Tornado, hail, and torrential rains hammer Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:50 PM GMT on March 10, 2012

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A waterspout made landfall on the Hawaiian island of Oahu Friday morning on the east shore town, becoming a rare Hawaiian tornado as it moved through the towns of Lanikai and Kailua. The twister, rated an EF-0 with winds of 60 - 70 mph, tore holes in roofs and downed trees along a 1 1/2 mile long, 20-yard wide path of damage. No injuries were reported. The same storm also brought golf ball sized hail raining down for about 45 minutes on Oahu. The islands have seen intense rains over the past week, thanks to a 1040 mb blocking high pressure system near 40°N, to the NNW of the island that forced a companion cutoff low near 25°N 165°W to stay put, bringing a series of heavy storms to the islands. Rainfall amounts over the past week have exceeded three feet in some locations. The resulting flooding forced the governor on Wednesday to declare two islands, Oahu and Kauai, disaster areas. The latest forecasts for Kauai and Oahu call for sporadic rains to continue over the weekend, followed by a drying trend during the coming week.


Video 1. On March 5, 2012, flooding rains of 3" per hour caused this creek to overflow the Loop Road on Kauai and wash away a pickup truck that tried to cross. The occupants evacuated safely.

Here are some select rainfall amounts over the past week, from the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1155 AM HST FRI MAR 9 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS SLAM HAWAII IN THE PAST WEEK...

A SLOW MOVING FRONT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO MOST ISLANDS THE PAST WEEK...AS IT INTERACTED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. THE FOLLOWING REPRESENTS 7-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS...FROM 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH
2 THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY MARCH 9.

KAUAI
HANALEI 45.97
WAINIHA POWER HOUSE 43.84
KAPAHI 32.66
MOUNT WAIALEALE RAINGAGE 31.32
LIHUE AIRPORT 13.59

OAHU
OAHU FOREST NWR 39.65
MOANALUA - USGS - USGS 36.42
PUNALUU STREAM - USGS 31.46
WILSON TUNNEL 25.05
LULUKU 22.25
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER 20.47
HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.54

MOLOKAI
MOLOKAI AIRPORT 2.74

MAUI
PUU KUKUI - USGS 16.70
KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.34

HAWAII
HILO AIRPORT 5.97


Video 2. Damage from the March 9, 2012 tornado on Oahu.

Hawaii's tornado history
Tornadoes are rare in Hawaii. According to the Tornado History Project, only 39 tornadoes have hit the state since 1950, an average of one tornado every 1.5 years. The strongest tornadoes to hit the state occurred in 1982, when a series of three F-2 twisters struck Oahu in February and March. Those months are the most frequent months for tornadoes, with 44% of the total. No one has ever been killed in a Hawaiian tornado, but six people have been injured.

Jeff Masters

Hawaii Hail (IslandStyle15)
Rare Hawaii hailstorm to be remembered
Hawaii Hail
Not A good day in Paradise (xJrhouckx)
Hawaii has had ping pong ball size hail and major flooding this week.
Not A good day in Paradise
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua (Uwekalani)
When the heavens weep, the earth lives. Notice the color of the center falls. Taken from below the Pali Lookout. Many drivers pulled into the overlook to admire these amazing waterfalls.
Uwe ka lani, ola ka honua

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213. GeorgiaStormz
7:20 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
TORNADO WARNING
TXC403-405-419-112000-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0005.120311T1912Z-120311T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST NORTHEAST OF
MACUNE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF SAN AUGUSTINE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
AUGUSTINE...BLAND LAKE...NEUVILLE...ROSEVINE...GENEVA AND
PATROON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 9420 3165 9432 3180 9385 3164 9382
3162 9382 3160 9384 3157 9382 3155 9382
3152 9377 3141 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 244DEG 25KT 3146 9411

$$




That day 2 convective outlookis ridiculous. Michigan in March, and im looking to get summer type diurnal thunderstorms.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
212. TropicalAnalystwx13
7:20 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
212 PM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST NORTHEAST OF
MACUNE...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF SAN AUGUSTINE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAN
AUGUSTINE...BLAND LAKE...NEUVILLE...ROSEVINE...GENEVA AND
PATROON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.



LAT...LON 3130 9420 3165 9432 3180 9385 3164 9382
3162 9382 3160 9384 3157 9382 3155 9382
3152 9377 3141 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 244DEG 25KT 3146 9411
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
211. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:18 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JONI (13-20112012)
22:00 PM RET March 11 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Joni (992 hPa) located at 25.2S 80.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle, and up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 300 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 27.7S 81.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 29.7S 81.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 30.9S 82.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 33.0S 84.1E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
======================

Koji-Joni clearly undergoes the northwesterly strengthening vertical wind shear ahead an upper tropospheric trough, with convection far from the center in the southeastern semi-circle, and despite a burst of convection depicted on the last animated infrared pictures.

Within the next 24 hours, Koji-Joni should keep on tracking south southeastward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge situated in its east. From tau 24-72 hours, the system should slow down as high pressures should rebuilt temporarily in its south.

On this track, degradation of the environmental conditions will go on, with strong northwesterly vertical wind-shear and decreasing sea surface temperature (under 25C). So, Koji-Joni is expected to weaken rather rapidly. After 48 hours, system should begin to fill up within the mid-latitudes.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 24-36 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
210. BtnTx
7:08 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
About 3 inches of rain at my house just north of Baytown in the last 24 hours
Member Since: October 12, 2001 Posts: 20 Comments: 891
209. BobWallace
7:07 PM GMT on March 11, 2012

The Greenland ice sheet is likely to be more vulnerable to global warming than previously thought. The temperature threshold for melting the ice sheet completely is in the range of 0.8 to 3.2 degrees Celsius global warming, with a best estimate of 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, shows a new study by scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Today, already 0.8 degrees global warming has been observed. Substantial melting of land ice could contribute to long-term sea-level rise of several meters and therefore it potentially affects the lives of many millions of people.

The time it takes before most of the ice in Greenland is lost strongly depends on the level of warming. "The more we exceed the threshold, the faster it melts," says Alexander Robinson, lead-author of the study now published in Nature Climate Change. In a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions, in the long run humanity might be aiming at 8 degrees Celsius of global warming. This would result in one fifth of the ice sheet melting within 500 years and a complete loss in 2000 years, according to the study."

http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-03-greenland-ice -sheet-degrees-global.html


So in a few hundred years people might be spending their vacations visiting the underwater ruins of Miami, New York, London, and so many other coastal cities.

Great mess we're making for ourselves and those who follow us, eh?

Especially when fixing the problem would make driving cheaper and electricity cheaper....


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208. Patrap
7:05 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Never before seen Anomaly on the Sun...a filament eruption with a Black Long Spiral anomaly.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
207. Tropicsweatherpr
6:37 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
Sahara dust, mid Atlantic. MODIS today.



The West African big drought continues on full swing meaning if it stays, less train of Tropical Waves will emerge into the Tropical Atlantic.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14317
206. beell
6:26 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is in 240 hours (the big event I've been talking about). It's been pushed back some in time, but for anybody that knows how to read a hodo, this literally spells doom.



(From 0Z GFS)


Actually, it literally spells "hodo". But one could make an anagram that spells "dooh"-and that's close...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
205. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:20 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
well the buildings heating system which is run by a small computer has just gone into WWSM (warm weather shutdown mode)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
204. Chicklit
6:19 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Congrats TampaSpin! A proud father and beautiful daughter on her wedding day. So nice!

...another record broken here yesterday:
Record Report
Statement as of 1:45 am EST on March 11, 2012

... Record warm low temperature set at Daytona Beach March 10th...

The low temperature of 66 degrees on Saturday March 10th at Daytona Beach broke the record warm low of 65 degrees last observed in 1967.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
203. DavidHOUTX
6:16 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
I am in Houston and it has been coming down pretty good for a few hours. It will taper off to light rain then pick up to moderate rain. Looks like we will be in the clear in the next few hours
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
202. MAweatherboy1
6:12 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
:D It is such a beautiful day today...Anyone else agree?

Strongly agree SPL... Gorgeous day up here!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
201. SPLbeater
6:09 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Quoting nofailsafe:


It's pouring buckets here. I think we'll be set for a few more weeks.


u must be in the south, i assume?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Quoting SPLbeater:
:D It is such a beautiful day today...Anyone else agree?


It's pouring buckets here. I think we'll be set for a few more weeks.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Quoting Jedkins01:




Those rainfall facts are amazing, it sounds like I should go live in one of those really wet areas, I love Climates that receive a lot of heavy rain!
Then you might want to consider relocating to Reunion Island. Certain locations have received 73.62" in 24 hours (the world record), 183.19" in one week (also a record), and 239.45" in two weeks. Wet enough for you?

Link
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
:D It is such a beautiful day today...Anyone else agree?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Hey all..
Nice morning out here.. waiting for the moisture to move in later.. Have a great Sunday!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
The next ten days could be very radical for the Gulf of Mexico as most places along the Gulf Coast are to experience temperature at around 10 degree above normal.  Upper 70's - Mid 80's  Gulf water temps will continue to rise higher than normal levels for March.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
805 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012
BY TUESDAY...DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS
AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

This extra heat will help to continue to accelerate Gulf temps at above average rates for this time of year.  We may entering an El' Nino by this fall and that combined with conditions off the coast of Africa, with their drought and weak MDR, we may have conditions favored for lower number of Cape Verde season.  The drawback is storms will form much further west, may be fewer in number, but the number of storms that could threaten the U.S. and Caribbean this year may be above average.


Then there's the Gulf of Mexico which is running away from last year's above normal pace that it set.  If anything even gets a chance to get organized down there once the season commences, it could be thriving in record water temps down there this summer unless something changes in the not to distant future..

Mar 10th, of 2012



Mar 10th, 2011



Even though most of the MDR is below average in water temperatures around Africa and even some parts still in the Caribbean, notice the much warmer waters along the East Coast.  We could also see the 80 degree line MUCH farther north this season along the east coast. 
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
138 CanesfanatUT "I'll ask my question from the next to last post of the prior blog.
Thought I read that the Sahel region of Africa was experiencing drought currently.
"

You remembered correctly: Call for urgent action to prevent humanitarian emergency
Levels of malnutrition in areas of Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and northern Senegal are becoming dangerously high...hovering between a rate of 10% and 15%. Some areas have exceeded 15%, which is considered the emergency threshold by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification.
Among the indicators used to determine famine conditions are when acute malnutrition rates exceed 30% and when recorded deaths [from starvation alone] are more than two per 10,000 people a day.

...Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger have already declared emergencies and called for international assistance. ...more than 13 million people are at risk of hunger in the Sahel, with more than 10 million now considered food-insecure. More than 1 million children are at risk of severe malnutrition.
The situation in the region is being blamed on a mix of drought, high food prices and conflict.

"Does that not lead to a suppressed Cape Verde season??"

That was the conventional wisdom: ie apparently the correlation was high enough that hurricane pre-season forecasters took the SaharanAirLayer into account when making their hurricane predictions.
HOWEVER Dr.Gray, highly respected senior member of the Klotzbach&Gray tropical weather team, noticed sometime around 5years*ago that SAL conditions lost any useful correlation with the Atlantic hurricane season circa ?1996? and decided to drop the SAL when modeling upcoming hurricane seasons.
And near as I can tell (from the lack of mention), other professional season forecasters have done the same.

* Not certain of the dates, but I believe Dr.Masters discussed it in one of his earlier WeatherUnderground blogs.


Thank you very much for that info. Great post.

I will see if I can find the good Doc's blog on that subject.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Statement as of 2:45 am HST on March 10, 2012

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Lihue hi...

a record rainfall of 3.63 inch(es) was set at Lihue hi yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 3.46 set in 1950.

One of several recent daily records at Lihue - on the not especially rainy side of Kaua'i. Hawaii Record Event Reports. Kahului, also mentioned, is not on a rainiest side of Maui. Well, that sent me off searching and here's what I found:

At Mt. Waialeale, on Kauai, the annual average reaches the extraordinary total of 486 inches - over 40 feet. This is the highest recorded annual average in the world.
~Climate of Hawaii from the Western Regional Climate Center.

That web page is more like a book (lol) so I have not read it, the whole page, thoroughly. Here's an excerpt from the section on "Rainfall Intensities."

...Extreme rainfall intensities are high in Hawaii. To take the most extreme instance of record, during the storm of January 24-25, 1956, over 38 inches of rain fell at the Plantation Office, Kilauea Sugar Plantation, Kauai, within a 24-hour period, out of a storm total of 43.5 inches. During the same storm six inches of rain fell during a single 30-minute period and about 12 inches fell in one hour. The 38-inch value for 24- hours is conservatively low, because the gage was already overflowing when it was emptied for the first time. The six-inch value is correct within one or two tenths of an inch; the 12-inch value for one hour is an estimate only - again because of overflow - and may be in error by as much as an inch.

Rainfall intensities and totals as high as the extraordinary values just cited appear to have occurred when a current or moist, unstable air, converges as it moves up a narrowing valley, and at the same time is forced to rise abruptly over steep mountains. Such special topographic circumstances are not essential to the occurrences of torrential rains. In November 1931 Moanalua, Ohau received 15.2 inches of rain within three hours; Hana, Maui has had as much as 28 inches of rain in 24 hours; Opaeula, Oahu, 26 inches; and Hilo 19 inches, even though none of these are favorably situated with references to topographic surroundings conducive to the occurrence of very high rainfall intensities. In fact, the most copious rains in Hawaii frequently do not occur in localities having the greatest average rainfall; nor is it uncommon during such storms for relatively dry areas to receive within a single day, or even a few hours, totals approaching their mean annual rainfall.




Those rainfall facts are amazing, it sounds like I should go live in one of those really wet areas, I love Climates that receive a lot of heavy rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
191. wxmod
Sahara dust, mid Atlantic. MODIS today.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1764
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Sunday 11 March 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.26 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 56.7°F
Dewpoint: 31.3°F
Humidity: 38 %
Wind: WSW 16 gust 23 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Slight risk issued for Michigan (yes, Michigan) tomorrow.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
WOCN11 CWTO 111359
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada
Sunday 11 March 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Parry Sound - Muskoka
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
=new= Algonquin
=new= Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Well above seasonal temperatures this week

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An unseasonably strong and persistent upper ridge of high pressure
over the Southern United States will bring a warm week to Southern
Ontario. Temperatures are forecast to be generally 10 to 15 degrees
above normal values for the next several days.

Normal high temperature values at this time of year range from
Plus 5 at Windsor to plus 1 near Georgian Bay. Plus 4 is the normal
high for Toronto and London while plus 2 is normal for Ottawa.

Furthermore, a few records are expected to be reached or broken at
times in most places. Record highs this week are quite variable
ranging from 15 to 21 in Toronto, from 16 to 23 in London, and
From 11 to 19 in Ottawa.

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54353
Quoting KeyWestSun:
Not an everyday occurrence that we get to talk about wild weather in Hawaii. 3" hail! Goodness. And some of those rainfall totals are amounts associated with Monsoons. Wow.

Great blog, great pictures, great entry. Thanks, Dr. M. :) Enjoy the rest of your weekend.


Remember though, parts of Hawaii are really wet! Its just most people take vacations to the drier sides of mountains... Personally I would rather take a vacation to the wet and rainy jungle areas in Hawaii :)


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
Spanish farmers and ranchers struggle with the driest winter in at least 70years. Those in Aragon -- which includes the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza -- will lose around 1.3billion euros ($1.7billion) this season due to the lack of rain.

The Sotonera reservoir, one of the biggest in the region, has dropped to 40 percent of its capacity.

"I am 50 and I have never seen anything like this. It has not rained since October," said Fernando Regano, a farmer...in the province of Huesca. The average [yearly] consumption of water per hectare of land should be between 7,500 and 8,000 cubic metres [equivalent to 29.5to31.5inches of precipitation] but this year it has been just 2,100 cubic metres per hectare [equivalent to 8.3inches]

The drought has also caused habitual summer forest fires to come early: they have already ravaged hundreds of hectares in the north.
That's very sad. but, of course, it's not confined to Spain:

Mexico withers under worst drought in 71 years; Country's extreme conditions could cause widespread hunger for years to come
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
138 CanesfanatUT "I'll ask my question from the next to last post of the prior blog.
Thought I read that the Sahel region of Africa was experiencing drought currently.
"

You remembered correctly. Call for urgent action to prevent humanitarian emergency: Levels of malnutrition in areas of Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and northern Senegal are becoming dangerously high...hovering between a rate of 10% and 15%.
Some areas have exceeded 15%, which is considered the emergency threshold by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Among the indicators used to determine famine conditions are when acute malnutrition rates exceed 30% and when recorded deaths [from starvation alone] are more than two per 10,000 people a day.
...Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger have already declared emergencies and called for international assistance. ...more than 13 million people are at risk of hunger in the Sahel, with more than 10 million now considered food-insecure. More than 1 million children are at risk of severe malnutrition.
The situation in the region is being blamed on a mix of drought, high food prices and conflict.

"Does that not lead to a suppressed Cape Verde season??"

That was the conventional wisdom: ie apparently the correlation was high enough that hurricane pre-season forecasters took the Sahel and SaharanAirLayer into account when making their hurricane predictions.
HOWEVER Dr.Gray, highly respected senior member of the Klotzbach&Gray tropical weather team, noticed sometime around 5years*ago that SAL conditions had lost any useful correlation with the Atlantic hurricane season circa ?1996? and decided to drop the SAL when modeling upcoming hurricane seasons.
Near as I can tell (from the lack of mention), other pre-season forecasters have done the same.

* Not certain of dates, but I believe Dr.Masters discussed it in one of his earlier WUnderground blogs.
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All phase diagrams indicate this is non-tropical, cold core.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay...well where is it????

Far to the east of Bermuda.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I recommend making an account with MetEd. You can learn a whole bunch of stuff from there.
I will. Ty.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awaiting Invest 91L?

Okay...well where is it????
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later guys...going to watch spanish league football(soccer)
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Tornado Watch #71 issued:





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 71
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SERN
TX AS THE SRN END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
TX. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWD
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION...WITH SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST KHGX VWP INDICATES STRONG
LOW- AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOCKWISE TURNING
HODOGRAPH FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES
TO DEVELOP. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NEWD WITH ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...WEISS
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just noticed this while shopping for RAM.



Are you kidding me?!?!


And yet people still buy it.
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 945
Awaiting Invest 91L?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay so it's been a year since that Japan tsunami/earthqauke(well it's actually the other way around).That town near the plant is still abandon.Their are cows running free around the town and it's just a sad sight.

Yeah, extremeky sad..just goes to show that no one can truely prepare for such a massive earthquake
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a troubling trend:

3 Ways Home Insurers Charge More, Cover Less
http://www.smartmoney.com/spend/real-estate/home- insurers-charge-more-cover-less-1331248277175/

What used to be standard on most home policies now requires supplemental insurance, experts say.... ....Damage from wind, hail and sinkholes has been stripped from many basic homeowner policies. .....
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 440
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


As of what is occuring right now with the colder sst's in the MDR that equals less fuel to the systems,the West African drought that equals less Tropical Waves and a continuation of a positive NAO which means higher pressures,all of that shows that is becomming more probable of a majority of the systems that may form to do so closer to land masses. Of course,things may change down the road,but that is what is going on at the moment.

Ok, thanks for the info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay so it's been a year since that Japan tsunami/earthqauke(well it's actually the other way around).That town near the plant is still abandon.Their are cows running free around the town and it's just a sad sight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

Wow! That is exremely bad...I hope they get some well needed rain!
Do you think that we may have more impacts?


As of what is occuring right now with the colder sst's in the MDR that equals less fuel to the systems,the West African drought that equals less Tropical Waves and a continuation of a positive NAO which means higher pressures,all of that shows that is becomming more probable of a majority of the systems that may form to do so closer to land masses. Of course,things may change down the road,but that is what is going on at the moment.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14317
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Were can I learn to read a "hodo". Thank you.

I recommend making an account with MetEd. You can learn a whole bunch of stuff from there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
In current time...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is in 240 hours (the big event I've been talking about). It's been pushed back some in time, but for anybody that knows how to read a hodo, this literally spells doom.



(From 0Z GFS)
Were can I learn to read a "hodo". Thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is in 240 hours (the big event I've been talking about). It's been pushed back some in time, but for anybody that knows how to read a hodo, this literally spells doom.



(From 0Z GFS)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
NIce line of T'storms about to move through Houston. A lot of lightning and possible small hail with this line.


Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Quoting PlazaRed:
So now according to this article; they are not only stating that the ice has largely gone but also that there might now be increased evaporation from the great lakes as a result of it.
What with no snow or rain are they heading for as US version of the Aral Sea?
Link to copy and paste:-

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking /chi-great-lakes-ice-weather-climate-change,0,2259 584.story




Ice cover on the Great Lakes has decreased by 71% over the past four decades according to a new study published in February, 2012 in the Journal of Climate.

The Great Lakes, located in eastern North America, contain about 20% of the world’s surface supply of freshwater. The ice cover that forms over the Great Lakes every winter plays a critical role in regulating water levels, structuring the lakes ecosystems and impacting the regional economies that depend on cargo shipments and hydropower generation.

The scientists found that all of the Great Lakes have lost ice over the past 38-year period. Lake Ontario had the greatest amount of ice cover loss (88%), while Lake St. Clair lost the least amount of ice cover (38%). Overall, the total loss for Great Lakes ice cover was 71%.

In fact, ice cover has been so low this year on Lake Erie that officials began removing the ice boom that prevents large chunks of ice from flowing out into the Niagara River on February 28, 2012. This is the earliest date for removal since the boom was first installed in the mid 1960s. The ice boom acts to prevent ice damage to hydropower intake equipment. Early boom removal is our harbinger of an early spring in western New York. Dare I say that I think the groundhog was wrong this year?



http://earthsky.org/earth/north-americas-great-la kes-are-losing-ice

What does this mean for tornado and flood events? Certainly going to be a lot more heat stored in the Great Lake water and a lot more moisture in the air.

With less ice to melt will the Lakes area start warming earlier in the year leading to longer, hotter summers?

How might the physics of all this work out, you folks who know a lot more about how weather works than I do?

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting aspectre:
Spanish farmers and ranchers struggle with the driest winter in at least 70years. Those in Aragon -- which includes the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza -- will lose around 1.3billion euros ($1.7billion) this season due to the lack of rain.

The Sotonera reservoir, one of the biggest in the region, has dropped to 40 percent of its capacity.

"I am 50 and I have never seen anything like this. It has not rained since October," said Fernando Regano, a farmer...in the province of Huesca. The average [yearly] consumption of water per hectare of land should be between 7,500 and 8,000 cubic metres [equivalent to 29.5to31.5inches of precipitation] but this year it has been just 2,100 cubic metres per hectare [equivalent to 8.3inches]

The drought has also caused habitual summer forest fires to come early: they have already ravaged hundreds of hectares in the north.

Wow! That is exremely bad...I hope they get some well needed rain!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is true and because of that,I think the 2012 season will be dominated by homegrown systems. Adding to the colder MDR is the West African drought and the Positive NAO.

Do you think that we may have more impacts?
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Latest tornado probabilities:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is true and because of that,I think the 2012 season will be dominated by homegrown systems. Adding to the colder MDR is the West African drought and the Positive NAO.


So sad...i like my Cape Verde systems!
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.