March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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272. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Happy Birthday!
Thanks, hey anybody notice that the Down Under will be getting two new TC's this week it looks like.
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271. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:


Happy birthday, mate!
Thanks man. Much appriciated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting j2008:
Well as we are on the subject, I am 15, as of today.

Happy Birthday!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
This is, by far the most complicated weather map i've ever seen. Are there 3 different stationary fronts in Ontario???
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Quoting j2008:
Well as we are on the subject, I am 15, as of today.


Happy birthday, mate!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting j2008:
Well as we are on the subject, I am 15, as of today.

I'm 16, but I guess that pretty much makes me a senior citizen on here!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
266. j2008
Quoting weatherh98:


14 on april 13 blah
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm 21 on April 11.
Well as we are on the subject, I am 15, as of today.
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Tor Watch 74


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 74
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73...

DISCUSSION...MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT...FOCUSING A BAND OF TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
MARGINAL...THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RATHER STRONG LOW-
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...MEAD
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
744 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 740 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES EAST OF ITHACA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MERRILL AROUND 750 PM EDT.
HEMLOCK AND NELSON AROUND 755 PM EDT.
SWAN CREEK AND GARFIELD AROUND 800 PM EDT.
SHIELDS AND FREELAND AROUND 805 PM EDT.
ZILWAUKEE AND CARROLLTON AROUND 810 PM EDT.
INDIANTOWN AROUND 815 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
ZILWAUKEE... ST. CHARLES... SAGINAW...
MERRILL... MARION SPRINGS... FREELAND...
BRIDGEPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did too.

72% Dark Energy, 23% Dark Matter. We were all wrong. :P

I wasn't that far off
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Monica was definitely as strong as if not stronger than Tip... My avatar is a microwave shot of Monica near peak intensity :) One of my favorite storms ever!

Cyclone Monica also deforrest sections of australia with it's extreme winds
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Quoting nigel20:

I got the data directly from NASA

I did too.

72% Dark Energy, 23% Dark Matter. We were all wrong. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Next week looks active Severe Weather wise as a significant shortwave moves into a very favorable Central Plains. We'll probably see multiple outbreaks across several days (doesn't necessarily mean tornado). At least, that's how it is appearing right now.

We'll see..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dark matter is 83% of the universe and dark energy is 23%

I got the data directly from NASA
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Finally out of the tornado threat here in SW MI. Feels good.
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*sigh*

It's always so annoying when a severe thunderstorm is confined to the portion of the county away from you. Upper air soundings indicate that conditions are favorable for damaging winds too, and the NWS is warning for potential 50 kt winds with this. Dammit.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

Probably around 868/869 mbar.

(Cyclone Monica is the storm we're talking about FWIW)

Monica was definitely as strong as if not stronger than Tip... My avatar is a microwave shot of Monica near peak intensity :) One of my favorite storms ever!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southwestern Ascension Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Donaldsonville...
northwestern Assumption Parish in southeast Louisiana...
southeastern Iberville Parish in southeast Louisiana...

* until 715 PM CDT

* at 614 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near Bayou Sorrel... or 11 miles
southwest of Plaquemine... and moving southeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to White
Castle... Pierre Part and Paincourtville

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds and deadly cloud to ground lightning.
People outside should move to a shelter... preferably inside a strong
building but away from windows.


Lat... Lon 3030 9140 3015 9097 2983 9113 2993 9124
2997 9126 3000 9127 3001 9124 3003 9123
3006 9127 3005 9137 3010 9139 3010 9144
3012 9147 3019 9148
time... Mot... loc 2317z 303deg 20kt 3018 9136
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting nigel20:

When you're an adult, the older you get the younger you wish you were


Pretty much.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why blah? Being an adult isn't all it's cracked up to be. Trust me.

When you're an adult, the older you get the younger you wish you were
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Quoting nigel20:

Dark energy is 70% of the universe while dark matter is 25% of the universe

Dark matter is 83% of the universe and dark energy is 23%
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...

VALID 122229Z - 130000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 73 CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.


MOST SIGNIFICANT DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
...NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING
NOSES INTO THE AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN /WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S. ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELLS COULD FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...AND RAPIDLY
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS
...WITHIN 45-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE 850 MB JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 50 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...CONTRIBUTING TO
FURTHER ENLARGEMENT OF ALREADY SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS. AND IT APPEARS THAT TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD PEAK
ACROSS THE LANSING...JACKSON AND FLINT AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z.


..KERR.. 03/12/2012
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Quoting ILwthrfan:

Whats weird is that dark matter encompasses 95% of the known universe...leaving the other 5% which we can see...

Dark energy is 70% of the universe while dark matter is 25% of the universe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


our visions of the universe are just hypothses based upon what WE no must be there... does not mean it cant be something else.

High!
Reality is a state of mind! (They used to say brought upon by the absence of drugs?)
I might refer inquisitive people to Mr. Hendricks, 3rd stone from the sun!We are on it!
We are a transient entity, fueled by carbon,invigorated by oxygen and trapped by gravity.
Oh the gift the gifty give us, to see ourselves as others, might see us?
Without us the universe is!
Without the universe, we are not!
One small aspect of our existence is our ability to perceive. One huge failing of our existence is our failing to develop perception?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


but im prolly the biggest 13 year old youll ever find haha 6 foot 2


I'm 21 and I am 5ft 7in...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7958
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN RAPIDES PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN DURING
THE PAST THREE HOURS IN THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ELIZABETH...GLENMORA AND TURKEY CREEK.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
617 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DONALDSONVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 614 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAYOU SORREL...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PLAQUEMINE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE
CASTLE...PIERRE PART AND PAINCOURTVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
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Quoting weatherh98:


14 on april 13 blah


Why blah? Being an adult isn't all it's cracked up to be. Trust me.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm 21 on April 11.


but im prolly the biggest 13 year old youll ever find haha 6 foot 2
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


869mb actually. 1 mb lower than Tip.

Thanks for the correction
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm 21 on April 11.


14 on april 13 blah
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
Well, while we are saying our ages, i am 13 and y'all are old



I'm 21 on April 11.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHERN BRANCH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED
18 MILES WEST OF UNION CITY...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF THREE
RIVERS...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
UNION CITY...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
LEONIDAS...SHERWOOD...HODUNK AND GIRARD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
707 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EDENVILLE...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF SANFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT FOREST AND CRUMP AROUND 715 PM EDT.
PINCONNING AROUND 720 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
PINCONNING... BENTLEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
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Well, while we are saying our ages, i am 13 and y'all are old

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol.

I'm not the best at Severe Weather (as you will probably see in my posts), but it'll be fun doing it, especially since I'll issue convective outlooks.


Up until a little while ago, you were a hell of a lot more knowledgeable than I am. I only started learning severe weather recently myself, and my knowledge is definitely still in its infancy.

Really though, it's not that much different from hurricane forecasting. You simply take the various atmospheric parameters, line them up, assess them, and then forecast them.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting PlazaRed:

Can you imagine how confused people would be if they could see the other 95%?
They cant even come to terms with the 5% that they have to contend with now!
I supose we'll have to leave the wider vision of the known and unknown universe to the odd itinerant gurus!


our visions of the universe are just hypothses based upon what WE no must be there... does not mean it cant be something else.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Cody, I think you need to advertise your blog on Facebook or something. Get some promotion going, man!

Lol.

I'm not the best at Severe Weather (as you will probably see in my posts), but it'll be fun doing it, especially since I'll issue convective outlooks.

Link to blog
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
Cody, I think you need to advertise your blog on Facebook or something. Get some promotion going, man!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21199
Quoting ILwthrfan:

Whats weird is that dark matter encompasses 95% of the known universe...leaving the other 5% which we can see...

Can you imagine how confused people would be if they could see the other 95%?
They cant even come to terms with the 5% that they have to contend with now!
I supose we'll have to leave the wider vision of the known and unknown universe to the odd itinerant gurus!
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Quoting drought:
I am middle aged. I am 43.




At what number would the pressure in millibars and the wind in knots match? Something to stay away from for sure!


Hmmm, not that it's particularly significant but as a matter of simply having the numbers closely match, that would be the winds in knots (near 50-100kts) circling over the polar / subpolar region at 50-100 mb geopotential heights... roughly 15-20,000 meters / 9-12 miles AGL... Bring plenty of oxygen and a warm suit as you head up, up, and away... ;)

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Quoting kellnerp:
Lake effect T-storms on the east side of Lake Michigan. Boy these things came up fast.


They are not lake effect thunderstorms. They are thunderstorms being induced by strong dynamics from a low pressure system.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7958
Quoting nigel20:

TC Monica with the suggested 879mb?


869mb actually. 1 mb lower than Tip.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well we know its at least a certain size but this changes every second light arrives to earth. Our view of the universe is expanding literally at the speed of light.

Also some of the star we are seeing are already dead, but due to the vast nature of the universe the light from such stars takesmany years to reach earth
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GLADWIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLEMAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
RHODES AROUND 720 PM EDT.

LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM AS IT CROSSES THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF GLADWIN COUNTY.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Personally, Typhoon Tips record was probably beaten in April 2006.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Personally, Typhoon Tips record was probably beaten in April 2006.

TC Monica with the suggested 879mb?
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227. wxmod
Africa dust and pollution today could be a factor in Atlantic lapse rate later this year.

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Good night folks, going to baseball now, will be back later. I have a new (but not weather related) blog up. Will be back soon, hopefully without severe storms all over.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Personally, Typhoon Tips record was probably beaten in April 2006.

I agree.

Probably around 868/869 mbar.

(Cyclone Monica is the storm we're talking about FWIW)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32689
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES FLOODED. THE
LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW 12 TO 16 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE
PARISH...SOUTHERN SAINT LANDRY PARISH AND NORTHWEST SAINT MARTIN
PARISH.

THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
AND HOMES FLOODED IN THE WARNED AREA DO NOT DRIVE INTO THESE AREAS
UNTIL AFTER THE WATER SUBSIDES.

FOR BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO...THE FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. THE
CURRENT STAGE IS 22 FEET. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE BAYOU TO CREST
BETWEEN 22 AND 23 FEET. THIS IS WOULD MAKE THIS A RECORD CREST FOR
THIS SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 21.5 SET IN MAY 2004.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARNAUDVILLE...BASILE...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...CATAHOULA...
CHURCH POINT...EUNICE...KROTZ SPRINGS...LAFAYETTE...LEONVILLE...
MAMOU...OAKDALE...OPELOUSAS...RAYNE...SCOTT...VILL E PLATTE...
ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...BAYOU CHICOT...BEAVER...
BOND...BRANCH...BROUSSARD...BUTTE LA ROSE...CANKTON...CECILIA...
CHATAIGNIER...CHICOT STATE PARK...DURALDE...DUSON AND GRAND COTEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
633 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OIL CITY...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLEMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
COLEMAN AROUND 640 PM EDT.
NORTH BRADLEY AROUND 645 PM EDT.
EDENVILLE AND SANFORD AROUND 650 PM EDT.
HOPE AND BOMBAY AROUND 655 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
SANFORD... EDENVILLE... COLEMAN...
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
636 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
CHARLOTTE... EATON RAPIDS... GRAND LEDGE...
BELLEVUE... KALAMO... BROOKFIELD...
WAVERLY... MULLIKEN... DIMONDALE...
OLIVET... VERMONTVILLE... POTTERVILLE...
SUNFIELD... DELTA MILLS... WOODBURY...
HOYTVILLE... MILLETT... LITTLE VENICE...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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