March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

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The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

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Off topic but here is a cool interactive scale from NASA
Link
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Sky pony...

...above Tenby,Pembrokeshire,Wales
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..great, now I'm blind and dumb..

: )


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Pretty strong Rotation near Flint, Michigan...

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316. Skyepony (Mod)
Bastardi was on Fox News yesterday..



BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming.

Asked about Bastardi’s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: “Utter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.” NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: “Bastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.” “He seems very confused,” said physicist Richard Muller.

Bastardi may be hoping that when delivered confidently, terms like “specific gravity” and “radiative processes” can convince Fox’s viewers that he knows what he’s talking about. But don’t be fooled; he is again garbling the very basics of climate science. Schmidt explained:

Bastardi doesn’t understand the first thing about the greenhouse effect – it has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘specific gravity’ of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas, it has to do with the fact that GHGs absorb and radiate infra-red heat and in doing so warm the surface of the Earth.

Bastardi went on to claim that “the entire globe has cooled quite a bit.” more here..
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Coronal Hole image GOES-15 SXI Level-1

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Quoting jamesrainier:

Good line of storms still going.

Just a handful of reports.
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313. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting KoritheMan:


What operation, if you don't mind my asking?


I would prefer not saying, but I honestly can't find any sources on the internet for it. From what I've learned, it is rather experimental and few people have it (not like 1-100 people in the world but maybe 1 out of 100k people in Canada). Also from what I heard, I got it only 2 years after it was permitted to be used for humans; so I'm kinda a test subject. :P It's pretty much a tube that goes inside of me and replaces a colostomy bag; it allows me to do normal people things. :P It needs to be changed annually.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
311. Skyepony (Mod)
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Quoting yqt1001:


My day pwns yours. :P


Went to bed at 1am.
Woke up at 5:30 and grumpily got ready for the trip to the airport. Arrived at the airport at 6am.
Took off for Toronto at 6:55am. Landed in Toronto at 8:30am.
Walked a kilometer or so to a hospital for an appointment at 2pm; but we arrived at 10am. :P
Got squeezed in at 10:20am to endure an operation that I've been stressing about for a few days; came out of there absolutely miserable.
Walked a few blocks (not that bad, but when you are TIRED to death and just endured an operation awake, the last thing you want to do is walk :P ) to catch a bus for 11:00am.
Arrived here where I am now at 12:30pm.
Relaxed for the afternoon :D and formed Germany in Europa Universalis 3! :D
Walked a few more blocks to have pizza at a pizzeria and then walked back after dinner.

There were a few things that happened after dinner that is sorta worth noting; but I'm too tired to really bother with them. :P Still staying up until 1am tonight! No one is taking my march break from me this easily!


What operation, if you don't mind my asking?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Quoting nigel20:

Wow! Your day was overloaded


Yeah, wasn't fun, but it is over now. :) Today is for me one of the worst days of the year (as this is annual).
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
Quoting yqt1001:


My day pwns yours. :P


Went to bed at 1am.
Woke up at 5:30 and grumpily got ready for the trip to the airport. Arrived at the airport at 6am.
Took off for Toronto at 6:55am. Landed in Toronto at 8:30am.
Walked a kilometer or so to a hospital for an appointment at 2pm; but we arrived at 10am. :P
Got squeezed in at 10:20am to endure an operation that I've been stressing about for a few days; came out of there absolutely miserable.
Walked a few blocks (not that bad, but when you are TIRED to death and just endured an operation awake, the last thing you want to do is walk :P ) to catch a bus for 11:00am.
Arrived here where I am now at 12:30pm.
Relaxed for the afternoon :D and formed Germany in Europa Universalis 3! :D
Walked a few more blocks to have pizza at a pizzeria and then walked back after dinner.

There were a few things that happened after dinner that is sorta worth noting; but I'm too tired to really bother with them. :P Still staying up until 1am tonight! No one is taking my march break from me this easily!

Wow! Your day was overloaded
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LWR MI...NERN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 73...74...

VALID 130043Z - 130215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 73...74...CONTINUES.

THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING... BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED EAST OF WW 74.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN JUST WAS NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INHIBITIVE RELATIVELY WARM
LAYERS ALOFT...AND ALLOW DISCRETE PRE-FRONTAL STORMS TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES. HOWEVER...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD STILL POSE THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS IT RAPIDLY SPREADS ACROSS THE THUMB AREA AND REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z.

ALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
STILL CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LINGER ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 03/13/2012

Seems Louisiana flooding will be the big story today.

Louisiana 1927
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Quoting SPLbeater:


playin with friends all through the neighborhood. I actually feel like a teenager now :D

Ok...having some fun and keeping active as well
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Quoting SPLbeater:


well, i had a hiarcut at 4. got out at 5...and was playing outside with 6 other kids for almost 4 solid hours:D had fun tho!!!!


My day pwns yours. :P


Went to bed at 1am.
Woke up at 5:30 and grumpily got ready for the trip to the airport. Arrived at the airport at 6am.
Took off for Toronto at 6:55am. Landed in Toronto at 8:30am.
Walked a kilometer or so to a hospital for an appointment at 2pm; but we arrived at 10am. :P
Got squeezed in at 10:20am to endure an operation that I've been stressing about for a few days; came out of there absolutely miserable.
Walked a few blocks (not that bad, but when you are TIRED to death and just endured an operation awake, the last thing you want to do is walk :P ) to catch a bus for 11:00am.
Arrived here where I am now at 12:30pm.
Relaxed for the afternoon :D and formed Germany in Europa Universalis 3! :D
Walked a few more blocks to have pizza at a pizzeria and then walked back after dinner.

There were a few things that happened after dinner that is sorta worth noting; but I'm too tired to really bother with them. :P Still staying up until 1am tonight! No one is taking my march break from me this easily!
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
More work to the blog..going to add a radar and satellite page.

Link
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Quoting nigel20:

Have you been working all day?


playin with friends all through the neighborhood. I actually feel like a teenager now :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Might hit 80 Wednesday and Thursday!
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Quoting SPLbeater:
whew...im TIRED.

Have you been working all day?
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
847 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TUSCOLA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 845 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AKRON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CASS CITY AND GAGETOWN AROUND 900 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
GAGETOWN... CASS CITY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Long day?


well, i had a hiarcut at 4. got out at 5...and was playing outside with 6 other kids for almost 4 solid hours:D had fun tho!!!!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:
whew...im TIRED.


Long day?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
whew...im TIRED.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still a serious flooding situation ongoing in Louisiana. Flood Emergency still in effect until 1130 PM CDT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES FLOODED. THE
LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW 12 TO 16 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE
PARISH...SOUTHERN SAINT LANDRY PARISH AND NORTHWEST SAINT MARTIN
PARISH.


THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
AND HOMES FLOODED IN THE WARNED AREA DO NOT DRIVE INTO THESE AREAS
UNTIL AFTER THE WATER SUBSIDES.

FOR BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO...THE FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. THE
CURRENT STAGE IS 22 FEET. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE BAYOU TO CREST
BETWEEN 22 AND 23 FEET. THIS IS WOULD MAKE THIS A RECORD CREST FOR
THIS SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 21.5 SET IN MAY 2004.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARNAUDVILLE...BASILE...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...CATAHOULA...
CHURCH POINT...EUNICE...KROTZ SPRINGS...LAFAYETTE...LEONVILLE...
MAMOU...OAKDALE...OPELOUSAS...RAYNE...SCOTT...VILL E PLATTE...
ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...BAYOU CHICOT...BEAVER...
BOND...BRANCH...BROUSSARD...BUTTE LA ROSE...CANKTON...CECILIA...
CHATAIGNIER...CHICOT STATE PARK...DURALDE...DUSON AND GRAND COTEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.


With all the rain we've seen over the last two days, I'm not surprised.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
840 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TUSCOLA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 837 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNIONVILLE TO FRANKENMUTH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
COLWOOD AROUND 850 PM EDT.
FOSTORIA AND GAGETOWN AROUND 855 PM EDT.
MAYVILLE AROUND 900 PM EDT.
SILVERWOOD AND EAST DAYTON AROUND 905 PM EDT.
KINGSTON AND DEFORD AROUND 910 PM EDT.
WILMOT AROUND 915 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
VASSAR... MILLINGTON... MAYVILLE...
KINGSTON... GAGETOWN... FAIRGROVE...
CASS CITY... CARO... AKRON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
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Still a serious flooding situation ongoing in Louisiana. Flood Emergency still in effect until 1130 PM CDT.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLOODING CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH NUMEROUS ROADS AND HOMES FLOODED. THE
LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW 12 TO 16 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTHERN LAFAYETTE
PARISH...SOUTHERN SAINT LANDRY PARISH AND NORTHWEST SAINT MARTIN
PARISH.


THIS CONTINUES TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
AND HOMES FLOODED IN THE WARNED AREA DO NOT DRIVE INTO THESE AREAS
UNTIL AFTER THE WATER SUBSIDES.

FOR BAYOU VERMILION AT CARENCRO...THE FLOOD STAGE IS 17 FEET. THE
CURRENT STAGE IS 22 FEET. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE BAYOU TO CREST
BETWEEN 22 AND 23 FEET. THIS IS WOULD MAKE THIS A RECORD CREST FOR
THIS SITE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 21.5 SET IN MAY 2004.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARNAUDVILLE...BASILE...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...CATAHOULA...
CHURCH POINT...EUNICE...KROTZ SPRINGS...LAFAYETTE...LEONVILLE...
MAMOU...OAKDALE...OPELOUSAS...RAYNE...SCOTT...VILL E PLATTE...
ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...BAYOU CHICOT...BEAVER...
BOND...BRANCH...BROUSSARD...BUTTE LA ROSE...CANKTON...CECILIA...
CHATAIGNIER...CHICOT STATE PARK...DURALDE...DUSON AND GRAND COTEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Kori are you listed under a different name?
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Anyone catch this one yet???
Bio engineering to combat climate change..

Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


PM me the link. I lost it when I got a new computer.

I'll also start forecasting there like I did during 2010.


StormW still post his updates when its important there as well yet too.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


PM me the link. I lost it when I got a new computer.

I'll also start forecasting there like I did during 2010.


OK I will email ya...i think you are still setup as an administrator yet too...but i will check...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL....you did not beat me to it tho....LOL


Darn!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes is know....i have been watching that and posted a blog last week about this upcoming Threat.....I don't post much here anymore! You can read it at my Site tho.


PM me the link. I lost it when I got a new computer.

I'll also start forecasting there like I did during 2010.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ha! I beat you to it!


LOL....you did not beat me to it tho....LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The ECMWF, which previously had a longwave trough digging as far south as Baja, has joined the party in bringing it more northward, with the base of the trough over the western United States moving eastward.


Yes i know....i have been watching that and posted a blog last week about this upcoming Threat.....I don't post much here anymore! You can read it at my Site tho.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
706 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 700 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES EAST
OF GALLIANO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


Watch that model move everything a little East over the next couple of days....Could be in the same areas again....LORD I HOPE NOT THO!


The ECMWF, which previously had a longwave trough digging as far south as Baja, has joined the party in bringing it more northward, with the base of the trough over the western United States moving eastward.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I've been watching next week. Not looking too good....thankfully the outbreak would be in the plains, where it should be.


Ha! I beat you to it!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I've been watching next week. Not looking too good....thankfully the outbreak would be in the plains, where it should be.


Watch that model move everything a little East over the next couple of days....Could be in the same areas again....LORD I HOPE NOT THO!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Without being the wish of bad news but, the GFS Models is hinting very hard at a major dip in the JET STREAM in about 8 days.......this could be as ugly as we seen the last Tornado outbreak last week!

Yeah, I've been watching next week. Not looking too good....thankfully the outbreak would be in the plains, where it should be.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31462
Quoting TampaSpin:
Without being the wish of bad news but, the GFS Models is hinting very hard at a major dip in the JET STREAM in about 8 days.......this could be as ugly as we seen the last Tornado outbreak last week!


The severe weather season isn't going to just relent, especially with Gulf SSTs so warm.

Hope for the best prepare for the worst, I guess. Rule of thumb.

I saw that earlier when I was analyzing the 300 mb GFS forecast fields. Such a jet streak would definitely herald severe weather. From the looks of it, this particular outbreak would be farther to the north, in the central or high plains.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 553 Comments: 19915
Without being the wish of bad news but, the GFS Models is hinting very hard at a major dip in the JET STREAM in about 8 days.......this could be as ugly as we seen the last Tornado outbreak last week!
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Astrophysicist Dr. Neil DeGrasse Tyson was asked in an interview with TIME magazine, "What is the most astounding fact you can share with us about the Universe?" This is his answer.


The Most Astounding Fact from Max Schlickenmeyer on Vimeo.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
757 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONSTANTINE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF SIMONTON
LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
THREE RIVERS...
CENTREVILLE...
STURGIS...
COLON...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE KLINGER
LAKE...WASEPI...NOTTAWA...FAWN RIVER...FINDLEY...BURR OAK AND
FAIRFAX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. A
TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT MON MAR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRANCH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHERN HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED
11 MILES WEST OF LITCHFIELD...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF COLDWATER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
LITCHFIELD...
JONESVILLE...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
MOSCOW...JEROME...SOMERSET CENTER AND SOMERSET.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. A
TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWEST OHIO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTHERN INDIANA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
272. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Happy Birthday!
Thanks, hey anybody notice that the Down Under will be getting two new TC's this week it looks like.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.