March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak: 10th largest in recorded history?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on March 12, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

The deadly early-season tornado outbreak of March 2 - 3 that hit Indiana, Kentucky, and surrounding states, killing 41 people, may have been the 10th largest two-day tornado outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center now lists 132 preliminary tornado reports for March 2, and 11 for March 3. It typically takes several months to finish damage surveys and verify all the tornadoes that really occur in a big tornado outbreak. Sixty-one tornadoes have been confirmed so far, according to Wikipedia's tally of the outbreak. The two-day total of 143 tornadoes from March 2 - 3 is probably an over count of about 15%, based on historical levels of over counts. This would give the March 2 - 3 outbreak around 120 tornadoes, making it the tenth largest outbreak since record keeping began in 1950. Assuming this is true, the past two tornado seasons would hold four of the top ten spots for largest tornado outbreaks in recorded history. Below are the top two-day tornado outbreaks since 1950. Several of these two-day totals were taken from outbreaks that lasted three or more days; the highest two-day period of activity was selected for this list, so that the outbreak would not be mentioned multiple times. The numbers from the 2011 outbreaks are still preliminary:

262, Apr 26 - 27, 2011
169, Apr 3 - 4, 1974
160, May 29 - 30, 2004
141, May 24 - 25, 2011
135, Jan 21 - 22, 1999
130, Apr 15 - 16, 2011
125, May 4 - 5, 2003
123, Jun 15 - 16, 1992
121, May 4 - 5, 2007
120ish, Mar 2 - 3, 2012
120, May 3 - 4, 1999


Video 1. Spectacular tornado video taken at a home in West Liberty, Kentucky outfitted with seven automatic security cameras, which captured the fury of the strong EF-3 tornado with 165 mph winds that roared overhead on March 2, 2012. The views from all the cameras are worth watching, but don't watch past 7:00, as the end of the video has three minutes of blankness at the end. According to an article at wkyt.com, the home owners, Randy and Norma Risner, took shelter in the basement, and their home survived the tornado. "You could actually feel the ground shaking and our the 11-foot basement walls were shaking, too," Norma said. The tornado destroyed their workshop (caught on camera), and another camera shows the roof of their neighbors home peel off.


Video 2. Perhaps even more impressive is video taken at a nearby pharmacy showing the West Liberty tornado destroying buildings across the street. The view from Clinic Pharmacy starts at 0:50 into this video.

The uncertain business of counting tornadoes
While there's no question that having four top-ten tornado outbreaks in just two years is highly unusual, the quality of our tornado data base is poor, and there are probably outbreaks that occurred prior to 1990 that were significantly under-counted and would have made the top ten list, had they occurred today. The number of tornadoes being reported has increased in recent decades, and this increase may be due entirely to factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, have resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.


Figure 1. Number of EF-1, EF-2, EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The total shown for 2011 is preliminary and uses unofficial numbers, but 2011 now ranks in 2nd place behind 1973. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. Data provided by Harold Brooks, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory.

If we look at changes in the strongest tornadoes--EF-1, EF-2, EF3, EF4, and EF-5 twisters, the ones most likely to have a reliable long-term detection rate, due to their destructive power--we see no sign of an increasing trend in recent decades (Figure 1), even if we include 2011. However, it is difficult to make solid conclusions on how tornadoes may be changing, since the quality of the historical tornado data set is so poor. This is largely due to the fact that we never directly measure a tornado's winds--a tornado has to run over a building before we can make an EF-scale strength estimate, based on the damage. As tornado researcher Chuck Doswell said in a 2007 paper, "I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future." Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated),and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time.


Figure 2. Thomas Hudson and the Portlight trailer in Harrisburg, Illinois.

Portlight disaster relief charity responding to the tornado disaster
The Portlight disaster relief charity has made a strong showing in tornado-devastated Harrisburg, Illinois and Henryville, Indiana. Both towns were hit by deadly EF-4 tornadoes during the February 28 - March 3 tornado outbreak. From the Portlight blog:

"Yesterday we went to Henryville, Indiana and volunteered for a few hours, mainly unloading trailers with water, canned goods, etc.

The people were in great spirit, eager to rebuild, and overall thankful that it wasn't worse than it was.

Myself, Jeremiah Moran, Blaize Edwards, and Andrew Newcomb made the 2 hour drive from Washington, Indiana.

We will be trying to get back this weekend or a couple of days next week."

An interesting sciencedaily.com article discusses how the powerful EF-4 tornado from the February 29, 2012 outbreak that devastated Harrisburg, Illinois passed through a high-density network of seismographs. "The seismograms show a strong, low-frequency pulse beginning around 4:45 a.m. on Feb. 29. Our preliminary interpretation, based on other seismic records of tornadoes, suggests that we were recording not the tornado itself, but a large atmospheric pressure transient related to the large thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes."

I'll have a new post by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

HARRISBURG IL (catfish10)
HARRISBURG IL
HARISBURG IL. (catfish10)
Golden circle building
HARISBURG IL.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 522 - 472

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

522. RitaEvac
3:26 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes they did:


I remember it well, summer 2008 was highest gas had ever been
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
521. Neapolitan
3:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Take it with a grain of salt, but Margusity is calling for a high chance of severe weather over a large part of the Great Plains next week, along with snow as far south as Southern California, and continued warmth in the East.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
520. hurricanejunky
3:16 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nea, you would know. Did gas prices break $4.00 during President Bush's administration?


Yes they did:
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
519. Charmeck
3:16 PM GMT on March 13, 2012


OK people! All of these storm center reports are simply ignoring what happened in the Charlotte/Harrisburg, NC area on the early morning of March 3rd. Folks, we had an F2 confirmed tornado pass through and while we did not have any fatalities or serious injuries, the damage is devistating.
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
518. aspectre
3:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
489 TampaSpin "Question......If the CO2 gases are so much more today than was even 20years ago, why isn't the planet as a whole greener with plant life."

1) Any given plant has a limit on the amount of CO2 that it can use based on (its genetics and) the amount of available sunlight and water (as well as soil nutrients). When a plant reaches that absorption limit, it reduces its air intake by reducing the size and/or number of stomata ("breathing tubes") in its leaves... which is good in a warming world cuz stomata reduction also reduces its transpiration rate (ie water loss through its leaves).

2) Chlorophyll and other enzymes which control plant growth work within an efficiency curve: too cold or too hot, and they don't work at all. In a warming world, there will be more sunlight hours within more days in which plant growth is slowed or halted.

3) The plants which are geneticly endowed with the highest growth rates and thus the highest CO2 absorption limits are mostly considered weeds, pest species, eg: poison ivy, kudzu, and other vines; pigweed, ragweed, hemp, etc; duckweed, hydrilla, water hyacinth, etc; and "pond scum" algae and cyano-bacteria.
Except in places where folks have "given up the battle", growth of those particular weeds is strongly discouraged through various agri/arbo/aqua-cultural practices.

4) Ever more arable land is being converted to agriculture, arboculture, and aquaculture. Whether grain/produce farm, tree farm, or fish farm, such monocultures are (often less than) half as efficient as the highly mixed plantlife found on wildlands at turning sunlight&water&CO2&nutrients into plant growth and other biomass.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
517. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on March 13, 2012



sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
516. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:59 PM GMT on March 13, 2012


snake eye
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
515. Xyrus2000
2:57 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting gordydunnot:
There just the perfect color to, and I really love them and you and Michigan and my wife. Oh God Bless America except that guy who may have been born in this country and thinks he a Christian like me. Have a nice day and remember everyone I'm just like, you except that one guy.


Are you talking about Newt Gingrich?
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
514. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
2:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
Dr. Masters I have a question/suggestion.... I was using your app and I realized that i couldn't comment on your blog, I was wondering if you already can? If you cannot, is there anyway to put them on there, because I would be able to comment on them a lot more often if it was on the app.


Well, we decided not to put the capability to make comments on there for now. I'll discuss it with our developers next month during our monthly meeting, to see if there's any plan to change that.

Jeff Masters
513. gordydunnot
2:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
There just the perfect color to, and I really love them and you and Michigan and my wife. Oh God Bless America except that guy who may have been born in this country and thinks he a Christian like me. Have a nice day and remember everyone I'm just like, you except that one guy.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
512. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
POP, goes the "Bubble"

Uploaded by mediamatters4america on Mar 5, 2012

Following GOP strategy, Fox News is again blaming the Obama Administration for rising gas prices -- a claim that has been repeatedly debunked by energy analysts. But back in the summer of 2008 when the average U.S. gasoline price hit a record high of $4.11, Fox said that "no President has the power to increase or to lower gas prices" and the only way to reduce our vulnerability to gas price spikes is to use less oil.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
511. MontanaZephyr
2:43 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Its a coronal Hole, nothing unusual..

Coronal Holes


Okay, thanks for the link. The (apparent) straight edge just seems unusual to me.

Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
510. Xyrus2000
2:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nea, you would know. Did gas prices break $4.00 during President Bush's administration?


Yes they did. In several places in.

But why on Earth do people think the POTUS has any control over gas prices? They are driven by market conditions. The POTUS can influence foreign policy which might impact prices (i.e. stop threatening Iran). The POTUS can go before congress and request lower fuel taxes (at the expense of trying to maintain our infrastructure). But the POTUS is not a dictator. He can't simply say "Verily I sayeth gas prices be lower!" and they magically lower.

And even if he gets fuel taxes lowered at the federal level, he has no control at the state level. Sure he can pressure, persuade, etc. but he can't force states to lower their fuel taxes.

This is how the free market works. Political uncertainty, rumor, speculation, oligopolies, etc. all of it affects the price you pay at the pump. Congress (and to a lesser extent, the POTUS) can make and implement policies that influence the prices, but they cannot control them. The market does that.

Any candidate or member of congress claiming that they can magically lower gas prices is either a charlatan or an idiot.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
509. ILwthrfan
2:36 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Its a coronal Hole, nothing unusual..

Coronal Holes


I can't resist....:)

Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
508. StormTracker2K
2:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Somehow, I find their the supporting evidence for their claims less than convincing. :P


Republicans have lost their minds. Definitely won't a be an elected republican president this term coming up. Sorry Folks!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
507. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
..."the tree's are the right Height"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
506. Xyrus2000
2:27 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Orcasystems:
I see a change in course coming, on GW

Republicans, climate change doubts

....
Mitt Romney, the Republican party's presidential frontrunner, has said we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet, and Rick Santorum, his closest rival, has described climate science as "political science". Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, has said "global warming is not proven".....



Somehow, I find their the supporting evidence for their claims less than convincing. :P
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
505. Neapolitan
2:24 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Air is impervious to IR? BWAHAHAHAHAHAAHA! How is this guy even a meteorologist?

I'm going to find that quote, slap it on an internet meme picture, print it up, and put it in my hallway at NASA. That should get more than a couple of laughs. :)
Here it is in context:

JB?

JB FTW!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
504. hydrus
2:23 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Floodman:
The Portlight website will be down for maintenance for the next hour; when maintenance is completed the new website will be in place. Come check us out!
Hope you are doing good Flood.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22718
503. RitaEvac
2:23 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


I would think that straight lines like that, of any size, are pretty rare to non-existent .... and that one appears to be huge.

What could possibly account for it?


It's almost alien looking
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
502. Xyrus2000
2:19 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
As mentioned already, Climate Progress yesterday had an excellent write-up about Bastardi's claim that CO2 doesn't cause warming. If you've got the time, be sure to read the comments section, particularly the part where JB responds and proceeds to digger a deeper hole for himself each time he does so, such as he when he proclaims that "air is impervious to IR".

Oh, dear me.


Air is impervious to IR? BWAHAHAHAHAHAAHA! How is this guy even a meteorologist?

I'm going to find that quote, slap it on an internet meme picture, print it up, and put it in my hallway at NASA. That should get more than a couple of laughs. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
501. Patrap
2:15 PM GMT on March 13, 2012
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


I would think that straight lines like that, of any size, are pretty rare to non-existent .... and that one appears to be huge.

What could possibly account for it?


Its a coronal Hole, nothing unusual..

Coronal Holes
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting aspectre:
Sky pony...

...above Tenby,Pembrokeshire,Wales


Oh No! It's..it's...MEGATRON!!! :D
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1656
Quoting Patrap:


SDO Imagery still shows the Large Coronal Hole




I would think that straight lines like that, of any size, are pretty rare to non-existent .... and that one appears to be huge.

What could possibly account for it?
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sometimes the better answer goes unspoken when you don't know! Just sayn!
Not sure what that means. But if one is going to ask questions in an internet forum, one should expect to have them answered. Just sayn! ;-)
Quoting percylives:
Charlottesville, Virginia

According to HAMweather during the past 2 days the US had 2 low temperature records tied or broken and 250 high temperature records tied or broken.
With the morning update, that's now 305 high temperature records and 2 lows over the past two days. Youch...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting Neapolitan:
They probably are greener in places. But in other places, all the CO2 in the world won't help a plant grow in the face of massive and increasing drought. Changing rainfall patterns--wetter in some areas, drier in others--are a very big effect of greenhouse warming, an effect that has already caused great disruption to the biosphere.


Sometimes the better answer goes unspoken when you don't know! Just sayn!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hard to see a Coronal Hole with yer eye's.

Actually its impossible.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting percylives:
The present weather conditions in southern England and in Spain makes one wonder if we're not getting set up for another 2003 in Europe.

I don't think its a question of wonder? Its a forerunner of fact!
Down the road from me is a river, The river Genal, it drains the entire north side mountains to the East of Gibraltar,an area of hundreds of square kilometers. Yesterday the river was about 3 foot wide, at this time of the year its normally a strongly flowing fast waterway.
On the Mediterranean side of the mountains non of the rivers which drain them have any water in them, I drove all along the coast last week.
In I think 1995 the situation was similar but not until mid May, the coastal towns water supplies went salty as the water table was depleted, a lot of the water is used to keep golf courses green as this brings in "tourist cash," food production is a distant second place there.
This drought might bring a lot of major problems to the country as cash will soon have to be spent to buy in food from abroad?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe there's a reason why pyramids are built around the world

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686


SDO Imagery still shows the Large Coronal Hole


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
492. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:57 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 12.9S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 215 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

The tropical low appears to be taking a slow southerly track but is expected to curve southeast towards the western Top End coast early Wednesday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the southwest coast of the Top End on Wednesday night.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including the Tiwi Islands, on Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 km/h in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 km/hr may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Wyndham, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.6S 128.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.5S 129.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.3S 132.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.4S 134.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a recent scatterometer pass, in the Timor Sea, southwest of Darwin. A mid-level center of rotation is evident from satellite animations just to the west of the low level circulation center, indicating that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective structure is improving with deep convection developing close to the low level circulation center and peripheral banding to the east, suggesting that the system is moving into an area of decreasing shear. A band of 25 to 30kt winds was evident to the north of the low's center in the 00:25UTC ASCAT pass. This vigorous monsoonal flow is expected to interact with the low tonight, possibly leading to its intensification.

Dvorak analysis yields an unrepresentative DT=3.0 based on a shear pattern, with MET=PT=2.5. FT was held to 2.5, based on the PT, due to the improving structure and central convection. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. A standard development is forecast in a favourable environment with a divergent upper pattern. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Question......If the CO2 gases are so much more today than was even 20years ago, why isn't the planet as a whole greener with plant life. Do green plants not absorb CO2 gases as their means of survival. Just something to ponder!
They probably are greener in places. But in other places, all the CO2 in the world won't help a plant grow in the face of massive and increasing drought. Changing rainfall patterns--wetter in some areas, drier in others--are a very big effect of greenhouse warming, an effect that has already caused great disruption to the biosphere.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 PM WST March 13 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (992 hPa) located at 18.5S 114.6E or 340 km northwest of Karratha and 385 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.7S 114.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.1S 114.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.9S 115.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.9S 119.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well north of the west Pilbara coast.

Dvorak DT is hovering around 3.0 with a CI of 3.0m supported by MET. ASCAT imagery from earlier in the day showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, although sea surface temperatures may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question......If the CO2 gases are so much more today than was even 20years ago, why isn't the planet as a whole greener with plant life. Do green plants not absorb CO2 gases as their means of survival. Just something to ponder!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The present weather conditions in southern England and in Spain makes one wonder if we're not getting set up for another 2003 in Europe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
476 Cotillion "Hosepipe bans are a favourite of the right wing tabloid press. No idea why."

Cuz after ya tell the hoi polloi that they can't water their lawns, wash their cars, or spray-clean their sidewalks, they start asking why the nobs are still allowed to run their fountains and water gardens while continuously refilling their private swimming pools*.
And what's the point of being privileged ifn ya can't rub the faces of your lessers into the dust?

* As a relevant aside... An American Zionist once built a villa in the OccupiedTerritories with a large swimming pool -- one that evaporated more water than the total provided to the entire neighboring Palestian town across the fence -- which he kept filled despite the fact that the villa remained unoccupied and that he had no intent of ever living in Israel, let alone near Palestinians.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860

Nice looking Cat 1 TC Lua. Might become a Cat 2 or even Cat 3 before landfall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Coronal Hole image GOES-15 SXI Level-1


This is so cool!!!!!
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
Charlottesville, Virginia

High tomorrow somewhere between 82 to 86 depending on the forecaster. June weather.

My asparagus is already up and almost ready for picking, about 3 weeks ahead of schedule.

According to HAMweather during the past 2 days the US had 2 low temperature records tied or broken and 250 high temperature records tied or broken. Let's all hope this pattern changes before July.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

I wonder what effect the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption has had on the northern hemisphere weather? Has there been any studies conducted?

I Don't know about studies but observed fact in Southern Spain is impossible to deny.
Winter 2010 was all wet, it rained for weeks on end, rivers burst their banks and vast areas were flooded. The ancient locals said it was the wettest winter since 1946.
2011 was dryier than normal but it was also warmer than normal and the first year in 20 that the flies didn't die off, not a lot of frosts.
2012! This is something else, rainfall just above zero,warm most of the time and today the weather forcaster said it the climate of May not March. To me it feels like summer has just about started and if the soil temps rise above 20/c then not much will grow anyway. I drove down through Spain 800 miles, last week and there was no snow on the mountains so from the north coast to the south, very little growing in the fields and vast areas dry as a bone.
A lot of the rivers were dried up already so they cant be used for irrigation, or for putting fires out so they will burn out of control.
I just think that this is not a result of volcanic activity; its the result of 400 PPM of CO2.
we are getting into the ocean where we will see the tip of the "melting" iceberg.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I did hear of a study of the effects from the volcano halting all the jet traffic. It was pretty amazing. I remember quotes like "the first carbon neutral volcano." The only links I see right off are from the Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2010/apr/19/i celand-volcano-ash-planes-europe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice website for Port.

If you start the sentence with "I don't have any proof of this but...", please give in to your better judgment and just erase the whole sentence until you find some kind of support.

If CO2 really mixed that poorly, it would sink to the bottom of the atmosphere and choke us all to death. It is criminal that his opinions are fed to the public as credible or competing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

I wonder what effect the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption has had on the northern hemisphere weather? Has there been any studies conducted?


It probably did, but only something minute given that the eruption was only a 4 - pretty regular occurrence on the geological state of things. It's probably fed back out by now and with the similar scale eruption of Grimsvotn last year, it'd be hard to disassociate the effects from each separately by now. Only a guess, though!

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:
Hosepipe bans are a favourite of the right wing tabloid press. No idea why. 'Can't wash your car with a hosepipe!? OH, the humanity!'

The south east not having enough rain is hardly new, though. The problem is just too lack of preparedness for when it gets a bit more extreme. Apart from the stereotype of Britain being constantly drenched from rain, London's the driest part of it. London receives half of the rainfall NYC does. It's only a bit higher than Madrid, which is not far off semi-arid.

Our climate seems to be all over the place at the moment, but looking through the data, it's always been a bit like that. Most of it is caused from the really low rainfall rates in Feb to May (so far in the early days of spring it's been a little wetter than the last two, but not by a lot at all) before the usual summer deluge of late (the average has actually picked up there). Autumn's a bit up and down and winter's average has dropped a bit.

The north west of the UK still gets more than enough rain, it just means spreading it out a bit better.

I wonder what effect the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption has had on the northern hemisphere weather? Has there been any studies conducted?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
464 MahFL "Oh geeze, sounds like he's off his meds, poor thing."

Not too little but rather too much. You did see Bastardi's bodybuilder pose, didn't you?
No body gets that cut by exercize alone.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting aspectre:
457 AussieStorm "Drought Police. . . not just a hosepipe ban, but 1,000pound fines for ELEVEN offenses on water use. Water bosses in the South and East issue checklist of restrictions for 20m people."

Most tellingly in regard to how seriously the government takes the issue:
"Water company infrastructure across England and Wales leaked 3.4billion litres a day in 2010/11: a third of the UK's usage."
Meanwhile it's spending a minimum of 17billion pounds (~$27billion) on staging the Olympics...which the Brits did not want by a nearly 2to1 margin.

At least here on the driest continent on earth. We do monthly checks on all overland piping that runs from the dams to the water storage areas. They even turned the $2bil desal plant down to it's minimum after Sydney's main dam reached 100% and overflowed. Even when there is a below ground leak that shows its self on the surface, it's fixed within 24hrs of the water board has been notified.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hosepipe bans are a favourite of the right wing tabloid press. No idea why. 'Can't wash your car with a hosepipe!? OH, the humanity!'

The south east not having enough rain is hardly new, though. The problem is just too lack of preparedness for when it gets a bit more extreme. Apart from the stereotype of Britain being constantly drenched from rain, London's the driest part of it. London receives half of the rainfall NYC does. It's only a bit higher than Madrid, which is not far off semi-arid.

Our climate seems to be all over the place at the moment, but looking through the data, it's always been a bit like that. Most of it is caused from the really low rainfall rates in Feb to May (so far in the early days of spring it's been a little wetter than the last two, but not by a lot at all) before the usual summer deluge of late (the average has actually picked up there). Autumn's a bit up and down and winter's average has dropped a bit.

The north west of the UK still gets more than enough rain, it just means spreading it out a bit better.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Neapolitan:
I looked at it this morning. Very nice! Professional layout, attractive design, and the donation button/information exactly where it needs to be. I see just a few minor glitches, but other than those, very well done.


Mucho thankso!!!! Would you be so kind, sir, as to send me a message with your glitchy observations?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Check out our spiffy new website...the result of much hard work by our friend FloodmanLink
I looked at it this morning. Very nice! Professional layout, attractive design, and the donation button/information exactly where it needs to be. I see just a few minor glitches, but other than those, very well done.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
I was recently talking to a Water Board official in the north of England and he said the situation is worse than the public are being told or led to belive.
High visibility reservoirs are not being used for supply and some are being topped up from others to keep public awareness at a minimum!
Although I have no proof of this, it may tie in with not alarming people with the Olympic thing coming up. Almost everybody I talked to in the UK seem to have zero or less interest in the Olympics and regard them as a London event, not a British event!
Water use in the UK may have to be rationed if drier than historical years become the norm, although certain areas of the North of England seem to have abundant water, it flows quickly to the sea in relatively short rivers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out our spiffy new website...the result of much hard work by our friend FloodmanLink
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 522 - 472

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
46 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron