March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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re: #68, 70
You betcha, RE and ST2K.

Meanwhile, roughly 100 miles to the SE of those flooding rains at my location in Houma-Terrebonne - have gotten none of that activity, no measurable rain since Friday, which was fairly meager at that on both my Cocorah gauges, Bayou Cane: .10" amt, Bayou Blue: .17" amts...
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Piling up rainfall west of Sunset, LA



Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting DocNDswamp:
From NWS Louisiana Public Information, among KLCH office's growing list of reports -

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW ARNAUDVILLE 30.37N 91.99W
03/12/2012 M11.61 INCH ST. LANDRY LA OTHER FEDERAL

THE USGS GAGE AT BAYOU VERMILION NEAR
CARENCRO...BVCL1...HAS RECORDED 11.61 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE ROUGHLY 6 AM THIS MORNING.



That is a lot of rain in such a short amount of time.
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Quoting TampaTom:
Anyone remember what happened 19 years ago today?

Here's a hint.. it was HUGE!



1993 Storm of the Century


I remember it well. I was anchored off Bimini at Alice Town. Blew like stink. I had out three anchors, including my storm anchor, and I still drug.

Some said we had 100 mile an hour gusts, but I had no way to measure. I do know that Alice Town was badly damaged. Nasty storm and at the wrong time of year.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting DocNDswamp:
From NWS Louisiana Public Information, among KLCH office's growing list of reports -

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW ARNAUDVILLE 30.37N 91.99W
03/12/2012 M11.61 INCH ST. LANDRY LA OTHER FEDERAL

THE USGS GAGE AT BAYOU VERMILION NEAR
CARENCRO...BVCL1...HAS RECORDED 11.61 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE ROUGHLY 6 AM THIS MORNING.



Tropical storm like rainfall
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
From NWS Louisiana Public Information, among KLCH office's growing list of reports -

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW ARNAUDVILLE 30.37N 91.99W
03/12/2012 M11.61 INCH ST. LANDRY LA OTHER FEDERAL

THE USGS GAGE AT BAYOU VERMILION NEAR
CARENCRO...BVCL1...HAS RECORDED 11.61 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE ROUGHLY 6 AM THIS MORNING.

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Here's the multi-model ENSO suit...

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Quoting KeyWestSun:

That is because you had started your own blog. Once you create your first blog, the comments automatically reset. Don't ask me why it does that. But it does. It happened to me too. It only happens the one time though, so you'll be okay now.


Okay thanks. No matter anyway, I was just shocked, wondered what happened lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
I have a new (but lame, I admit) blogLink up, if anyone's interested.
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
Roads flood, daycare kids in Carencro City Hall
Posted: Mar 12, 2012 5:09 AM CDT Updated: Mar 12, 2012 11:34 AM CDT

CARENCRO, La. (AP) - Strong thunderstorms flooded Carencro, with water reported in at least 10 houses and about 15 children evacuated from a daycare center to City Hall.

The Advertiser reports that water was at least waist-deep in most streets in the heart of Carencro on Monday.

Clie Guidry said parents picked up about half the children at her daycare center before streets flooded Monday morning. She got the rest to City Hall as a precaution.

Louisiana State Police closed Interstate 49 between Lafayette and Opelousas.

The severe weather also caused damage in different parts of Louisiana overnight, but no injuries were reported.

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles reports a tree fell on a house in Jennings.
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Another developing heavy cell moving north of Lafayette
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting RitaEvac:
Torndao vortex SW of NOLA


False return.
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Torndao vortex SW of NOLA

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting TampaTom:
Anyone remember what happened 19 years ago today?

Here's a hint.. it was HUGE!



1993 Storm of the Century

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This is from the storms over Lake Michigan.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

LMZ644>646-669-671-673-675-121745-
/O.CON.KMKX.MA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120312T1745Z/
1205 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI...
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI...
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE...

AT 1158 AM CDT...THE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL FROM 9 NM NORTHEAST OF NORTH PT. LT. TO 7 NM
WEST OF WIND PT....MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN
CALEDONIA...WHICH IS HALFWAY BETWEEN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE.


THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5NM OFF SHORE
TO MID LAKE AROUND 1220 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS
SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 8788 4310 8789 4362 8737 4363 8729
4343 8724 4274 8730 4266 8780 4272 8777
4275 8779 4280 8777 4286 8785 4297 8785
4302 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 217DEG 40KT 4320 8768 4310 8768
4279 8787
WIND...HAIL 65KNOTS >.75IN

$$

MRC




with the radar to refresh your memory :D

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T6 Cell turning a 180

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Thanks Dr. M and Caicos.............
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Very off-topic here, I know, but does anyone know why I'm back down to 5 comments? I was near 150 before.
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Anyone remember what happened 19 years ago today?

Here's a hint.. it was HUGE!



1993 Storm of the Century
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Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
I'm good, I've been here lurking as there wasn't much for me to comment on, not been too stormy out there lately.

SPC just updated the convective outlook, Michigan might get some storms.







good ta hear!

i have recently figured out how to copy and paste text lol. i told yal i wasnt a computer person...xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Some storms headed to Michigan, getting a little heavier (and maybe stronger?) on radar.

Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
I'm good, I've been here lurking as there wasn't much for me to comment on, not been too stormy out there lately.

SPC just updated the convective outlook, Michigan might get some storms.





Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
This monster severe thunderstorm has produced an outflow boundary in which more storms keep forming behind it. The rain continues to fall where they really, really don't need it.

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Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Some light showers headed my way, hope they hold off until late tonight, got baseball :)

Storms in southern Alabama weakened significantly, but more storms headed there from Louisiana.

Oh, and hello by the way.



hello BravesFan aint seen you round here n awhile..how ya doin
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Ooops, I see Dr. Masters and I were responding at the same time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters, amazing video!

*Repost from last blog*

There is a line of showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Illinois at this time. As it moves eastward into a more favorable environment, storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost!!
March predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season 3/12/12


Repost:D

Link to my blog concerning Invest areas 95S and 96P if u wanna check it out..:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Still wondering if my position in SW MI will be clipped or not by the storms moving over Lake Michigan this afternoon. It think I'll have a 50/50 chance.
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re #36
quote:
THE BASICS ABOUT TORNADOES
What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is also disagreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well-known that a tornado may not have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers.

FROM:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/
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Quoting washingtonian115:
For the first video pause at 5:32.Keep replaying it.I don't know what that is.


the smoke looking thing?
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41. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. The question I have (for Dr. M or anyone on the Blog)is whether the final "count" is based on "touchdowns" only or visual confirmation by spotters/law enforcement/general public and/or radar data.

My specific question is the following. Assuming that a tornado is confirmed "in the sky" by line-of-sight Doppler radar (confirmed rotation) or reporter observation of the funnel, is it still counted in the final numbers even if it did not touch down? NWS issues a lot of tornado warnings based upon confirmed or possible rotation on radar so I was wondering if these count if a visible funnel cloud never fully materialized, touched down, or was never confirmed by visual observation?

Thanks.


A tornado is counted only if it touches ground. You have to have visual spotter confirmation or a verified tornado damage path on the ground to get a confirmed tornado; a Doppler radar signature is not enough.

Jeff Masters
Radar estimates for Lafayette area are a bit high. Our (LMRFC) multisensor precip estimates are running 11-13" for the Lafayette area.

Still a very anomalous event, however, and thus a flash flood emergency was issued.
1%-chance rainfall for that area over a 6hr period is 8.0-8.5" and we have definitely exceeded that. For comparison 24hr period the 1%-chance rainfall event is ~12.5"

This is a very serious situation with water rescues of school children and people in their homes ongoing. Flooding is most likely right now in our of our ungauged basins. Area hardest hit will be the Vermillion River/Bayou just north of Lafayette, where record flooding may occur.
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Some light showers headed my way, hope they hold off until late tonight, got baseball :)

Storms in southern Alabama weakened significantly, but more storms headed there from Louisiana.

Oh, and hello by the way.

Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
For the first video pause at 5:32 or 5:33.Keep replaying it.I don't know what that is.It's some sort of white ball looking thing.
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Thanks Dr. The question I have (for Dr. M or anyone on the Blog)is whether the final "count" is based on "touchdowns" only or visual confirmation by spotters/law enforcement/general public and/or radar data.

My specific question is the following. Assuming that a tornado is confirmed "in the sky" by line-of-sight Doppler radar (confirmed rotation) or reporter observation of the funnel, is it still counted in the final numbers even if it did not touch down? NWS issues a lot of tornado warnings based upon confirmed or possible rotation on radar so I was wondering if these count if a visible funnel cloud never fully materialized, touched down, or was never confirmed by visual observation?

Thanks.
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This storm in Wisconsin is producing quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That storm in Louisiana responsible for causing 4" an hour rainfall rates is now turning supercellular. Nice rotation is being picked up on the system. We may have a rain-wrapped tornado forming here.



The storm really has a beautiful structure.
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Quoting 1911maker:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/thousands-sp id ers-blanket-australian-farm-escaping-flood-1659580 59.html
Link
Ewwww.I would've had to call pest patrol immedially to come to the house.I don't even think I could come outside.
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Quoting 1911maker:
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/thousands-sp id ers-blanket-australian-farm-escaping-flood-1659580 59.html
Link


NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE
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That storm in Louisiana responsible for causing 4" an hour rainfall rates is now turning supercellular. Nice rotation is being picked up on the system. We may have a rain-wrapped tornado forming here.

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http://www.npr.org/2012/03/12/148318905/renewable-e nergy-throws-power-grid-off-balance
Link

This is the last thing in the above article. I put in the bold
........
One thing the experts agree on: Since wind and solar energy are all about the weather, grid operators will need to hire a lot more weather forecasters..
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SERN WI...FAR SWRN LOWER MI...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121603Z - 121700Z

DMGG WIND THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
PORTIONS OF NRN IL/SERN WI EWD TOWARDS SWRN LWR MI. A WW DOES NOT
APPEAR IMMINENT PRIMARILY OWING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
THIS AFTERNOON.

A NARROW ZONE OF ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG THE SERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED
UPPER MIDWEST LOW HAS SUPPORTED A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM 20 SE
MLI TO 30 E JVL. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED JUST W OF A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SLOWLY ADVECTING NWD
INTO SRN WI. PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NERN IL/SERN WI IS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 60S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
200-500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INHIBITION WAS NOTED IN 12Z
DVN/ILX SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR THE
SFC ATTM. BACKGROUND FLOW FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG /40-50 KTS 0.5-3
KM AGL LAYER MEAN FLOW AS SAMPLED BY LOT/ILX VWP/...AND WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PRIMARY THREAT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DMGG WINDS...BUT A BRIEF/WEAK
TOR THREAT MAY EXIST GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL/S. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING THE PRIMARY FACTOR
PRECLUDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DMGG WIND THREAT ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS.. 03/12/2012
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http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/thousands-spid ers-blanket-australian-farm-escaping-flood-1659580 59.html
Link
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There is a major flooding situation ongoing near Lafayette, Louisiana. There are reports of water coming into homes, streets completely submerged, and water rescues. In an area just north of the city, my GRLevel3 radar is picking up 15.79".

Ouch...

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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* AT 1121 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES
FLOODED. IN ADDITION SEVERAL HIGH WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY.
RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF AROUND 15 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS IS A RARE EVENT AND MAY CAUSE SOME LOCATIONS
LIKE BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO TO REACH RECORD FLOODING.
MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED AND YOU SHOULD NOT TRAVEL IN THIS AREA TODAY.


THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARNAUDVILLE...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...CHURCH POINT...
LEONVILLE...SCOTT...CANKTON...CECILIA...DUSON...GR AND COTEAU...
HENDERSON...MIRE AND SUNSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lafayette LA getting pounding with rain, nearing a foot of rain north of there

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Also, lots of cold for the eastern US. I hope everyone has enjoyed this winter as we may make up for lost time for winter 2012/2013. Winter could be a brutal one for the east.

It's too early to even start looking at that. However, if we must talk about, we may not get to El Nino conditions. I think we'll stay warm neutral, which would limit the possibilities of a harsh winter for the East.

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Speaking of ENSO guess what folks,it cooled on all Nino areas in this week's CPC update released today. Nin o 3.4 cooled to -0.6C.

Link

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Quoting weatherbro:
This El Nino should be a traditional east-based type. Not go for Florida when it comes to tornadoes!


If there is an El Nino in the first place this year. Cold PDO and ENSO forecasts don't look too promising for anymore than warm-neutral.
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What the heck was the guy in the truck doing? BACK UP!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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