Remarkable week-long March heat wave hitting U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:02 PM GMT on March 14, 2012

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A highly unusual week-long heat wave is building over much of the U.S., and promises to bring the warmest temperatures ever seen so early in year to a large portion of the Midwest. The exceptional heat will also be exceptionally long-lasting: record-breaking temperatures 20 - 30 degrees F above normal are expected today through next Wednesday for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S. The weather system responsible is a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is "stuck" in place--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." The jet stream is bending far to the south over the Western U.S., then bending far to the north over the Rockies and into Canada, and lies far to the north of the eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, the current looping pattern is bringing colder than normal temperatures and snow to the mountains of the West, and summer-like warmth to the Eastern U.S. It is common for the jet stream to get stuck in a blocking pattern for a period of a week or more, but not in to this extremity. If the current model forecasts prove correct, a high pressure ridge over the U.S. bringing heat this intense and long-lasting in March will be unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1872.


Figure 1. Is this March or June? Predicted high temperatures for Wednesday, March 14, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

Here are the hottest all-time recorded temperatures measured prior to March 20 for some selected U.S. cities. All of these records will be seriously threatened during the coming week:

Madison, WI: 77°F on March 7, 2000
Milwaukee, WI: 77°F on March 7 - 8, 2000
Minneapolis, MN: 73°F on March 7, 2000
Des Moines, IA: 82°F on March 11, 1972
Chicago, IL: 81°F on March 12, 1990
Detroit, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000
Lansing, MI: 79°F on March 8, 2000
Muskegon, MI: 73°F on March 8, 2000
Grand Rapids, MI: 78°F on March 8, 2000
Flint, MI: 80°F on March 8, 2000

As you can see, the expected warm temperatures during the coming week will rival those recorded on March 8, 2000, when most of the Upper Midwest set all-time records for the warmest temperature ever measured so early in the year. That warm surge was caused by a ridge of high pressure that was not as strong as the one expected to build in during the coming week, and the March 8, 2000 ridge did not stick around long enough to generate more than two days of record-breaking high temperatures. A powerful low pressure system moved through Northern Wisconsin on March 8, 2000, dragging a cold front through the state that triggered a thunderstorm that spawned the earliest tornado ever recorded in Milwaukee County.


Figure 2. New daily high temperature records were set at 208 locations yesterday, according to our new Extremes web page, with data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Hot days in Minneapolis
In Minneapolis, Minnesota yesterday, the high temperature reached 67°F, which is the 7th warmest temperature measured so early in the year, and 27°F above the normal high of 40°F for the date. Since weather records in the city go back to 1872, we can expect that Minneapolis will experience a temperature of 67°F or higher this early in the year once every 20 years, on average. What's really remarkable is that the forecast for Minneapolis calls for a high temperature of 70 - 75° every day for the next seven days. Since 1872, there have only been nine days that the temperature has gotten to 70°F prior to March 20, with 73°F on March 7, 2000 being the hottest day. So, over the course of the next week, we are likely to break the all-time high for so early in the year, and add nearly double the number of 70°F-plus days. The situation is similar for much of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and surrounding states. With temperatures already averaging at least 5°F over much of the Midwest this month, it's very likely that this month will be the warmest March on record for at least seven states.

Unusual snows on the Oregon coast
As is often the case, record heat in one part of the country means that another part is experiencing unusual cold, due to a kink in the jet stream. On Monday, 6.0" of snow fell at Newport, OR, and 8.5" at Tillamook (about halfway up the coast between Newport and Astoria). According to statistics at the Western Regional Climate Center, the Newport snowfall was their greatest March snowfall on record (previous was 2.0" in March 1906) and the their 3rd greatest snowfall of any month since records began in 1893. The latest-greater snowfall at Newport was 11.0" on Dec. 3-4, 1972. This tied with another 11.0" snow in January 1943 as their greatest snowfalls on record. For Tillamook it was the biggest snow since 9.0" in January 1971 (but well short of their all-time snowfall of 19.0" in March 1951).

Jeff Masters

Too soon. Too soon for flowers. (Fieldofflowers)
Uh Oh. After a couple record breaking highs and a week of 60+ degree days in forecast, our spring flowers are springing out really early. This rain storm is only going to make this columbine and other things grow even more.
Too soon. Too soon for flowers.
CoastalSnow!! (kristinarinell)
after a day of high winds, high surf we now get snow!!!
CoastalSnow!!
Robin in Maple Buds (gardner48197)
Robin in Maple Buds

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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
This is so not March.
This is 2012, son. And you know what that means...
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Gainesville, FL hit 85 degrees today. The Ave for this day is 74 with the record being 92. Weather.com had today down as "Partly Cloudy". The local Mets said 20% chance of rain. It felt like June as the heating of the day produced heavy rain with pea size hail from 7:00 PM to 8:00 PM tonight. I didn't see that one coming. This is so not March.
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Some1Has2BetheRookie come out from hiding..
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Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah it would.

I know it's been said a several times, but its astonishing the amount of tornadoes and severe weather we have had so far this year and this spring/summer could be very bad.

It's a bit concerning really.

We are nearly three times ahead of last year in tornado reports. Of course, we'll probably lose the lead by mid and late April, or we could end up having a worse season than last year.

Just gotta wait and see...but it's not looking too good.

Adjusted to remove overcount:





Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813

Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah it would.

I know it's been said a several times, but its astonishing the amount of tornadoes and severe weather we have had so far this year and this spring/summer could be very bad.
That's what (a typical) La Nina will do to you, bro.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

And that, my friends, will be the national headline next week.

Yeah it would.

I know it's been said several times, but its astonishing the amount of tornadoes and severe weather we have had so far this year and this spring/summer could be very bad.
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Quoting nigel20:
The negative PDO is preventing the warm water to move further west in the tropical pacific for now
That El nino will never get to full force like it did back in 09.
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I thought neutrinos were some sorta Louisiana rodent
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Quoting bluenosedave:


I've been on the road the past two days, and now I'm configuring a whole new desktop system. Bejasus, it's lovely. The new monitor, in particular.

Wicked downpours on my drive home today in SW Nova Scotia. The kind of stuff I've never seen before outside of summer. Temps were just above freezing, so it was rain instead of snow. Nearly hydroplaned on the Bear River bridge, which could have been very, very nasty.
Good evening.Interesting drive you had :).With these above average temps winter is just about over.Unless of coarse it comes back with a rengence.
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The negative PDO is preventing the warm water to move further west in the tropical pacific for now
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, where to start? The NCDC just updated the daily record page, and says there were 250 record daily highs and 84 record daily high minimums (also: 1 record daily low and 10 record daily low maximums). The evening numbers are always preliminary, and undercount by at least 25%-30%, so the final numbers will likely come in, respectively, around 350/120/2/15.

So far this year, record highs of all types have outnumber record lows by a margin of 7,768 (8,960 to 1,192). That figure wasn't reached last year until June 15.

Wow! That's all I can say
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Quoting washingtonian115:
So where is everybody?.I had no one to talk to on this here blog for two days.I'm ready to rock and roll you bastards :).


I've been on the road the past two days, and now I'm configuring a whole new desktop system. Bejasus, it's lovely. The new monitor, in particular.

Wicked downpours on my drive home today in SW Nova Scotia. The kind of stuff I've never seen before outside of summer. Temps were just above freezing, so it was rain instead of snow. Nearly hydroplaned on the Bear River bridge, which could have been very, very nasty.

I was told there was a thunderstorm here in Yarmouth before I got home. We don't get thunderstorms in Yarmouth in mid-March. Well, I guess we do now.
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Quoting nigel20:
What records have been broken today?
Oh, where to start? The NCDC just updated the daily record page, and says there were 250 record daily highs and 84 record daily high minimums (also: 1 record daily low and 10 record daily low maximums). The evening numbers are always preliminary, and undercount by at least 25%-30%, so the final numbers will likely come in, respectively, around 350/120/2/15.

So far this year, record highs of all types have outnumber record lows by a margin of 7,768 (8,960 to 1,192). That figure wasn't reached last year until June 15.
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FPCN11 CWTO 142107 AAA
Updated forecasts for Southern Ontario and the National Capital
Region issued by Environment Canada at 5.07 pm edt Wednesday 14 March
2012 for tonight Thursday and Thursday night.
The next scheduled forecast will be issued at 5.00 am Thursday.

City of Toronto.
Tonight..Clear this evening and after midnight then partly cloudy
with 30 percent chance of showers overnight. Risk of a thunderstorm
overnight. Low plus 5.
Thursday..A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers
early in the morning and 70 percent chance of showers in the
afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm. High 19 except 13 near Lake
Ontario. UV index 4 or moderate.
Thursday night..Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers and risk of
a thunderstorm. Low 11.

Burlington - Oakville
Mississauga - Brampton.
Tonight..Clear. Partly cloudy overnight with 30 percent chance of
showers. Risk of a thunderstorm overnight. Low plus 5.
Thursday..Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers early in
the morning and 70 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Risk
of a thunderstorm. High 18 except 13 near Lake Ontario. UV index 3
or moderate.
Thursday night..Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers and risk of
a thunderstorm. Low 11.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This letter doesn't refute the fact that neutrinos rarely interact with anything. In fact, this letter potentially furthers the idea that neutrinos could be used to get a better picture of what's going on within the Earth since they can travel straight through it.

Neutrinos

Neutrinos are nearly massless and have no electrical charge. If you fired a neutrino beam at a block of lead that was one light year in length, you would be able to stop around 50% of the neutrinos.


You guys are a day late and a dollar short, I posted this stuff last week!
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272. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (973 hPa) located at 15.6S 113.3E or 680 km north northwest of Karratha 770 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Lua has begun to move slowly in an easterly direction over the last few hours which should continue today, before accelerating to the southeast during Friday and early morning Saturday, towards the east Pilbara coast. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe as it approaches the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today, but gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday as the cyclone approaches the coast. Destructive to very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 150 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 15.8S 114.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 16.3S 115.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 19.0S 119.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 24.9S 120.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on some very good microwave passes around 2200Z.

Dvorak analysis enhanced infrared imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8 giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. SATCON 1800Z is estimating 60-65 knots 10-min mean. Final intensity estimate is set to 55 knots 10-min mean.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system.

Movement has begun to take a easterly direction in the last few hours as the steering influence of the upper ridge to the southwest reduces and is balanced by the vigorous northwesterly monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens further and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario with a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
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WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Description: Latest CME-based model run
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266. AstroHurricane001

Your seeing the big pic seems too.

Expect things to get weirder still.

Lotsa energies are moving.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
What records have been broken today?
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Look for higher instability and elevated tornado risk next week.
And that, my friends, will be the national headline next week.
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Evening guys
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Blog Hype-DEFCON: currently 11.5/10.0

Quoting Patrap:


When I first saw this, my immediate thought was: OMG! You have got to be kidding me - that's the exact same day that I'd been predicting a large earthquake!

But then I realized I was using the same "methodology" - that is, counting the number of days from the previous large quake, in this case Chile (2010) --> Japan (2011) --> ??? (2012). The youtube poster in this case has been wrong on earthquakes before, but earthquake prediction is at best an inexact science, and in most cases, not a science at all.

Now, tracing backwards 188-9 days reveals no real results beyond the Chile tremblor, other than a magnitude 6.7 quake in the Ryukyu Islands (17 August 2009) and a magnitude 7.2 in eastern Indonesia (11 February 2009). Both occurred in the Pacific rim, but prior to that, no strong earthquake event occurred in the pattern (unless you consider the mag. 5.5 quake, 29 July 2008 in the Chino Hills area to be a strong quake).

Numerological predictions are probably no more reliable than pure guesswork, unless there is some sort of detectable resonance at work.

Granted, I did actually "predict" the Chile earthquake in February 2010, though was not convinced enough in my "prediction" to explicitly post it (except a few remarks about the Humboldt Current being cut off by a warm ENSO Modoki pool at the location of 1960 Valdivia 9.5). Typically, prior to any major earthquake, there is somebody who predicts it, and the more predictions that are made, the more likely an actual earthquake will be "predicted". I was going to write a blog on the Chile quake and possible links to SSTs and El Nino, but have been neglecting to do so for about the past two years or so as a result of unfair procrastination.

There were also many significant earthquakes I did not predict. This, for example, includes the 7.0 Haiti earthquake, the 9.0 Japan earthquake or the 6.3 New Zealand earthquake. Some failed predictions include a mag. ~7 earthquake in Jamaica, which never occurred, unless a set of magnitude 4.3 quakes is within the margin of error.

There will likely be never (or at most, very few) successful officially-directed evacuations of geologically active areas based on earthquake prediction, although unexpected scientific advances are always possible. Until then, most people in earthquake-prone regions will never receive an accurate warning from a prediction for seismic activity before the earthquake actually strikes in their region. It is much more feasible to predict the weather, and even here there are many people complaining about wrong forecasts that ruined their perfect barbeque.

An interesting fact(oid) is that I read in a book or online resource somewhere apprently linking transits of Venus to tsunamis in the ocean. The transits almost always occur in pairs 8 years apart. For example, there were transits of Venus in 1874 and 1882. There was a magnitude 8.8 earthquake in northern Chile in 1877, and the eruption of Krakatoa, between Java and Sumatra in Indonesia affecting the Indian Ocean, occurred with a catastrophic tsunami in 1883.

It's difficult to tell whether the purported correlation between large tsunamis and Venusian transits has any factual basis; for instance, the 1755 'Lisbon' quake and tsunami occurred six years before the first transit. Even then, we must remember that correlation does not imply causation.

Of course, it is still almost three months prior to this year's transit of Venus, and in the midst of all this quake-rambling, don't forget that a spectacular conjunction of Venus and Jupiter is still visible in the western sky (EDT).

A team of six seismologists is currently on trial in Italy for failing to predict the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit the city of L'Aquila in April 2009. Prosecutors argue that the seismologists gave the public imprecise and incomplete information ahead of the deadly earthquake, which killed 309 residents. Despite an international petition signed by nearly 5,000 scientists in support of the seismologists, if the prosecution wins the case, they will be convicted of manslaughter.

I hope my commentary on geo-tectonics has not been too off-base; some geoscientists suggested decades ago that we would now be in an active geological cycle phase. And now, back to the weather:

A ridge of high pressure and mostly dry weather dominates the central and eastern half of North America this week. Some pop-up thunderstorms are continuing across the Southeastern Continental United States. Look for higher instability and elevated tornado risk next week.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's a look at their first archived page.

Of course, if you want to see real change...


I think I'm blind. :( I'm pretty content that I was unable to use the internet until 2006. :P At least then websites had decent aesthetics.
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EDT Wednesday 14 March 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.12 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 53.4°F
Dewpoint: 27.5°F
Humidity: 37 %
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting KoritheMan:


And wouldn't you know it, that's still above average...

That's the incredible part... It's going to feel like winter since it's been 60s and 70s the last 3 days. Heading for our first 80s next week. May need to get the AC cranking!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
we are to be between 71 to 73
with humidex near 74 to 76
with scattered lake breeze thunderstorm activity
near lake breeze areas temp may be slightly cooler while away from the lakes
normally the 401 north will be warmer
which will become prime ground for stationary severe storms to form
on the lake breeze fronts
and daytime heating
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Massachusetts :)
I'll enjoy my warm temps :).
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Actually it's going to be 53 tomorrow :)


And wouldn't you know it, that's still above average...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Where do you live??

Massachusetts :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Actually it's going to be 53 tomorrow :)
Where do you live??
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It's going to be 83 tomorrow.

Actually it's going to be 53 tomorrow :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
It's going to be 83 tomorrow.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's a look at their first archived page.

Of course, if you want to see real change...


I still see the latter stylesheet frequently thrown around here. Is there any way to switch back?
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Quoting yqt1001:
I know I was bashing the NHC a few minutes ago; but I must admit their current design is 100 times better than their design prior to it.

It's so horrible I have nightmares because of it. And they kept it until 2001. :/ Though they definitely need to upgrade the code and design to HTML5/CSS3.
Here's a look at their first archived page.

Of course, if you want to see real change...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Doesn't look like much on radar, but looking out the window it looks like a puffy cloud full of fireflies.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Big storm smashing into the north west.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The earth Mantle-Core effect in charge-asymmetries for atmospheric neutrino oscillations
Auteur(s) / Author(s)
BERNABEU J. ; PALOMARES-RUIZ S. ; PEREZ A. ; PETCOV S. T. ;
Résumé / Abstract
Earth medium effects in the three-neutrino oscillations of atmospheric neutrinos are observable under appropriate conditions. This Letter generalizes the study of the medium effects and the possibility of their observation in the atmospheric neutrino oscillations from the case of neutrinos traversing only the Earth mantle, whey the density is essentially constant, to the case of atmospheric neutrinos crossing also the Earth core. In the latter case new resonance-like effects become apparent. We calculate the CPT-odd asymmetry for the survival probability of muon neutrinos and the observable muon-charge asymmetry, taking into account the different atmospheric neutrino fluxes, and show the dependence of these asymmetries on the sign of Δm231, and on the magnitude of the mixing angle θ13. A magnetized detector with a sufficiently good neutrino momentum resolution is required for the observation of the muon-charge asymmetry generated by the Earth mantle-core effect.
Revue / Journal Title
Physics letters. Section B ISSN 0370-2693 CODEN PYLBAJ
Source / Source
2002, vol. 531, no1-2, pp. 90-98 [9 page(s) (article)]
Langue / Language
Anglais

Editeur / Publisher
Elsevier, Kidlington, ROYAUME-UNI (1967) (Revue)

Localisation / Location
INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 9425 B, 35400010094655.0110



This letter doesn't refute the fact that neutrinos rarely interact with anything. In fact, this letter potentially furthers the idea that neutrinos could be used to get a better picture of what's going on within the Earth since they can travel straight through it.

Neutrinos

Neutrinos are nearly massless and have no electrical charge. If you fired a neutrino beam at a block of lead that was one light year in length, you would be able to stop around 50% of the neutrinos.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Is that a eye feature developing?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is another streak bottom right centre near to the disc


Thats a Photon Blur from a strike usually..,Comets follow a parabolic arc..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
as Spock would say, "Interesting"..

Magnetopause Reversal Update.


Uploaded by MrCometwatch on Mar 14, 2012


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Quoting Patrap:
from solarham.com

The comet named "Swan" is now visible in Lasco C2 images and continues on its trek towards the Sun where it will soon burn up.

there is another streak bottom right centre near to the disc
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting yqt1001:
I know I was bashing the NHC a few minutes ago; but I must admit their current design is 100 times better than their design prior to it.

It's so horrible I have nightmares because of it. And they kept it until 2001. :/ Though they definitely need to upgrade the code and design to HTML5/CSS3.


save the bashing for hurricane season, when we all disagree with the intensity estimates lol
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Almost perfect sounding for a high risk day. The only thing else you could ask for is maybe some stronger winds near the surface.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
I know I was bashing the NHC a few minutes ago; but I must admit their current design is 100 times better than their design prior to it.

It's so horrible I have nightmares because of it. And they kept it until 2001. :/ Though they definitely need to upgrade the code and design to HTML5/CSS3.
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Quoting Grothar:
Sorry I have not been on to answer some people who asked for my comments. I will try and catch up and answer them.

1. I believe it was Hurricane Alberto
2. Every 3 years
3. It could with a cold front.
4. Yes, it is.
5. Only when I laugh.
6. Boise, Idaho.
7. 1923

I see a pinhole eye...yep that's defentially a pin whole eye.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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