Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

From the forecast for my area in N GA:


Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79.

Here come the bugs and the pollen. My house is already beseiged by hundreds of bees around our bushes. Those disappering honeybees seem to be back. Im a goner

Yah noticing that also! cant believe we already have 80's in the forecast. Who knows we could get in the 90's if all of this craziness continues.

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Regardless, this is only March and the conditions could very well change but right now I do not think this hurricane season will feature as many named storms as the last two have, but could even if the parameters are right, be much more memorable.

In your blog, what do the above statement mean?

Not him but he is saying that we could have major hurricanes hitting the US if the conditions are right. Therefor making it a more memorable season.

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Regardless, this is only March and the conditions could very well change but right now I do not think this hurricane season will feature as many named storms as the last two have, but could even if the parameters are right, be much more memorable.

In your blog, what do the above statement mean?

He's saying that even though we will not have as active as a hurricane season, with close to home formations more likely, this season could be more memorable than the past two.

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Couldn't the potential for that to occur be in any hurricane season?

Um yes. He was just stating it.

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Regardless, this is only March and the conditions could very well change but right now I do not think this hurricane season will feature as many named storms as the last two have, but could even if the parameters are right, be much more memorable.

In your blog, what does the above statement mean?

After reading, what I believe he is saying is that there will be fewer storms, but those storms could have a big impact on the United States. I am thinking the same, it has been too long since a bad hurricane (excluding Irene, because I am talking about a Major hurricane) has impacted the Southeast. These GOM temps scare me just because of how warm they are for this time of year and that it isnt even close to hurricane season yet.

THAT BEING SAID: I hope his turns out to be uneventful in terms of landfalling systems but having plenty of "fish storms" that look great but affect nobody.

current SDO Image,enlarged





Added 3/12/2012 @ 12:05 UTC

Incoming Shock Detected / G2 Geomagnetic Storm

ACE detected an incoming shock this morning after 08:00 UTC. The Solar Wind jumped to near 600 km/s and a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse measuring 96 nT was detected. A G2 Geomagnetic Storm (KP=6) is now in progress. Initially a CME impact was predicted for late tonight. The expanding cloud could have arrived much earlier than expected, or this shock may be unrelated. More information to follow.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6

Threshold Reached: 2012 Mar 12 1155 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

Observed: 2012 Mar 12 0921 UTC
Deviation: 96 nT
Station: Boulder

Quoting KeyWestSun:

I believe his reasoning why he or she thinks the U.S. and other mainland will be more affected this upcoming season is based on atmospheric conditions, jet, and steering patterns--rather than probability and chances of past seasons.

I think that we both have the same idea of a season with more US impact but less storms overall, but for different reasons. Of course, mine aren't scientifically based and I have no data to back them up with, but my gut is one of my better forecasting tools IMHO.

Quoting Neapolitan:
From HAMWeather, look at some of these forecast anomalies for this Friday. These aren't actual temperatures, but departures from normal. Note the large area of >20 and even >30 departures--some of them close to 40 degrees above normal.

This is more of what is "normal" or "average for the fussy. :)
I put in the bold for emphasis.

Link
The Weather History for March 11th

3/11/2009
Blizzard Coyote, one of the worst since the 1997 winters. A strong low pressure system brought widespread blizzard conditions to much of the Red River Valley 11 March 2009 as a surge of arctic air spilled into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The blizzard, which the Grand Forks Herald dubbed Blizzard Coyote, was likely the worst to hit the southern Valley in terms of visibility since the winter of 1996/1997. The Grand Forks WFO issued blizzard warnings for most of the Valley except for the far north.

The Weather History for March 12th

3/12/1997
A band of heavy snow fell across southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Lisbon received a foot of new snow, while Litchville, Pelican Rapids and Cayuga each had 10 inches, Blue Grass reporting 9 inches, and Fergus Falls and Rothsay 8 inches. Northerly winds also gusted to 35 mph, producing near blizzard conditions.

Instead to day as I write this, it is raining. This kind of warm and rain I associate with April, not March.

Neo, you are good at finding records, if you have a moment, how many times has ND/MN had rain in the first two weeks of March in the last 30 years?

There is a line of showers and thunderstorms across northeastern Illinois at this time. As it moves eastward into a more favorable environment, storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Link to my new blog concerning Invest 95S and 96P...if anybody wants to check it out :D

Click on the radar image to go on to the next blog.