Remarkable week-long March heat wave hitting U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:02 PM GMT on March 14, 2012

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A highly unusual week-long heat wave is building over much of the U.S., and promises to bring the warmest temperatures ever seen so early in year to a large portion of the Midwest. The exceptional heat will also be exceptionally long-lasting: record-breaking temperatures 20 - 30 degrees F above normal are expected today through next Wednesday for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S. The weather system responsible is a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is "stuck" in place--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." The jet stream is bending far to the south over the Western U.S., then bending far to the north over the Rockies and into Canada, and lies far to the north of the eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, the current looping pattern is bringing colder than normal temperatures and snow to the mountains of the West, and summer-like warmth to the Eastern U.S. It is common for the jet stream to get stuck in a blocking pattern for a period of a week or more, but not in to this extremity. If the current model forecasts prove correct, a high pressure ridge over the U.S. bringing heat this intense and long-lasting in March will be unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1872.


Figure 1. Is this March or June? Predicted high temperatures for Wednesday, March 14, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

Here are the hottest all-time recorded temperatures measured prior to March 20 for some selected U.S. cities. All of these records will be seriously threatened during the coming week:

Madison, WI: 77°F on March 7, 2000
Milwaukee, WI: 77°F on March 7 - 8, 2000
Minneapolis, MN: 73°F on March 7, 2000
Des Moines, IA: 82°F on March 11, 1972
Chicago, IL: 81°F on March 12, 1990
Detroit, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000
Lansing, MI: 79°F on March 8, 2000
Muskegon, MI: 73°F on March 8, 2000
Grand Rapids, MI: 78°F on March 8, 2000
Flint, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000

As you can see, the expected warm temperatures during the coming week will rival those recorded on March 8, 2000, when most of the Upper Midwest set all-time records for the warmest temperature ever measured so early in the year. That warm surge was caused by a ridge of high pressure that was not as strong as the one expected to build in during the coming week, and the March 8, 2000 ridge did not stick around long enough to generate more than two days of record-breaking high temperatures. A powerful low pressure system moved through Northern Wisconsin on March 8, 2000, dragging a cold front through the state that triggered a thunderstorm that spawned the earliest tornado ever recorded in Milwaukee County.


Figure 2. New daily high temperature records were set at 208 locations yesterday, according to our new Extremes web page, with data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Hot days in Minneapolis
In Minneapolis, Minnesota yesterday, the high temperature reached 67°F, which is the 7th warmest temperature measured so early in the year, and 27°F above the normal high of 40°F for the date. Since weather records in the city go back to 1872, we can expect that Minneapolis will experience a temperature of 67°F or higher this early in the year once every 20 years, on average. What's really remarkable is that the forecast for Minneapolis calls for a high temperature of 70 - 75° every day for the next seven days. Since 1872, there have only been nine days that the temperature has gotten to 70°F prior to March 20, with 73°F on March 7, 2000 being the hottest day. So, over the course of the next week, we are likely to break the all-time high for so early in the year, and add nearly double the number of 70°F-plus days. The situation is similar for much of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and surrounding states. With temperatures already averaging at least 5°F over much of the Midwest this month, it's very likely that this month will be the warmest March on record for at least seven states.

Unusual snows on the Oregon coast
As is often the case, record heat in one part of the country means that another part is experiencing unusual cold, due to a kink in the jet stream. On Monday, 6.0" of snow fell at Newport, OR, and 8.5" at Tillamook (about halfway up the coast between Newport and Astoria). According to statistics at the Western Regional Climate Center, the Newport snowfall was their greatest March snowfall on record (previous was 2.0" in March 1906) and the their 3rd greatest snowfall of any month since records began in 1893. The latest-greater snowfall at Newport was 11.0" on Dec. 3-4, 1972. This tied with another 11.0" snow in January 1943 as their greatest snowfalls on record. For Tillamook it was the biggest snow since 9.0" in January 1971 (but well short of their all-time snowfall of 19.0" in March 1951).

Jeff Masters

Too soon. Too soon for flowers. (Fieldofflowers)
Uh Oh. After a couple record breaking highs and a week of 60+ degree days in forecast, our spring flowers are springing out really early. This rain storm is only going to make this columbine and other things grow even more.
Too soon. Too soon for flowers.
CoastalSnow!! (kristinarinell)
after a day of high winds, high surf we now get snow!!!
CoastalSnow!!
Robin in Maple Buds (gardner48197)
Robin in Maple Buds

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Sorry I have not been on to answer some people who asked for my comments. I will try and catch up and answer them.

1. I believe it was Hurricane Alberto
2. Every 3 years
3. It could with a cold front.
4. Yes, it is.
5. Only when I laugh.
6. Boise, Idaho.
7. 1923

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Sometimes the Linguistics hit, but hey, meh'


So, it sounds like you are not anxious to distinguish the general statistical layout of their prognostications' success from those of, say, astrologic origin.

It's good to be open-minded nonetheless, even if always with tongue in cheek as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from solarham.com

The comet named "Swan" is now visible in Lasco C2 images and continues on its trek towards the Sun where it will soon burn up.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Boring hot weather to continue as long as the GFS runs go.

Ill go crazy if this keeps up

Oh, and I forgot to mention Happy π Day
(3/14 1:59)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My house internet is down.

I havnt the slightest clue who i am connected to right now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting brendanjames:


my first indication... that website looks like it was designed in the 90s... if someone cant make the effort to make their website look somewhat professional then how am i to take anything they post as "science" with more than a grain of salt.


A valid observation.

Then again, time passes more quickly than we realize ... 'My website was fine yesterday ... why shouldn't it be today? I'll just plug in today's data, just like I did yesterday and everything 'll be fine...' goes the unthunk thought.

And as a general rule, guys over 40 don't have a gosub command that calls on a fashion update subroutine.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sometimes the Linguistics hit, but hey, meh'

were setting up the 4.5 reflector to look at the Conjunction, Jupiter is always nice in the inch and a quarter full 9.5mm eyepiece.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting yqt1001:


NHC has a website that has a technical design that is of the 90s (has an appearance of the early 2000s though), does that mean everything they say is false? And besides, you can't expect everyone to be a genius with CSS and make nice looking websites.

But my god, the NHC has to be my most hated website. They use tables for structural design.. I shudder every time I see it.


i think the NHC has a lot more leeway because they have provable science that's based on repetition, and observable data.

not just wild speculation on a geocities lookalike site that feeds off of "be scared, be scared dont trust anyone but my site." reminds me of alex jones.



Member Since: January 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
Quoting brendanjames:


my first indication... that website looks like it was designed in the 90s... if someone cant make the effort to make their website look somewhat professional then how am i to take anything they post as "science" with more than a grain of salt.


NHC has a website that has a technical design that is of the 90s (has an appearance of the early 2000s though), does that mean everything they say is false? And besides, you can't expect everyone to be a genius with CSS and make nice looking websites.

But my god, the NHC has to be my most hated website. They use tables for structural design.. I shudder every time I see it.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Odd circulation here passing west of Andros Island.


Pinhole????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It was 86 degrees on my car themometer!!.The Cherry blossoms are blooming like crazy!.The white Cherry blossom trees look so beautiful right now.And I wouldn't be surprised by the beginning of April if we have full grown leaves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Pat,

You put much stock in that halfpasthuman operation? I have heard the pair interviewed on the radio a couple of times. Interesting.

Refusing to be clear about replicable protocol is always a red flag for me, though.


my first indication... that website looks like it was designed in the 90s... if someone cant make the effort to make their website look somewhat professional then how am i to take anything they post as "science" with more than a grain of salt.
Member Since: January 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
Odd circulation here passing west of Andros Island.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Quite the mathematician, aren't you?

I strongly dislike math.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting Patrap:
sun doc's?,..Hmmm...is this good for us here on earth?



Pat,

You put much stock in that halfpasthuman operation? I have heard the pair interviewed on the radio a couple of times. Interesting.

Refusing to be clear about replicable protocol is always a red flag for me, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current Mayan Date

baktun 12 katun 19 tun 19 uinal 3 kin 18
Haab: 6 Cumku
Tzolkin: 8 Etxnab
Mayan epoch: 11 Aug, 3114 B.C.E.

...date based on local time 7:11:5pm, Wed Mar 14, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
sun doc's?,..Hmmm...is this good for us here on earth?


sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data


SDO AIA 211

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, we still have 97 days, 2343 hours, 140633 minutes, and a little over 8 million seconds left.


Quite the mathematician, aren't you?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the seabreeze, we get it all the time during THE SUMMER.

Seabreezes in early Spring: A typical side effect of a heat wave. :P
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean it's not summer?

No, we still have 97 days, 2343 hours, 140633 minutes, and a little over 8 million seconds left.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting BobWallace:



Nature/weather is physics.

And we've been messing with the physics....




Nature will kill us anyway. We're only making the problem worse by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. We're going down a slippery slope, one of which some of us will not live to regret.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Funnel Cloud and hailing here...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nature doesn't give two ***** about our plights.



Nature/weather is physics.

And we've been messing with the physics....


Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's the seabreeze, we get it all the time during THE SUMMER.


You mean it's not summer?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Quoting Ameister12:
This is pretty cool. Notice the outflow boundary, extending across the South and North Carolina border. Just before this outflow boundary formed, there were a pair a strong storms near Wilmington and Myrtle Beach and now they vanished. Perfect example of the effect outflow has on storms.
Wilmington, NC Radar

That's the seabreeze, we get it all the time during THE SUMMER.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know, it's unfortunate really, but as I just said, we cannot have our pie and eat it too.

If I could move everybody out of the plains into bigger, better homes and allow all the tornado outbreaks to occur over the completely abandoned areas, I would. But...that's not plausible.


Nature doesn't give two ***** about our plights.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
Thanks for your valued input everybody; sure has given us something to talk about tomorrow over breakfast? 1am Here now!
Enjoy your summer, in winter, in the North Americas, I hope this is not a forerunner of a mean summer and the early "sun tan, credit charge card, interest rate isn't too high?"
Hasta Manana.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
Official Warning #1

Beware the Ides of March
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
Quoting yqt1001:


Apparently we are getting those here in Southern Ontario tomorrow. I will be flying back home to the North before I can witness them though. :(

That's very impressive to have that kind of weather up north in Canada. I guess the heat wave is affecting you too.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
U.S. cities see record breaking temperatures

Some 300 temperature records have been matched or broken so far during the week of March 11, 2012.

(CBS News) - From a warm winter, to an early spring, most of the U.S. is experiencing record high temperatures for this time of year.

A total of 300 temperature records have been matched or broken so far this week. This is the warmest March 14 on record in Milwaukee, where it has reached 77 degrees, in St. Louis where it has hit 83 and in Chicago, which reached 81 degrees today.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57397666/u.s- cities-see-record-breaking-temperatures/

Nationally, sales of show shovels were down 19 percent, snow blowers off 32 percent, and rock salt sales down a whopping 41 percent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love Ohio's weather. =D
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting BobWallace:


Shouldn't it still be ice fishing season?

Seems like back when I lived there we were on the ice until spring.

With cars and ice houses....


Exactly! It's still technically Winter for a few more days, and what have we here? 80 degree weather??? In Michigan??!?! For nearly a whole week?!?! Craziness I tell you!!
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
Quoting Ameister12:

Just because it would be in a rural area, doesn't mean we won't see deaths and destruction. There could be several small towns that could be whipped off the face of the earth from a powerful tornado. Think about Manchester, SD.

I know, it's unfortunate really, but as I just said, we cannot have our pie and eat it too.

If I could move everybody out of the plains into bigger, better homes and allow all the tornado outbreaks to occur over the completely abandoned areas, I would. But...that's not plausible.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
201. Ameister12
11:47 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest GFS shows a massive tornado outbreak on Sunday across western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. If the model were to come true, Sunday would almost certainly be another high risk day, but unfortunately, I doubt the model run will come true and it will probably go back to the boring squall line it has shown in previous runs. Who knows though, the 12Z also had some tornado potential.

We'll see...It'd be a perfect outbreak if the 18Z were to come true because we'd see massive tornadoes in a very rural area.

Note: No, this is not an exaggeration.

What KoritheMan said. :P
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
200. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:47 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just sayin bro.

I realize this, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
199. KoritheMan
11:46 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

but it's better than having it in a largely populated area.

We can't have our pie and eat it too.


Just sayin bro.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
198. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:46 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


Rural =/= unpopulated.

but it's better than having it in a largely populated area.

We can't have our pie and eat it too. We can only sniff the sweet, sweet smell it emits.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
197. KoritheMan
11:44 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest GFS shows a massive tornado outbreak on Sunday across western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. If the model were to come true, Sunday would almost certainly be another high risk day, but unfortunately, I doubt the model run will come true and it will probably go back to the boring squall line it has shown in previous runs. Who knows though, the 12Z also had some tornado potential.

We'll see...It'd be a perfect outbreak if the 18Z were to come true because we'd see massive tornadoes in a very rural area.


Rural =/= unpopulated.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21230
196. Ameister12
11:44 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
This is pretty cool. Notice the outflow boundary, extending across the South and North Carolina border. Just before this outflow boundary formed, there were a pair a strong storms near Wilmington and Myrtle Beach and now they vanished. Perfect example of the effect outflow has on storms.
Wilmington, NC Radar
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
195. brendanjames
11:37 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The earth Mantle-Core effect in charge-asymmetries for atmospheric neutrino oscillations
Auteur(s) / Author(s)
BERNABEU J. ; PALOMARES-RUIZ S. ; PEREZ A. ; PETCOV S. T. ;
Résumé / Abstract
Earth medium effects in the three-neutrino oscillations of atmospheric neutrinos are observable under appropriate conditions. This Letter generalizes the study of the medium effects and the possibility of their observation in the atmospheric neutrino oscillations from the case of neutrinos traversing only the Earth mantle, whey the density is essentially constant, to the case of atmospheric neutrinos crossing also the Earth core. In the latter case new resonance-like effects become apparent. We calculate the CPT-odd asymmetry for the survival probability of muon neutrinos and the observable muon-charge asymmetry, taking into account the different atmospheric neutrino fluxes, and show the dependence of these asymmetries on the sign of Δm231, and on the magnitude of the mixing angle θ13. A magnetized detector with a sufficiently good neutrino momentum resolution is required for the observation of the muon-charge asymmetry generated by the Earth mantle-core effect.
Revue / Journal Title
Physics letters. Section B ISSN 0370-2693 CODEN PYLBAJ
Source / Source
2002, vol. 531, no1-2, pp. 90-98 [9 page(s) (article)]
Langue / Language
Anglais

Editeur / Publisher
Elsevier, Kidlington, ROYAUME-UNI (1967) (Revue)

Localisation / Location
INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 9425 B, 35400010094655.0110




billions of nutrinos passed through you as you copy pasted that. i dont understand how a particle that has no charge and therefore very very rarely interacts with matter could have an effect. its like shooting a bullet through the air and saying it caused a hypercane...
Member Since: January 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
194. yqt1001
11:37 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
This is ridiculous! Summer-type storms in very early spring!? Heck, the spring equinox is still 6 days away.


Apparently we are getting those here in Southern Ontario tomorrow. I will be flying back home to the North before I can witness them though. :(
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
193. Barefootontherocks
11:30 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
What if Black Sabbath met Kubrick?

Kubrick would win.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
192. BobWallace
11:29 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting Slamguitar:
Broke a record today in Kalamazoo, MI by getting above 80F.


Shouldn't it still be ice fishing season?

Seems like back when I lived there we were on the ice until spring.

With cars and ice houses....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
191. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:27 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
The latest GFS shows a massive tornado outbreak on Sunday across western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. If the model were to come true, Sunday would almost certainly be another high risk day, but unfortunately, I doubt the model run will come true and it will probably go back to the boring squall line it has shown in previous runs. Who knows though, the 12Z also had some tornado potential.

We'll see...It'd be a perfect outbreak if the 18Z were to come true because we'd see massive tornadoes in a very rural area.

Note: No, this is not an exaggeration.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32706
190. Ameister12
11:22 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
This is ridiculous! Summer-type storms in very early spring!? Heck, the spring equinox is still 6 days away.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
189. Barefootontherocks
11:21 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
136. I'm certain Reed understands that, he lives in Oklahoma afterall.

So do I.
:)

Comment 185 will give you the gist.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
188. PlazaRed
11:21 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
What if Black Sabbath met Kubrick?

Would that be?
Master of Reality?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2150
187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:15 PM GMT on March 14, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


:D

That reminded me of the sad joke of a movie 2012. Neutrinos are one of the least effective particles for influencing anything, let alone heating a planetary core to the point of massive tectonic shifts.

They had one hell of a special effects budget though.


The earth Mantle-Core effect in charge-asymmetries for atmospheric neutrino oscillations
Auteur(s) / Author(s)
BERNABEU J. ; PALOMARES-RUIZ S. ; PEREZ A. ; PETCOV S. T. ;
Résumé / Abstract
Earth medium effects in the three-neutrino oscillations of atmospheric neutrinos are observable under appropriate conditions. This Letter generalizes the study of the medium effects and the possibility of their observation in the atmospheric neutrino oscillations from the case of neutrinos traversing only the Earth mantle, whey the density is essentially constant, to the case of atmospheric neutrinos crossing also the Earth core. In the latter case new resonance-like effects become apparent. We calculate the CPT-odd asymmetry for the survival probability of muon neutrinos and the observable muon-charge asymmetry, taking into account the different atmospheric neutrino fluxes, and show the dependence of these asymmetries on the sign of Δm231, and on the magnitude of the mixing angle θ13. A magnetized detector with a sufficiently good neutrino momentum resolution is required for the observation of the muon-charge asymmetry generated by the Earth mantle-core effect.
Revue / Journal Title
Physics letters. Section B ISSN 0370-2693 CODEN PYLBAJ
Source / Source
2002, vol. 531, no1-2, pp. 90-98 [9 page(s) (article)]
Langue / Language
Anglais

Editeur / Publisher
Elsevier, Kidlington, ROYAUME-UNI (1967) (Revue)

Localisation / Location
INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 9425 B, 35400010094655.0110

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55635

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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