March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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Ice helps run rings around the sun



NO, it’s not the apocalypse. This unusual sight, captured about noon yesterday, is a ring around the sun known as a “halo”.

The effect is caused by sunlight shining through a thin layer of cloud called cirrostratus, which consists of millions of tiny ice crystals. The halo is a distant cousin to the rainbow, and The Weather Channel’s Dick Whitaker said it appeared two to three times per year.

“There is no way to judge how long the halo will last over Sydney, as it depends on the cloud cover,” he said.

The black colour of our photograph is because of the reduced exposure required for photographing the sun
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Sorry but I can't resist, Nea,


Welcome to your warming world of record warmth and to green jungles of the north

woopahhhhhhhh!





Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
the best part of having a nightmare is waking up and seeing the sunshine in your window :D

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Actually its a week from today...California should prepare themselves.


I know people who still have gallon cans of dried beans, rice, flour, powdered milk, etc. that they stockpiled for Y2K.

If you like I can put you in touch with them and they will probably cut you a deal....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This is the internet. This is where men are men, women are men, and 14 year old girls are FBI agents.


Quote of the year!!! I lol'ed hard after seeing that. Kudos
Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
I watched the Mayans last night again, "Apocalypto" movie. Great people, just great.



Good luck come December 21st my fellow man

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting trunkmonkey:



Neo, your a computer surfer!

In the last 18 months there the world has experienced 5 earthquakes that were described as shifting the earths axis! the explanations were a degree here a degree there, in the back of my mellon, I kept thinking as these events occurred, I always thought, wonder what effects these will have on the weather?
As a vast researcher as you, and I'm only in here for a short time in the morning while I wake up, could you do some surfing and see if their is a connection?

There are some kool-aid drinkers out there saying March 21, 2012 will be another event, well that is in two weeks so we'll see.


Actually its a week from today...California should prepare themselves.
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There's a war on the horizon....we'll be it and wondering how we even got into it
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting fireflymom:
That is how sick head aches develop. anon



The best cure for those kinds of headaches is through the ballot box.

Women outnumber men in the US. If women register and vote their interests they can kick these "viagra popping, closed minded, misogynistic old white guys" to the curb.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
962. MahFL
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This is the internet. This is where men are men, women are men, and 14 year old girls are FBI agents.


Ain't that the truth !
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

you know it is a good question how do you really know who is what for all you really know you could very well be talking to a computer or a pet or a female or male


This is the internet. This is where men are men, women are men, and 14 year old girls are FBI agents.
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No damage reported after quake in north Japan; 50 cm tsunami warning issued
There were no immediate reports of damage after northern Japan was hit by an earthquake which the Japan Meteorological Agency said had a preliminary magnitude of 6.8. The epicenter of the quake was in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of northern Japan, the agency said, adding that a tsunami warning for a wave with an estimated height of 50 cm had been issued.

An earthquake also rattled the Tokyo area hours after a stronger tremor caused a small tsunami on the northern Japanese coast.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said the second earthquake was magnitude 6.1. It was just off the coast of Chiba, east of Tokyo, at a rather shallow 10 kilometers (6 miles) below the sea surface.

There was no immediate report of damage or injury from the second quake. The tremor earlier Wednesday evening caused small swelling of water on the northern coast, including part of the region hit by last year's massive earthquake and tsunami.
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That is how sick head aches develop. anon
Quoting Xyrus2000:


What? Are you saying viagra popping, closed minded, misogynistic old white guys aren't the best people to be talking about women's health? Are you saying that these people do not represent America?

Oh surely you jest. I'm sure it's every woman's dream to be to be pregnant, handcuffed to a stove, and making pancakes for a plumber. :P

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Intense M6.1 in Chiba, with multiple aftershocks — Fukushima hit with M4.6 — Began with M6.8 off northeast Japan four hours ago (MAPS)

Published: March 14th, 2012 at 8:40 am ET
By ENENews

The M6.1 quake to hit Chiba was rated a 5+ intensity, two categories stronger than the M6.8 that hit an hour and 45 minutes prior. On the Japanese scale there are only three levels more intense than a 5+.

Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: March 14, 2012

List of quakes during the 4-hour period from 4:09am ET – 7:59am ET

22:04 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:59 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.7 1
22:02 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:58 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.2 1
21:45 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:40 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.1 1
21:34 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:29 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.6 1
21:32 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:27 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.7 1
21:30 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:25 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.7 1
21:23 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:16 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M3.1 1
21:16 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:05 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M6.1 5+
21:09 JST 14 Mar 2012 21:05 JST 14 Mar 2012 Chiba-ken Toho-oki M6.1 5+
20:45 JST 14 Mar 2012 20:40 JST 14 Mar 2012 Sanriku Oki M5.3 1
20:03 JST 14 Mar 2012 19:58 JST 14 Mar 2012 Sanriku Oki M5.3 2
19:55 JST 14 Mar 2012 19:49 JST 14 Mar 2012 Sanriku Oki M5.9 3
19:35 JST 14 Mar 2012 19:29 JST 14 Mar 2012 Fukushima-ken Oki M4.6 1
18:21 JST 14 Mar 2012 18:09 JST 14 Mar 2012 Sanriku Oki M6.8 4
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Tsunami warning issued after M6.8 quake hits off northeast Japan (MAP)

Published: March 14th, 2012 at 6:15 am ET
By ENENews

Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: 18:09 JST 14 Mar 2012
Date: Mar. 14, 2012

Japan issued a tsunami warning on Wednesday after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck off its northeastern coast at 6:09 p.m., warning of a wave as high as 50 centimeters for Aomori and northern Iwate prefectures.The epicenter was about 235 kilometers south of Kushiro in Hokkaido. It was a relatively shallow 26 kilometers from the ocean floor, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

The first wave was expected to hit land at 6:40 p.m., the agency said, and it issued an evacuation advisory for people living near the coastline. [...]

There were no reports of damage at nuclear facilities in the area affected by the quake, the Kyodo news agency said.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Romney kind of reminds me of Al Gore. So stiff and starched you want to send him on Survivor or maybe have his private jet crash so he gets stranded on an island and has to experience what it's like to struggle like the rest of us. And then Santorum with his outlandish ideas about whether women should use birth control or not. We settled that argument a very long time ago.
I don't get how these guys think they can represent the American people.


What? Are you saying viagra popping, closed minded, misogynistic old white guys aren't the best people to be talking about women's health? Are you saying that these people do not represent America?

Oh surely you jest. I'm sure it's every woman's dream to be to be pregnant, handcuffed to a stove, and making pancakes for a plumber. :P
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Quoting Neapolitan:
One of the largest aftershocks in months, and not too far away from the epicenter of the major shock a year ago::

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 40.899N, 144.923E
Magnitude: 6.8 Mw
Depth: 26 km
Universal Time (UTC): 14 Mar 2012 09:08:37
Time near the Epicenter: 14 Mar 2012 19:08:37
Local standard time in your area: 14 Mar 2012 04:08:37

Location with respect to nearby cities:
234 km (145 miles) S (169 degrees) of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan
292 km (181 miles) E (80 degrees) of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
347 km (216 miles) ENE (67 degrees) of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
736 km (457 miles) NE (36 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan

shake


Magnitude 6.8 earthquake strikes Japanese coast, tsunami wave hits coast.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



beat u 2 it :) we both picked 144 hrs.


I copied it from you ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Great Lakes Show Massive Ice Loss, Study Says


Most of the water in the Great Lakes hasn't frozen this year — largely because of a warmer-than-usual winter — and a new study shows the lakes have been losing ice cover for 40 years.


Lake Superior is the coldest of the Great Lakes. Yet only a thin layer of ice surrounds a cargo ship in the Thunder Bay, Ont., harbour. Past the break wall, there's no ice at all.


Thunder Bay Port Authority CEO Tim Heney, a 20 year-veteran in his industry, said the lack of ice is remarkable.


“It's the first time I ever remember the water being open right into Thunder Bay,” Heney said. “I've never seen this before."


According to a new study published in the Journal of Climate, the Great Lakes have lost more than two-thirds of their ice cover over the last four decades. Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair lost the least (50 per cent), while Lake Ontario has lost the most ice (88 per cent). That's more than even the study's lead author, ice climatologist Jia Wang, expected.

Adam Cornwell, an assistant professor of geography at Lakehead University, said Wang's findings are consistent with other climate research — all of which sends a powerful message.


"What's happening on the Great Lakes is an immediate reminder that our climate is changing and the expectations that we've had in the past aren't going to hold true for the future,” Cornwell said.


“And one of those expectations is a season of ice cover on the Great Lakes."


The study noted that ice cover varies from year to year, depending on whether cold or warm systems are passing through. But it attributes the overall ice decrease to global warming — a factor that can affect fish and marine plants.


The impact isn't just environmental, according to the study. Ships could be forced to navigate lower water levels as less ice results in more evaporation.


“We could be changing to a regime even just over the next 30 years where ice-free seasons happen more often than not,” Cornwell said.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice squall line in TX




beat u 2 it :) we both picked 144 hrs.
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Nice squall line in TX

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Why do people think POTUS can affect the price of gas? That's easy. For eight years while GWB was prez the Dems and the media drilled it into the national psyche. They blamed Bush every time the price went up. I think it was John Kerry who implored Bush to go to Saudi Arabia to beseech the the Saudis to pump more and to help get the price down to $75 a barrel.


I don't remember President Bush getting blamed for every oil price increase, but he clearly caused an increase when he decided to invade Iraq. And most of us can't explain the invasion of Iraq other than a war waged to take control of Iraqi oil away from Saddam Hussein and hand it over to people more friendly to western oil companies.

He probably was treated with more suspicion than other presidents when it came to oil issues due to his and his family's strong ties to the oil industry and Middle East rulers.

It was very strange to see an American president walking around holding hands with an oil sheikh and kissing him on the lips.

Then there was Vice President Cheney's many secret meetings with oil company representatives.

If, in fact, President Bush was generally blamed for all gas price increases he brought it on himself. He and his administration did not give most of us the impression that he was working for us but working for the oil industry.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Today has been upgraded to a Slight risk for hail and damaging wind gusts.



Tomorrow has two Slight risk areas for large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.



Friday is still a See Text, but will likely get upgraded to a Slight risk across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds.



We'll probably get a break on Saturday as the current system exits and the big one starts to enter the plains. It's not often that the SPC issues Day 5 risk areas, but here it is. The threat will probably continue eastward with Day 6 as well. Still looking like more of a Squall line than anything else.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Where's tropicalanalyst13? I brought him/her a present.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAY5. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN PROVINCES OF CANADA BY
120HR...SUNDAY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. SEVERE WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY6 PERIOD BUT THE INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE DAY5
PERIOD WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH
.

..DARROW.. 03/14/2012



The system looks better today. On the Gfs you can see the 20C line move into the plains every day.
Might see some good storms:




No system looks to make it to the SE anytime soon. They fizzle everytime. It feels like summer. Had a couple pulse storms yesterday and a couple to my south now.
Although i did see two consecutive updrafts rise and fall yesterday in the same storm. Looked like skyscrapers :)
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Where's tropicalanalyst13? I brought him/her a present.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAY5. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN PROVINCES OF CANADA BY
120HR...SUNDAY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. SEVERE WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY6 PERIOD BUT THE INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE DAY5
PERIOD WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH
.

..DARROW.. 03/14/2012

Yeah! Present!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
If this ridge where to develope over TX it would send all the severe wx up to the Upper Midwest. Which is extremely early as this pattern typically doesn't set up until May or June. So people from the Dakota's over to Michigan might be in for a long severe wx season coming up as a result of this extremely warm winter.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Why do people think POTUS can affect the price of gas? That's easy. For eight years while GWB was prez the Dems and the media drilled it into the national psyche. They blamed Bush every time the price went up. I think it was John Kerry who implored Bush to go to Saudi Arabia to beseech the the Saudis to pump more and to help get the price down to $75 a barrel.
And yet, having seen that tactic fail, and having seen the current POTUS open more areas to more drilling than ever before, many on the right--including one hasn't-got-a-chance presidential candidate--have suddenly made blaming the president for high gas prices their primary plank. (There is a bit of false equivalence, however. That is, unrest in the Middle East--you know, the heart of OPEC--is a great creator of petroleum price spikes. So starting two wars over there as GWB did certainly added to that unrest.)

Here's the "funny" part: politicians and the American people can't steadily beat the drum for war against Iran (as many are doing) while at the same time complain about gas prices being too high.
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Why do people think POTUS can affect the price of gas? That's easy. For eight years while GWB was prez the Dems and the media drilled it into the national psyche. They blamed Bush every time the price went up. I think it was John Kerry who implored Bush to go to Saudi Arabia to beseech the the Saudis to pump more and to help get the price down to $75 a barrel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning all.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
'Sup and Good morning to all. Might have some more severe storms tomorrow, Michigan looks to be hit again.



Member Since: January 30, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 224
Boy lets hope these long range models don't pan out for TX sake as the Death Ridge appears it wants to come early this year. This also maybe signaling summertime conditions here in FL and the rest of the SE US. Yikes!


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
beautiful weather here in e cen fl. its getting wanne time
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I'm not sure if this is possible. it's raining while foggy, so weird
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Quoting aspectre:
Anybody figure out why the SithEmperor is sunbathing on the middle of our Sun?
Sheesh, it ain't as if he ain't got enough of his own.


Uh, well this is kinda on the QT.

The ancient Hawaiians sent the god, Maui, out to capture the Sun and bring it back toward Earth. They needed warmth, light and all that. Maui got distracted by flying around the Moon with some girl, so he sent SithEmperor to babysit the Sun until he could get there. Maui accomplished his task - obviously. We do have warmth and light on Earth.

Some Northwest American natives believe it was Raven who flew out and captured the Sun in its beak and brought it back to light and heat the Earth... so we do have some discrepancy in the data.
:)
Hope you all have a good day.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18358
#927:
M 6.1 and M 5.7 aftershocks since. 10 cm. "tsunami" reported from the M 6.8.
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Anybody figure out why the SithEmperor is sunbathing on the middle of our Sun?
Sheesh, it ain't as if he ain't got enough of his own.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
930 trunkmonkey "...koolaid drinkers out there saying March 21, 2012 will be another event..."

Ultra-massive nicotine withdrawal tremors.
"March 21 2012 is Kick Butts Day: a day for activism when thousands of youth in every state and around the world will STAND OUT _ SPEAK UP _ and SEIZE CONTROL AGAINST BIG TOBACCO."
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Where's tropicalanalyst13? I brought him/her a present.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BY DAY5. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE SRN PROVINCES OF CANADA BY
120HR...SUNDAY. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. SEVERE WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY6 PERIOD BUT THE INCREASINGLY
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME. WILL ADDRESS THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND THE DAY5
PERIOD WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH
.

..DARROW.. 03/14/2012
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18358
Quoting Neapolitan:
One of the largest aftershocks in months, and not too far away from the epicenter of the major shock a year ago::

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 40.899N, 144.923E
Magnitude: 6.8 Mw
Depth: 26 km
Universal Time (UTC): 14 Mar 2012 09:08:37
Time near the Epicenter: 14 Mar 2012 19:08:37
Local standard time in your area: 14 Mar 2012 04:08:37

Location with respect to nearby cities:
234 km (145 miles) S (169 degrees) of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan
292 km (181 miles) E (80 degrees) of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
347 km (216 miles) ENE (67 degrees) of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
736 km (457 miles) NE (36 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan

shake


Good morning, Neo and TrunkMonkey.
Coffee? Only Seattle's Best... but I like it better than Starbuck's.

Checked both Pacific (HI) and Alaska Tsunami Centers and there are no tsunami alerts out (Add) for their areas.

Nice and warm in The Middle* today.
:)

Add: Oh, aspectre. You can have some coffee, too.
:)

*TM wublogger hurigo
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18358
My bees are a buzzing, I have to feed them, because there isn't enough flowers for them.

My daffodils and crocuses are in full bloom, if the warm weather continues, the trees will be blooming in the next two weeks.

This is 4 weeks ahead of mother nature here in Indiana!
I'm an old dude, have a great long term memory, wife says my short term memory isn't worth a damn, but I don't remember anything long term as the warm weather in the con USA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
928 Neapolitan "...low temperature anomaly map for the upper Midwest on Saturday showing thousands of square miles [more than] 30 degrees above normal..."

Hundreds of thousands: Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota cover nearly 209thousand square miles, and there are nearby regions outside of those states that are also 30plus degrees above normal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I keep posting these maps this week, but I'm astounded. Here's HAMWeather's low temperature anomaly map for the upper Midwest on Saturday showing thousands of square miles > 30 degrees above normal--and north central Wisconsin > 40 degrees above normal:

hot



Neo, your a computer surfer!

In the last 18 months there the world has experienced 5 earthquakes that were described as shifting the earths axis! the explanations were a degree here a degree there, in the back of my mellon, I kept thinking as these events occurred, I always thought, wonder what effects these will have on the weather?
As a vast researcher as you, and I'm only in here for a short time in the morning while I wake up, could you do some surfing and see if their is a connection?

There are some kool-aid drinkers out there saying March 21, 2012 will be another event, well that is in two weeks so we'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez. It's daggumed slow in here tonight.

Let's recap tonight's topics:

politics [why!]
the SAHEL and SAL [check]
bass / the sound
bass / the fish
cognitive dissonance

Obviously we have no serious wx anything to report...



Amen! brotha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, I keep posting these maps this week, but I'm astounded. Here's HAMWeather's low temperature anomaly map for the upper Midwest on Saturday showing thousands of square miles > 30 degrees above normal--and north central Wisconsin > 40 degrees above normal:

hot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the largest aftershocks in months, and not too far away from the epicenter of the major shock a year ago::

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 40.899N, 144.923E
Magnitude: 6.8 Mw
Depth: 26 km
Universal Time (UTC): 14 Mar 2012 09:08:37
Time near the Epicenter: 14 Mar 2012 19:08:37
Local standard time in your area: 14 Mar 2012 04:08:37

Location with respect to nearby cities:
234 km (145 miles) S (169 degrees) of Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan
292 km (181 miles) E (80 degrees) of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
347 km (216 miles) ENE (67 degrees) of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
736 km (457 miles) NE (36 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan

shake
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uploaded by ve3en1 on Mar 13, 2012

Sunspot 1429 produced a strong M7.9 Solar Flare during the afternoon of March 13, 2012.
A bright and full halo CME was generated, but mostly directed to the west. A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) and a Type II Sweep Frequency event resulted as well.
Category:

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543


NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 13 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1429
(N18W62) produced a long duration M7 flare at 13/1741Z associated
with Type II and IV radio sweeps (estimated velocity 1366 km/s), a
1400 sfu Tenflare, and an assymetric-halo CME (plane-of-sky velocity
1375 km/s) with a mostly northwest trajectory. The geoeffectiveness
of this CME is currently under evaluation.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare until Region
1429 rotates off the visible disk on 15 March. Day 3 (16 March)
solar activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a slight
chance for isolated moderate activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV and greater than 100 MeV protons became rapidly enhanced just
after the M7 flare with associated CME. The greater than 10 MeV
event began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 469 PFU at
13/2045Z and is decreasing. The greater than 100 MeV event also
began at 13/1810Z, reached a maximum flux of 18.9 PFU and is also
decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 and 15
March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions on day 3 (16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.


III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 70/70/20
Class X 20/20/01
Proton 99/90/80
PCAF red

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 141
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 028/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I try to stay fairly anonymous with my personal life but yep, my mother used to go on WU during Wilma, however she wasn't very interested in hurricanes, but she knew I was insane for them and given this was a paid account, she let me have it in December 2005.


Sorry. Thought you had mentioned that here before. Anyway, we were all worried for you guys then. Let's hope this year doesn't bring any worries to wubloggers.

G'Nite, everyone.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18358

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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