Tornado, hail, and torrential rains hammer Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2012

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A waterspout made landfall on the Hawaiian island of Oahu Friday morning on the east shore town, becoming a rare Hawaiian tornado as it moved through the towns of Lanikai and Kailua. The twister, rated an EF-0 with winds of 60 - 70 mph, tore holes in roofs and downed trees along a 1 1/2 mile long, 20-yard wide path of damage. No injuries were reported. The same storm also brought golf ball sized hail raining down for about 45 minutes on Oahu. The islands have seen intense rains over the past week, thanks to a 1040 mb blocking high pressure system near 40°N, to the NNW of the island that forced a companion cutoff low near 25°N 165°W to stay put, bringing a series of heavy storms to the islands. Rainfall amounts over the past week have exceeded three feet in some locations. The resulting flooding forced the governor on Wednesday to declare two islands, Oahu and Kauai, disaster areas. The latest forecasts for Kauai and Oahu call for sporadic rains to continue over the weekend, followed by a drying trend during the coming week.


Video 1. On March 5, 2012, flooding rains of 3" per hour caused this creek to overflow the Loop Road on Kauai and wash away a pickup truck that tried to cross. The occupants evacuated safely.

Here are some select rainfall amounts over the past week, from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1155 AM HST FRI MAR 9 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SLAM HAWAII IN THE PAST WEEK...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO MOST ISLANDS THE PAST WEEK...AS IT INTERACTED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE FOLLOWING REPRESENTS 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS...FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH
2 THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH 9.

KAUAI
HANALEI 45.97
WAINIHA POWER HOUSE 43.84
KAPAHI 32.66
MOUNT WAIALEALE RAINGAGE 31.32
LIHUE AIRPORT 13.59

OAHU
OAHU FOREST NWR 39.65
MOANALUA - USGS - USGS 36.42
PUNALUU STREAM - USGS 31.46
WILSON TUNNEL 25.05
LULUKU 22.25
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER 20.47
HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.54

MOLOKAI
MOLOKAI AIRPORT 2.74

MAUI
PUU KUKUI - USGS 16.70
KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.34

HAWAII
HILO AIRPORT 5.97


Video 2. Damage from the March 9, 2012 tornado on Oahu.

Hawaii's tornado history
Tornadoes are rare in Hawaii. According to the Tornado History Project, only 39 tornadoes have hit the state since 1950, an average of one tornado every 1.5 years. The strongest tornadoes to hit the state occurred in 1982, when a series of three F-2 twisters struck Oahu in February and March. Those months are the most frequent months for tornadoes, with 44% of the total. No one has ever been killed in a Hawaiian tornado, but six people have been injured.

Jeff Masters

Hawaii Hail (IslandStyle15)
Rare Hawaii hailstorm to be remembered
Hawaii Hail
Not A good day in Paradise (xJrhouckx)
Hawaii has had ping pong ball size hail and major flooding this week.
Not A good day in Paradise
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua (Uwekalani)
When the heavens weep, the earth lives. Notice the color of the center falls. Taken from below the Pali Lookout. Many drivers pulled into the overlook to admire these amazing waterfalls.
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua

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Quoting nigel20:


2012 is running way above the average for this time of the year
and continue into spring and early summer
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Quoting allancalderini:
Two cyclones make landfall in Maryland does anyone know which cyclones were? I think one is tropical storm Bret but I may be incorrect.
I think Anges and Hazel??
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If (Big if) ENSO ends up to be Neutral by Summer and Fall,here is a graphic that shows how many landfalls have occured in the U.S from 1980 thru 2009.



Landfalls in the U.S when El Nino was around from 1980 thru 2009.

Two cyclones make landfall in Maryland does anyone know which cyclones were? I think one is tropical storm Bret but I may be incorrect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Here's a little trivia question.

What's cold all year around and is out of this world!!


Any and every politician currently sitting on the United States Congress?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Quoting AussieStorm:

My Wife. lol

l
o
l
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting washingtonian115:
Here's a little trivia question.

What's cold all year around and is out of this world!!


Pluto.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
[Censored]....you got it.


lol, ask a harder one next time :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting washingtonian115:
Here's a little trivia question.

What's cold all year around and is out of this world!!

My Wife. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:


Space
Damn....you got it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Good night guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting washingtonian115:
Here's a little trivia question.

What's cold all year around and is out of this world!!


Space
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have been mentioning the possibility existing by the GFS that a sub-tropical cyclone might attempt to develop around this time frame and sure enough, check this out.


What is interesting is that the ECMWF has this system deepening to a 1002 mb low in 48 hours.
Link


NOGAPS 18z run has it at 1008mb and 40kt windspeeds..:D

Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Here's a little trivia question.

What's cold all year around and is out of this world!!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Already did this... it's already 10:40 at my house... lol I'm on Central time!

EDIT: No, I'm just confused..... if this were October, I'd be on Central time... actually, I'm on Atlantic time... Same as the E. Caribbean... which is actuall quite nice at times for listening to radio broadcasts.

LOL
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GFS diagram says asymmetric cold core, so I do not think it's a feature that might develop. Still, it's neat to see something like this in March.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have been mentioning the possibility existing by the GFS that a sub-tropical cyclone might attempt to develop around this time frame and sure enough, check this out.


What is interesting is that the ECMWF has this system deepening to a 1002 mb low in 48 hours.
Link

Still have my doubts but I guess I'll start monitoring it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
Satellite loop..
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Gee wiz...my favorite aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise(CVN-65) is being decommisioned after its last voyage. :(

50 years in service...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
I have been mentioning the possibility existing by the GFS that a sub-tropical cyclone might attempt to develop around this time frame and sure enough, check this out.


What is interesting is that the ECMWF has this system deepening to a 1002 mb low in 48 hours.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Well, I wish you'd got more rain today. Glad there has been good raining falling over parts of Texas. Been steady rain in central OK since mid-afternoon and looks like more will make it across Red River tonight.

Our highs don't look quite like yours yet.
:)



Glad y'all are getting some rain. I'm getting used to the high temps around here. Every since moving here I've noticed how the trees can be bare one day then BAM! they're all in leaf the next. That finally happened here about 3 days ago. I was beginning to wonder if they would after reading on here how everything was blooming in other places. But I think they were waiting for some sunshine which we finally got...for a day anyway. :)
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I got bored, so....

Storm Prediction Center tornado reports through March 09 for 2012-2005:



Storm Prediction Center tornado reports yearly for 2011-2004:



Confirmed tornadoes yearly for 2011-2004:



Click to enlarge all...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
First off, my little corner of SE TX got maybe 5 minutes of rain all together. A slight miscalculation in the forecast. Lol. Ah well places to my west need the rain more than we do. And secondly, in "Texas hot" fashion, we have skipped right over spring and are entering summer. Gotta love it. :)

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT A BIT DESPITE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS BY VIRTUE OF QUASI-ZONAL WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A NICE WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

NO BIG CHANGES TO POPS OR WX IN THE EXTENDED AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS REASONABLE IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.


Well, I wish you'd got more rain today. Glad there has been good raining falling over parts of Texas. Been steady rain in central OK since mid-afternoon and looks like more will make it across Red River tonight.

Our highs don't look quite like yours yet.
:)

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18382

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope not either, but unfortunately, we're not off to a good start. It's already turning out to be a record-breaking year with 304 tornado reports.

For comparison, these are the reported totals through March 09...

2011: 52 (Year:1897)
2010: 52 (Year:1525)
2009: 86 (Year:1304)
2008: 429 (Year:2194)
2007: 186 (Year:1276)
2006: 65 (Year:1296)
2005: 51 (Year:1216)
Average: 141 (Year:1530)

2012 is running way above the average for this time of the year
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting PlazaRed:
So now according to this article; they are not only stating that the ice has largely gone but also that there might now be increased evaporation from the great lakes as a result of it.
What with no snow or rain are they heading for as US version of the Aral Sea?
Link to copy and paste:-

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking /chi-great-lakes-ice-weather-climate-change,0,2259 584.story


Here is the link, PlazaRed:

Report: Great Lakes ice down 71 percent since 1973
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Quoting nigel20:

I hope that this tornado season will not be bad as well. Last year was so bad it was almost unbelievable

I hope not either, but unfortunately, we're not off to a good start. It's already turning out to be a record-breaking year with 304 tornado reports.

For comparison, these are the reported totals through March 09...

2011: 52 (Year:1897)
2010: 52 (Year:1525)
2009: 86 (Year:1304)
2008: 429 (Year:2194)
2007: 186 (Year:1276)
2006: 65 (Year:1296)
2005: 51 (Year:1216)
Average: 141 (Year:1530)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
First off, my little corner of SE TX got maybe 5 minutes of rain all together. A slight miscalculation in the forecast. Lol. Ah well places to my west need the rain more than we do. And secondly, in "Texas hot" fashion, we have skipped right over spring and are entering summer. Gotta love it. :)

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT A BIT DESPITE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS BY VIRTUE OF QUASI-ZONAL WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A NICE WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

NO BIG CHANGES TO POPS OR WX IN THE EXTENDED AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS REASONABLE IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't call it indirect. Increased water vapor came from an above average Gulf of Mexico, a big factor to last year's outbreak. That, combined with a screaming jet stream. We have both of those this year, let us just hope all other conditions do not come together like they did last year.

March 9, 2012:



March 10, 2011:


I hope that this tornado season will not be bad as well. Last year was so bad it was almost unbelievable
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting nigel20:

I watched a documentary on nat geo after the 2011 tonado outbreaks and they were that the increased WV in the atmosphere may be having an indirect impact on tornadoes, what do you think?

I wouldn't call it indirect. Increased water vapor came from an above average Gulf of Mexico, a big factor to last year's outbreak. That, combined with a screaming jet stream. We have both of those this year, let us just hope all other conditions do not come together like they did last year.

March 9, 2012:



March 10, 2011:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If somebody is bored, here's a great movie to waste 43 minutes of your time with. It concerns the April 27 2011 outbreak (Super outbreak)


I watched a documentary on nat geo after the 2011 tonado outbreaks and they were saying that the increase in WV in the atmosphere may be having an indirect impact on tornadoes, what do you think?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting SPLbeater:


i played a lil bit...worked some...played a lil bit...then worked some more. then went out 2 eat, then over to grandparents house, and did more work there. im TIRED.

You had a busy day
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
If somebody is bored, here's a great movie to waste 43 minutes of your time with. It concerns the April 27 2011 outbreak (Super outbreak)

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
Hilarious letter! And glad to see Texas getting rain too.
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Quoting nigel20:

I was also missing most of the day, but I don't think I missed much


i played a lil bit...worked some...played a lil bit...then worked some more. then went out 2 eat, then over to grandparents house, and did more work there. im TIRED.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting JeffMasters:
The most insane letter ever written by a child to a TV weatherman

From austin360.com:

TV weathermen get lots of feedback from viewers — some positive, some negative.

It’s not often, though, that they get a letter like the one KVUE morning and midday meteorologist Albert Ramon recently received.

After a visit to a local school, a student named Flint sent Ramon a handwritten message that’s so over the top it has gone viral on the Web.

A sampling: “Some day when I become supreme Ultra-Lord of the universe I will not make you a slave, you will live in my 200 story castle where unicorn servants will feed you doughnuts off their horns.”

And then there’s this: “Thank you again for teaching us about meteoroligy, you’re more awesome than a monkey wearing a tuxedo made out of bacon riding a cyborg unicorn with a lightsaber for the horn on the tip of a space shuttle closing in on Mars while ingulfed in flames.”

Check out the letter here.

Jeff Masters

That kid would make an epic Ultra-Lord.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
have i missed anything, aint been round much today

I was also missing most of the day, but I don't think I missed much
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Quoting nigel20:

The cold air would more than likely be only temporary

If it even comes at all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31535
Quoting nigel20:

The cold air would more than likely be only temporary

Why do you think that?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
While the next 2 weeks will be dominated by wamrth for many, the cold air is definitely on a mission to come back... Notice how it eats away at that big area of warmth between the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks





The cold air would more than likely be only temporary
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting SPLbeater:
have i missed anything, aint been round much today

You may have missed the most quiet day in blog history.
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have i missed anything, aint been round much today
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
Good night guys
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7877
had to be those kona or maybe west winds in kauai noticed the west side of the island got hit the worst
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So now according to this article; they are not only stating that the ice has largely gone but also that there might now be increased evaporation from the great lakes as a result of it.
What with no snow or rain are they heading for as US version of the Aral Sea?
Link to copy and paste:-

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking /chi-great-lakes-ice-weather-climate-change,0,2259 584.story
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
If (Big if) ENSO ends up to be Neutral by Summer and Fall,here is a graphic that shows how many landfalls have occured in the U.S from 1980 thru 2009.



Landfalls in the U.S when El Nino was around from 1980 thru 2009.



I don't like that big 13...
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Off to take a test tomorrow. Hope i dont miss the storms. This system does not overly impress me though..

nite all.
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Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 44
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 09 2209 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 11
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 95
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 10 2200 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G2 (Moderate) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2012 Mar 12
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washinton state.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
63. Skyepony (Mod)
That letter is very Napoleon Dynamite.

Local news was talking about a low forming off east FL. Not seeing it on NWS. Looked more likely earlier on radar. Maybe the gradient setting up disrupted it.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37430

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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