March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 822 - 772

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Quoting yqt1001:


I call conspiracy! It's the damn Soviets and Germans! They have been out to get you!

Extreme exaggeration calls for extreme exaggerations..


don't forget the daggum japs and the daggum turban wearin desert men, they are in on the conspiracy too!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7388
Quoting TampaSpin:


SO ITS OK FOR HER GARBAGE POST AND NO ONE SAID NOTHING....ITS OBVIOUS WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT!


WAT...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7388
To break the programming, one needs to study conflict, which is thought, and then, when we realize we are all connected, then, a fundamental change will occur.

We can create a perfect World if not for the Duality and conflict in the way we think.

Thinking together, as we do here is a example of this new, visual Language raising a new Conscience, with all this connectivity.

All this was forseen by a few great teachers one could say.

Jiddu Krishnamurti was one.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
I have a question:

How will the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation we are in affect the possibility of an El Nino developing next fall?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


See the entry, and the First Video from 83,..insight into today.

Plus he predicted Facebook in 68 so I listen carefully to the Speaker myself.


Will do, pat. Thank you.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting TampaSpin:


SO ITS OK FOR HER GARBAGE POST AND NO ONE SAID NOTHING....ITS OBVIOUS WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT!


I call conspiracy! It's the damn Soviets and Germans! They have been out to get you!

Extreme exaggeration calls for extreme exaggerations..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


SO ITS OK FOR HER GARBAGE POST AND NO ONE SAID NOTHING....ITS OBVIOUS WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT!


...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting TampaSpin:


I guess you did not respond to her crap!


Yeah if you are saying my mom is full of crap... you don't want to go there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is that a fancy term for cognitive dissonance?


See the entry, and the First Video from 83,..insight into today.

Plus he predicted Facebook in 68 so I listen carefully to the Speaker myself.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:


"Programming and conflict" can do that.

See my current entry for clarification.

: )


Is that a fancy term for cognitive dissonance?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why do you always throw around the terms "leftist" and "liberal" as if they are something to be ashamed of?


"Programming and conflict" can do that.

See my current entry for clarification.

.."It splain's alot Lucy"..

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Current Atlantic SAL Split Window

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Jedkins01:


Its only March, I would find it hardly likely to determine how things shall be come hurricane season because of how they are now. Just because its dry over there now doesn't mean it will be later, its often quite dry this time of year in those areas.


Yes but they're reporting fires. I don't recall such extremities since at least 2006.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting TampaSpin:



Typical TEACHER...for those that think you are NICE! RIGHT..I MEAN EXTREME LEFT!


Why do you always throw around the terms "leftist" and "liberal" as if they are something to be ashamed of?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Quoting yqt1001:
If it's an eye, it has to be the most interesting development of one of all time.





Those were taken within an hour or so.


It is unusual, but not completely unprecedented. The same event happened in 2004 with Bonnie:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT
22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND
EXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45
KT. IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS
LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE
.

THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND TO 77 AND 83 KT
RESPECTIVELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. IN
CONTRAST...OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL. THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
WITH SUCH DIVERGENT GUIDANCE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

THE STORM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON RECON FIXES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05. THE ONLY GLOBAL TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE ARE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS AND THE GFS ONLY
TRACKS THE STORM TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF THE
FORWARD SPEED AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.4N 89.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 24.1N 89.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 25.3N 90.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 26.6N 89.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 27.7N 88.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 31.0N 84.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0000Z 35.0N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
One looks close to Home in the Sw GOM, Yucatan, western Caribbean for early development, late Sw GOM Frontal CycloGenesis

But climatology is changing seems..some would tend to agree.

So earlier development is possible given the SST's in the Breeding early areas.



oooooooh, right thru Tampa, that one arrow.

; )

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting TampaSpin:



Typical TEACHER...for those that think you are NICE! RIGHT..I MEAN EXTREME LEFT!


My mom is teacher and she is a conservative. Stop it you're making conservatives look ridiculous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Last I checked, west Africa is very dry. A dry Sahel means less potent tropical waves. This might be one of those years where, unless the African monsoon ramps up in earnest, most of the tropical waves that emerge are relatively void of convection until reaching more westward longitudes.


Its only March, I would find it hardly likely to determine how things shall be come hurricane season because of how they are now. Just because its dry over there now doesn't mean it will be later, its often quite dry this time of year in those areas.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7388
Quoting yqt1001:


It isn't?



im just sayin, without a microwave across the center you cant go ahead and make an assumption that its an eye. animations show its open on south anyways...lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Romney kind of reminds me of Al Gore. So stiff and starched you want to send him on Survivor or maybe have his private jet crash so he gets stranded on an island and has to experience what it's like to struggle like the rest of us. And then Santorum with his outlandish ideas about whether women should use birth control or not. We settled that argument a very long time ago.
I don't get how these guys think they can represent the American people.



Typical TEACHER...for those that think you are NICE! RIGHT..I MEAN EXTREME LEFT!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know about you but I have a feeling that we could kick off the atlantic tropical season early and no not the hurricane season I mean the tropical wave season


Last I checked, west Africa is very dry. A dry Sahel means less potent tropical waves. This might be one of those years where, unless the African monsoon ramps up in earnest, most of the tropical waves that emerge are relatively void of convection until reaching more westward longitudes.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 13, 2012


Sunspot 1429 produced a strong M7.9 Solar Flare during the afternoon of March 13, 2012.

A bright and full halo CME was generated, but mostly directed to the west. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) and a Type II Sweep Frequency event resulted as well.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Slightly more detailed IR image:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
If its clear and your in the CDT time Zone, checkout the Venus ,Jupiter conjunction.

Low in the West.



Just did.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
796. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16U

2012MAR14 013200
3.7
983.1
3.6 (Final Dvorak)
3.9
3.9 (Raw)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


i think thats just a convection burst in the center. LLCC isnt beneath the questionable 'eye'


It isn't?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 MAR 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 16:30:04 S Lon : 112:33:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 986.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -85.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.7 degrees




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting yqt1001:
Eye feature remains while the eyewall? gets thicker. Getting suspicious...



If it isn't an eye, I'd be surprised. These kind of fluke eye-like features don't usually last long or look this defined.


i think thats just a convection burst in the center. LLCC isnt beneath the questionable 'eye'
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/Loop

SH172012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) LUA

..click for Loop




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Eye feature remains while the eyewall? gets thicker. Getting suspicious...



If it isn't an eye, I'd be surprised. These kind of fluke eye-like features don't usually last long or look this defined.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SH172012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) LUA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/loop

..click image for loop

ZOOM is available


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
It got to 62F here in Fargo, today. The snow is pretty much gone, it feels like mid-April.

The farmers are really worried about a drought because of how so little snow we got and because of the evaporation from the warm weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emguy:


If that wasn't the movie...maybe I have the answer...but first a question...Are they Magic Grits? ;)


That's the one. I remember it from my yout!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Here, Geoff, Try this:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not all too familar with 10-minute sustained to 1-minute sustained. 40 knot 10-minute is what?



I really don't get the purpose of 10 minute sustained winds, I can't imagine winds hardly ever stay sustained at 10 minutes for any given speed, even less for high speeds. I don't see why the 1 minute sustained isn't globally observed.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7388
785. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


curved band feature noted from SSD based on 16U data.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If it's an eye, it has to be the most interesting development of one of all time.





Those were taken within an hour or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lua doesnt have an eye. if it does, it would be a mid-level only like previously mentioned. CIMSS identifies it as a Uniform CDO, and Microwave animations dont show a complete eyewall, neither does visible satellite images show any indication of any eye. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
780. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
If its clear and your in the CDT time Zone, checkout the Venus,Jupiter conjunction.

Low in the West.



oh so they are the two lights close together.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know about you but I have a feeling that we could kick off the atlantic tropical season early and no not the hurricane season I mean the tropical wave season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not all too familar with 10-minute sustained to 1-minute sustained. 40 knot 10-minute is what?


Not too sure myself.

*sigh*
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 573 Comments: 20371
777. emguy
Quoting flsky:
also read an article tonight where FEMA is going to use AmeriCorps volunteers to help with disasters. Supposed to save about $60M yearly. The vols will get paid with money for college and/or helping to pay back student loans for a year's commitment. A good idea, I think, and will help with FEMA's diminishing coffers.



This could be a major success...or a failure. Money savings is good, as long as it does not interfere with disaster assistance delivery and folks with technical expertise will always be needed. Most of the money in the Disaster Relief Fund is not expended internally...it goes external to the clients (eligible Homeowners, Local Governments, Private non profits and States). The DRF is not a budgeted line item and it will always in depleation. When needed, it gets recharged with more funds. Unfortunately, in the budget talks last fall however, it was used as a political football. Bottom line...You are right...it is everyone's responsibility to be fiscally responsible. If this works...it is $60M well saved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If its clear and your in the CDT time Zone, checkout the Venus,Jupiter conjunction.

Low in the West.

The Venus and Jupiter conjunction is seen from France this week.
Photograph by Laurent Laveder, TWAN

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
775. flsky
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I made a post earlier about them... Both of them, especially Venus, are very bright.


what was the post number and I'll take a look
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
774. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not all too familar with 10-minute sustained to 1-minute sustained. 40 knot 10-minute is what?


45-50 knots (1 min)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not all too familar with 10-minute sustained to 1-minute sustained. 40 knot 10-minute is what?


45kts. It's the same conversion as knots to mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
772. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:39 AM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.4S 128.4E or 120 km west of Port Keats and 190 km east of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low has moved into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone this morning before it crosses the coast between Wyndham and the NT/WA Border late morning or early this afternoon.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu during today.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly and northern Victoria River Districts and Kimberley.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach, including Wyndham.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 15.8S 129.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.7S 130.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.4S 133.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 19.5S 136.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

The tropical low has been located using a combination of surface observations and persistence near the coast in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The circulation appears to be tilted, with the mid-level center of rotation to the west of the low level circulation center, although the system is moving into an area of decreasing shear. A middle level ridge to the east and approaching middle level trough from the southwest will cause the system to move towards the south southeast but it is now close enough to the coast that the chance of it becoming a cyclone is diminishing.

A band of 30kt winds was evident to the north of the low in the 12:54UTC ASCAT pass. Dvorak analysis DT is undetermined, with MET=2.5. FT was held to 2.5. A central cold cover appears to have developed overnight, impending development.

The low is expected to slowly develop over the next six hours by which time it is likely to have crossed the coast and will weaken into a rain depression.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 822 - 772

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
79 °F
Overcast