Remarkable week-long March heat wave hitting U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:02 PM GMT on March 14, 2012

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A highly unusual week-long heat wave is building over much of the U.S., and promises to bring the warmest temperatures ever seen so early in year to a large portion of the Midwest. The exceptional heat will also be exceptionally long-lasting: record-breaking temperatures 20 - 30 degrees F above normal are expected today through next Wednesday for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S. The weather system responsible is a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is "stuck" in place--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." The jet stream is bending far to the south over the Western U.S., then bending far to the north over the Rockies and into Canada, and lies far to the north of the eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, the current looping pattern is bringing colder than normal temperatures and snow to the mountains of the West, and summer-like warmth to the Eastern U.S. It is common for the jet stream to get stuck in a blocking pattern for a period of a week or more, but not in to this extremity. If the current model forecasts prove correct, a high pressure ridge over the U.S. bringing heat this intense and long-lasting in March will be unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1872.


Figure 1. Is this March or June? Predicted high temperatures for Wednesday, March 14, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

Here are the hottest all-time recorded temperatures measured prior to March 20 for some selected U.S. cities. All of these records will be seriously threatened during the coming week:

Madison, WI: 77°F on March 7, 2000
Milwaukee, WI: 77°F on March 7 - 8, 2000
Minneapolis, MN: 73°F on March 7, 2000
Des Moines, IA: 82°F on March 11, 1972
Chicago, IL: 81°F on March 12, 1990
Detroit, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000
Lansing, MI: 79°F on March 8, 2000
Muskegon, MI: 73°F on March 8, 2000
Grand Rapids, MI: 78°F on March 8, 2000
Flint, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000

As you can see, the expected warm temperatures during the coming week will rival those recorded on March 8, 2000, when most of the Upper Midwest set all-time records for the warmest temperature ever measured so early in the year. That warm surge was caused by a ridge of high pressure that was not as strong as the one expected to build in during the coming week, and the March 8, 2000 ridge did not stick around long enough to generate more than two days of record-breaking high temperatures. A powerful low pressure system moved through Northern Wisconsin on March 8, 2000, dragging a cold front through the state that triggered a thunderstorm that spawned the earliest tornado ever recorded in Milwaukee County.


Figure 2. New daily high temperature records were set at 208 locations yesterday, according to our new Extremes web page, with data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Hot days in Minneapolis
In Minneapolis, Minnesota yesterday, the high temperature reached 67°F, which is the 7th warmest temperature measured so early in the year, and 27°F above the normal high of 40°F for the date. Since weather records in the city go back to 1872, we can expect that Minneapolis will experience a temperature of 67°F or higher this early in the year once every 20 years, on average. What's really remarkable is that the forecast for Minneapolis calls for a high temperature of 70 - 75° every day for the next seven days. Since 1872, there have only been nine days that the temperature has gotten to 70°F prior to March 20, with 73°F on March 7, 2000 being the hottest day. So, over the course of the next week, we are likely to break the all-time high for so early in the year, and add nearly double the number of 70°F-plus days. The situation is similar for much of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and surrounding states. With temperatures already averaging at least 5°F over much of the Midwest this month, it's very likely that this month will be the warmest March on record for at least seven states.

Unusual snows on the Oregon coast
As is often the case, record heat in one part of the country means that another part is experiencing unusual cold, due to a kink in the jet stream. On Monday, 6.0" of snow fell at Newport, OR, and 8.5" at Tillamook (about halfway up the coast between Newport and Astoria). According to statistics at the Western Regional Climate Center, the Newport snowfall was their greatest March snowfall on record (previous was 2.0" in March 1906) and the their 3rd greatest snowfall of any month since records began in 1893. The latest-greater snowfall at Newport was 11.0" on Dec. 3-4, 1972. This tied with another 11.0" snow in January 1943 as their greatest snowfalls on record. For Tillamook it was the biggest snow since 9.0" in January 1971 (but well short of their all-time snowfall of 19.0" in March 1951).

Jeff Masters

Too soon. Too soon for flowers. (Fieldofflowers)
Uh Oh. After a couple record breaking highs and a week of 60+ degree days in forecast, our spring flowers are springing out really early. This rain storm is only going to make this columbine and other things grow even more.
Too soon. Too soon for flowers.
CoastalSnow!! (kristinarinell)
after a day of high winds, high surf we now get snow!!!
CoastalSnow!!
Robin in Maple Buds (gardner48197)
Robin in Maple Buds

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387. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:22 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
There's a new blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
386. GeorgiaStormz
2:21 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Today is the 4th anniversary of the worst severe weather event i was a part of (and the 1st major 1 i remember). Sirens went off like 7 or 8 times. I remember seeing a supercell with baseball sized hail just to the north of me, white on the outside, and black underneath, 60 000 ft tops but only 10 or 20 square miles. Unfortunately, i didnt see anything significant and was too busy to be able to follow radar.
Was almost in a High risk.



The night before was when a tornado hit Atlanta.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
385. hydrus
2:17 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
I needed a laugh today... Quoting presslord:
"I thought neutrinos were some sorta Louisiana rodent"..



....PATRAP......I heard dat..


..they nasty, but hey with nuff Dark Roux and nuff garlic, viola!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19604
384. hydrus
2:12 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
This could turn out bad for a lot of folks.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19604
383. TampaSpin
2:11 PM GMT on March 15, 2012


Days 4 and 5 are looking a bit interesting...SPC rarely notes things this far out unless they are pretty confident.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
382. TheOnlyBravesFan
2:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Not much of a chance for tornadoes/dmg winds, this will be a hail event.



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MO EAST TO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ERN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY WEAK SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.
THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST/NRN
PLAINS AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD BELT OF 10-30KT
500MB FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE OH VALLEY ATOP SLIGHTLY
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW ON THE WRN FLANK OF ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC. MOST PRONOUNCED
HEIGHT FALLS THIS PERIOD WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PACIFIC
TROUGH SPREADING INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...IN TANDEM
WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER IMPULSE OVER CANADA...WILL RESULT IN WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

...OZARKS TO OH/TN VALLEYS AND ERN GREAT LAKES...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW/MOISTURE AND MEAGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ATYPICAL SETUP FOR MID-MARCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS AREAS FROM THE OZARKS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
MIDWEST THROUGH TODAY. ONGOING STORMS FROM SRN IND TO OH/KY/WV AND
ERN TN ARE IN RESPONSE TO MASS CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE ERN EDGE OF EXTENSIVE CNTRL U.S. EML PLUME. RECENT TRENDS AND
UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THE MCS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN OH/WV MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. DESPITE
THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA BASED ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
PERSIST DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS.


THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 10-30KT
MID LEVEL FLOW PER LATEST PROFILER AND VWP OBSERVATIONS. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND
MS VALLEY ATOP THE BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT. POCKETS
OF GREATER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WEAKER INHIBITION EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS
SHOULD BE OVERCOME/ELIMINATED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF BACKGROUND
ASCENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING. MULTICELLULAR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME AND DESPITE LACK OF
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND EVENTS SEEMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. IF GREATER
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION CAN DEVELOP/EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY IT MAY
BE POSSIBLE TO PROVIDE A MORE DETAILED/FOCUSED TSTM WIND THREAT AREA
BUT HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.


WEAK FRONT WILL AID LIFT AMIDST INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
LOWER MI AND OH LATER TODAY TO SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS/LINES OF
STORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..CARBIN/SMITH/GUYER.. 03/15/2012
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
381. TampaSpin
2:00 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
This heat wave this time of year is simply FUEL for a disasters Tornado outbreak again sorry to say!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
380. dogsgomoo
2:00 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:
Anyone else have their screens freeze up for a while due to the animations sunlinepr posts?

I can't scroll past them until they play through or whatever.


I've only had that happen when browsing the blog through the iPhone app's browser. Completely freezes up on the animations.

(edit: I don't mean the direct link to the Dr.'s blog in the app, that link is mobile formatted and doesn't show comments. It happens when I follow a twitter link to a blog post while inside the app's browser. I've previously used this shortcut to read and post comments but it froze too much. Now I use Safari and go to the full site. Blog and comments work fine. No freezing.)
Member Since: March 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
379. Neapolitan
1:57 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
--Not all the numbers are in yet, but so far there were 400 daily high temperature records tied or broken yesterday, and just one daily low temperature reading was broken.

--Traverse City, Michigan, reached 81 degrees yesterday. This was the first 80-degree day winter day there ever. The previous record for earliest 80-degree day there was March 27.

--Grand Rapids, MI, reached 80 yesterday, the earliest-ever 80-degree day there.

It'll be very interesting to see what the rest of the week brings...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
378. TropicTraveler
1:55 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Talk about global warming. If the sun got even a little hotter we'd be like the boiled frogs. Maybe we're already like them, content in our nice warm bath as the heat is turned up just a little.....
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
377. TampaSpin
1:48 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Honestly tho.....with all the suns activity lately and maybe we are just more focused on the sun now too....but, Do you think the sun's activity is related at all with the current heating going on now? I DO!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
376. TampaSpin
1:46 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The "missing" frames are perhaps the most interesting observation. I haven't verified this, however.



Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 775






I can't believe this guy's voice did not break down from laughing while filming this....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
375. WeatherNerdPR
1:44 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Pacific has cooled a bit in the past couple of weeks.

March 1rst



March 15th


Apparently, so has the Caribbean...
The Gulf has become even warmer, though.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
374. Tropicsweatherpr
1:37 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
The Pacific has cooled a bit in the past couple of weeks.

March 1rst



March 15th

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
373. TropicTraveler
1:22 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Re: Oracle Atlantis post about the sn. It absolutely irresistable to speculate about this. It's a giant triangle on the sun! Spaceships could be lurking! Inside that hole, beings could be looking at us!!!!! Come on, let's have a little fun with it. It's space weather and we hardly ever have a chance to comment on it or see it do such unlikely things.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
372. aspectre
1:19 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
370 Xyrus2000 "...There's nothing mysterious or magical about it..."

Yep, it's just an oversized DeathStar dipping its refueling siphon into the Sun.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
371. Thrawst
1:16 PM GMT on March 15, 2012


Active week ahead everybody! Spring is here!
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1737
370. Xyrus2000
1:08 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The "missing" frames are perhaps the most interesting observation. I haven't verified this, however...


We've discussed this already on the blog. It's a coronal hole. There's nothing mysterious or magical about it. They happen quite regularly. Link
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1226
369. GeorgiaStormz
1:01 PM GMT on March 15, 2012


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150834
SPC AC 150834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE...ALBEIT
SLOW-MOVING...UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. INTO
THE PLAINS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN NEB
INTO WEST TX BY SUNDAY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE AS 500MB FLOW INCREASES IN
EXCESS OF 50-70KT. BY DAY5 STRONGER FORCING WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
AND THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE KS/OK
BORDER...SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX. BEYOND DAY5 THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE MODE.

..DARROW.. 03/15/2012


Not much severe wording, but well see...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9467
368. Xyrus2000
12:57 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Blog Hype-DEFCON: currently 11.5/10.0



When I first saw this, my immediate thought was: OMG! You have got to be kidding me - that's the exact same day that I'd been predicting a large earthquake!

But then I realized I was using the same "methodology" - that is, counting the number of days from the previous large quake, in this case Chile (2010) --> Japan (2011) --> ??? (2012). The youtube poster in this case has been wrong on earthquakes before, but earthquake prediction is at best an inexact science, and in most cases, not a science at all.

Now, tracing backwards 188-9 days reveals no real results beyond the Chile tremblor, other than a magnitude 6.7 quake in the Ryukyu Islands (17 August 2009) and a magnitude 7.2 in eastern Indonesia (11 February 2009). Both occurred in the Pacific rim, but prior to that, no strong earthquake event occurred in the pattern (unless you consider the mag. 5.5 quake, 29 July 2008 in the Chino Hills area to be a strong quake).

Numerological predictions are probably no more reliable than pure guesswork, unless there is some sort of detectable resonance at work.

Granted, I did actually "predict" the Chile earthquake in February 2010, though was not convinced enough in my "prediction" to explicitly post it (except a few remarks about the Humboldt Current being cut off by a warm ENSO Modoki pool at the location of 1960 Valdivia 9.5). Typically, prior to any major earthquake, there is somebody who predicts it, and the more predictions that are made, the more likely an actual earthquake will be "predicted". I was going to write a blog on the Chile quake and possible links to SSTs and El Nino, but have been neglecting to do so for about the past two years or so as a result of unfair procrastination.

There were also many significant earthquakes I did not predict. This, for example, includes the 7.0 Haiti earthquake, the 9.0 Japan earthquake or the 6.3 New Zealand earthquake. Some failed predictions include a mag. ~7 earthquake in Jamaica, which never occurred, unless a set of magnitude 4.3 quakes is within the margin of error.

There will likely be never (or at most, very few) successful officially-directed evacuations of geologically active areas based on earthquake prediction, although unexpected scientific advances are always possible. Until then, most people in earthquake-prone regions will never receive an accurate warning from a prediction for seismic activity before the earthquake actually strikes in their region. It is much more feasible to predict the weather, and even here there are many people complaining about wrong forecasts that ruined their perfect barbeque.

An interesting fact(oid) is that I read in a book or online resource somewhere apprently linking transits of Venus to tsunamis in the ocean. The transits almost always occur in pairs 8 years apart. For example, there were transits of Venus in 1874 and 1882. There was a magnitude 8.8 earthquake in northern Chile in 1877, and the eruption of Krakatoa, between Java and Sumatra in Indonesia affecting the Indian Ocean, occurred with a catastrophic tsunami in 1883.

It's difficult to tell whether the purported correlation between large tsunamis and Venusian transits has any factual basis; for instance, the 1755 'Lisbon' quake and tsunami occurred six years before the first transit. Even then, we must remember that correlation does not imply causation.

Of course, it is still almost three months prior to this year's transit of Venus, and in the midst of all this quake-rambling, don't forget that a spectacular conjunction of Venus and Jupiter is still visible in the western sky (EDT).

A team of six seismologists is currently on trial in Italy for failing to predict the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit the city of L'Aquila in April 2009. Prosecutors argue that the seismologists gave the public imprecise and incomplete information ahead of the deadly earthquake, which killed 309 residents. Despite an international petition signed by nearly 5,000 scientists in support of the seismologists, if the prosecution wins the case, they will be convicted of manslaughter.

I hope my commentary on geo-tectonics has not been too off-base; some geoscientists suggested decades ago that we would now be in an active geological cycle phase. And now, back to the weather:

A ridge of high pressure and mostly dry weather dominates the central and eastern half of North America this week. Some pop-up thunderstorms are continuing across the Southeastern Continental United States. Look for higher instability and elevated tornado risk next week.


The general problem with earthquake prediction is that earthquakes happen so frequently (including strong ones) that you need a significant amount of evidence that your method is indeed predicting quakes and it isn't happening by random chance. For example, on average a magnitude 6 earthquake is happening roughly every two or three days, and monster quakes greater than magnitude 8 happen on average once or twice a year.

So when someone says there will be a major quake this year (or any year), they will most likely be correct. When someone says there will be a strong quake tomorrow (> 6M), again there is a good chance they will be correct.

If you can predict the day and location of these types of quakes and show statistically significant skill in doing so (both present day and historically), then there are a lot of geophysicists who would want to talk to you.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1226
367. TheOnlyBravesFan
12:23 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Good morning to all.... supposed to reach 85 where I am today, gonna feel like it's May or June. The Spring Equinox hasn't even hit yet, this is crazy
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
366. TheOnlyBravesFan
12:19 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
An early morning severe storm.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC039-TNC123-151245-
/O.NEW.KMRX.SV.W.0048.120315T1207Z-120315T1245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
807 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
MONROE COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

* AT 801 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MURPHY...VIOLET...HIAWASSE DAM...UNAKA...CITICO AND MARBLE.

LAT...LON 3519 8430 3521 8430 3525 8437 3546 8432
3545 8398 3541 8401 3537 8400 3535 8403
3524 8400 3522 8395 3526 8384 3526 8379
3499 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 274DEG 21KT 3537 8422

$$
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
365. washingtonian115
12:14 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
It's going to be 87 today!!.Almost 90 degrees in March?!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
364. LRC
12:11 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
352 BobWallace "Anyone else have their screens freeze up for a while due to the animations sunlinepr posts? I can't scroll past them until they play through or whatever."
If you use Firefox and use addon flashblock, then YOU control when those animations are run. Also it will no repeat over and over.
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
363. percylives
12:09 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Looking to be a dry spring and summer in the Southwest.

Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
362. TropicTraveler
12:09 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know, it's unfortunate really, but as I just said, we cannot have our pie and eat it too.

If I could move everybody out of the plains into bigger, better homes and allow all the tornado outbreaks to occur over the completely abandoned areas, I would. But...that's not plausible.



Those homes in the security video films from the blog yesterday showed what happens to well-built homes when hit by enough wind. They just shredded away. One roof lifted off in a single unit so it must have been a well-built roof. Unless homes are "bunker style" reinforced concrete they are at risk. I have a fascination with severe weather because it's so awesome but at the same time I don't want it anywhere near people. Nature of course does what it does where it wants and we can only stand by. If I lived in the plains or a high-risk area I would have a super-strong safe room. People walked out of one in the Oklahoma City tornado to find their closet-sized safe room was the only thing left standing for blocks. And they were totally o.k.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
361. percylives
11:02 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
From RSOE EDIS

Australia's climate warming at alarming rate, report warns
15.03.2012 06:04:50 | The Telegraph (UK)
Australia's climate is warming at an alarming rate and oceans around the continent have been rising by as much as a centimetre a year, according to a new government report.
The snapshot, produced by the national science and weather agencies, found climate changes have been occurring at an increasingly rapid pace. It predicts fiercer storms, increased drought and more intensive periods of rainfall over the coming decades. According to the report, based on observations and peer-reviewed research by government scientists, Australia has recorded its 13 hottest years on record since 1997 – and average day and night-time temperatures are now almost a degree higher than they were a century ago. Sea-surface temperatures increased by about 0.8C since 1910 and hit a record high in 2010. Each decade in Australia has been warmer than the previous decade since the 1950s. The report, by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [CSIRO], says the changes appear to have been mostly caused by human-induced carbon emissions and are not due to nature alone. Following a dip in carbon emissions during the financial crisis, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere reached 390 parts per million last year, the highest level in 800,000 years.

"It is very likely (at least 90 per cent likelihood) that most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is due to increases in greenhouse gases from human activities," the report says. "Human activities also have influenced ocean warming, sea-level rise, and temperature extremes. It is very unlikely (less than ten per cent likelihood) that 20th century warming can be explained by natural variability alone." Australia has been particularly hard-hit by global warming, with sea levels and ocean temperatures around the continent rising faster than world averages. In the past 18 months, Australia has endured two La Ninas – leading to the nation recording its wettest two-year period since instrumental records began in the 1880s. The rainfall led to flooding in Queensland last year that killed dozens of people and caused damage to farms, houses and business of about $AUS30 billion.

Heavy rainfall over the recent summer has caused further bouts of heavy flooding across vast swathes of territory in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. This led to the highest two-year average rainfall on record. Despite the recent cooler, rain-inducing La Nina weather pattern, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to lead to hotter weather in the coming decades. The report says average temperatures could rise by up to 5C by 2070. "Global changes of this magnitude happen very rarely," said Karl Braganza, the head of climate monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology. "They happen when asteroids strike, they happen when there's planetary volcanic activity. They are happening now because we are digging up fossil fuels and basically burning them all. And we are doing that very, very rapidly." The snapshot comes months before Australia's controversial tax on carbon emissions by heavy polluters comes into effect on July 1. The scheme will impose a tax of $AUS23 per ton on emissions and will be the world's biggest carbon reduction scheme outside Europe.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
360. percylives
10:45 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Weather Underground predicts 91 degrees for Charlottesville, VA today. I know yesterday I was sweating like it was July. Well, old July, I don't want to think about what new July might be like.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
359. aspectre
9:21 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
352 BobWallace "Anyone else have their screens freeze up for a while due to the animations sunlinepr posts? I can't scroll past them until they play through or whatever."

On rare occasions with previous computers, which have tended to be around 3to4 hardware and 2to3 OperatingSystem generations removed from the latest.
(I've always gotten my browsing computers for free as they've become too slow for professional use. Even then I don't switch until after the old one blows up or its OS loses support.)
With my latest(old-but-free)computer, occasionally they've kept the CPU at max and fans at max, but no freeze so far... which may change when I take a look at the previous page

Then again, WU occasionally gets screwed up by its advertisers. You may be experiencing ad-farm freeze, in which your computer keeps trying to contact an advertiser's server even though their server keeps ignoring your computers request.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
358. Neapolitan
9:15 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
The sun just threw off yet another flare, this one a relatively weak M1.8, apparently also from AR1432. That makes three M-class flares in about 40 hours. Not too bad. 1429 will be back around near the end of March; it'll be interesting to see what happens by then...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
357. OracleDeAtlantis
7:56 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
The "missing" frames are perhaps the most interesting observation. I haven't verified this, however.

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
356. AussieStorm
7:45 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
355. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:16 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.7S 113.4E or 670 km north northwest of Karratha 750 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but should accelerate to the southeast during Friday and early morning Saturday, towards the east Pilbara coast. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today or overnight, but gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday between Mardie and Bidyadanga as the cyclone approaches the coast . Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.1S 114.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.0S 116.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 20.4S 120.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 26.7S 120.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on visible imagery and some recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis Visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8-0.9 giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. Final intensity estimate is set to 60 knots 10-min mean, with ASCAT showing some 50 knot winds to the north of the system.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

Movement has been very slow in the last few hours as the steering influence of the upper ridge to the southwest is balanced by the vigorous northwesterly monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the monsoonal flow dominates. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario with a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
354. Fieldofflowers
5:02 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
A big thank you to Jeff for posting my pic! To add to that I was out at Como conservatory this Wednesday. There's nothing blooming outside yet, but I did see the leaves of Daffodils poking up from the ground. Lots of things sprouting. Robins, woodpeckers, and chickadees all singing their spring songs. Como Lake is thawing and ducks are having a time as well as people. I even saw one man running shirtless! Crazy heat. I like it but do worry what will happen when the weather pattern corrects itself.

Member Since: September 29, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 11
353. CybrTeddy
5:02 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
They did according to certain simpletons.


Simpletons sadly though, gather more attention than those with a level head and actual knowledge of the subject.

If it weren't for the media, December 21st would pass as any other day.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
352. BobWallace
4:56 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Anyone else have their screens freeze up for a while due to the animations sunlinepr posts?

I can't scroll past them until they play through or whatever.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
351. BobWallace
4:52 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good evening.Interesting drive you had :).With these above average temps winter is just about over.Unless of coarse it comes back with a rengence.


That's easy for you to say.

It snowed a bit here last night and I've been pushing wood into the stove all day today.

Winter came early here in October, went away for December, but now it's back. Got lucky day before yesterday, forecast was for a foot of new. But the storm strangely went south....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
350. Slamguitar
4:43 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
T-storms starting to pop up in lower Michigan. Hopefully I can fall asleep to some rain tonight.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1176
349. KoritheMan
4:41 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the part that catches me the most is that the mayans are not the only ones to use that date to indicate some type of event occuring at that time there are other civilizations to use it as well


We'll see. It certainly wouldn't be the first time I've been proven wrong.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
348. KoritheMan
4:41 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting Birthmark:

I see you've played Knifey-Spoony before!


;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
347. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:18 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm going to treat it like it's nothing.
the part that catches me the most is that the mayans are not the only ones to use that date to indicate some type of event occuring at that time there are other civilizations to use it as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52373
346. Birthmark
4:16 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm going to treat it like it's nothing.

I see you've played Knifey-Spoony before!
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5279
345. sunlinepr
4:10 AM GMT on March 15, 2012




Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
344. KoritheMan
4:05 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some are yes
but to be honest we really and simply do not know
we have only a very limited knowlege of there writings
most were destroy by the spanish and church
if it means anything at all
we are all about to come to that point in time
to find out together
maybe it is nothing
but then again it could be something
we just do not know


I'm going to treat it like it's nothing.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
343. sunlinepr
3:59 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:56 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
They did according to certain simpletons.

some are yes
but to be honest we really and simply do not know
we have only a very limited knowlege of there writings
most were destroy by the spanish and church
if it means anything at all
we are all about to come to that point in time
to find out together
maybe it is nothing
but then again it could be something
we just do not know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52373
341. Patrap
3:52 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
I suggest maybe a er, look at the Second Video here.

Its a tad related to the well, check it out.



newly-discovered-artifacts


sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125704
340. KoritheMan
3:45 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

but the mayans never said the world will end
They did according to certain simpletons.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
339. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:43 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nah, we won't make it there. Don't forget the Mayans!

but the mayans never said the world will end
they said it will end as we know it
therefore we are still here just not like before
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52373
338. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:40 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Just looking at soundings for Sunday morning on the 00Z NAM. Surprisingly enough, it's falling right in line with the 18Z GFS showing the conditions coming together for a major tornado outbreak.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
337. nigel20
3:39 AM GMT on March 15, 2012
Good night guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7477

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.