:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE
337 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MADISON TODAY...

SO FAR TODAY...MARCH 15TH 2012...THE DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT
HAS REACHED 81 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES...SET IN 1995.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
But there's also this interesting statement from northern Indiana:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
722 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 /622 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2012/

...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES STILL LIKELY THIS SPRING...

HISTORICALLY...REACHING 70 DEGREES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
IN MARCH HAS NO IMPACT ON THE NUMBER OF BELOW FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES FORT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND WILL SEE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SPRING.

FORT WAYNE HAS NEVER SEEN AN APRIL WITHOUT A TEMPERATURE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BELOW FREEZING DAYS FOR
APRIL AND MAY AT FORT WAYNE IS 8.6. DURING YEARS WITH 5 OR MORE
70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH...8 OUT OF THE 11 HAD A GREATER NUMBER OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL.

SOUTH BEND HAS ALSO NEVER SEEN AN APRIL WITHOUT A TEMPERATURE AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF BELOW FREEZING DAYS FOR
APRIL AND MAY AT SOUTH BEND IS 10.2. DURING YEARS WITH 5 OR MORE
70 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH... 5 OF THE 8 HAD A GREATER NUMBER OF
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I guess we'll see...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow! A cow just fell past my window!!!

Ok, I wasn't being literal...lol.... but it IS raining domestic pets and the occasional head of cattle here in Nassau this afternoon. That is pretty unusual for us, since March is usually one of the driest months of the year. Our normal situation is to be watching out for forest fires in March. This is our third heavy rain since the month started. I'm wondering if this is typical when we are in a pattern change, i. e. moving from el Nino to la Nina or something similar.


Good evening guys.....Here in Jamaica we are also getting rain as a result day time heating which is pretty unlikely for this time of the year.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8136
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and that was the last night of freezing temps for you as well its done for next 6 to 10 days anyways maybe more maybe till next fall
Maybe but the average last frost is in the end of May or early June
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It should be noted that when that graphic shows one vehicle, it actually means ONE vehicle. We saw what happened earlier this year when over 30 we're sitting on 8-12" ice.
I have seen a hundred cars parked at fish house parties. The ice will bow a lot before it breaks. The college kids use it as a parking lot in the winter.
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Quoting nymore:
There will be records broken. mainly in central and southern mn but a few may happen up north as well. It was below freezing here just last night.
and that was the last night of freezing temps for you as well its done for next 6 to 10 days anyways maybe more maybe till next fall
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Old News?

Drought Monitor forecasts for CONUS are out:



Climate Prediction Center
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Even International Falls and Duluth are predicted to stay above freezing from tomorrow through the next five days, with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows staying above the mid 40s. (In fact, the 10-day forecasts for those cities call for no further sub-freezing temps.) I'd say that, barring an unforeseen for now cold snap, many very early, if not record-breaking, ice-out dates will be set.
There will be records broken. mainly in central and southern mn but a few may happen up north as well. It was below freezing here just last night. It is the sun that really kills it, There is a thin layer of colder air just above the ice
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Quoting LargoFl:
i hope your right on that one and ty


No... We want them to get warmer. Cold ENSO = La Nina.

La Nina = No rain for The South.

No rain for The South = Zombies.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Mid-March update of the ENSO Models is out and it has only a handfull of models crossing the 0.5C line towards El Nino.The rest of them stay at Neutral to Warm Neutral thru August,September and October.





Link


I can dig a neutral period.
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Quoting nymore:
It is probably 50 some out right now. Ice takes a while to melt
Even International Falls and Duluth are predicted to stay above freezing from tomorrow through the next five days, with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows staying above the mid 40s. (In fact, the 10-day forecasts for those cities call for no further sub-freezing temps.) I'd say that, barring an unforeseen for now cold snap, many very early, if not record-breaking, ice-out dates will be set across the state.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
Quoting nymore:
Here this will help.


It should be noted that when that graphic shows one vehicle, it actually means ONE vehicle. We saw what happened earlier this year when over 30 we're sitting on 8-12" ice.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
nice little hail storm northwest of nashville

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Here this will help.

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Quoting nymore:
I have insurance it is considered so reliable Insurance companies cover you while your on it. Say that no ice is ever 100% safe

The Darwin Awards are always keen to enlist new candidates!
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190: Ever wonder what a solar storm sounds like?

Sounds like Space Birds and A Space Boar.....
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Warning? Be very careful with ice melting, it often melts more from underneath than from above!
You could think its safe to drive or walk on it and then it fails, don't, repeat! Don't drive on the stuff even if you have habitually done so in the past!
I have insurance it is considered so reliable Insurance companies cover you while your on it. Saying that, no ice is ever 100% safe
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Magnitude 5.1 - NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012 March 15 19:20:18 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting nymore:
It is probably 50 some out right now. Ice takes a while to melt

Warning? Be very careful with ice melting, it often melts more from underneath than from above!
You could think its safe to drive or walk on it and then it fails, don't, repeat! Don't drive on the stuff even if you have habitually done so in the past!
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The growing season where I live is around 90 days for southeastern mn it is around 150 to 160
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Somewhere a Cement Pumper sits idle.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636


Greece on the breadline: HIV and malaria make a comeback
Posted on Thursday 15 March 2012 12.34 GMT

The incidence of HIV/Aids among intravenous drug users in central Athens soared by 1,250% in the first 10 months of 2011 compared with the same period the previous year, according to the head of Médecins sans Frontières Greece, while malaria is becoming endemic in the south for the first time since the rule of the colonels.

Reveka Papadopoulos said that following savage cuts to the national health service budget, including heavy job losses and a 40% reduction in funding for hospitals, Greek social services were "under very severe strain, if not in a state of breakdown. What we are seeing are very clear indicators of a system that cannot cope."

The heavy, horizontal and "blind" budget cuts coincided last year with a 24% increase in demand for hospital services, she said, "largely because people could simply no longer afford private healthcare. The entire system is deteriorating."

The extraordinary increase in HIV/Aids among drug users, due largely to the suspension or cancellation of free needle exchange programmes, has been accompanied by a 52% increase in the general population.

"We are also seeing transmission between mother and child for the first time in Greece," she said. "This is something we are used to seeing in sub-Saharan Africa, not Europe. There has also been a sharp increase in cases of tuberculosis in the immigrant population, cases of Nile fever – leading to 35 deaths in 2010 – and the reappearance of endemic malaria in several parts of Greece, notably the south."

According to Papadopoulos, such sharp increases in communicable diseases are indicative of a system nearing breakdown. "The simple fact of the reappearance of malaria, with 100-odd cases in southern Greece last year and 20 to 30 more elsewhere, shows barriers to healthcare access have risen," she said. "Malaria is treatable, it shouldn't spread if the system is working."

MSF has been active in Greece for more than 20 years, but until now has largely confined its activities to emergency interventions after natural disasters such as earthquakes, and providing care to the most vulnerable groups in the community, including immigrants.

It is now focusing on supporting the public health sector, providing emergency care in shelters for the homeless and improving the overall response to communicable diseases. Papadopoulos, who spent 17 years abroad with MSF and returned to her native Greece three years ago, sees hope among the rubble. "What keeps me going is an increasingly strong sense of solidarity among the Greek people," she said. "Donations to MSF, for example, have of course gone down with the crisis, but donors keep giving, they remain active."

She sees a refreshing new phenomenon of self-organisation and social action. "In the past year of this crisis I have seen really encouraging, really exciting things happening – people are seeing the power of organising themselves. We have to support them."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2012/mar/15/ greece-breadline-hiv-malaria
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The Mayans were great astronomers and their Sun/Moon Eclipse and Venus/Mercury Transit calculations still hold up to within 30 secs of those events.



Even a cursory exploration of their astronomy is warranted, before commenting.


That way its kinda like, truth over personal fiction.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting PlazaRed:

You have got to be in some pocket of unusual cold that in itself will be an anomaly.
According to all the charts and temp predictions on the heading for the blog you should be at a temp of 50-60/F. Ice don't like that kind of temp?
It is probably 50 some out right now. Ice takes a while to melt
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Quoting nymore:
Really come on up we will get in my 4 ton truck drive out on the ice and go fishing.

You have got to be in some pocket of unusual cold that in itself will be an anomaly.
According to all the charts and temp predictions on the heading for the blog you should be at a temp of 50-60/F. Ice don't like that kind of temp?
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

I stand corrected....my bad. It's not going to be there very much longer. And I wouldn't be driving on it....with your temps doing what they are as of now.

past 15 days....all of March Minneapolis.

We did not get a lot of ice this year and it is still 2 feet thick. Between where I live and Minneapolis is two different worlds. We call them and southern mn the banana belt
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I would be thrilled with the extreme temps we have had all week in S. Wisc if it was May 15th, but it's only March! Lilac bushes are completely budded out, only 5 weeks early. What happens when the fruit trees bud & bloom before we get that final freeze of the season? Our normal planting season is Mother's Day (mid May) What happens when we have the major insect hatch 5 weeks ahead of the migrating birds that depend on them. In my tiny space on this beautiful earth, we have passed the tipping point.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
summertime storms

Just looked at the sky here in Middle TN. It looks just like July.. Unbelievable
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Wow! A cow just fell past my window!!!

Ok, I wasn't being literal...lol.... but it IS raining domestic pets and the occasional head of cattle here in Nassau this afternoon. That is pretty unusual for us, since March is usually one of the driest months of the year. Our normal situation is to be watching out for forest fires in March. This is our third heavy rain since the month started. I'm wondering if this is typical when we are in a pattern change, i. e. moving from el Nino to la Nina or something similar.

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Quoting nymore:
Really come on up we will get in my 4 ton truck drive out on the ice and go fishing.
I stand corrected....my bad.  It's not going to be there very much longer.  And I wouldn't be driving on it....with your temps doing what they are as of now.

past 15 days....all of March  Minneapolis.  

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Quoting Jax82:
If us humans were not on this planet, what would the climate be doing right now? It would probably be bored and never change, right?


No, actually the world would most likely have continued cooling. The trend before the industrial revolution was one of decreasing temperatures. Actually temps had been decreasing since the Holocene maximum up until about the time of the industrial revolution started kicking in to high gear (we have most likely exceeded that maximum at this point).

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Quoting ILwthrfan:

Kinda of difficult for there to be ice on the Mississippi River right now with temperatures ranging in the 70's the past 3-4 days. lol
Really come on up we will get in my 4 ton truck drive out on the ice and go fishing. Snows going down making travel across the ice easier.
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Quoting NativeSun:
CO2 makes up only 0.039% of the atmosphere, due you really believe it's causing the global warming. I see Pat's charts, there showing the PPM in the atmosphere not the precentage of CO2 in the atmosphere. Look for something else to cause the warming, any thoughts on the matter?


Yes. Percentage and PPM are related quantities. Also, research in the various sciences shows your assertion is incorrect.

If you can demonstrate a model that shows how the planet can warm by a significant amount in such a short time without increased solar input, then by all means do so. Scientists have been studying climate science and the greenhouse effect for over 125 years now, so you going to need to make your case pretty solid. And it can't violate the laws of thermodynamics.
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Quoting LargoFl:
its funny you know, we have been talking about and denying the validity of the Mayan calendar for years, but take notice, the subtle changes in the weather, getting stronger, lil by lil. perhaps they knew way back then, about the weathers changes and knew, it would get bad at the end of the calendar, not destruction as such but a mighty change from the weather patterns we have become used to..who knows, with the warming trend that is happening now, maybe..we will have less winter and longer summers..maybe, eventually, no winter at all?...hmmm something to think about, we shall see in the next year or so if this proves to be the case


I aint one to predict the climate...but NEVER will a human know when the world will be destroyed. never. ever ever ever! :D
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Just out of general interest?
Where are you?
Northern Minnesota
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Quoting Patrap:
Ever wonder what a solar storm sounds like? Check out the video below.


Far out.
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summertime storms

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54338
Quoting LargoFl:
its funny you know, we have been talking about and denying the validity of the Mayan calendar for years, but take notice, the subtle changes in the weather, getting stronger, lil by lil. perhaps they knew way back then, about the weathers changes and knew, it would get bad at the end of the calendar, not destruction as such but a mighty change from the weather patterns we have become used to..who knows, with the warming trend that is happening now, maybe..we will have less winter and longer summers..maybe, eventually, no winter at all?...hmmm something to think about, we shall see in the next year or so if this proves to be the case


I think the Mayan calendar ends when it does because they ran out of rock. I mean you can only get so many years on a calendar and then you need to start a new stone. As a civilization, the Mayan era ended long before now. although there are Mayan descendants living around their pyramids such as Chichen Itza, in the same type of housing they used when their culture was at it's height. Just like the temptation to view a huge triangle on the sun as a "sign" or omen of something, it's more logical to think the rock was just too small.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.